HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Item - 2021-05-18 - Number 6.1 - Presentation - STOP Data ,isTic 6.1
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Statistical Transparency of Policing (STOP) Program
Analytical Approach and Review of Results for Lake Oswego
Ken Sanchagrin, JD PhD
Executive Director
Oregon Criminal Justice Commission
18 May 2021
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
HB 235 ~ STOP
Background and Introduction
i....ti"IJIt,I:UATEXE AaRa711t1.T-20l7 EamY..,.aam ■ HB 2355 (2017) required law enforcement to
$�2355 report on all discretionary traffic and
Iawdaeed end printed .want to Hattie Ride 12.00.Pna.aaian f,1ed at the e.g..of Attorney
� ''n'Mn�°Mnm' pedestrian stops.
CHAPTER
AN ACT
Manna to Public eafetr creating n.peoaiRanrt amending ORS 61.050.18191A 181920,181.92•. STOP Data Elements
197.898.161.570.161.816.161A.410.221.899.418C.NIL 128.478.42812211.476.005.475.152.471.524
475474.475.654.175.571.475.551 a.d 176.891;and deriarrng en.n,r g..ry.
Be 1i Enalated by the Peep&el the&alt a°regent
Agency Name Gender
1.11yi:T111i4 1.As taxed in arc LA I. d AI thir 2,,I7 An.
[11•L 1daw. .rrrm.nt agen.y tor....ul x ninny employing law,.d..r.•rment..thrw.e la.
can.,criminal low.
f21 9.a. air.,orn.n,t Africa,,,wean.a mrmhrr of She f,n.gon S ,...,ire.a whrriR wr Stop Date/Time Reason for the Stop
▪ 01- fti.ar-LIItL.led P.d..trian stay" a dttt•ntlen.•f a pedn eniui by a law
.nh.r.-ema,t ulTit-.r...d...e...iat..l with a rail Ur task-..when the d.lentien recall.in x
rinntion.a ual w urrle.I Ihr=arl1Mrian'w hotly car property.The term. an orwnmxm.
-.Aid.yn•Iy In.l.dentlai.f..r mull.,rrrfrhr^perfumed at the i.mint of entry In ur rail
• n1..I1Rl a.AellMllhh.,
Location ount Outcome ofStop
— .lff rrr-Initiaied.mill.Mop-me a.,deten:inn or x driver urn m.ol•or whirl t by a
rant.ulcer.nod eon fated will.a.w11 for wrelee.few the tarn......4 i. e.
., ..1.1'.nllati..n.A the nrrg..n Vehiclr CAA .n or
n�m a the new;"`..p..f ei individual a low enfar.mr n naemy n law Type of Stop (Traffic/Ped) Search (YIN)
ftirw.ern rurpi.boo..1 lh,met i•'IAu..I'.having.44.I..d.Pn•.�i.i��n..f Ixw,he...i
nd WlAwxl'.rral�.r Iw.•'•-I r'•'•I aRr•race.tdMkllY.t.•Ie.r, ay�nal•.Agin.Inm
Ds
/_Illt ali . drr hl1.,IR2•,wvguwl..rin.uuob,p5Rlr.1 wmllwsk.u.rdi0l...."h..md.+.b...or
C4aiwphiIily.nni,a the agerur e. ..rri..r it anlnir.w•rualwc•t derrlpt......r inre.n.u.i..n re
Paled..an id. 1in..'ea-w 4.nanl...awti,.n Ai w new wi 1,,P 1•f lam" Codet
nrlentau,an^Nu Ow meannlnp,ear,.unat Lunn In nru:171.1ian. 7 ■■ •
IN—.
II1 Ho Iw1.r than July I.21I1a•tl.e i/rrge..l'riminwlry'.aaire 1'cm.mivic..,in Residential Zip t/ Search Reason
. a AA ith,he Ilrywrin.nn Xta.r 1'o1Me a..d.lee flrpn Junirr,wh.11 do
11men1 e.lanldard teed m.'ih.rl I..be Lined by Ism Fnf..er.etnen...fiker,le.rea-..nl
nI ia,.Iexeriu, .b... and,•Rlnr.i..illwlnl Ir.tflr 1oi,,I.I... The xiwrnlardhed
IL eµ.thr..I oily gran dno he ref mod ter Ia.r.uwnn"'Lb..n.ulan Ir d mnI""' Race/Ethnicity Search Findings
O ide fora Ihr fed ath mu w he rn..rd..l f.rr eaa-h whip:
' �he clape and lime..f the n..p;
• •'.1 The lorwiI..of lhr riot.:
I
1[nnelwl Il..ar I1Jt LtS..11111 cx,.t.. Age Was an Arrest Made?
