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Agenda Item - 2025-07-01 - Number 09.2 - ORD 2961 - AN 25-0002, Annexing 6210 Lakeview Blvd
9.2 O F �s� COUNCIL REPORT —� OREGO� Subject: Ordinance 2961, Annexing property at 6210 Lakeview Blvd. (AN 25-0002) Meeting Date: July 1, 2025 Staff Member: Paul Espe, Associate Planner Report Date: June 11, 2025 Department: Planning and Building Services Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑X Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑X Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: This annexation is being processed as a ❑ Council Direction public hearing (not expedited decision) under Metro ❑ Consent Agenda Code 3.09.050(A-D). Staff Recommendation: Enact Ordinance 2961. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to enact Ordinance 2961. Project/ Issue Relates To: Annexation of residential property to the city. Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable EXECUTIVE SUMMARY/BACKGROUND The proposed annexation is owner-initiated and will result in the addition of approximately 0.55 acres of residential land to the City. This Council Report describes the reasons for the annexation and provides basic background information.This annexation will result in property that will be zoned R-10 as designated in the Comprehensive Plan shown in Attachment A. The criteria for approving annexations and findings in support of this annexation are included in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 (Ordinance 2961). Owner/Applicant: Matt Williams and Mallory Temple Respect. Excel'ence. Trust. Service, 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 ``' Vicinity Map P 6L S 44 0 0� J\e 1 5c3 U 1 i. Proposed I �,a a sus J� J a °' Annexation il•i 6' 0-, •.1" (7 L, p Kenny St. r6')75, 6C,,,, -> co I 05 6' � o 18231 c18220 F, w F ^e �$ Q — i \ o� 8 r� / 18238 so 0 ACS (—_N_:_i___r•) r•) G� VI. 2p pI ��S 18274 6024 ��"�ti 18440 ��� 1 831 6 6010 a)c71 `� 6 18341 w o) a,pS - 'c 18462 •tiN 18344 5978 6 s,, I oi a c, F s__ oS G yds,rsr� i 7 18369 18372 r 6j �5 u) co \) 0 r c, a-) 0) 1 0)a 18411 ) 01 N.) L, ,OA,) (0 �� co Location/Size: Southeast corner of Lakeview Blvd. and Kenny Street/0.55 acres (23,958 square feet). Existing Land Use:The property (Tax Map/Lot 21E18CCO2600) is occupied by a single-family dwelling that takes access from Lakeview Blvd. Neighborhood: Rosewood Neighborhood Association Purpose of Annexation: Owner initiated annexation to connect to city sewer. (Future development of the property is beyond the scope of this review). DISCUSSION Plan and Zone Designation: The subject property is currently under Clackamas County's jurisdiction and zoned Low-Density Residential R-10. It is designated R-10, Medium Density Residential on the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map and will be zoned R-10, pursuant to LOC 50.01.004.5.a-c. Development Potential: Based on the size and shape of the parcel, this parcel could be divided into two lots. It can also be developed under the densities allowed under the middle housing standards. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Statewide Goal 10 Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter Statewide Planning Goal 10 (and the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Goal in the City Comprehensive Plan) ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units, the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries, and to provide greater certainty in the development process so as to reduce housing costs. Staff has provided findings (Exhibit A-1, Attachment B) that the proposed annexation and designation of City R-10 zoning are consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the Housing Needs Analysis (HNA). The proposal would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA, is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan, and therefore complies with Goal 10. (See Attachment B for the complete findings under Goal 10). Sewer and Water Service: Sanitary sewer service is available from an 8-inch collection line located in Lakeview Blvd. along the site frontage that will be able to provide service to this site. The City requires sanitary sewer extensions to be taken to the upstream property line when a property proposes to connect. In this case, the sewer is already extended along the full length of Lakeview Blvd. Therefore, this site will be allowed to connect to the existing public sanitary sewer main located in Lakeview Blvd. Note: Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards that would apply. Water: The property is served by the Rivergrove Water District. There is a Rivergrove Water District water main and a City Water Main located in Lakeview Blvd. along the site frontage. The nearest existing fire hydrant is located at the front of the property adjacent to the east property line. The City of Lake Oswego entered into an agreement with the Rivergrove Water District on February 8, 1984 for water services. The agreement stipulates that the District will continue to serve the property upon annexation if it is capable of delivering a minimum flow of 1500 gallons per minute with a 20 psi residual pressure during periods of peak domestic demand. The District is currently able to meet these demands. If upon further development, this level of service is not provided, then City water may need to be provided. Surface Water Management: Once the property is annexed, the territory will be subject to the City's stormwater management regulations. Any new development will be subject to these provisions, which ensure that new development does not have an adverse effect on adjoining properties and does not overburden the City stormwater system. Respect. Excel'ence. Trust. Service, 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 4 Service Districts: Upon annexation, the property will, by operation of ORS 222.520, be withdrawn from the Lake Grove Fire District#57 (per the July 2003 urban service agreement; no bonded debt) the Surface Water Management Agency of Clackamas County and the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District (no bonded debt) but will remain in the Lake Grove Park District (per the July 2003 urban service agreement), Rivergrove Water District (no bonded debt) and the Library District of Clackamas County (per the 2009 County IGA). Transportation:The City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Lakeview Blvd. is a two-lane uncurbed Neighborhood Collector and is under the jurisdiction and permitting authority of the City of Lake Oswego. The nearest mass transit service is Tri-Met bus line 37, which operates between downtown Lake Oswego and the Tigard and Beaverton Transit Centers. Service can be accessed at the intersection of Pilkington and Jean Roads. The draft findings provided in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 conclude that the proposed annexation complies with all applicable State statutes and Metro code requirements. Resolution 19-59: Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation This annexation policy was adopted by the City Council in 2004 and updated in 2019. It was developed to encourage property owners interested in applying for annexation to the City to preserve and protect natural resources and significant trees on their property. The City has a protection program for hundreds of acres of stream corridors, wetlands and tree groves within the City and its potential annexation area (LOC 50.05.010 and 50.07.004.8). More detailed information can be found in the Findings [Attachment B and Resolution 19-59 (Exhibit E-4)]. The applicant indicated that six trees were removed from the property prior to the application for annexation. In order to evaluate the tree removal for compliance with the City's annexation policy, staff advised the applicant to submit a Type II County Tree Removal Certification application. This is a program offered by the City to residents in unincorporated Clackamas County within the City's Urban Growth Boundary to receive certification that tree removal complies with the City's annexation policy. It is a voluntary program and is not an actual permit issued by the City. The applicant submitted a County Tree Removal Certification application (Exhibit E-2) for the six trees that were removed, which consisted of five Douglas firs (Trees#1 - #5) measuring 18" DBH, 18" DBH, 18" DBH, 48" DBH, and 50" DBH, respectively, as well as one 15" DBH red oak (Tree #6). The existing condition of each of the trees (prior to removal) was not available so staff assumed that all of the trees were in fair or better condition. Summary of Findings As discussed in the staff findings in Exhibit E-3, staff finds that the applicable Type II tree removal criteria would have been met for Criteria 2 and 3. However, additional information is necessary to determine compliance with Type II Criterion 1, specifically, regarding the justification for tree removal with the existing driveway repair on the west side of the property. Respect. Excel'ence. Trust. Service, 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 5 That said, since none of the six trees were deemed significant, it's reasonable to assume that Criterion 1 could be met further details can be found in Exhibit E-3. If the Council decides to approve the annexation request, staff recommends that the applicant be required to mitigate the removal of the six trees by replanting at a minimum 1:1 ratio, using a mix of native species of medium to large stature to complement the existing Douglas-firs and ornamental trees on the neighboring properties. All mitigation trees should be carefully planted to avoid conflicts with future development on the site. The Council has the following decision options: 1. Approve the annexation of the property and require no mitigation. 2. Approve the annexation of the property and require mitigation normally required for a Type II tree removal application by replanting at a minimum 1:1 ratio with a mix of native species prior to final building inspection for any future dwelling. All mitigation trees shall be carefully planted to avoid conflicts with future development on the site. 3. Delay annexation of the property for a period of three years and require replacement of the trees at a 3:1 ratio in accordance with the provisions in Resolution 19-59(4)(a-g) [Exhibit E-4].1 FISCAL IMPACT The estimated assessed value of the residential property is $360,527. The estimated tax revenue after the parcel is annexed is $932. RECOMMENDATION Approve AN 25-0002 (Ordinance 2961) under Option 2. EXHIBITS A. Draft Ordinances A-1 Ordinance 2961 (Draft Annexation, 06/11/25) Attachment A: Map of Proposed Annexation, 05/13/25 Attachment B: Criteria, Findings, Conclusion, and Effective Date, 06/11/25 B. Minutes None. C. Staff Reports None. D. Graphics/Plans E. Written Materials 1 Note that the annexation policy should not be construed as preventing the Council from exercising its full discretionary authority in granting or denying petitions for annexation as otherwise permitted by Oregon law. Respect. Excel'erce. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 6 E-1 Housing Needs Analysis 2023 (Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10) Comprehensive Plan excerpt, 09/21/23 (due to size, use link below to view this exhibit) E-2 Application for Tree Removal Certification for Unincorporated Properties and Checklist E-3 County Type II Tree Removal Certification Review 06/04/25 E-4 Resolution 19-59 Amending Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation LINK TO PUBLIC RECORDS FOLDER FOR THIS CASE https://www.ci.oswego.or.us/WebLink/Browse.aspx?id=2950844&repo=CityOfLakeOswego Respect. Excel'ence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY DRAFT: 06/11/2025 ORDINANCE 2961 AN ORDINANCE ANNEXING TO THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ONE PARCEL CONSISTING OF 0.55 ACRES AT 6210 LAKEVIEW BLVD; DECLARING CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ZONING OF R-10, PURSUANT TO LOC 50.01.004.5(a-c); AND REMOVING THE TERRITORY FROM CERTAIN DISTRICTS (AN 25-0002). WHEREAS, annexation to the City of Lake Oswego of the territory shown in the map in Attachment "A" and described below, would constitute a contiguous boundary change under ORS 222.111, initiated by petition from the property owners as outlined in ORS 222.111(2); and, WHEREAS, the City has provided written notification of this annexation as required under ORS 222.120(3); and, WHEREAS, the City has received consent for the proposed annexation from all of the property owners and not less than 50 percent of the electors residing in the territory, as outlined in ORS 222.125; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Lake Grove Fire District#57 district boundaries and the district has no bonded debt, and pursuant to the July 2003 urban service agreement between the City and the district the territory should be withdrawn from the district, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), the territory shall be withdrawn from that district immediately upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District boundaries and the district has no bonded debt, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), and the territory shall be withdrawn from the district upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, the part of the territory that lies within the Surface Water Management Agency of Clackamas County and the district has no bonded debt, the city elects ORS 222.520(2)(b) and the territory shall be withdrawn from that agency immediately upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, LOC 50.01.004.5 specifies that, where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific Zoning Map designation to be placed on the territory annexed to the City, such a zoning designation shall automatically be imposed on the territory as of the effective date of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, this annexation is consistent with the Urbanization Chapter of the City of Lake Oswego's acknowledged Comprehensive Plan, Oregon Revised Statutes 222.111(2), 222.120 and 222.125 for boundary changes, and Metro Code Sections 3.09.030 (A-C), 3.09.040(A)(1-4) and 3.09.050. Ordinance 2961,AN 25-0002 (21E18CCO2900) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 1 OF 4 DRAFT: 06/11/2025 Now, therefore, the City of Lake Oswego ordains as follows: Section 1. The real property described as follows is hereby annexed to the City of Lake Oswego: A tract of land located within the southwest quarter of Section 18, Township 2 South, Range 1 East of the Willamette Meridian, City of Lake Oswego, Clackamas County, Oregon, said tract of land being a part of Lot 57, Map of Rosewood (Plat No. 102), and a part of a 40.00-foot right of way vacation as per Board of County Commissioners Order No. 7906, recorded April 13, 1960 in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Book 569, Pages 760-761, said tract of land being all of that property conveyed to Matthew Timothy Williams and Mallory Judith Temple, by Statutory Warranty Deed recorded March 8, 2024 in the Official Records of Clackamas County as Recording No. 2024-008015; said tract of land more particularly described as follows: Beginning at the northeast corner of Lot 11, Highland Terrace (Plat No. 927), said point being on the southeasterly right-of-way line of Lakeview Boulevard (County Road No. 1126), 30.00 feet southeasterly from the centerline thereof when measured at right angles; Thence leaving said right-of-way line, South along a line being common to the westerly line said Lot 57 and northerly extension thereof, and the easterly lines of said Lot 11 and Lot 10 of said Highland Terrace, 148.14 feet to the northwest corner of Lot 14, Fernbrook No. 2 (Plat No. 1004); Thence leaving said common line, South 88°55'50" East along the northerly lines of said Lot 14 and Lot 13 of said Fernbrook No. 2, 120.00 feet to the southwest corner of Lot 18 of said Fernbrook No. 2; Thence leaving said northerly lines, North along the westerly line of said Lot 18, 236.00 feet to the northwest corner thereof, said point being on the southerly right of way line of Kenny Street (County Road No. 2335), 25.00 feet southerly from the westerly extension of the centerline thereof when measured at right angles; Thence leaving said westerly line of Lot 18, North 88°55'05" West along said southerly right of way line of Kenny Street, approximately 17 feet, more or less, to the intersection of the southeasterly right-of-way line of said Lakeview Boulevard, said line being common to the northwesterly line of said right-of-way vacation as per County Commissioners Order No. 7906; Thence leaving the southerly line of said Kenny Street, South 50°03'00" West along said common line, approximately 134 feet, more or less, to the point of beginning. The annexed territory is depicted on Attachment A. Section 2. The above Recitals are incorporated. Section 3. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be retained within these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Lake Grove Park District Library District of Clackamas County Ordinance 2961,AN 25-0002 (21E18CCO2900) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 2 OF 4 DRAFT: 06/11/2025 Section 4. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be withdrawn from these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Lake Grove Fire District#57 Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District Surface Water Management Agency of Clackamas County Rivergrove Water District Section 5. In accordance with LOC 50.01.004.5, the City zoning designation of R-10, shall be applied to the subject property on the effective date of annexation, as shown on Attachment A. Section 6. The City Council hereby adopts the findings of fact and conclusions set forth in Attachment B in support of this annexation ordinance. Section 7. Effective Dates: a. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C, this ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. b. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177, this annexation shall be effective upon the later of either: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State. Provided, however, that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any city, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Read by title only and enacted at the regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego held on first day of July, 2025. AYES: NOES: ABSTAIN: ABSENT: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor Dated Ordinance 2961,AN 25-0002 (21E18CCO2900) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 3 OF 4 DRAFT: 06/11/2025 ATTEST: Kim Vermillion, Interim City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney Ordinance 2961,AN 25-0002 (21E18CCO2900) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 4 OF 4 % Annexation to the City of Lake Oswego _ AN 25-0002/Ordinance 2961 z 6.00 s. s� ♦ 52 Q � 0) P ��eVD �l o 0 591p a 6 �� ' o. 41 111 ® _ o o o O10 (0 cn envy S4 SWCC Kenny St ��6 "� o w 18231 cn al s s� Q 18220 0 09 i �s R-10 7" ..