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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Item - 2023-04-18 - Number 9.2 - Presentation - Housing Needs Analysis and Housing Production Strategy 9.2 COMMUNITY OtiA EQ , DEVELOPMENT CR) \\L!\.....„.‘„.....� o � REGO� Housing Needs Analysis and Housing Production Strategy City Council Study Session April 18, 2023 011.1/ io fs i .:Agenda �• eF . �Ar A e_ . . .i,..1:137: 117 I.. Public Engagement Summary -; = • r fi _ ;:l ' ' y �--i„ : 2. Overview of Process = . :. = ,. 3. Housing Needs — Brendan lid ;s{ `.f • � ,.. • ea Buckley, Johnson Economics is ..z. ._._1,. . _..}, 4. Buildable Land — Andrew Parish, MIG y .' •�i• 1 I }: it lr f (�ig i . n ., , 4. Next Steps . - __:�, i• s 4 Public Engagement • Virtual Neighborhood Forum - Thursday April 6 • Online open house linked on the project website . Will be open through 4/21 . Please share with your networks ! Community members are encouraged to provide feedback and review materials in detail at the Online Open House https://www.ci .oswego.or. us/planning/pp-22-0005- housing-needs-and-production-strategies Overview of Process Overview of Process Housing Needs Projection (demand) Residential Land Needs Analysis Housing Strategy 11111 . (reconcile demand (approaches to and supply) address needs) Buildable Lands Inventory (land supply) Project Timeline 2022 2023 2024 TASKS Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Project Kickoff Housing Needs Analysis C Residential Buildable Lands Inventory Residential Lands Needs Analysis Final Housing Needs Analysis Report Housing Strategies Alternatives Housing Strategies Recommendations Housing Production Strategies Report Engagement � _101, Describe RLNA and introduce tem. "2 CommunityEn a ement1 Last Update:Dec2022 HPS Task Force and Stakeholder Meetings Public Open House/Online Event Planning Commission/City Council Meeting Housing Needs Analysis Housing Needs Analysis Data Sources Population and Growth Market and Other Data • 2020 Census • Regional Multiple • American Community Listing Service Survey • 3rd Party Rental and • Metro Urban Growth Sales providers Report • City/County/State • PSU Population Center • Homeless data . I Housing NeedsAnalysis k -E,----:‘, :- ,. Methodology i' • Assess current housing and demographic conditions e ; �L , . .,.,` • Assess current and future (20-year) housing needs R • Demographically driven projections = _' I • Population growth forecast (Metro), 414.; - and local trends forecast __._ , .� • Identify needs by tenure, price/rent, and unit type ,,� f t4 �� .C.i 7'. . x:if';`f ?ate•" � 1 . - n' ' - - � x tom,- 1,442, ., ,.•,� am. ' Population Growth 2000 2023 2043 20-Year (Census) (Estimate) (Projection) Growth Population 35,278 41,550 41,961 +411 (1%) Households 14,824 17,481 19,298 +1,817 (10%) Housing Units 15,668 18,345 20,313 +1,968 (11%) • Forecasted annual growth rate (Metro): 0.05% • Average household size: 2.4 people > 2.16 people • Assumed "stable" housing vacancy: 5% Income Growth ili 2000 2023 (Census) (Estimate) Change Median Household Income $71,600 $123,300 72% Per Capita Income $42,200 $74,600 77% • Median 40% higher than Clackamas County ($88,500) • And 75% higher than the state median ($70,000) • Income growth has outpaced inflation Commuting Trends _., _ ..; .:...:.„ . , A ?Off r.,,,N - lard _ J = How,. 