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
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.• • • _1 BACKGROUND • , . ________
THREE TIER APPROACH
OREGON STOP PROGRAM
ANALYTICAL APPROACH
Iffk
till Er=
OD
HB 2355 T P
Background and Introduction
Selected Traffic Stop Benchmark Data (CT) • Research Challenges — 30 Years of
Stops Pop Stop Research
Department Count Pct. Pct. Ratio ■ Quality analysis of stop data is difficult and
Berlin 1,902 22.29% 12.89% 1.73 time consuming.
• No analysis is perfect and all approaches have
Branford 1,547 11.96% 13. 12% 0.91 strengths and weaknesses.
Danbury 2,036 34.77% 31 .97% 1.09 • No statistical method can "prove"
East Hampton 185 2. 16% 5.82% 0.37 discrimination.
• Mostly, research has used benchmark
analyses to determine if there are disparities.
• But, academic research demonstrates that
benchmark based analyses are often biased
and/or invalid.
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
HB 23i : - S
Background and Introduction
■ Research Challenge: What causes the gap(s) in
stop rates and the Census population?
Unknown
Selected Traffic Stop Benchmark Data (CT)
Stops Driving Behavior
Pop Differences
Department Count Pct. Pct. Diff ' , do
Berlin 1,902 22.29% 12.89% 9.40 1.73 Racial Profiling
Branford 1,547 11 .96% 13. 12% 1 . 16 1 .91 1, W
Danbury 2,036 34.77% 31.97% 2.80 1.0' Officer
East Hampton 185 2. 16% 5.82% 3.66 0.37 Deployment Patterns A
Differences in
Exposure to the Police
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
(rAltir—
. 1 yi I - 'r
90.2% of Lake Oswego
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jI Jobs Counts by Places[Cities,CDPs,etc.]
17 lb°P6.-1 I lir d.../ f` 4 ¢.Y jw t Where Workers Live-All Jobs
(4112- 4 sole
=f if.'r
4Count Share
ors �f� a r 41 o''tI .1. etc.)All aces Cities,CDPs, 748 100.0%
; = `4t —� +-❑Portland city,OR 4,932 21.7%
r ❑Lake Oswego city,OR 2,232 9.8%
WORK TRAVEL 1:' z.' ---- Pllgard city,OR 1,172 5.2%
-� ■Beaverton city,OR 1,159 5.1%
R,a- ae, IN '`--;..r ; ❑West Linn city,OR 717 32%
PATTERNS I _ — ■Hillsboro city,OR 23 2.7%
t ■Tualatin city,OR 623 2.8%
f�' �r ■Oregon City city,OR 443 1.9%
Lake Oswego, OR } ❑Aloha CDP,OR 433 1.9%
1 Y ❑Wilsonville city,OR 433 1.9%
/ All Other Locations 9,959 43.8%
Source:US Census "On the Map"Data Tool(https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/)
of VImpactID- 1 9• The initial stages of the COVID- 19 pandemic 2019-2020 Lake Oswego PD Stops
led to a severe reduction in stops across the 700
state.
600
• In Lake Oswego, stops fell by 72% in April
2020 compared to February 2020. Even with a 500
rebound in May, the numbers did not reach a
400
pre-pandemic levels.
g 300
• COVID- 19 has also had an impact on the
driving population which could change its 200
racial composition. 100
0
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
Basic Statistics for Lake Oswego
2019-2020 STOP Data for Lake Oswego • Traffic stops were the vast majority of the
STOP Data Census total (98.75%). For 2019-2020, only 68
pedestrian stops were recorded.
Race/Ethnicity Num. Pct. Pct.
White 4,542 83.7% 82.8% • Stop Reasons:
Black 174 3.2% 1 .0% • Moving Violation: 59.3%
Latinx 346 6.4% 5.2% • Equipment, Seatbelt, Cell Phone: 28.4%
• Registration/License: 9.4%
Asian or PI 166 3. 1% 6.1% • Other/Criminal: 2.9%
Native American 77 1.4% 1 .1%
Middle Eastern 122 2.2% --
Two+ Races -- -- 4.5%
Total 5,429 100% 100%
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
Analysis of Oregon STOP Data — The Decision to Stop a Driver
Black Latinx White
Morning Analysis Evening Analysis Morning Analysis Evening Analysis Morning Analysis Evening Analysis • Veil of Darkness Model
Window Window Window Window Window Window
9 47 20 61 213 976 ■ Compares stops made in the daylight to stops
11PM made in darkness.
Time 9P; (' • ,: - .. - .- .• • • 1 • , • If stops are being made in a race-neutral
of 8 PM 7PM •'r= • • ••ip• "::..,;t; + . ; • .:• manner stop rates should be almost identical
Day 5- ... • 'w j •
• =.;T,•.i ~i ' . ` ;•. ., and model results for daylight/darkness should
• not be statistically significant.