\J� ��� , 7�25>\_7(s)C'D ( 18238 \ cos c 1a�2p I �0A 182�S 18274 6024 '` %7 �� ,mow; oA t°' 00, J`�4 ,• �Q�s :444620 I S N ,�4'`� t• H 18316 6010 0 18341 Q rn rn o ass �I� sr,� a Q cn w 18344 5978 `� �� �s7s eev', >• 7c9Q� 18369 SW Fernbrook St 18372 > `� d' 18411 4- -P N o 18418 t N v Q 18558 �� ��y0 18� C F 1 iv� �— Attachment A oY E�4 li '( I UO No- 1 Tax Lot ID: 21 E18CCO2900 m R GO '"� City of Lake Oswego: ( 18552 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN = R-10, Residential Low Density _ 0141&°"--4)A44011p,Ow ZONING = R-10, Residential Low Density �`p� s�0 Clackamas County: N 1S / -------- - ZONING = R-10, Urban Residential Low Density i - WV AP N a, I Lake Oswego rA Subject ? co rn I——-J City Limits Property (1) °' 0 50 100 200 300 400 500 600 • • Feet 1 5/13/2025 ATTACHMENT B Criteria, Findings, Conclusion,and Effective Date APPLICABLE CRITERIA: A. Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation; Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. 2. ORS 222.120(1, 3) Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing; Ordinance Subject to Referendum. 3. ORS 222.125-Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. B. Metro Code. 1. 3.09.030 (A-C) Notice Requirements 2. 3.09.040(A)(1-4) Requirements for Petitions. 3. 3.09.050 Hearing and Decision Requirements for Decisions Other Than Expedited Decisions C. Comprehensive Plan - Urbanization Chapter 1. Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services." 2. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." 3. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve the subject property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer, commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." 4. Policy D-3: "Enter into and maintain an Urban Growth Management Agreement with Clackamas County for lands within the Urban Services Boundary to ... (g) "Promote orderly annexation of territory." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Statewide Goal 10) Policy B-1: "Provide and maintain zoning and development regulations that allow the opportunity to develop an adequate supply and variety of housing types, and that accommodate the needs of existing and future Lake Oswego residents." E. OAR 660-008-0010-Allocation of Buildable Land FINDINGS: A. Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. ORS 222.111(2) provides that a proposal for annexation of territory to a City may be initiated by the legislative body of the City, on its own motion, or by a petition to the legislative body of the City by owners of real property in the territory to be annexed.The owners of this property have petitioned the City for this annexation.The proposed annexation complies with this statute. 2. ORS 222.120 Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing; Ordinance Subject to Referendum. ORS 222.120(1, 3) states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation to the electors of the city for their approval or rejection if the legislative body provides for a duly noticed public hearing before the legislative Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 1 OF 14 body at which time the electors of the City may appear and be heard on the question of annexation. The City has provided written notification of this annexation by publishing a notice once each week for two consecutive weeks prior to the day of the hearing in a newspaper of general circulation in the city and posted the notice of public hearing in four public places in the city as required under ORS 222.120(3). The notice was published in the Lake Oswego Review and was posted at the City Hall, the Adult Community Center, Operations Center and the City Library. A notice was also posted on the site on June 11, 2025. The notice contained information about the affected territory,time and place of the public hearing and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report. The annexation notification and review procedures comply with this statute. 3. ORS 222.125-Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. ORS 222.125 states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation within the area proposed to be annexed if all of the owners of land in the territory and not less than 50 percent of the electors, if any, residing in the territory consent in writing to the annexation. The subject property(Tax Lot 02900) is occupied by a single-family dwelling.The owners of the property have consented to this annexation. The proposed annexation complies with this statute. B. Metro Code 1 3.09.030—Notice Requirements A. The notice requirements apply to all boundary change decisions by a reviewing entity except expedited decisions made pursuant to MC 3.09.045.These requirements apply in addition to, and do not supersede applicable requirements of ORS Chapters 197, 198, 221 and 222 and any city or county charter provision on boundary changes. B. Within 45 days after a reviewing entity determines that a petition is complete,the entity shall set a time for deliberations on a boundary change. The reviewing entity shall give notice of its proposed deliberations by mailing notice to all necessary parties', by weatherproof posting of notice in the general vicinity of the affected territory and by publishing notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the affected territory. Notice shall be mailed and posted at least 20 days prior to the date of deliberations. Notice shall be published as required by state law. C. The notice requirements in Subsection B shall: 1. Describe the affected territory in a manner that allows certainty; 2. State the date,time and place where the reviewing entity will consider the boundary change; and 3. State the means by which any person may obtain a copy of the reviewing entity's report on the proposal The City has provided written notification of this annexation to necessary parties (mailed notice), to the general vicinity (posting of the notice of annexation on this property on June 11, 2025), and by publishing notice to the Lake Oswego Review, a newspaper of general circulation in the city.All notices were given at least 20 days prior to the date of the public hearing for annexation as required under MC 30.09.030 B.The notices contained information about the affected territory, the time and place of the public hearing, and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report.The annexation notification and review procedures comply with the Metro code requirements. ' "Necessary party" means "county; city; district whose jurisdictional boundary or adopted urban service area includes any part of the affected territory or who provides any urban service to any portion of the affected territory; Metro; or any other unit of local government." Metro Code 3.09.020(J). Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 2 OF 14 2. 3.09.040- Requirements for Petitions. (A) A petition for a boundary change must contain the following information: 1. The jurisdiction of the reviewing entity to act on the petition; 2. A map and a legal description of the affected territory in the form prescribed by the reviewing entity; 3. For minor boundary changes,the names and mailing addresses of all persons owning property and all electors within the affected territory as shown in the records of the tax assessor and county clerk; and, 4. For boundary changes under ORS 198.855 (3), 198.857, 222.125 or 222.170,statements of consent to the annexation signed by the requisite number of owners or electors. The above information was submitted as required by Metro Code. The property owners have signed the application and petition. The property (TL 02900) is occupied by a single-family dwelling, there are two electors residing on the property. A map and legal description in the form required by the City have been included in the application materials and are on file. The property owners have consented to the annexation on the annexation petition, meeting the consent requirements of ORS 222.125. The annexation petition complies with the Metro code requirements. 3. 3.09.050(B, D) Hearing and Decision Requirements for Decisions Other Than Expedited Decisions 3.09.045(D, E) Expedited Decisions (criteria incorporated for non-expedited decisions by MC 3.09.050(D)) B. Not later than 15 days prior to the date set for a hearing a report shall be available to the public that addresses the criteria identified in subsection (D) and includes the following information: 1.The extent to which urban services are available to serve the affected territory, including any extra territorial extensions of service; 2. Whether the proposed boundary change will result in the withdrawal of the affected territory from the legal boundary of any necessary party; and 3.The proposed effective date of the boundary change. These findings meet subsection B. 3.09.045 Expedited Decision D. To approve a boundary change through an expedited process,the city shall: 1. Find that the change is consistent with expressly applicable provisions in: a. Any applicable urban service agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.065 The City has entered into ORS 195.065 agreements with: 1) Lake Grove Park District (Lake Oswego School District) and 2) Lake Grove Fire District. Lake Grove Park District (Lake Oswego School District): The City and the Lake Oswego School District entered into an ORS 195.065 urban service agreement for park services in July, 2003.The School District operates the Lake Grove Swim Park located at 3800 Lakeview Boulevard. The agreement states that the annexation of property by the City within the Lake Grove Park District (which funds the swim park) shall not cause the withdrawal of the property from the district. Lake Grove Fire District: The City and District entered into an ORS 195.065 urban service agreement for fire protection in July, 2003.The agreement states that upon annexation of property within the district by the City,the annexed property shall be withdrawn from the District and the City shall provide fire protection services. This property is within the boundary of the Lake Grove Fire District #57 and the annexation will withdraw this property from that District. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 3 OF 14 The proposed annexation is consistent with these agreements. b. Any applicable annexation plan adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205. There are no applicable annexation plans adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205 relating to the affected territory. c. Any applicable cooperative planning agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.020(2) between the affected entity and a necessary party. There are no ORS 195.020(2) cooperative agreements (which relate to special districts) between the city and a necessary party. d. Any applicable public facility plan adopted pursuant to a statewide planning goal on public facilities and services. Consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 11 (Public Facilities) and the Community Health and Public Safety Chapter of the Comprehensive Plan,the City maintains a Public Facilities Plan (PFP). The PFP consists of master plans for streets, sanitary sewer,water, and stormwater facilities, which provide the basis for long-range planning for both the incorporated and unincorporated lands within Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary(USB).The PFP is comprised of the Lake Oswego Transportation System Plan, Wastewater Master Plan, Water System Master Plan, and Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan, pursuant to Statewide Planning Goals 11 (Public Facilities) and 12 (Transportation). Wastewater Master Plan: Sanitary sewer service is available from an 8-inch collection line located in Lakeview Blvd. along the site frontage that will be able to provide service to this site. There appears to be an existing tee (with plug) located at the center of the site's frontage that was installed for the intent to serve the site. A service lateral will be required to be installed within the right-of-way with a two-way clean-out positioned at the right-of-way line.The on-site work would involve decommissioning the existing septic tank(removal, or filling with sand or gravel).All work would be done by private contractors. A street opening permit will be required from the City for the work within the right-of-way. A System Development Charge (SDC) and plumbing permit will be due upon connection. Using the current Master Fees &Charges, as approved by the City of Lake Oswego effective January 1, 2025, the Sewer SDC for a dwelling using a %-inch water meter is $3,607 (a 1-inch water meter is$6,014). These fees and charges are adjusted at the beginning of each year. Note: Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards that would apply for the possible future land division, which will be prepared as a part of the preapplication conference for any land division. The sanitary sewer service that would potentially serve this property could be provided in a manner that is consistent with the Wastewater Master Plan. Water System Master Plan:The property is served by the Rivergrove Water District.There is a Rivergrove Water District water main and a City Water Main located in Lakeview Blvd. along the site frontage.The nearest existing fire hydrant is located at the front of the property adjacent to the east property line. The City of Lake Oswego entered into an agreement with the Rivergrove Water District on February 8, 1984 for water services.The agreement stipulates that the District will continue to serve the property upon annexation if it is capable of delivering a minimum flow of 1500 gallons per minute with a 20 psi residual pressure during periods of peak domestic demand.The District is currently able to meet these demands. If upon further development, this level of service is not provided, then City water may need to be provided. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 4 OF 14 Water will be provided to this site in a manner that is consistent with the City Water System Master Plan. Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan:There are no public stormwater systems in the vicinity of this property.After annexation, on-site surface water management requirements will fall under various provisions of the Lake Oswego Code. For example, stormwater runoff from new and/or replaced impervious surface areas shall be managed in accordance with the City's Stormwater Management Code (LOC 38.25), consistent with the Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan. Transportation (Statewide Planning Goal 12):The City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Lakeview Blvd. is a two-lane uncurbed Neighborhood Collector and is under the jurisdiction and permitting authority of the City of Lake Oswego.The nearest mass transit service is Tri-Met bus line 37, which operates between downtown Lake Oswego and the Tigard and Beaverton Transit Centers. Service can be accessed at the intersection of Pilkington and Jean Roads. The City's Transportation System Plan implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. e. Any applicable comprehensive plan policies Comprehensive Plan Map: This property is currently designated Low Density Residential and R-10 on Clackamas County's Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Maps. It is designated Medium Density Residential, R-10 on the City's Comprehensive Plan Map. As required by LOC 50.01.005.5, upon annexation, a City zoning designation of R-10 will be automatically applied to this property. Comprehensive Plan Policies- Urbanization:The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan contains the following relevant language in the Urbanization chapter: Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services."This property is within the City's Urban Services Boundary.Therefore,the proposed annexation and the withdrawal of this property from the identified districts is consistent with this policy. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." The approval of this annexation will result in the addition of 0.55 acres to be served by the City. As stated in Section 2(b)(1), the addition of this territory will not detract from the City's ability to provide police and fire protection to existing City residents.As outlined elsewhere in these findings and the incorporated materials, annexation of this property will not affect the City's ability to provide parks and recreation services, sewer or water services. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve this property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." Availability of urban services serving this property is discussed below: Water: Water is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Sewer: Sanitary sewer service is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Stormwater: As detailed in subsection D.1.d,future development will be required to comply with the City standards for stormwater management. Fire Protection: Lake Grove Fire District#57 provides fire protection services to this property by agreement with the City of Lake Oswego.The District has no bonded debt. Upon annexation,this property will be withdrawn from this fire district per a July 2003 urban service agreement and will be Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 5 OF 14 served directly by the City.The Jean Road Fire Station on 4555 Jean Road, located northeast of the site, would be able to respond to emergencies under the eight-minute goal established in the Comprehensive Plan. Police: Upon annexation, this property will be withdrawn from the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District and served by the City of Lake Oswego The District has no bonded dept.The Lake Oswego Police Department reviewed the proposal and indicated that it does not have any concerns with serving this property upon annexation. Parks and Open Space:The City has 629 acres of park and open space lands, or 14.6 acres per 1,000 population.The parks nearest to this property are Canal Acres/Bryant Woods Natural Park and Pilkington Park. Canal Acres park is 31 acres and located on the north and south sides of Childs Road. Because this is a natural park,there are no amenities for organized recreation activities. Pilkington Park is located east of the site. It is a 3.7-acre neighborhood park and provides drop-in play fields, a walking path and a picnic table.The City's park system will not be overburdened by any additional population annexed to the City with this application. Lake Grove Park District:The Lake Grove Swim Park, managed by the Lake Oswego School District, and funded by the Lake Grove Park District, is located at 3800 Lakeview Boulevard.The swim park is approximately 1.3 acres in size with restroom, play and swim facilities. Per the 2003 Urban Service Agreement, this property will remain within the Lake Grove Park District following annexation. Library District of Clackamas County: The Library District was formed to act as the fiscal agent for the distribution of property tax revenues raised by the District permanent rate to participating local governments who operate public libraries within Clackamas County. This property will remain within the Library District of Clackamas County following annexation. Transportation -Streets and Mass Transit:Transportation infrastructure and transit service is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d, above. Other Urban Services: LOC 50.06.008.3 requires that all development be provided with the following utility services: sanitary sewer, water, sidewalks, pedestrian and bicycle paths,traffic control signs and devices, street lights, streets, and TV cable. These utilities are now in place or can be put in place to serve this property. In the event that future development occurs, an applicant for development is obligated to construct all necessary public facilities to serve their development. Urban Growth Management Agreement The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Urbanization Chapter, Policy D-3, calls for entering into and maintaining an Urban Growth Management Agreement (UGMA)with Clackamas County for lands within the USB. Similarly, General Urbanization Policy 4.A.4 of the Clackamas County Comprehensive Plan calls for the establishment of Urban Growth Management Areas and Urban Growth Management Agreements to clarify planning responsibilities between the County and cities for areas of mutual interest. Policy 4.A.5 directs the County to establish agreements with cities and service districts to clarify service and infrastructure responsibilities for areas of mutual interest. In furtherance of these policies, the City and County have entered into an UGMA that stipulates a mutual interest in coordinated land use planning, compatible comprehensive plans, and provision of urban services and facilities. This agreement ensures coordination and consistency between the City and County comprehensive plans and outlines responsibilities in providing services and managing growth within the Dual Interest Area. Subsections 6 and 7, provided below, are applicable to annexations. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 6 OF 14 "6C. City and County Notice and Coordination: The City shall provide notification to the County, and an opportunity to participate, review and comment, at least 35 days prior to the first public hearing on all proposed public facilities plans, legislative changes to the City Comprehensive Plan, or quasi-judicial land use actions adjacent to, or in close proximity to unincorporated areas. The City shall provide notice to the County of private or City initiated annexation requests within five days of the filing of an application with the Portland Metropolitan Boundary Commission." The UGMA specifies that the City notify the County of an annexation request within five days of when it is submitted to the Boundary Commission.There is no longer a Boundary Commission for the Portland Metropolitan area. Staff relies on the notice requirements of Metro Code 3.09.030(B), which requires mailing notice to all necessary parties, posting of a weatherproof notice in the general vicinity of the affected territory and by publishing notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the affected territory. Notice shall be mailed and posted at least 20 days prior to the date of deliberations. The notice required by MC 3.09.030 shall follow the requirements under MC 3.09.030(C), where the notice shall describe the affected territory in a manner that allows certainty, state the date,time and place where the reviewing entity will consider the boundary change; and, state the means by which any person may obtain a copy of the reviewing entity's report on the proposal. Clackamas County is a "necessary" party under the Metro Code definition and was notified on June 11, 2025, 20 days before the public hearing. "7. City Annexations A. The City may undertake annexations in the manner provided for by law within the Dual Interest Area. The City annexation proposals shall include adjacent road right- of-way to property proposed for annexation. The County shall not oppose such annexations. B. Upon annexation, the City shall assume jurisdiction of the County roads and local access roads pursuant to a separate road transfer agreement between the City and county." The City is undertaking this annexation in the manner provided for in the applicable provisions of State Law and Metro Code for the territories that lie within the Dual Interest Area.This annexation is consistent with the City and County comprehensive plans, which have been coordinated in the Dual Interest Area within the regional Urban Growth Boundary(UGB). Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter The Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter of the City's Comprehensive Plan implements Statewide Housing Goal 10 and the Portland Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0000 et seq.), which requires that the City plan for a supply of residentially zoned land with an average allowed density of 10 dwelling units per net acre, and the opportunity to develop a mix of housing types consisting of not less than 50%attached and multifamily dwellings. Compliance with the State rules ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units and the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries,while promoting certainty in the development process to help reduce housing costs. The following Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) provides standards for compliance with Goal 10 "Housing" pursuant to ORS 197.296 (Buildable Lands) and ORS 197.303 through 197.307 (Needed Housing): Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 7 OF 14 OAR 660-008-0010 Allocation of Buildable Land The mix and density of needed housing is determined in the housing needs projection. Sufficient buildable land shall be designated on the comprehensive plan map to satisfy housing needs by type and density range as determined in the housing needs projection. The local buildable lands inventory must document the amount of buildable land in each residential plan designation. The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter, adopted pursuant to Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule, is designed to meet Lake Oswego's housing needs for not less than a twenty-year planning period.The Comprehensive Plan Map designates residential land use designations within the City limits and within Lake Oswego's USB through the year 2035.The Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations are consistent with the City's Housing Needs Analysis 20 Year Housing Need 2023-2043 (HNA 9/21/23), also incorporated herein by reference, and the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA, which specifies future zoning of lands with the USB upon annexation to Lake Oswego.These designations match the corresponding Zoning Map designations such that there is only one zone for each Plan designation, and therefore only one zone that is applied to each lot upon annexation, consistent with the UGMA and in compliance with Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule. In the case of the subject application, the applicable Plan Map designation and corresponding Zone Map designation is R-10. The HNA is based on the Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations. Figure 6.3 of the HNA, excerpted below,forecasts a citywide deficit of 642 units (86 acres), including a deficit of 192 units (38 acres) of low-density residential land, to meet the city's housing needs by 2043. FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate (0.05%j Zone&Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(20431 Units Avg, Acres Unitsiac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 555 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached&plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 475 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics The proposed annexation would add 0.44 acres of low-density residential land to the City's Buildable Lands inventory(BLI),which would correspondingly reduce the deficit of low-density residential land needed to meet the city's housing needs by 2043 by 0.44 acres.The proposed annexation and designation of City zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the HNA;therefore,the annexation and zone change comply with Goal 10 and its implementing administrative rules. In this case,the zoning district would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA. The City uses the following approach for findings supporting two types of annexation zone changes: • Option 1 is for annexation-related non-discretionary comprehensive plan and zoning map amendments. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 8 OF 14 • Option 2 is for annexation-related discretionary comprehensive plan and zoning map amendments. "Non-discretionary" amendments are zoning map amendments applied to an annexed property(or properties)where the applicable zoning designation is prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and a zoning conversion table in the City-County UGMA. "Discretionary" amendments are where more than one zoning designation is applicable, as prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and the City-County UGMA, and the City Council has discretion in applying zoning. The proposed rezoning in AN 25-0001 is non-discretionary because the zoning is prescribed by the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and the zoning conversion table in the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA. The City's R-10 zone is proposed to be applied consistent with (matching)the R-10 land use designation in the City's Goal 10/Metro Housing Rule-compliant comprehensive plan.The Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0035(3)) state that Lake Oswego must provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre.The City's R-10 zone allows for the development of cottage cluster developments of up to 8 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size of 10,000 sq. ft., corresponding to a density of more than 34 dwelling units per acre. The City's R-10 zone also allows for the development of quadplexes containing 4 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 17 dwelling units per acre. Further, the City's R-10 zone allows for the development of triplexes containing 3 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 13 dwelling units per acre.Therefore,the City's R-10 zone meets the requirement to provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. The City Council does not have discretion to apply a different zone to the subject property unless it is amending the Comprehensive Plan to change the land use designation;therefore,the City does not evaluate proposed zones against its Housing Needs Analysis (HNA).The City simply applies the zoning that is prescribed by the Comprehensive Plan, consistent with the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Goal 10) chapter of the Plan. In doing so, the City relies on LOC 50.01.004.5.a, which states that the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map provides for the future City zoning of all property within the City's Urban Service Boundary. In cases where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific zoning map designation,this designation is automatically imposed on territory when the property is annexed to the City. In conclusion,the proposed R-10 zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and City-County UGMA for the subject property, and the City Council does not have other zoning options from which to choose in approving AN 25-0001. f. Any applicable concept plan There are no applicable concept plans in this area. 2. Consider whether the boundary change would a. Promote the timely orderly and economic provision of public facilities and services b. Affect the quality and quantity of urban services c. Eliminate or avoid unnecessary duplication of facilities or services The proximity of this property to existing City services will allow this annexation to promote the timely, orderly and economical extension of public facilities and services.This property can readily be served with urban services and facilities. If and when additional development occurs in the area, provision of public facilities and services will occur consistent with the City's adopted public facility master plans, ensuring that it does not adversely affect the quality or quantity of urban services and avoiding unnecessary duplication of Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 9 OF 14 facilities or services. Therefore,this boundary change is consistent with criteria 2.a through 2.c. E. A city may not annex territory that lies outside the UGB except it may annex a lot or parcel that lies partially within and partially outside the UGB. The property to be annexed is located entirely within the Metro UGB. C. Comprehensive Plan-Urbanization Chapter See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies— Urbanization." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies— Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Statewide Goal 10)." E. OAR 660-008-0010-Allocation of Buildable Land See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies— Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Statewide Goal 10)." F. Resolution 19-59: Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation Background This annexation policy was adopted by the City Council in 2004 and updated in 2019. It was developed to encourage property owners interested in applying for annexation to the City to preserve and protect natural resources and significant trees on their property.The City has a protection program for hundreds of acres of stream corridors, wetlands and tree groves within the City and its potential annexation area (LOC 50.05.010 and 50.07.004.8). More detailed information can be found in the Findings [Attachment B and Resolution 19-59 (Exhibit E-4)]. Properties that are not yet annexed to the City are under the jurisdiction of a county(Clackamas, Multnomah, or Washington County). Because the City has a higher level of protection for natural resources and trees than county jurisdictions, it is the community's interest to encourage all property owners within the potential annexation area to protect these resources as if the property was annexed to the City. The City can allow the property owner the opportunity to establish that the circumstances of the tree removal would have warranted the issuance of a Type II tree removal permit under the criteria of the Lake Oswego Tree Code. If it is found that a tree removal permit could be issued, Staff could then inform the City Council that the property owner has complied with this policy. The policy states that upon receiving an annexation petition, the City Manager will determine whether a tree of a species and size greater than or equal to that listed below has been removed from the site with the 10-year period. Species Common Name Size ( dbh) Quercus garryana Oregon white oak 08" Pseudotsuga menziesii Douglas-fir 18" Thuja plicata Western red cedar 12" Pinus Pondersosa Ponderosa pine 12" Other Deciduous and horticultural tree species 20" Other evergreen and conifer trees 18" Taxus Brevifolius Western Yew 05-6" Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 10 OF 14 The applicant indicated that six trees were removed from the property prior to the application for annexation. In order to evaluate the tree removal for compliance with the City's annexation policy, staff advised the applicant to submit a Type II County Tree Removal Certification application.This is a program offered by the City to residents in unincorporated Clackamas County within the City's Urban Growth Boundary to receive certification that tree removal complies with the City's annexation policy. It is a voluntary program and is not an actual permit issued by the City. The tree removal certification application (Exhibit E-2) listed the six trees that were removed, which are five Douglas firs (Trees#1-#5) measuring 18" DBH, 18" DBH, 18" DBH, 48" DBH, and 50" DBH, respectively, as well as one 15" DBH red oak(Tree#6).The existing condition of each of the trees (prior to removal) was not available. The 15-inch dimeter Oregon Red Oak Tree is below the minimum threshold size for"other deciduous trees" (see table above). Staff found that the Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation (Resolution 19-59) apply to the other five Douglas fir trees. If the City determines that the property owner has failed to establish that the criteria for the tree removal permit would have been met, the City has the option to decline the annexation unless the property owner mitigates the loss of the trees in accordance with the provisions under Resolution 19-59(4)(a-g). Should the Council choose this option, the mitigation steps under this section are summarized below: a. Plant mitigation trees at a 3:1 ratio of the same or similar species that are a minimum of 3-inch caliper at the time of planting. Mitigation trees must be planted according to the specification in the "City Tree Planting and Maintenance Guidelines" and can be located: I. Within the required setback of the future zone of the property. II. If the City determines that there is insufficient space on the property to accommodate all of the required mitigation trees, the property owner shall pay the appropriate fee as established in the Lake Oswego Master Fees and Charges into the City of Lake Oswego Tree Fund. b. Successfully maintain mitigation trees for at least 3 years prior to annexation (and replace any trees that die); and, c. Commit to maintaining the mitigation trees for at two years following annexation; and d. Pay a restoration fee into the City of Lake Oswego Tree Fund in the amount as established by the Tree Code Fees in the City's Master Fees and Charges. e. The property owner shall execute a maintenance agreement with the City to ensure the trees survive for a two-year period after the effective date of the annexation. f. The property owner shall record a restrictive covenant against the City requiring the mitigation to be maintained for at least two years following the effective date of the annexation in a manner consistent with this policy. g. The property owner shall grant and record an easement in the form approved by the City Attorney allowing the city access to and use of the property for purposes of restoring and maintaining the required mitigation during the two-year period. h. The property owner shall provide a bond or cash deposit or other security in a sum that is sufficient to cover the cost of the restoration and maintenance of the required mitigation during the two-year period. Analysis The analysis for the Type II county tree removal certification for unincorporated properties was conducted by staff for this property on June 4 (Exhibit E-3). It is important to note that the City's Unincorporated Property certification process is typically completed prior to any tree removal and does not constitute a full evaluation or approval of an application or permit for tree removal under the City of Lake Oswego's Tree Code provisions. LOC 55.02.080(1): Reason for Removal. Criterion 1 determines what the reason for removal is: development, landscape plan, or an outgrown landscape area. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 11 OF 14 Staff Comment: The application states that the reason for removal is "Landscape Plan/Improvement."The application listed six trees that were removed, described as five Douglas firs(Trees#1-#5) measuring 18" DBH, 18" DBH, 18" DBH,48" DBH, and 50" DBH, respectively, as well as one 15" DBH red oak (Tree#6).The existing condition of each of the trees (prior to removal) was not available.The site plan included with the submitted materials appears to illustrate the existing development for the subject property, with notes demarcating where the removals were located. Under Type II tree removal regulations, removal for landscaping purposes includes tree removal, along with additional elements, such as landscaping plants,walkways, patios, or other landscape features.The justification provided for Criterion 1 were the statements: "Encroached on driveway to shop"for Trees#1-#5 and "New Driveway to New Garage"for Tree#6. These reasons given would more accurately fit into "Outgrown Landscape Area"for Trees#1-#5, and "Development" for Tree#6,therefore that is the reasoning staff used to evaluate if these trees would have met Criterion 1. Based on the information provided, it is uncertain whether Trees#1 -#5 would have met the reason for removal under"Outgrown Landscape Area" because there is no evidence to what extent the encroachment was for all five of the trees along the existing driveway.There is evidence of some driveway damage in a Google street view image from 2019 but staff was unable to verify that all five of the trees were damaging the driveway to the extent that removal was necessary. Staff finds that the removal of Tree#6 would have met Criterion 1,for development, based on the new driveway that was installed. Due to the lack of specific information regarding the scope of damage to the existing driveway and whether the trees caused the damage, staff cannot determine whether the removal of Trees#1-#5 would meet Criterion 1. LOC 55.02.080(2): Erosion,Surface Water,and Windbreak Impacts. Criterion 2 determines where there is a significant negative impact on erosion, soil stability,flow of surface waters, protection of adjacent trees, or existing windbreaks from the proposed removals. Staff Comment:The applicant did not indicate any impacts, but merely stated: "There are additional trees nearby at neighbors [sic] property to continue habitat environment" in the explanation portion of the question. Using LOMap, staff was able to determine that the property is generally flat and contains no surface waters,with no indication of soil stability concerns related to removal of trees. Following a site visit,the City's consulting arborist assessed the potential impacts of tree removals on adjacent trees and existing windbreaks.The evaluation found that the recent removals of the five Douglas-fir trees along the western property line has not resulted in significant negative impacts to the protection or health of adjacent trees.The neighboring property is heavily treed with mature Douglas-firs and those closest to the removed trees have long live crowns. Based on their crown structure, it doesn't appear that the removed trees were close enough to compete or provide shelter.The red oak was a stand-alone tree, so there are no impacts to other trees from that recent removal. Based on the materials available at the time of this analysis, and the on-site evaluation of the remaining trees on site, staff can determine that the removal of all six trees would have met Criterion 2. LOC 55.02.080(3): Neighborhood Character or Aesthetics Impacts. Criterion 3 addresses whether the tree removal would cause significant negative impacts to the neighborhood character and aesthetics by the removal of(a) a "significant tree," (b) altering the distinctive features of the neighborhood skyline as viewed from all public streets and properties within 300 ft. of the property, (c) removal of a visual screen between differing zones, (d) removal of street trees, or(e) removal of greater than 50%of a stand. If the trees are individually found to be significant, which is defined in the code, or found to meet the other sub-criterion, then the Exceptions portion of Criterion 3 must be met to be approved for removal. Staff Comment: Staff finds that although the five Douglas fir trees are all over 15" in diameter and non-invasive, there is no way to determine if all of the trees met the "healthy" (which includes trees in either fair or good condition) portion of the definition of"significant."The applicant identified Trees#1-#3 and Tree#6 as being in fair condition, and Trees#4 and #5 as being in good condition. However,this cannot be independently verified, as the trees have already been removed.Therefore, staff must assume they were all in at least fair condition and then also determine whether any of the trees meet the remaining criteria for significance—specifically, whether they are unique in size, species, or character within the context of the neighborhood. Following a site visit and a review of Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 12 OF 14 historical Google Street View imagery, staff observed that the removed trees appeared to have been of average size compared to other trees in the neighborhood (Douglas-fir trees are not of a unique species in this neighborhood, nor are oaks) and that the site is similar in character to others in the neighborhood.The surrounding neighborhood is dominated by mature Douglas-firs of similar size and many of the surrounding properties have smaller ornamental trees, similar to the red oak. Although all six trees were located on the perimeter of the lot,they did not appear to contribute to a defining feature of the neighborhood. Removal of these trees would not constitute removal of the last tree on the site; the remaining tree is listed as an 18" DBH walnut. Based on this assessment, it is reasonably possible that staff would likely not have deemed any of the six trees a "significant tree" on an individual basis per Criterion 3(a). Per Criterion 3(b), potential alterations to the neighborhood skyline or its distinctive visual character can only be evaluated by comparing current site photos with historical imagery from surrounding streets and properties. After reviewing the current condition of the site alongside Google street view images from prior years (Exhibit 2, pgs. 2-4), staff does not find that the removal of these trees resulted in a significant negative impact on the neighborhood skyline or overall aesthetics.There are groups of mature firs throughout the skyline in all directions and the neighboring site to the west is so dense with firs, removal of the on-site trees did not have a significant negative impact on the neighborhood skyline. In addition,the trees were not providing screening between dissimilar zones per Criterion 3(c),they were not street trees per Criterion 3(d), and the removal of the six trees does not appear to be greater than 50%of a stand of trees per Criterion 3(e). Staff has determined that this application would have met Criterion 3,without having to address the Exception criterion. Conclusion Overall, staff finds that the applicable Type II criteria would have been met for Criteria 2 and 3. However, additional information is necessary to determine compliance with Criterion 1, specifically regarding the justification for tree removal with the existing driveway repair on the west side of the property.That said, since the trees were not deemed significant, it could have been reasonably feasible to meet the requirements for Criterion 1. If the Council decides to approve the annexation request, staff recommends that the applicant be required to mitigate the removal of the five trees by replanting at a minimum 1:1 ratio with a mix of native species of medium to large stature to complement the existing Douglas-firs and oaks on the site. All mitigation trees should be carefully planted to avoid conflicts with future development on the site. The Council has the following decision options: 1. Annex the property and require no mitigation. 2. Annex the property and require mitigation normally required in the Type II tree removal application by replanting at a minimum 1:1 ratio with a mix of native species prior to the final building inspection for any dwelling on the site.All mitigation trees shall be carefully planted to avoid conflicts with future development on the site. 3. Delay annexation of the property for a period of three years and require replacement of the trees at a 3:1 ratio in accordance with the provisions under Resolution 19-59(4)(a-g).2 CONCLUSION: Based on the criteria and findings set forth above,the City Council concludes that AN 25-0002 can be made to comply with all applicable criteria and the annexation should be approved. Staff recommends the Council require mitigation as a condition of approval under Option 2, above. 2 Note that the annexation policy should not be construed as preventing the Council from exercising its full discretionary authority in granting or denying petitions for annexation as otherwise permitted by Oregon law. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 13 OF 14 EFFECTIVE DATE: A. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C., the ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. B. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177,this annexation shall be effective upon the later of: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State; provided however that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any City, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Ordinance 2961 (AN 25-0002) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 14 OF 14 ATTACHMENT 2 (ORDINANCE 2934) LU 23-0023 , A I `III16, 04 • I _ - • • • I I ill Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 September 21, 2023 it I JOH NSON ECONOMICS AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Lake Oswego Housing Task Force Kasey Adler,Transportation Advisory Board Yoko Kinoshita, Resident Kyrsten Baumgart, Housing producer Rebecca Lane, Resident Phil Bertrand, Housing producer Rosalie Nowalk, Resident Joseph M. Buck, City Council Liaison John E. Pauley, Resident Thea Croman, DLCD Bruce Poinsette, Development Review Commission Kelly Reid, DLCD Phillip Stewart, Planning Commission Liaison Douglas Corder, 50+Advisory Board David Tangvald, Housing producer Pat Ginn, Resident Kimvi To, D.E.I. Advisory Board Diana Howell, Resident John Turchi, Resident Cara Kao-Young, Resident Sarah Walker, Housing producer Betty Jung, Resident Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Andrew Parish, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 2 OF 55 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH &SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS 8 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY 10 I. INCOME TRENDS 11 J. POVERTY STATISTICS 12 K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 12 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 14 A. HOUSING TENURE 14 B. HOUSING STOCK 14 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 14 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 15 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 16 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 17 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 18 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 20 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 26 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED(2043)&LAND SUPPLY 32 APPENDIX A: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY 35 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 3 OF 55 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043,consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: ■ Portland State University Population Research Center ■ Metro ■ U.S. Census ■ Claritas2 ■ Oregon Employment Department ■ City of Lake Oswego ■ Clackamas County ■ Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey (ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego,as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. 1 ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 4 OF 55 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin,and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population1 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;519301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-year ACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 5 OF 55 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000, while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households.This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period. The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons; 69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census.Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2:NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more 0% Renter 6 person 1% Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in 2° 4-person 11% 18% a = 3-person 11/0 0 19/0 2-person 35/ o 38/o 1-person 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 6 OF 55 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census, the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8%of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households.In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits:An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000,with 24%being multi-family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi-Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 100 ■ 50 I I I I I I I ' I I I I I I I Hi . 0 00 O1 liii Oco Orb O 'L yR tico ti� LO y'L ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO .y0 ,LO ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 7 OF 55 FIGURE 2.4:AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% N o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti Ln v o � o 15% - r ,, ti tsilCV o c-I o e-1 c ,-IO o e-1 O r-I %-1 O c 10% `" al I c o i to5% � N N c- 0% 1ll ''' '''' y�Ae' ��-orate ��Ae' ��aaath h��eac5 ���eate ���eat5 ��aaach A'. aec �o �o �o �o �o ,so �0 cb SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5:SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 10% 10% 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables: B11005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 8 OF 55 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS The following figure presents the distribution of Lake Oswego's population by race and Hispanic ethnicity. The community grew more diverse between the 2010 and 2020 Census, with the population's white (non-Hispanic) share falling from 90%to 80%. The Asian population makes up 8% of the population, and the Hispanic or Latino population makes up 5%of residents.9%of residents identify as two or more races. FIGURE 2.6:RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY,2010—2020(LAKE OSWEGO) 100% o Share of Population by Race o Lake Oswego(2010) co 80% •Lake Oswego(2020) 60% I •Clackamas Co. 40% Oregon 20% o o oo o e rn L. Hi o o HiME -. a, c v c a, v o coLE o c > coc m O c 47, w• (o Z Q CO C (o cc a, J a, U Q l.1 CO N a, O i ` ▪ Q U H 3Ii 1= ~ SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P1,P2(2010,2020) In comparison,the share of the population identifying as white is also 80%in Clackamas County,and 75%statewide. The share of Lake Oswego's population identifying as Hispanic or Latino is 5% of the population, indicating over 2,100 people as of the 2020 Census.This is lower than the 14%share statewide. FIGURE 2.7:AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Average Household Size by Race & Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 2.5 White alone 2.4 Black or African American alone 2.5 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 2.8 Asian alone 2.8 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 3.5 Hispanic or Latino 3.7 Some Other Race alone 4.0 Two or more races: 2.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Avg.Number of Persons per Household SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P17A-H,(State of Oregon,2020) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2010).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature unusually large margins of error due to the small sample size. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 9 OF 55 Minority households tend to have a larger average household size than the average of all households (Figure 2.7). (This figure presents statewide data due to the high margin of error for local data in this data set.) Households identifying as"white alone" have the lowest average household size(2.4 persons),while all other racial and ethnic categories have a larger estimated average household size. Some of the non-white categories, such as black households and those of two or more races,are still similar in average size(2.5 and 2.7 persons,respectively).Those with the largest estimated households are Latinos, Pacific Islanders,and those identifying as"some other race." Larger average household size indicates a need for units with more bedrooms on average among many minority households. Each household has its own housing needs in terms of the number of bedrooms and other factors, based on the specific makeup of each family. Based on voluntary guidelines provided by HUD for public housing programs, households of between 2 persons generally need a one-bedroom unit, households with 3 persons might need two bedrooms, and those with 4 persons might need three bedrooms. Larger households may need four or more bedrooms,which are typically found in single detached homes. Based on statewide data, many racial and ethnic minorities are currently less likely to own the homes they occupy (Figure 2.8)—meaning that they tend to occupy rental units.These communities face systemic obstacles to home ownership,including lower generational wealth, less access to capital and financing,and a history of discrimination in lending and geography(e.g.,redlining).While the country and state try to address explicit discrimination through the law, the legacy of these barriers continues to hamper home ownership for many minority households. Going forward, many communities would benefit from more entry-level homebuying opportunities for these households, as well as additional rental housing for those who are still unready or unable to buy a home. FIGURE 2.8:HOME OWNERSHIP RATE BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Owner-Occupied Households by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 63% White alone 65% Black or African American alone 36% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 48% Asian alone 63% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 32% Hispanic or Latino 45% Some Other Race alone 43% Two or more races: 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ownership Rate SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25003A-H,(State of Oregon,2021 ACS 5-year) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2020).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature larger margins of error due to small sample size in some of the racial categories. Populations from some racial and ethnic minority groups also have lower average incomes and are more likely to have income below the official poverty level when compared to the total population. Such income levels are correlated with a greater share of renter households and impact the types of housing these populations consume, as discussed in further detail below. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 10 OF 55 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY An estimated 8%of the population of Lake Oswego, or 3,140 people, report having some form of disability.This is lower than the statewide rate of 14%and the Clackamas County rate of 12%of people with a disability.(The Census reports these statistics for the"non-institutionalized population.") The following figure presents Census estimates of the types of disability reported among Lake Oswego residents. Any type of disability impacts the type of housing that may be appropriate for a resident,but those with the greatest impact on needed unit type are generally an ambulatory,self-care, or independent living disability.Those with an ambulatory disability often need units with expanded access for a wheelchair,walker,or scooter.Those with self- care or independent living disabilities may require additional safety precautions around the home to protect a resident who cannot always be directly monitored. FIGURE 2.9:LAKE OSWEGO SHARE OF THE POPULATION WITH DISABILITY,BY TYPE Share of Population Population with a disability 7.8% Hearing difficulty 2.4% Vision difficulty 1.7% Cognitive difficulty 2.7% Ambulatory difficulty 2.9% Self-care difficulty 1.1% Independent living difficulty 2.