0,„,4 - isweip • _ . _ 20,900 2,250 15,800 Live and work Work in Lake Oswego, Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere in Lake Oswego work e' . Illkill lsewhere 2ri#��a den#�r - andiri Durham Aa'll-: "Yaf: - 9^°L / 10% r _I-- 12% / 88% A411 tii ft. • Ratio of 1.3 jobs per household • Average of 1.0 working member per household Current Housing Conditions Lake Oswego, Oregon • Tenure : 71% owners; 29% renters • 84% of owned units = 3+ bedrooms Single $1 Detached 18% • 76% of rented units = 2 or fewer Single L 10°% Number of Bedrooms Attached6% 8% 2% 0% ~ Duplex Studio c 5% 119; 1 bed 30' 3- or 4-plex ' . o4 23% 2 beds 13% Owners 111 - 3 beds 6% Renters 4 beds 5+ Units MFR 29% III 5+ beds 0% 20% 40%% 50?c 80% 100% Share of Units Current Housing Conditions Age of Housing Stock 30% 2�} pp 5 a ■ Owner 5f4 .3V.3f4 120 20% 20% Renter •47 O a 17 o 0 15 a o 10 10 % 8 8 7% C▪fl 70 5 5 5% 5 5 a 5 o 1 ■ ' 4 ` 19 'fir • •�' 16 Year House Built 20-Year Housing Forecast • New Units Needed : 1,968 units New Units Needed • +11% growth in inventory Single Fam. Detached 760 • Increase in middle housing Single Fam. Attached 220 y ,. y a__ r� 2-unit 104 - - - 3- or 4-plex 205 II 1 ri 11 . i . _ 5+ Units MFR 677 7, Manuf. home 3 I.i 1 ItiT I lig 4,, I rai i- 1 Qo Q• QI c) C) Housing Units 20-Year Housing Forecast Income Level Household Income Segment Total Share Common Housing Product i (Rounded)* Extremely Low Inc. < 30% AMI < $27,500 205 10% Government-subsidized; Voucher; Transitional Very Low Income 30% - 50% AMI $27.5k - $55k 212 11% Aging/substandard rentals; Government-subsidized; Voucher Market apartments; Manufactured Low Income 50% - 80% AMI $55k - $73k 263 13% homes; Plexes; Aging single-detached Single-detached homes; Townhomes; Middle Income 80% - 120% AMI $73k - $110k 319 16% Small homes; New apartments Upper Income > 120% AMI > $110,000 970 49% Single-detached homes; Townhome; Condominiums; New Apartments TOTAL: 1,968 100% Housing Development Private market development • Owner and rental housing at a wide range of prices • Typically, does not address needs of households with the lowest incomes (particularly for new housing) • Sells or rents at prices that reflect costs of construction and what market will bear Non-profit/subsidized housing • Typically, addresses needs of low-income, very-low and extremely low-income households, 60% AMI and lower. • Requires a variety of public subsidies & other strategies to sell or rent at affordable price points Questions and Discussion Current and Future Housing Needs Draft Buildable Land Inventory Inventory Steps r - i STEP 1: STEP 2: STEP 3: STEP 4: Identify Remove Vacant and Net Buildable Residential Developed Area and Land Constraints Parcels Unit Capacity Step1 : 1 enti YResidential • 1 d t ; i `r STEPHENSON ST '.� A t'<SS H kl I. NESI a. F I Q n I � _ - 5 --(7 MELROSE 5T �..r� r �!� 44 COUn,TRrCGBRDo �` � to 4� - 1 KRUSE WAY 4� 4 r A 1., MEADOW'S lip . p-. I 2 i SW 60N1TA RD101 �la '4*' ¢ a f A i% 1 .\'''C', . i . -"Idle a II ce 0 0� WE`1'�BV"V D Y RNE 4 ❑pPEQ..1,„P, SNORE BILp CrDy4. .\ I t• 5❑ck 414C0-11 ik, . . ! u r ,SrGREfIJT}3EE PQ 64•� a��GE' •. �� k w P�0❑Kp 5 BERG15: 9 `0 r 30y� .P c Ir /� y �G I i ,A ¢❑�Cf iypy 1 e J.: r ct)r r rt G� i tiQ rp L� C i _ IF c?'a''❑S ' osEgf OF CHILDS RD y �yT [� � 1 1 i .h j' 4d 0 I I. Miles` '" - 0R f C'_ -y. 0 0.25 0.5 1 ® Study Area C . Lake Oswego City Limits a Portland 9 I 214; 4_i Community C- / College--Sylva'' T yan Creek i ? l d State Natural ra I E,� '���t 5• PNA a R R,7 5 1../. s san_,44 pillik ingririi 141 1: 6,--t PNA _ Milwaukie ar in _ i eF ,. �E R i• ♦ Heights Ar Tigard 411141, ¢ R 5 Rao I F f� �• i��MI c A+. 