3PM
2PM • To ensure that similar driving populations are
zPM Each dot is a stop, color coded by
11AM race/ethnicityexamined, only stops made during the morning
10 AM and evening are included in the models.
9AM
8AM
7AM • • •• : ~•
Time8AM • •. ••r; :. •' • i • • • -,r r •
5AM .
•• 1 • ♦ •
• • • ■.
• • • •
of 4AM
Year 2AM .1 •:•• •....144.):r_;� •r 4; F• a .�• • • • .
lAM � • Ng.
•a•��f�ti�M.a •
.
1 Ah1
\ I __ __ =ug'19 Sep'19 Dc['19 Nov'19 Dec'19 Ja n'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 Jul 20
-' RIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
HB 2355 T P
Analysis of Oregon STOP Data — The Decision to Stop a Driver
Black Latinx White
• Like many Tier 2 agencies CJC had
Morning Analysis Evening Analysis Morning Analysis Evening Analysis Morning Analysis Evening Analysis ,
Window Window Window Window Window Window 9 47 20 61 213 976 insufficient data to run the full VOD model.
11PM VI •IS t{c..AC! t.•4:'...N.r.y.. , .S.
iij .›"4 •_ ■ We elected to publish basic comparisons of
10 M • •_1! e •• ..•
} ' » 't.t 1: '! • • e • • stops made in the light/dark during the inter-
SPM • 1• • y = y .� = • • i
6 ' � '� ' j ' ;�ti 4 _:¢� • • ,;;,; . .R: � twilight windows.
it
4PM • 'T
it:r ell■ •Nr•' o' •-, 1 :'• •3 I20 r a•t•. • �. . 'i •f k .
3PM Racial/Ethnic Group Stops Dark Light
2PM
1PM Black 5.0% 4.1%
12PM
11 AM
LOAM Latinx 6.3% 6.4%
9AM
SAM • O` 4 : • . f
•
O.
• SO
6AM :` • ..• ••{,_ ; :•_;••: ••• 111
• • . .. •' ; •. . • • In future reports, CJC plans to analyze multi-
5 AM • • • •
4AM • • •• . ••S • ` , .. • , •, . . , .. year data so we can examine smaller
3AM .•M • ►3. .• .,.S+ a.• •r A ••t 4 • •\. . • • ■ • •
2AM •R •••4,1 •:.=' .1.r :.•• • �� ...�: ••:`�h• �e•%• • .a agencies using the full VOD model.
vola
12AM
Jul'19 Aug'19 Sep'19 Dct'19 Nov'19 Dec'39 Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May 20 Jun'20 JJI'%a
_, JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
HB 2355 T P
Post-Stop Outcomes
Stop Outcomes Lake Oswego Tier 2 Range ■ Post Stop Outcomes: Who is searched,
Nothing/Warning 47.0% 31.4% to 93.2% arrested, or cited?
Citation 52.3% 4.5% to 64.0% • Propensity Score Matching:
Search 0.1% 0.1% to 5.9% • Propensity score matching analysis mimics
Arrest 0.5% 0.4% to 7.0% important aspects of an RCT in cases where
random assignment is not possible.
List of Variables Used for Matching • In effect, you are able to balance your data so
you can test for race-based differences.
Age Gender
■ For these analyses, we test for differences
Agency Holiday across race in citations, searches, and arrests.
Stop Reason Stop Type
Daylight Daily Stop Volume
Day of the Week Time of Stop
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
Analyses StopData
Post Stop Outcomes: Searches, Arrests, Citations
■ In the main body of the 2019-2020 STOP
Agency Race/Ethnicity Actual Predicted Report, CJC only reported results for
Citation Black 46.2% 40.3% agencies with statistically significant
Latinx 57.0% 58.4% disparities.
Black 0.6% .9%
Search Latinx 0.3% /o\4% • For Lake Oswego, no statistically
Black 1.2% 1. % significant disparities were found.
Arrest
Latinx 0.6% 0.
• For this presentation, all of the results are
presented even though they were not
The actual citation
The percentage we'd statistically significant.
percentage in the STOP expect if our stopped
data for Latinx individuals Latinx individuals were
White.
HB 2355 T P
Analysis of Oregon STOP Data
"Hit Rate" Test 2019-2020 Tier 1 Hit Rates
• Search success rates should be close to equal across race if 100%
the decision to search is based on race neutral factors.
90%
• If hit rates are consistently lower for one racial group, then that
group is being searched more often than success rates would 80%
warrant. 70% •
Lake Oswego Data
• LOPD reported 20 searches in 2019-2020 (0.37% of stops 50°'°
resulted in a search). p 40% �
• Of those 20 searches, 7 resulted in a hit (35%). 30% •
•
20%
•
10%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
White Hit Rate
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON
Questions
■ Contact Info:
Ken Sanchagrin
Executive Director
Oregon Criminal Justice Commission
ken.sanchagringoregon.gov
971-719-6000
CRIMINAL JUSTICE COMMISSION • STATE OF OREGON