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) FIGURE 2.10:LAKE OSWEGO POPULATION WITH A DISABILITY,BY AGE Share of Population with Disability by Age Total population 7.8% Under 18 years . 2.0% 18 to 64 years NM 5.8% 65 years and over 19.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 11 OF 55 Older residents are more likely to report a disability, including nearly 20%of those over 65 years.Of those aged 18 to 64 years, 6% of the local population reports a disability, and 2% of children. Because Census data tends to undercount the homeless and other vulnerable populations, there are likely more disabled residents in Lake Oswego than reflected in these data. I. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.11: INCOME TRENDS,2000—2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH ($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 ■ Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500, and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. ■ Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. ■ Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. FIGURE 2.12: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to$99,999 11% $50,000 to$74,999 11% $35,000 to$49,999 6% $25,000 to$34,999 4% $15,000 to$24,999 4% $10,000 to$14,999 2% Less than$10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables:S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) Figure 2.12 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k(27%). ■ 41%of households earn less than$100,000. ■ Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 12 OF 55 J. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%,and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: • The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups, but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. • For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. • Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.13:POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college,associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher -9 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database.These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these, an estimated 2,250 or 10%, are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities Census Tables:S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates);Methodology The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 13 OF 55 in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now, a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.14: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Metzger • -. Milwaukie Hospi C A.I-T JL HILL • iJ 14 Tryon Cre=elc State - Q 1 1Iwaukie Et M Natural Area .ti • 1 4a e L i�'. - . - -- �_ 1— lardiL,' ----.-------- \ r2:.,, i 99'E 'Os.•ve o 20,900 2,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere \ in Lake Oswego work elsewhere :ryanl , n•s arrd .ink Durham i! _. R . t till / 10% 12% / 88% Jena'i ritage Center 1, •River Grove :: ualtifi1 Stafford ) 1 Legacy Meridian. ` m I, I L■ l• I , .Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 14 OF 55 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide (63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 0% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census. Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16% of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 15 OF 55 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom ° 27% 2% Studio ° 6% 0/ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes, which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Detached Attached Duplex 3-or 4-plex MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 16 OF 55 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% • Rental 59% g 60% 0 40% 20% 18/ 10/° 13% 6% 6% 0% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% % Renter 20% j0i10JI2i4fP23 * :5% 3%■ 1/ of 3� Year Housing Unit Built c; SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units, older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 17 OF 55 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others,and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30%of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households o 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% A 60% 51% L0 U, N tto 40% •c = 20% 12% 16% v 0% n Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs, including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent' for local renter households only.This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. 'The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)."Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 18 OF 55 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% 25% 22% 0 20% =• 15% 14% v • 10% 7% N 5% � ■ 0% olo y�olo 'Lc) ��Io ��olo oe, o O O 0 Lod \ 01 of %of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents. The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families.Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds,as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or 5 Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 19 OF 55 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18), and 26 youth (aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender, 60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities,including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. 6 HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act,who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 20 OF 55 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources: Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%.This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home (tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 21 OF 55 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2:ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007, B25106,B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be $400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate,but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term. The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 22 OF 55 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference,or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% S9/ Rental 60% 0 v 40% 18% 20% 10% 0 13% - 6/ 0% 5% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004, B25032,B25063, B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 23 OF 55 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4:PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY,ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 - 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census,PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004, B25032,B25063, B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 24 OF 55 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 6,000 •Est.Owner Households N = 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level D - 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 0 2,000 o 1,000 � xk 0 M ■ ■ ■ I 0 0 < < < x0 ) ) ) ) 0) 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 h, p, p, op e c c 0 t gyp, 1, '0 0 0hy hL hgy h h 'lc) O • • • • • h ra� 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ys� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00h, h, 'h, 0, Ah' 0, h, 0 He hti hu h' h h 0 � h h'\ hti hti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 •Est.Renter Households E1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level t° 1,000 a) U, = 500 x 0 ■ ■ 1II I I I I . h h h h h ti ti ' O ' wren 000 000 000 000 000 00 00 00 hL �e`'� htih hlh, h''h, h`'0 huh 000 1h0 h00 h,' h, 'IN' Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The home value and rent segments which show a"surplus"in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around those levels.These levels will be too costly for some(i.e.require more than 30%in gross income)or"too affordable" for others(i.e.they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose). In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing.There is a need for more rental units at lower rent levels(<$900/mo.). HOME SALE PRICES It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively low housing costs.This indicates that one owner household is living in a"lower value"unit. It does not indicate that units at this price point are available on the current market. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 25 OF 55 If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current achievable market prices. For this reason,many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant. For reference,this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the market(Figure 4.7). • The median sale price was$860,000. • The average(mean)sale price was$1,075,000. • The average price per square foot was$430/s.f. • The median square footage was 2,300 s.f. FIGURE 4.7:LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES(12 MONTHS) Home Sales by Unit Type Home Sales by Price Level $900,000+ 319 $800,000-$899,000 66 20% $700,000-$799,000 67 $600,000-$699,000 56 8% $500,000-$599,000 ■ 39 0 ° 72% $400,000-$499,000 . 31 $300,000-$399,000 . 47 $200,000-$299,000 ■ 43 $100,000-$199,000 13 Detached Home Manuf. Home <$100,000 0 Attached Home Condo 0 100 200 300 400 Sources: RMLS,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • 48%of sales were priced above$900,000. • 34%of sales were priced between$500,000 and$899,000. • Only 18%of sales were priced at less than $500,000. • Only 7%of sales were priced below$300,000. Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75%of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least $600,000. Homes in this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the median household income of$123,000. Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the current for-sale market(75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households. The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following section. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 26 OF 55 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The projected future(20-year) housing profile(Figure 5.1)in the study area is based on the current housing profile (2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate. The projected future growth is the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region.This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1%per year.' FIGURE 5.1:FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE(2043),LAKE OSWEGO PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023-2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1.7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied Units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0% Stabilized vacancy assumption Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Metro,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC *Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population,household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1 The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons,meaning more smaller households to house the same population. (The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.) 7 The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis. To comply with state rules,the analysis relies on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC)and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast.The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state. The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1%between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05%per year.Many community members in Lake Oswego,including members of the project Task Force,as well as members of the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected growth rates,but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict,the deficit of land available to accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume remaining buildable land more quickly,potentially running out of buildable land within several years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six years;thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population forecast,if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends.It will be important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to continue to monitor actual growth patterns,as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected,the City will need to identify and implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near term. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 27 OF 55 PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND(2043) The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step. Therefore,the need identified below is the total need for actual households in occupied units(19,298). The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of each.The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households. The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing costs,from 30%for low income households down to 20%for the highest income households. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%,with 10% down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the future, these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand. Income levels and price levels are presented in 2023 dollars. Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand(current and new households,without vacancy) in 2043. FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND(2043),LAKE OSWEGO Ownership #of Price Range Households Income Range %of Total Cumulative $0k-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% Extremely <30%MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low <50%MFI $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% I Income $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80%MFI $350k-$440k 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental #of Rent Level Households Income Range %of Total Cumulative $0-$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% Extremely <30%MFI $400-$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% li Low Income $700-$900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50%MFI $900-$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% I Income $1300-$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80%MFI $1800-$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 %of All: 30.3% 19,298 Sources: Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 28 OF 55 The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next 20 years to under 70%from 71%. COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above(Figure 5.2)was compared to the current housing inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and price range(Figure 5.3). This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units. An average vacancy rate of 5%is assumed for the purpose of this analysis. FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS(2043),LAKE OSWEGO OWNERSHIP HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0% Percentage: 69.2% 12.9% 3.1% 5.6% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home othertem P Units Units Totals: 52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0% Percentage: 5.5% 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% Sources: PSU,City of Lake Oswego,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043. • Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be rental units.This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than ownership units. • There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges($300k to$600k). • The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points. Market rents are currently clustered in the $1,300 to $2,200 range in current dollars.Therefore, most units are to be found in this range. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 29 OF 55 ■ There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to maintain housing costs that are affordable(see more detail below). Needed Unit Types The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership households over the next 20 years. However,an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers. ■ 39%of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is projected to be some form of attached housing. ■ Single attached units(townhomes on individual lots)are projected to meet roughly 11%of future need. These are defined as units on separate tax lots,attached by a wall but separately metered,the most common example being townhome units. ■ Duplex,triplex,and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16%of the total need, reflecting new state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement unit.) ■ 34%of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+attached units. ■ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of some low-income households for both ownership and rental. ■ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are projected to be attached forms. ■ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings,with 62% projected in rental properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes. Group Housing Needs:There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population growth is modest. In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego's group housing population lives in nursing facilities. NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment,based on the projected demographics of new households to the market area.The needed affordability levels presented here are based on current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels. Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of "low income" used to set rent and income limits for various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income in Clackamas County of$106k in 2022, based on a family of four,while the median income in Lake Oswego was a higher$123k. For this analysis,the estimated Median Family Income(MFI)for a family of four($106k)was adjusted to match the average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the city average. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 29 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 30 OF 55 Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable unit or voucher to find housing affordability.Those at 60%to 100%MFI may find housing in older and substandard market rate rentals, manufactured homes,and middle housing types. FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Income Level Owner Renter Household Income Segment Total Share Common Housing Product (Rounded) Units Units Government-subsidized;Voucher; Extremely Low Inc. <30%MFI <$27,500 56 149 205 10% Shelter;Transitional Aging/substandard rentals; Very Low Income 30%-60%MFI $27.5k-$55k 95 221 317 16% Government-subsidized;Voucher; Manufactured homes Aging apartments;Government- Low Income 60%-80%MFI $55k-$73k 71 120 190 10% subsidized; Plexes;Aging single- detached;Small homes Single-detached homes; Middle Income 80%-120%MFI $73k-$11ok 134 172 306 16% Townhomes;Condominiums; Newer apartments Single-detached homes; Upper Income >120%MFI >$110,000 669 282 951 48% Townhomes;Condominiums; New apartments TOTAL: 1,024 944 1,968 100% Sources: HUD,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS ■ Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current need for more affordable units. For all households,current and new,to pay 30%or less of their income towards housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to become less expensive to meet the needs of current households. ■ There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum ($900 and less). ■ The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes, condos,and small detached homes,often on smaller lots. Subsidized Affordability Housing Need As alluded to in Figure 5.4,some low-income households,and particularly the lowest income households,typically need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and other household spending needs. Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043.The table uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common affordability level for tax credit properties. ■ There is an existing and on-going need at these levels,based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas County. An estimated 12%of households qualify as at least"low income"or lower on the income scale,while CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 30 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 31 OF 55 9% of households qualify as "extremely low income". (Again, this is based on the official state measure of Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs, which is relatively high.) FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT Low INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Current Need(2022) Future Need(2043) NEW Need(20-Year) Affordablilty Level Income Level* #of Units %of All #of Units %of All #of Units %of All Extremely Low Inc. <30%MFI < $26,800 1,492 9% 1,697 9% 205 10% Very Low Income 30%-50%MEI <_ $44,700 1,560 9% 1,771 9% 212 11% Low Income 50%-80%MFI <_ $71,600 2,075 12% 2,370 12% 295 15% TOTAL: 580%MFI _< $71,600 5,127 29% 5,839 30% 712 36% Tax Credit <_60%MFI <_ $53,700 3,962 23% 4,483 23% 521 26% Sources: OHCS,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,HUD * Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg.Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons. ■ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income households and many other low-income households at "affordable" housing cost levels. Often the lowest income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are more likely to serve those earning 50%to 60%of MFI. Housing Need for People Experiencing Homelessness: Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to maintain a fairly stable number of unhoused individuals and households over this period. Unhoused individuals and families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances,ranging from emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-income population shown in prior figures. Agricultural Worker Housing:There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the planning period. However,this population may also be served by other available affordable units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 31 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 32 OF 55 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED (2043) & LAND SUPPLY This section summarizes the results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). The BLI is presented in detail in an accompanying memo to this report. The BLI was conducted for land within the city limits, assessing vacant and partially vacant lands based on residential zoning, and environmental and other constraints that may impact development. The following table (Figure 6.1) presents the estimated new unit capacity of the buildable lands identified in the City of Lake Oswego and within the UGB. Residential zones, as well as mixed-use zones that can accommodate some residential uses, were included in the inventory, and are broken into broad categories based on housing density. FIGURE 6.1: ESTIMATED BUILDABLE LANDS CAPACITY BY ACREAGE AND NO.OF UNITS(2023) ACRES ACREAGE Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Land Type Acres Area(Acres) Area(Acres) Acres Capacity Residential 3,530 802 2,784 174 705 Mixed Use 490 96 397 10 146 Non-Residential 172 21 150 - - Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - - Acres Total: 7,339 2,193 5,230 185 851 UNITS UNIT TYPE Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Unit Housing Type Units Units Units Capacity Residential 648 39 17 705 Mixed Use 5 23 118 146 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Vacant and Partially Vacant Total: 653 62 135 851 Additional Capacity Approved Developments 2 23 341 366 Additional Middle Housing Infill - 110 - 110 TOTAL HOUSING UNIT CAPACITY: 655 195 476 1,327 Source: MIG • There is a total estimated remaining capacity of 1,327 units of different types within the study area. • The estimated remaining capacity for low density housing units remains the greatest share at capacity for 655 units,or 49%of the total. • There is a total estimated capacity for 195 middle housing units, including future infill in low density zones. This is roughly 15%of the total unit capacity. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 32 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 33 OF 55 • There is a total estimated capacity for 476 housing units in higher density multi-dwelling properties. This is roughly 36%of the total unit capacity. • 28%of the total capacity(366 units) is found in units already approved for development as of the time of this analysis.Additional infill opportunities identified on large-lot residential and some commercial lands account for an estimated 8%of capacity. See the attached Appendix for full Buildable Land Inventory details and methodology. The following table summarizes the forecasted future unit need for Lake Oswego. These are the summarized results from Section V of this report, presented here for reference. FIGURE 6.2: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED FUTURE UNIT NEED(2043) TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3 or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% New Units Needed Single Detached Homes 760 a) Townhomes 220 2 -4 Plex Units 309 oa c 3 5 or More Units 677 Manufactured Homes 3 00 OO OO 00 0`)'L O cb y0 Housing Units Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Census,Johnson Economics Comparison of Housing Need and Capacity There is a total forecasted need for nearly 2,000 units over the next 20 years based on the forecasted growth rate. This is greater than the estimated total capacity of 1,327 units. Figure 6.3 below presents a comparison of the BLI capacity for new housing units, compared to the estimate for new unit need by 2043. It breaks down need by general zoning category(LDR, MDR, HDR). • The projected demand for low-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 192 units,or the equivalent of 38 acres of low density residential land. • The results find a deficit for medium-density housing of 249 units,or 31 acres. • The projected demand for high-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 201 units,or the equivalent of 17 acres of high density residential land. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 33 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 34 OF 55 • These findings assume that under newly adopted state rules,3%of available buildable parcels in the LDR zone will be used for the various types of attached units(single-family attached townhomes,duplex—fourplex). FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate(0.05%) Zone& Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached & plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics • These findings point to a need for additional residential land in a range of zones over the 20-year planning period. Available inventory may meet an estimated 67% of total housing needs over the first half of the planning period, but a deficit is projected in the long run. • A range of potential housing policies and strategies will be considered in future development of a Housing Production Strategy by the City, including the ability of future plan areas to meet the need for different types of housing during the 20-year planning period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 34 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 35 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 APPENDIX A: LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY Methodology and Results I July 18, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1:Study Area and Land Classification. This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development.This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation,then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits.' 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGRAppendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf 2 A prior version of this Buildable Lands Inventory included unannexed land outside of the Lake Oswego City Limits which has a City Comprehensive Plan designation.This land has been removed from the study area following APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 35 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 36 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 1.Study Area Map s - s SW-STEPHENSONST , y D lessF RpKwY m o S�ONE �, --a O , O 0 P yy� 1 r-- MELROSE ST i \o f i44 '5, i COU/VTRy it X C1 Ug RD II \y� J J 21 a �4 KRUSE WAY O� SO P AAVE '~^ MEADOWS RD Q A. * 111 v i� ,, �r fie- -a OUN7q� SW BON ..R1 p y-�. %t c4 Q' % N, N BiVp > z Z Prim Rp 1 \�O o 71 0 0 740 cc { O cc z o ‘ u_i `� o m > 3 i' �QQ�R P�F�\E`�B\VD S�{ORE 8<V cvEV PEE -_._/` ' �fi tIlirr-Nir x ILO �T o 1- cc sow J o o! w OR 0 GREENTREE PO z� OS `eR Y 2 �.27 N3 Ov 0,00K 0R S BRGISn (FL...._Y ¢ cr I-- �ill9 Z C' m \�pSRD�`' O'rF O, �ile `1'G CHILDS RD �� S 41O _,1 n PO U AP O t . Miles OREGOd 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Study Area ,IF:—/i Study Area Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other.Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning discussion with the City's Housing Production Strategy Task Force and Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)staff. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 36 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 37 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones R-15 Residential Low To provide lands for single-family residential development with R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential development with densities ranging from seven to eight R-5 dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities and supports the economic feasibility of new construction R-DD Zone and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved Residential and integrated with new development. Medium Density The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, R-6 and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 37 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 38 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Residential High R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per Density R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the Highway needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Commercial(HC) retail uses which require access to a market area larger than the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity. Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that Mixed Use (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 38 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 39 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area. Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 39 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 40 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations Portland "Co- Cammurnr � 4 22 c College--Syl+.i�•• I:: , in Creek f ^`:a tural m- ® 1 sF n • • f a � R�7.5 - � -.-—_' ,. ilLom ---- Milwaukie „F_ � �; Heights Tigard � �f.' °e'_ P `�- 4 R_ya R-io l' v.' 4p HC' R-5 � r M d R-6 Oak Grove PIL R-ya q --t• a i Al. PNn PEC Bonita •sw eon Arts_ -�, 'try., I[d Rd ' Wi �� r• ''S PNA J . .4, ., t. '.:., •.1.tia,.et...41:ali - , IV. SW Durham r as R-yo .1R 7__n5 w5 ' w Concord R.7.5 Cook Pa. Trolley Trail Durham R.1e iiR �aVatln T�N / PNA � ��� toy Clul, / GII R i5 t e Jer R-'S Esri,NASA,NGR,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, T iia later. Pro,. Rive rg rove Gamin,SafeGraph,Gyotechnolagies,Inc,METIINASA USES.Bureau of land Management,EPA,NPS, `f_ USDA Mary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts Legend =Lake Oseego I ,HC ,F C R.6 LAYER l=I aNA C R-7.5 MI CI ®IP c-0 I l R-DD =Cl/oC 0 MC _I R-Lb ME POW =CRIkD 0 NC CI R-Ls O WLG OC ®PC =NC/R-It p R-2 =SLG R-2.5 MI EC/R-0 I=oc 1=I R-3 0 WIG RMu 0 0.25 0.5 1 0 GC 0 OCJLF3 0 R-s Miles APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 40 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 41 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations Portland [,,,�___...iii,,, Community • o / .224 ` V Ceilege-sylva' Tryon Creek _ Y + State Natural • 14T 'p ! 4i � r-!.I i 1 PNA Milwaukle C }f}9rr `1.q., - R•�o.� ,/ Hefgh[s '7t °°WW1 _5 • 'F Tigard q 5 to RI I�� ��� _ n �.. �J F q6 [J Oak Grove --. R S 1 Mc — — OCIR.3 R xo - 0EC Bonita. _•- fr. .��.. q.�a R-7.5 �'�n = SW Ronlu Rd `s'^ Cr"—i. �• R." P _.S PNA � j R_7.5 ... '. GC d L emi PNA• 1, N.7 )G — o I SW Durham cc i - • • R-7.5 Concord R•5 . �� 1 I',- ^-R"i5 Cl Trolley-Dail •,-.r. aR Durham lE Lk 4 ir Rno Aillii laiin j / ��' .� aly[lob J .R,� ,�, Iillt# I l -. ler PNA V R' Esri,NASA,NGA,USGS,FE MA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks.State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, Tualatin Rive rg rove r I Gamin,SaleGraph,Ggorechnolagies,Inc.METVNASA,V5G5,Bureau of Land Management,EPA,NOS, I USDA cMary5.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 Laie Os.vego 0 HE I]ONE I=12•7.5 I AYFR DIP MliR-0 iRW 1. CI U MC 0 It-AU =SA E CRS) I—I NC ©12-15 fi WLG OC L EC U NCR-0 =11-2 0 WLG R-2.5 EC/R.-0 U OC =R-3 =WLG RMFI L FMU O OCR--3 C R-s =I<alrotherverues> 0 0.25 0.5 1 =GC OPF OR-6 Miles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for "Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows. This land is not included in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 41 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 42 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County, State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University, which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW As noted above, properties in this category are generally not included in the inventory. However, some specific parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 42 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 43 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification •me niu'ja ^ IVIIIYYdU \ ,___ I _ Y- r�11 pq ld ltr 7. 1 , I I rii t U \1 \,� ! � 1itt. 1''J 7r� ...W. t cif! k T.> 1L ) -1iiiiL ai \ ip IIL %Alt 1�I ji ir111�'li Oakleo 1t � kw. ,„ 811 r►. , 1-49IFIAPI-AWISL 47,----6 44141--W"murFATirk A ... Ai 1 IL r...t . 7. li dpik.. <Aril_ 4 ., 1 4".N.,..., ,,wawa.. AMINC#Flig, ..• •I , PI, 00.010morp.--00_,/•40e 44000110%-ailwAt-'' 1 i ill i ....--0,4 seAV.46., +lip I, .�• 1.7f� wine��•tic�!.P " Li y ... OR l r 4-411 . OF 44:601:14/7. 4111 - I I--- ‘''' ‘..IIM ir�r .- + J,>3l i. AYAt, � - r1,� ...%� , - - iltri , :- , sit '- N ,' 1 EE-til r11 1 •- y r O---,A EOs t r r`'I- ��r 1 I I rov.I ��=`J' ,�11 t. C.-3 O y 6. . , I u !Miles e RFGO/ 0 1 0.5 1 S: 14y Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type ® Study Area Land Type Residential = Mixed Use Non-Residential = Public/Other APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 43 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 44 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies. Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated,while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts,which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 44 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 45 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development s 1 1', - ISW STEPHENSON S7 92 y ,H, 1_ 1 1 1 Ry?D m F x ®i <FssRq ,/PR PKwy I 1 11 oN-s FE - - m nn 'QO IRE .. s J ♦ O0 I I ° — o y sr ENO^ 111 �I _ _ +1• w` eb, ; -' 'xK M6ROsE ST ,, 4- €[ tea. rli'- r� i I4 /i ':.s G.ti¢g: "F *��tA 1 f c °A,7 le A'I' • ` iq, 1 rim `f '54_ I'`7 i��Ifa� i u R' ce 0B RDA `I'�� �u� � e 4 %,% 4 2j� I. ��btu',=-_. � i i �� �" �\ ylig p 6 KRUSE WAY_ O4 Imo ems=-tli �s"may / • A E MEADOWS RD Q �, Q-\ . VS�.tiv i e-..N�.•...•• Air., .t��� ,�I AVEE z 1 ^ l. D cr * ? �11t.ry�y►?yb >UNTq� � I x 1 SW-BONITA-RD�� a.0 q� QG R.1- h 4 .I011i,n"" t4.-„ BLVD .4a.e �-'-f y r+ �V.195 �'' , , ,,, , �� 7 •I, r EE d 1 1. lit* R��E`II�� , s o •. i. , PEE el 1, ► UpQ PK TSNORE g<Vp I,t�LN tSC' , Ji4A jl�- I rl Q9 �O OJT i'.. H ��--L ,O! 1 it `+y 5 a= = 6qG Ir_x 0 6REENTR EE(y0 �� 0E- FRr kL,4 . I O1 - I I - 0� y ;idi�A._ � : 1 of ia �T �� 1, '� Q +,` Y OvR�pOK - .. S BERGIS.RD �, %, J V� 1 1 1 4.c,E✓VAY 1 r (+1 w •• r• yi- - f 0 _ 1 ,L� n Q 4 J `s ` t f 11 RD Ste¢ --- RO �� �\ �' 561 a.. '� m \\vos 5, SFhp 0 �R1 CHJLDS RD I 4,T, - I I_- 9 f ' ►.J (Miles � 0 - �PA. E G O S L Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints ® Study Area Major Roads Taxlots - Greenway Mgmt. Overlay District Slopes>25% FEMA Floodplain Sensitive Lands Overlay Habitat Benefit Areas {HBA) Resource Conservation Areas {RC) Resource Protection Areas(RP) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 45 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 46 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 Mixed Use 490 96 397 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Publicly Owned/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Tax assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value; • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces; • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information; • Review of recent aerial imagery; and • Discussion and review with City staff and the Housing Production Strategy(HPS)Task Force. Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted.Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 46 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 47 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 • Partially Vacant.This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones,this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with a building value below$200,000, %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size: These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix (see Error! Reference source not found.3) are a pplied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site. Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus Zone. Campus Research & 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of residential/non- (FMU) residential mix General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 47 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 48 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots,total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type. A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 175 Mixed Use 490 96 397 14 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 _ Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 189 APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 48 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 49 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land 7 c\F . F , ,,—.141 _ . QP`rJ ri J!! 1P SW STEPHENSON ST. Phi •,, /0 , t y 1! , a . 