11 Oak Grove L HC R-5 R ' r J �� r,. f R-6 rr ,rvie �� v: 0QR-3 0,4. PNA - PLC D R 1O ij 4 ';: m Bonita y R•10 R 7 5 • •^��f C} SW 6anrta Rd a wry 11 R•as rr ill' S- g or PNA R 7-$ R ° • i -�.. y ",' ..a L SP GCHil R-�5 r PNA �'I R-7F5 y .� I •'se 7 I� ''■ R-7' SW Durham Rd I *� Rio /! le - '-- , 5 R-75 Pf r'1._ -,—-- Concord ockte k - '- PNA/ R �5 - • 'lir �! inllFy ii. 1 Cu,1•i_'I I. rl v R-io LI,i- I L R-io } dv alatin ' i ktry Cluh I p grR_,H5. —: R 35 n I Jer Iljr 'Z-3 Esri.NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO.Esri,HERE, Tualatin Rivergrove Garmin,SafeGraph,GkoTechnologies,Inc,METI/NASA,USGS,Bureau al Land Management,EPA,NIPS, T L1S17A Mary S.Young Lake Oswego - Buildable Lands Inventory - Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend i0 Lake Oswego I=1 HC —1 PNA R•7.5 I AYER 0 IP =R-0 =R•W ICI I I MC I R-10 ©SP R&D l i NC L R-15 n WLG OC - _. EC E NCJR-O IE R-2 =WLG R-2.5 CI ECfR-0 OC =R-3 ®WLG RMU LE fMU II MR-) I R-5 I=<aiI other values> 0 0.25 0,5 1 I C GC 0 PF =R-6 Miles 1 ' " ��� I ® Study Area �canrtrw� ��l i�,� I , � Lake Oswego City en :70 Limits x..; 1.„7 _ ff+ - :►i -_� f,;z„ r Land Type tflinilt lil � ,� + Mit =t! �„,,,R, '1'�+ Residential f T Mixed Use Iiiiii4144/Vi, t`t�.,_Q PIIWIA211-1.pyAle � Public/Other L r ► v , n,t�R,., ,•.� II if , iodri N i f 8 • OakOr A - i 1I k Mr I r # ins" :.dii 1 , Rd 'III imA4il-a 11imj41 m-mraii.....fi....l1t.r,•i,:. _c..ft tni.l6t 111 4I11m11.IIi T+ "� i r� is ,ryr , , ' ,,mow P� r/`,`1 .' W 1 risitI>p slew- :A.,. 4111111pariliM..•111114,Wole 7- , AlliiraL AT Ar elf � AL, II�� r►' �'� III � T/17��� 4.liti) , N 10. 111P ir 4011.4rair. Ll ' , I 1-Wialk 'i % Itl Arno-1*k Ai. I; ;marl+ 0.~ligen-PI Au, " lit 0 ‘. If--II. fq Alto 1 , __ .1' 1. ".- . , ,,,, t• I'1 4$:um .11„,NI__ ...,_ r bit* Ific4x , 4 ' Amar:"§ ::,94,11,Af 1. . " vili . - i .411'140 sty A-r-05 ,,;,,fitr!M I nil iii MT., - 1:ive '4 „ri ...ERALisktip p, .11.‘ pr- - AS r i : ! �,A £ Clir\ t fir �Wvergry ' ' ' ��I - �; y77_1 IMiles '" N°eEG-�' 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type I Prepared by El ® r I Step2 : DevelopmentConstraints v ..,..4 1 sh " Study Area 'rr rr sw sTEP�E vso?v sT , ��y Ro l.� Lake Oswego City � _ 1 . �� TO �,�p sF�� p Limits _IrFri FSSF KwY ° E Major Roads TO/1 �� *'"� / o Taxlots r il ie 1 _ - :w ` : _'':i6 - GreenwayMgmt. +r• rA • �Li f'JI°.R`� li u " ",� Overlay District i MELR 7 r- 4_ o Slopes>25% LI3 �iJ F '�- --1 a1 FEMA Floodplain yL 1 �t -� L el �.-,yE(iB RD a -Y if_C� S Not,in £ L� a 1�r®+ V 1 =�. ,� • ,��• Sensitive Lands Overlay l� �� ) r- n-2. ,�:;.1"' ' ^; g� 1 Habitat Benefit Areas -KRUSE WAY _ Q y I ,,, a .. A AV /� MEADOWS R17 a 4 i a$" , fpnn iii "i,�-', w R.r `S *t E 11 a � _f • DO ' y iR- �;4;Oi 31i" f�',��+ C .: (HBA) ,, I r. �1 .7 if,, Cq4'a¢G d .xlllli.:auaV . gS+bulVTgjM g[VD t "• •1iu sw BONITA RD Resource w zFl N > 1 l e-s-s ,.. ►� f t ,.. Conservation Areas 3 a 1 ( 1 -c Eji. ,nib® '� s'r i-- it € z 1 - =—- o die 4 3... , _ (RC) .� 1 .fr.j Resource Protection 1 , U O' E' R 8(V '�1 1 P s QeE� ��Ev NORM _ Areas(RP) jrci n Z 4 ': rrrrttffF SJti p it c �', o GREENTREER0 S O� /LF . 6, • / ���: I �� .� x I vEQ.00Ka JJsi :RD 1 G wAY 0 G7� Q. s '7::: I - CHILDSRp � � j;, j i h 1' A �o v I� -.Ai �.II ' o I Miles tew r y. .1. 