1 �� c u, I j/ c �• `�, l . ` , , _ram 4 '1•if ,, \ �` 1 -.MELROSE ST I - ! r �( " z>1 I- `� ,, -- •-� - t(R�USSE WAYS 1 • Q� _ A AVE eQ { --j 1 MEADOWS RD e Y) '�">; _ _, - `�' • SW'BONITA RD��7. i EA�P� QG .�c,��� 0 NTAI/y BfVD- 1 IR o No ; °� w.g�VD_ • Ev��E N irl leap , �P �SNQRE.g-r - `` ��IrIP 6y SO/ •ti. lir�wIZO j III ! r_ ti r� S: `q Ali IF o GREENTREAD-- '' 2� 0S- GFR (p ' ''''' 't' (') -,I / ; r 1 Q ` Y L 10J��pO tuft-'9 - S BERGIS/RD�jr ,, , �+ O 11 0C) r i.j F, r,o` • , ,:el 1 ¢ ,Pi 1 S A F a +^ + CHIEDS RD ' .. 1:1.iig,-1.� J c,-2• `..�111� Oy? b N O` :_4..,10 tAt., nIllinin At �l1l1■ii ■ j O ozs 05 �1^ s ■� { �� ~� 1. 011/11;S .ram Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status Constraints Development Status Developed Partially Vacant Vacant ® Study Area APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 49 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 50 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones. This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density and Housing Mix Table 4 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis.The proportion of units expected to be developed as Single Family Detached, Middle Housing, and Multi-Family are also shown. Table 4. Unit Density and Mix Assumptions Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net 95% 5% DU/AC net R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area.4.3 4.3 du/ac net 95% 5% du/ac net. R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 5.8 du/ac 95% 5% du/ac net • Residential-Medium Density Zones • R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, 'r8 du/ac per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for 90% 5% 5% single-family. 1,500 for townhouse. • R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac —8 du/ac 95% 5% theoretically possible. R-6 First Addition —7 du/ac Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for 95% 5% Single-Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 50 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 51 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 —12 du/ac 70% 10% 20% min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac).Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-W ^'12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% Mixed Use Zones West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes "'5 du/ac Grove "R-5 density or greater" Residential - 50% 50% Mixed Use (WLG RMU) West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes 35 du/ac expected in Grove Office- "R-5 density or greater" BFR Staging Site, - 20% 80% Commercial nothing in other areas (WLG OC) Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes Generally applies to Institutional "R-5 density or greater." Marylhurst University, (CI) Must have commercial on which is treated - - 100% ground floor. separately. Campus 54 du/ac for projects Research& that include residential Table 50.03.002-2 notes Development (-30%of the district, as - - 100% (CR&D) "R-5 density or greater" above) based on LU 19- 0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes ^'56 du/ac Commercial "R-5 density or greater." o (EC) Must have commercial on - - 100/ ground floor. Foothills Table 50.03.002-2 notes ^'56 du/ac Mixed Use "R-5 density or greater" - - 100% (FMU) General Table 50.03.002-2 notes —27 du/ac based on Commercial "R-5 density or greater." Mercantile project (LU (GC) Must have commercial on 18-0026) ground floor. Residential o 0 not allowed "In the GC- 25/ 75/ zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road." Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes 8 du/ac(or R-5 density) Commercial "R-5 density or greater" for the 10%that may - - 100% (HC) develop as residential APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 51 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 52 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes 67 du/ac for the 50% Commercial "R-5 density or greater." that may develop as (NC) Must have commercial on residential (based on LU - 50% 50% ground floor. _ 07-0031) Office Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes 21 du/ac for the 50% (OC) "R-5 density or greater" that may develop as residential (based on - - 100% Galewood Commons Apartments) Summary of Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area, and Table 6 shows the breakdown of capacity by zoning designation. Land with a known development approval has been removed and is accounted for in a later step. Table 5. Capacity of Residential and Mixed Use Land Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Residential 174 705 Mixed Use 10 146 Non-Residential - - Public/Other - - Total 185 851 Table 6. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Land Type Unit Capacity Residential Land 705 Mixed Use Land 146 EC/R-0 5 CR&D 14 R-0 2 EC 67 R-10 241 GC 12 R-10 Comp Plan 14 NC 23 R-15 131 NC/R-0 9 R-3 28 OC/R-3 5 R-5 116 R-0 8 R-7.5 149 WLG-OC 7 R-7.5 Comp Plan 3 WLG-R RMU 1 R-DD 12 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 3 Total Capacity: 851 Units APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 52 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 53 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 7.Mix of Unit Capacity on Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Unit Capacity Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Units Units Units Residential 705 648 39 17 Mixed Use 146 5 23 118 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Total 851 653 62 136 Additional Capacity: In addition to the capacity listed above,the following categories of additional residential unit capacity have been identified.These are listed in Table 7, along with the expected mix of housing units. • Approved Development. Several parcels have land use approvals and/or are actively undergoing development. Where information about the unit capacity of these approvals is known,that information is used as future capacity(rather than an average assumption based on the zoning designation).These approvals are listed in Table 8. • Additional Middle Housing Capacity: Due to the City's middle housing legislation, most single family lots can be converted to duplexes or other middle housing types.The number of new units expected to be created through this process in the planning horizon is estimated at 1.5%of developed lots with single-detached dwellings outside of PUDs/easements.This totals 110 Units3. • Redevelopment of Commercial Land and Town Centers: An initial "strike price" analysis4 found very few properties that appear to be good candidates for redevelopment at$30/sf.Value per square foot for many properties along Kruse Way and in Town Centers is generally$50/sf or greater.There may be some opportunity to utilize parking areas for new residential uses, depending on the City's development code and many other factors,though additional commercial infill is also a possibility. For the purposes of this BLI, no redevelopment capacity is assumed. 3 A previous version of this analysis assumed 3%of all single detached units, regardless of whether they were located in a PUD. Feedback from stakeholders and DLCD was that this infill assumption seemed high and was unrealistic due to the prevalence of CC&Rs in Lake Oswego. "Strike Price" is a measure of land and building value per square foot at which a developer is assumed to be able to profitably redevelop a piece of property.The 2018 Metro BLI used a strike price of$12/sf for suburban jurisdictions—this analysis examine a more aggressive$30/sf and still found very few candidates for redevelopment. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 53 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 54 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 8. Parcels with Approved Development and Assumed Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Multi- Land Type Taxlot(s) Family Capacity Units Housing Units Units 21E18AB00400 Habitat for Humanity 21E18AB00300 Townhomes 21E18AB00200 23 0 23 0 [Link] 21E18AB00100 21E18AA00400 5400 Meadows [Link] 21E07BA00900 160 0 0 160 21E08AB02100 Twin Fir Road 2 2 0 0 21E08AB02000 The Boulder 21E07DD02300 [Link] 21E07DD02500 11 0 0 11 21E14DB02900 21E14 00300 21E14 00400 21E14 00401 21E14 00402 Marylhurst University 21E14 00403 170 0 0 170 21E14 00404 21E14 90000 21E14 900A1 21E14 900B2 Total 366 2 23 341 Table 9.Summary of Unit Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Capacity Units Units Units Vacant & Partially 851 653 62 136 Vacant Land Approved 366 2 23 341 Developments Additional Middle Housing Infill 110 110 Total 1,327 655 195 477 Next Steps This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. It forms part of the factual basis for City policies to address any deficiencies in unit capacity. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 54 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 55 OF 55 oti�' E 0 Tree Removal Fee: / 1 n Date: I Certification Intake Staff: (Unincorporated Properties) °REGO\ As provided for in Resolution 19-59, Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation, this application process allows unincorporated property owners to certify that proposed tree removal would qualify for a Lake Oswego Tree Removal Permit if the property were within the City's boundaries. This certification process does not constitute a permit granting approval of the tree removal.The property owner is responsible for obtaining any permits that may be required from the County with jurisdiction over the property. Applicant: /I/O W l Ir!a-WI S Phone:_SO 3 —616 - 51Y9 a _ ��//__ I I S l D E-mail (required): alai+ 5 t x k, /rrt Property Owner: /11& i— W �l/(c<.4�'Z S Phone: E-mail: l Address of Tree Removal Site: _t�d (0 L Q v (.kl R . 7705 5 Are any of the trees in the public right-of-way? CI Yes ANo Number, Size(Trunk Diameter), &Type of Tree(s) to be Removed:_S ft S lit 19(0. 4 Reason for Removal: P&ontr-iUeJ avx �f 1Itekit{r !.�t_•.rr I grant permission to City of ake Oswego employees to enter the above property to inspect the trees requested for removal. a e to rest "any dog(s)on inspection day. g ure of Property Owner(required) Signature of Applicant (required if different) El TYPE I Submit: (1) Site plan (81/2 x 11"), (2)Printed photograph of tree(s) YPE II Submit: (1) Site plan (8'/x 11"), (2)Type II Checklist, (3) Landscape plan (if applicable) To Do: (1) Mark tree(s) with ribbon O DEAD Submit: (1) Site plan (8'/x 11"), (2)Printed photograph of tree(s) Deciduous trees require a site visit by staff between November 1st and April 15th. To Do: Mark the tree(s) with ribbon if a site visit is required O HAZARDOUS Submit: (1) Site plan (8'/x 11"), (2)Printed photograph of tree, (3) Hazard Evaluation Form completed by a Tree Risk Assessor Qualified Arborist To Do: Mark tree(s) with ribbon if a site visit is required ❑ EMERGENCY Submit: (1) Site plan (81/x 11"), (2)Printed photographs of tree(s) and emergency condition O Invasive Submit (1) Site plan (81/x 11"), (2)Printed photograph of tree(s) that clearly identify each species of tree to be removed (e.g., overall photo of tree, close ups of leaves, bark or other identifying features—See Invasive Species Identification Guide) For City Staff Use Only Review Staff: Recognized Neighborhood Assoc.: Certification of Tree Removal: Would Qualify for Removal O Would Not Qualify for Removal O Withdrawn O Certification Date: (Save completed application in Planning Staff Resources/Trees/County Tree Removal Certifications) i-\forms\applctns\tree permit apps\County Tree Certification Form AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-2/PAGE 1 OF 6 O`ttL ) J TYPE II APPLICATION CHECKLIST V o Criteria for Issuance of a Type II Tree Cutting Permit GREGOtJ LOC 55.02.080 A Type II permit may only be approved if your application complies with all of the criteria in LOC 55.02.080. This checklist will assist you. City staff will review the application information and any comments received, visit the site, and then make a tentative decision. If more information is needed after the comment period has started,staff may then be required to restart the comment period,which will delay the initial decision. Please make sure to include all information and evidence to avoid this possibility. The City's Interactive Map can be used to create the required site plan(https://www.lakeoswego.city/lomap). 1. REASON FOR REMOVAL [LOC 55.02.080W] Reason for Removal: ❑ Outgrown Landscape Area ,landscape Plan/Improvement LI Development (check all that apply and provide additional information below or on a separate page if necessary) Tree Condition Describe Reason for Removal Tree Inches in (Good,Fair, (attach landscape plan and/or site plan for No. , Species* Diameter Poor) proposed development,as applicable) ( F /$fI EYle-roc aur) 01 th;Ire HAI� s hcio DP /B`tu<< DE 18lt `aad - D F6cod Real OR.L /5 I "Don't know the tree species? Enter "unknown deciduous"or"unknown evergreen"andttaff will attempt toridentif'the species at the site visit. Note: If a tree is an invasive species, use an"invasive tree removal application"for removal. 2. EROSION, SURFACE WATER, AND WINDBREAK IMPACTS jLOC 55.02.080j2)] Considering proposed mitigation measures,will removal have a significant negative impact on erosion,soil stability,flow of surface waters,protection of adjacent trees,or existing windbreaks? ❑Yes la-No Please explain your answer(e.g.,describe site topography, presence of surface waters,and whether the tree removal would expose nearby trees to wind throw): i k,cK. art; add i?7a f rrics I[eoi a 4- it c y 1,hex s rot ay iv cox4" ea) cf en u krin me t-f- Page 1 of 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-2/PAGE 2 OF 6 SITE PLAN EXAMPLE FOR TREE REMOVAL CERTIFICATION A site plan is required as part of your tree removal certification request. The site plan must be on 8.5" x 11" size paper. Lakeviewoulevard — S ROW ROW _ .:... . _?. _(7_ . _ . _ . . . _ . _ . _ . _: _ . ITEMS TO INCLUDE ON YOUR SITE PLAN: I I 0 Your property lines 1 14" Maple 1 El Address of the Tree Removal Site I \ 14" Walnut I0 Public Right Of Way (Include Street Name) r. see haz�rd RI House or other Structures (Mark "Vacant" if none) i 18" MapleNir - ion form); El Creeks, Streams, or Lakes that run through or i border property Location, Diameter Size and Type of Trees • • proposed for removal; mark trees to be removed 1 I with an "X" 1 1 41 The site plan may be hand-drawn or you can print out a site plan using LOMaps at the following link: I Plikk123 Lakeview Blvd. www.lakeoswego.city/LOMap. In LOMaps, type your 1 I address in the search box in the upper right side of 10" Cherry the screen or use the zoom tool to zoom in on your Replant w/2 F property. Once you have zoomed in on your property, 1 1.5"red oaks click on "T"for tools at the top of the screen and I 116" Oak ----___G i select"print." ______Ci& Laurel Hedge (to be pruned) • — -------6—'--------- . o Staff Review Comments: AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-2/PAGE 3 OF 6 3. NEIGHBORHOOD CHARACTER OR AESTHETICS IMPACTS 1LOC 55.02.08053fl Of the trees listed in Section 1 that are greater than 15"diameter,and in good or fair health, and are not invasive species, are any of those trees significant to the neighborhood due to size, species or distinctive character? ❑ Yes KNo Please explain your answer(e.g.,is the tree one of the biggest in the neighborhood, is it an unusual or rare species, is the tree unique in appearance and distinctive in the neighborhood,etc.): spy u 5 ftsvrCocifte 3 crcizz - kef) scone q/red,cctifo. . Is the tree(s) proposed for removal the only remaining tree(s)on the property? ❑Yes 1,4 No Will the proposed tree removal alter distinctive features or the neighborhood skyline? ❑ Yes , No Please explain your answer(e.g.,is the tree prominently visible from areas within 300'of the site, will the tree removal create a significant change/gap to the treed skyline; photographs are strongly encouraged): rGes ari' CG -E«i'>F o' parl-4-y, LU k Cnitz,d l ce, write nos Iq' t r Vis/1' '4 rS ate vl Rv1� � � $tu�� � s � � � a�� now �' Do any of the trees proposed for removal provide a visual screen between dissimilar zoning districts,for example between a residential and commercial zone? ❑ Yes ,IiNo Provide additional details, as needed,below: Are any trees proposed for removal located in a public right of way? ❑ Yes .1 JNo Note:The right-of-way is to the lot lines, not just the edge of the traveled area of the street/alley. Is more than 50%of a"stand"of tree proposed for removal?A"stand"is a group of trees that forms a visual and biological unit at least 15 feet in height with a contiguous crown width of at least 120 feet. ❑ Yes o Please explain your answer and describe the measurement methodology used to make this determination: Th s40440I o' -4r'c (-c) s cuty fl,f "A 6 ci rc / i`is Cc� "tirtS 2 4141tS a c e Hod - ± EXCEPTIONS TO LOC 55.02.08013) If you checked "yes" for any of the questions under Section 3, above, you are required to complete the Exceptions Section, below; if you answered "no"to all questions under Section 3, you may elect to skip to Section 4 or you can also address an Exception as an alternative argument for removal (in case the review body disagrees). Are any trees likely to or will continue to cause damage to a permanent,viable existing structure,or to infrastructure(e.g., utilities or paved landscape features, etc.)? ,-Yes ❑ No Please explain your answer and attach evidence, such as photographs, arborist report, letter from structural engineer, or other relevant information if such damage is not visible and it is not clear that the damage is being caused by the tree: I p 1114- .e,- ✓ rcd T I Go x4. C'�((UC woo f e4u h., u�t lC l ktt/C - I Page 2 of 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-2/PAGE 4 OF 6 If yes,can the damage be remedied through reasonable maintenance or pruning? ❑Yes , 'No Please explain your answer and attach evidence,such as an arborist report: Cis a,et- c of o t%iL > i y-i 6044(c6 I`s? cusd heel (fti o -4 e Have reasonable alternatives to the tree removal been considered, such as alternative site plans or placement of structures or alternate landscaping designs that would lessen the impact on trees(the alternatives must continue to comply with other provisions of the Lake Oswego Code)? ❑Yes EiNo Please explain your answer and attach any alternative plans considered and describe why they cannot be used:e I 0 '+t&t-s a r- i I� uc� dµcm pcAc�d /ac kai s /7v�,�y a ct i ct k -- It i tat s kifn a lr�c,erei ct4141-c a-4"o ,,,,;;;4. 