0 0.25 05 1 . Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints Step 3 : Development Status • Vacant: Less than $20,000 Improvement Value • Partially Vacant: Lots that have a home but acreage that can reasonably provide more housing. • Developed: All other lots Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land G\,,`�,��/Y +1 i , r• 'r vn,�, ti Study Area Q / � - soN sr '' ` `" Constraints J ,' 1 - i I r SW sTEpHEN - 9 t •f cp i I 1 1 I�1 ;�a :. , {< 7 , d f411 � . . _ '4 a1• -''• 1 � �¢ 4, ` e• ' Development Status 11 fl „ ( -'—''' e c , is. - -41'' . ' i d`'' - I ! try • 4 a I Partially Vacant �r �r /5. Vacant \ s Y'+ J ,�1 /gyp' ~ rt l Ni. F11 r �MELROSE 5T _:/ - , my1 ` + r lino 21 �r tiftig 4�A: ; �4 tiB R 7 • 1,Illm l w. INFO b y S WAY .,/ ' _ fr- I i E- n-A D W S Z aL ! •; v I. !n • . �� -al R4 D •_, .a, j _.V� {r !'z I I i II• �* y �D g f1TAIgr.��VpLL' - 2 I -gg L' • `� SW BONITA RD Q� ,!I`- wt:.'� ,,,4. ., _ r ' •• e' I'n zF I R ,� NQO gi b,/ ., ; { a S • a o , \ x s'Er Z i -� --fin . 1,'. — TcF p��rrV�'T y lip 1 I 1 r, fC {, I ' I1I % 13V ‘1,0. 44NURg48 ... limi I'1 ♦ .ho- �� 11 J IP ,ter D L n.:._ k•P o . \ * q GREE NIT REEIRJ -. °• 2 4- (FRI _ 11 EQ rI � • U �c a • La,m I Al` �+ r i 4�*`i ,�ox N ' _ S BER0S'RD ` '� ` �, T ae ��4� D {. R +� !�` :.Ti i I A I' .. S'tier_ . j 4 100 ,iil I �, a �1■`� ' �:• .l' / p ® f �: { a 'AI r a ' '/ +`'� �S.RD t r I''POScn y O�c A Os�. 1 1' 1 _ �,I�. -'� .�:�r;,�� 3� 1 C H I I RS R R ; >✓ � �1`,Z\L.. ,,��` Z. ` - _ ,,- t, M • Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status Step 4 : Net Buildable Area • Set-asides for new streets and infrastructure : — 20% for vacant property, 0% for partially vacant • Assumed Density based on zoning code provisions Initial Results Table 5. Net Developable Acres of Residential and Mixed Use Land Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 4,413 951 3,547 345 1,218 MixedUse 493 96 399 15 178 Non-Residential 181 21 160 - - Public/Other 3,491 1,309 2,215 - - Total 8,578 2,377 6,320 360 1,396 Additional Capacity: • Remaining Marylhurst University approval: 70 units • Additional Middle Housing Capacity (estimated at 3% of developed lots with single- detached dwellings): 410 Units • Redevelopment on Multifamily and Mixed Use Land: TBD. Further analysis will include a look at "strike price" (current value per square foot), age of structure, and recent trends related to converting office uses to residential uses. • Total Unit Capacity: 1,876 Units Figure 7. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Residential 1,218 EC/R-0 5 R-0 ResultsR-10 215Initial R-10 Comp Plan 468 R-15 114 Additional Capacity: R-3 22 R-5 104 • Remaining Marylhurst University approval: R-7.5 136 70 units R-7.5 Comp Plan 133 • Additional Middle Housing Capacity R-DD 10 (estimated at 3% of developed lots with R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 8 single-detached dwellings): 410 Units Mixed Use 178 • Redevelopment on Multifamily and Mixed CR&D 39 Use Land: TBD. Further analysis will include EC 67 a look at "strike price" (current value per GC 12 square foot), age of structure, and recent NC 23 trends related to converting office uses to NC/R-0 9 residential uses. OC/R-3 5 R-0 8 • Total Unit Capacity: 1,876 Units R-3 5 WLG-OC 7 WLG-R RMU 3 I Grand Total 1,396 Questions and Discussion Buildable Land Inventory Next Steps