4. VIEW ENHANCEMENT jLOC 55.02.080 Is the proposed tree removal for the sole purpose of providing or enhancing views? ❑Yes gNo 5. COMPLIANCE WITH OTHER CODE SECTIONS [LOC 55.02.08055)] Is the proposed tree removal contrary to another section of the Lake Oswego Code(e.g.,Sensitive Lands requirement(LOC 50.05.010), prior condition of approval)? ❑Yes ei No If yes, please list code section and reasons: 6. MITIGATION [LOC 55.02.080(6) PURSUANT TO LOC 55.02.0841 Replacement trees are required for each tree removed. Minimum mitigation size: 1.5 inch caliper for deciduous and 6 feet tall for evergreen.The mitigation plan must be approved prior to permit issuance and those trees will be inspected in the field. Indicate if any of the following apply: .kr Native trees on the City's Master Plant List are proposed for removal. If so, mitigation trees must also be a native species. ❑ "Significant"trees (per Section 3 above)are proposed for removal for development purposes. If so,two mitigation trees are required for each significant tree removed. ❑ Removal is for the landscaping purpose of thinning to improve the health of othertrees.If so, mitigation shall be reduced to the extent there is insufficient space to replant elsewhere on the site and maintain tree health. Please explain below. ❑ There is insufficient space to plant one or more mitigation trees on-site. I request that staff verify this and allow replanting off-site on another property I own or to pay a fee into the Tree Fund in lieu of planting.Please explain below. List the proposed mitigation tree(s)species and show their locations,sizes,and species on the site plan. CS-) DavL9 hasf r`c -f-n►,Es /f 0 eG KGC , PeCit Oa I. 5 i K. d ia►if tas f-- fr,doe, e Page 3 of 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-2/PAGE 5 OF 6 5.a0F i BUILD NEW ATTACHED Pow 1 G 50SQ1-T UNHEATED GARAGE UVYt 6 e Po wyid E..1.04 gz_ ..�� SITE PLAN NOTES \✓ TAX LOT NO.; 21EI8CCO2900 QI (E)MAIN HOUSE(1,550 SOFT) BLOCK: ROSEWOOD tN)PATIO COVER�311 SOFT):AND LOT: 51 l 0'f� - FALSE GABLE(Ib4 SOFT) SETBACKS: FRONT 25/ SIDES Q tv. : � CONNECT(N)DOWNSPOUT TO(E) I OFT/ REAR 30 �,- •y� """err - STORM WATER DRAIN. Z BLDG AREA: 2,305 SOFT 0� DL ck.03 ® (E)CONC FOOTPATH(90 sort) Q YEAR BUILT: 1948 / t� k I dun' MAP NO,: 21E1SCC p'�4' �� n ♦. SN,��J� ® (E)CONG. DRIVEWAY(1,013 SOFT) LU ZONE: RIO v r 1� gppr� I '�'et"^NA& ® (E)ACCESSORY BUILDING (466 SOFT) N UGB: METRO UGB . -hot {'p © (E)GARAGE(1,212 SOFT) f WATER DIST.' RIVERGROVE ,; • '.i • APPROX ELEVATION: 168.00 FT y'e s •:• Aa,�(Q;1 ® (E)ASHPHALT DRIVEWAY(1,982 SOFT) t YEAR BUILT: 1948 ,� • :N":: •.: •:Q �1 ,,Lr 0 pp.� ® (E)WATER METER © � �� ® (E)1,090 GALLON SEPTIC TANK AND A• :':©_• I6' ASSOCIATED SEWER DRAIN FIELD 0 1 ` ',, w, • . riI*' ® (E)DOWNSPOUT• . +r TREE NOTES i IDOQL+ • : :. ,^�':' :::a.'r, 1 \'I w0 tit J4? • '"�'•.\�m• / •' , . ` Yo • • .•• • • Plot+- (5 6 -ir.la e ves3 ado. *wes MI so R• e- - „- 0 \• •••: "•�:•, -4 o nt r treko cad-�ca of- ce sin �g �ar�ro •i : 1 ::: i! 0h :eir °)4$4 0 .•::::.: . . E ST, if*.1112,12.1_ .„-- -4.::- ci 2% go . ! l-, •i . /' N LIE-LEGEND 5!a .'T I BOUNDRY - m ) ��77 SETBACK - - °' rS TIa ROOF LINE I bare: 11 0 SITE PLAN WATER LINE W 3/14/2025 '-to _ GAS LINE G-- _ SEWER LINE S - SHEET FIRE SEP. —F 0'-1" = 30'0" ELEC. BERM. E AOl AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-2/PAGE 6 OF 6 MEMORANDUM V —! O GREGOC TO: Paul Espe, Associate Planner FROM: Daphne Cissell, Associate Planner Planning and Building Services SUBJECT: County Type II Tree Removal Certification at 6210 Lakeview Blvd, Lake Oswego, OR 97035 DATE: June 4, 2025 This letter is to review and certify whether, as provided for in City of Lake Oswego Resolution 19- 59, Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation,the six trees removed at the above-referenced address would or would not have qualified for removal under the City Type II Tree Removal criteria per LOC 55.02.080 if the property were within the City's boundaries. Please note that, as stated above, these trees were removed prior to the submission of this certification application. Therefore, this analysis is based on what staff could determine from a site visit, current photographs, Google Street View images, and LOMap aerial photos (Exhibit 2), and the County Type II Tree Removal Certification application submitted by the applicant (Exhibit 1). LOC 55.02.080 outlines specific criteria that must be met for approval prior to tree removal. Staff will address these criteria below and indicate whether they would have been met or not, based on the available materials at the time of analysis. LOC 55.02.080(1): Reason for Removal. Criterion 1 determines what the reason for removal is: development, landscape plan, or an outgrown landscape area.The application states that the reason for removal is "Landscape Plan/Improvement."The application listed six trees that were removed, described as five Douglas- firs (Trees#1-#5) measuring 18" DBH, 18" DBH, 18" DBH,48" DBH, and 50" DBH, respectively, as well as one 15" DBH red oak (Tree#6).The existing condition of each of the trees (prior to removal)was not available. The site plan included with the submitted materials appears to illustrate the existing development for the subject property, with notes demarcating where the removals were located. Under Type II tree removal regulations, removal for landscaping purposes includes tree Respect. Excellence. Trust. _ `vi:::@. 503-635-0290 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 1 OF 15 Page 2 of 4 removal, along with additional elements, such as landscaping plants, walkways, patios, or other landscape features. The justification provided for Criterion 1 were the statements: "Encroached on driveway to shop" for Trees#1 - #5 and "New Driveway to New Garage" for Tree #6. These reasons given would more accurately fit into "Outgrown Landscape Area" for Trees #1 -#5, and "Development" for Tree #6, therefore that is the reasoning staff used to evaluate if these trees would have met Criterion 1. Based on the information provided, it is uncertain whether Trees #1 -#5 would have met the reason for removal under "Outgrown Landscape Area" because there is no evidence to what extent the encroachment was for all five of the trees along the existing driveway. There is evidence of some driveway damage in a Google street view image from 2019 (Exhibit 2, Page 5), but staff was unable to verify that all five of the trees were damaging the driveway to the extent that removal was necessary. Staff finds that the removal of Tree#6 would have met Criterion 1, for development, based on the new driveway that was installed. Due to the lack of specific information regarding the scope of damage to the existing driveway and whether the trees caused the damage, staff cannot determine whether the removal of Trees #1 -#5 would meet Criterion 1. LOC 55.02.080(2): Erosion,Surface Water, and Windbreak Impacts. Criterion 2 determines where there is a significant negative impact on erosion, soil stability,flow of surface waters, protection of adjacent trees, or existing windbreaks from the proposed removals. The applicant did not indicate any impacts, but merely stated: "There are additional trees nearby at neighbors [sic] property to continue habitat environment" in the explanation portion of the question (Exhibit 1, pg. 3). Using LOMap, staff was able to determine that the property is generally flat, contains no surface waters, and with no indication of soil stability concerns related to removal of trees. Following a site visit, the City's consulting arborist assessed the potential impacts of tree removals on adjacent trees and existing windbreaks. The evaluation found that the recent removals of the five Douglas-fir trees along the western property line has not resulted in significant negative impacts to the protection or health of adjacent trees. The neighboring property is heavily treed with mature Douglas-firs and those closest to the removed trees have long live crowns. Based on their crown structure, it doesn't appear that the removed trees were close enough to compete or provide shelter. The red oak was a stand-alone tree, so there are no impacts to other trees from that recent removal. Based on the materials available at the time of this analysis, and the on-site evaluation of the remaining trees on site, staff can determine that the removal of all six trees would have met Criterion 2. — Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. AN 15-000I tAI'1I13I I t-S/I'AUt I VI- 10 Page 3 of 4 LOC 55.02.080(3): Neighborhood Character or Aesthetics Impacts. Criterion 3 addresses whether the tree removals would cause significant negative impacts to the neighborhood character and aesthetics by the removal of(a) a "significant tree," (b) altering the distinctive features of the neighborhood skyline as viewed from all public streets and properties within 300 ft. of the property, (c) removal of a visual screen between differing zones, (d) removal of street trees, or (e) removal of greater than 50%of a stand. If the trees are individually found to be significant, which is defined in the code, or found to meet the other sub-criterion,then the Exceptions portion of Criterion 3 must be met to be approved for removal. Staff finds that although the trees are all over 15" in diameter and non-invasive,there is no way to determine if all six of the trees met the "healthy" (which includes trees in either fair or good condition) portion of the definition of"significant."The applicant identified Trees #1 -#3 and Tree #6 as being in fair condition, and Trees#4 and #5 as being in good condition. However, this cannot be independently verified, as the trees have already been removed. Therefore, staff must assume they were all in at least fair condition and then also determine whether any of the trees meet the remaining criteria for significance—specifically, whether they are unique in size, species, or character within the context of the neighborhood. Following a site visit and a review of historical Google Street View imagery, staff observed that the removed trees appeared to have been of average size compared to other trees in the neighborhood, Douglas-fir trees are not of a unique species in this neighborhood, nor are oaks; the site is similar in character to others in the neighborhood. The surrounding neighborhood is dominated by mature Douglas-firs of similar size and many of the surrounding properties have smaller ornamental trees, similar to the red oak. Although all six trees were located on the perimeter of the lot, they did not appear to contribute to a defining feature of the neighborhood. Removal of these trees would not constitute removal of the last tree on the site; the remaining tree is listed as an 18" DBH walnut. Based on this assessment, it is reasonably possible that staff would likely not have deemed any of the six trees a "significant tree" on an individual basis per Criterion 3(a). Per Criterion 3(b), potential alterations to the neighborhood skyline or its distinctive visual character can only be evaluated by comparing current site photos with historical imagery from surrounding streets and properties. After reviewing the current condition of the site alongside Google street view images from prior years (Exhibit 2, pgs. 2-4), staff does not find that the removal of these trees resulted in a significant negative impact on the neighborhood skyline or overall aesthetics. There are groups of mature firs throughout the skyline in all directions and the neighboring site to the west is so dense with firs, removal of the on-site trees did not have a significant negative impact on the neighborhood skyline. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. AN 1 -0001 tAI1IbI I t-S/I'ACUt 3 VI- 10 Page 4 of 4 In addition, the trees were not providing screening between dissimilar zones per Criterion 3(c), they were not street trees per Criterion 3(d), and the removal of the six trees does not appear to be greater than 50%of a stand of trees per Criterion 3(e). Staff has determined that this application would have met Criterion 3, without having to address the Exception criterion. Conclusion and Recommendation: Overall, staff finds that the applicable Type II criteria would have been met for Criteria 2 and 3. However, additional information is necessary to determine compliance with Criterion 1, specifically regarding the justification for tree removal with the existing driveway repair on the west side of the property. That said, since the trees were not deemed significant, it could have been reasonably feasible to meet the requirements for Criterion 1. If the Council decides to approve the annexation request, staff recommends that the applicant be required to mitigate the removal of the six trees by replanting at a minimum 1:1 ratio, using a mix of native species of medium to large stature to complement the existing Douglas-firs and ornamental trees on the neighboring properties. All mitigation trees should be carefully planted to avoid conflicts with future development on the site. It is important to note that the county certification process is typically completed prior to any tree removal and does not constitute a full evaluation or approval of an application or permit for tree removal under the City of Lake Oswego's Tree Code provisions. Daphne Cissell Associate Planner ATTACHMENTS Exhibit 1 County Type II Tree Removal Certification application; Exhibit 2 Photos and Map Images Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. AN 15-000I tA11It3I I t-S/I'AUt 4 Ur 10 Fos Tree Removal Fee: Date: I �� Certification Intake Staff: (Unincorporated Properties) OREGON As provided for in Resolution 19-59, Policies Discouraging Destruction of Natural Resources and Significant Trees Prior to Annexation, this application process allows unincorporated property owners to certify that proposed tree removal would qualify for a Lake Oswego Tree Removal Permit if the property were within the City's boundaries. This certification process does not constitute a permit granting approval of the tree removal.The property owner is responsible for obtaining any permits that may be required from the County with jurisdiction over the property. Applicant: lt/i01.tE Will(a.-kyt S Phone: SCE 3 —6(6 " FS1 a II 9 J E-mail (required): Ala c&j kfI&leo'f(.eo Property Owner: " f�' i l/ _kvt S Phone: E-mail: ! Address of Tree Removal Site: d (0 t C_l r i �1 U�• �7�3 5 Are any of the trees in the public right-of-way? 0 Yes KNo r /f Number, Size(Trunk Diameter), &Type of Tree(s)to be Removed: S S,�`f"� (04.14_ Reason for Removal: G c tar -Lc U�wp calciatrayiloi cowikke I grant permission to City of ake Oswego employees to enter the above property to inspect the trees requested for removal. a e to restr ' any dog(s)on inspection day. g ure of Property Owner(required) Signature of Applicant(required if different) TYPE I Submit: (1) Site plan (8%x 11"), (2) Printed photograph of tree(s) YPE II Submit: (1) Site plan (8%x 11"), (2)Type II Checklist, (3) Landscape plan (if applicable) To Do: (1) Mark tree(s)with ribbon O DEAD Submit: (1) Site plan (8%x 11"), (2)Printed photograph of tree(s) Deciduous trees require a site visit by staff between November 1St and April 15th. To Do: Mark the tree(s)with ribbon if a site visit is required O HAZARDOUS Submit: (1)Site plan (8%x 11"), (2) Printed photograph of tree, (3) Hazard Evaluation Form completed by a Tree Risk Assessor Qualified Arborist To Do: Mark tree(s)with ribbon if a site visit is required O EMERGENCY Submit: (1) Site plan (8%x 11"), (2) Printed photographs of tree(s) and emergency condition 0 Invasive Submit (1) Site plan (8%x 11"), (2) Printed photograph of tree(s)that dearly identify each species of tree to be removed (e.g., overall photo of tree, close ups of leaves, bark or other identifying features—See Invasive Species Identification Guide) For City Staff Use Only Review Staff: Recognized Neighborhood Assoc.: Certification of Tree Removal: Would Qualify for Removal ❑ Would Not Qualify for Removal 0 Withdrawn 0 Certification Date: _ (Save completed application in Planning Staff Resources/Trees/County Tree Removal Certifications) AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGEP5,OFn1 emit apps1CountyTree Certification Form SITE PLAN EXAMPLE FOR TREE REMOVAL CERTIFICATION A site plan is required as part of your tree removal certification request. The site plan must be on 8.5" x 11" size paper. -----_-_Lakeview_Boulevard 1 ROW ROW ITEMS TO INCLUDE ON YOUR SITE PLAN: i r ® Your property lines i 14" Maple 1 El Address of the Tree Removal Site i 14" Walnut 1 © Public Right Of Way (Include Street Name) (hazard, see hazard ® House or other Structures (Mark "Vacant" if fnone 18" Maple \ ev ation form i Creeks, Streams, or Lakes that run through or 1 \j /\ 1 border property 0 Location, Diameter Size and Type of Trees proposed for removal; mark trees to be removed I I with an "X" 1 0 The site plan may be hand-drawn or you can print out a site plan using LOMaps at the following link: )23 Lakeview Blvd. www.lakeoswego.citylLOMap. In LOMaps, type your 1 I address in the search box in the upper right side of • Ii)" Cherry the screen or use the zoom tool to zoom in on your Replant w/2 ! property. Once you have zoomed in on your property, i 1.5"red oaks click on "T"for tools at the top of the screen and —.lip. X6" Oak select "print." 1 \ 1 r r Laurel Hedge (to be pruned)_ • _ • _ ' _ • a • Staff Review Comments: AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 6 OF 15 o F�s� ,., ' TYPE II APPLICATION CHECKLIST V �� 0 Criteria for Issuance of a Type ll Tree Cutting Permit LOC 55.02.080 OREGOr� A Type II permit may only be approved if your application complies with all of the criteria in LOC 55.02.080. This checklist will assist you. City staff will review the application information and any comments received, visit the site, and then make a tentative decision. If more information is needed after the comment period has started, staff may then be required to restart the comment period, which will delay the initial decision. Please make sure to include all information and evidence to avoid this possibility. The City's Interactive Map can be used to create the required site plan (https://www.lakeoswego.city/lomap). 1. REASON FOR REMOVAL [LOC 55.02.080(1)j Reason for Removal: ❑ Outgrown Landscape Area landscape Plan/Improvement ❑ Development (check all that apply and provide additional information below or on a separate page if necessary) Tree Condition Describe Reason for Removal Tree Inches in (Good, Fair, (attach landscape plan and/or site plan for No. Species* Diameter Poor) proposed development, as applicable) ' p is 11 r � roct 014 t{;t c wa". a �� -iv sGl°�0 DF 4 Fa{r 3 DF l8`t iir I 600d vi 5 DP 50,k cExil o d,x Str r. tritCc. lit Di dye ktry -, Atii 1 19 *Don't know the tree species? Enter"unknown deciduous"or"unknown evergreen"and ttaff will attempt tcridentify�the species at the site visit. Note: If a tree is an invasive species, use an "invasive tree removal application"for removal. 2. EROSION, SURFACE WATER, AND WINDBREAK IMPACTS [LOC 55.02.080(2)] Considering proposed mitigation measures, will removal have a significant negative impact on erosion, soil stability,flow of surface waters,protection of adjacent trees, or existing windbreaks? ❑Yes 'No Please explain your answer(e.g., describe site topography, presence of surface waters, and whether the tree removal would expose nearby trees to wind throw): That a roc aol` Aros4a ff -I-114.5 a cot bc.• a 4- n c` ii hMr f rot 07 m co*(iK e 1Q1) C# eHukcnYhtn`f" Page 1 of 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 7 OF 15 3. NEIGHBORHOOD CHARACTER OR AESTHETICS IMPACTS [LOC 55.02.080(3)] Of the trees listed in Section 1 that are greater than 15"diameter, and in good or fair health,and are not invasive species,are any of those trees significant to the neighborhood due to size,species or distinctive character? ❑Yes 'No Please explain your answer(e.g., is the tree one of the biggest in the neighborhood, is it an unusual or rare species, is the tree unique in appearance and distinctive in the neighborhood, etc.): s i Svr(ov d3 arm_ -6 etio *oHe Afez x a.K&-C. Is the tree(s) proposed for removal the only remaining tree(s) on the property? ❑Yes No Will the proposed tree removal alter distinctive features or the neighborhood skyline? ❑ Yes , No Please explain your answer(e.g., is the tree prominently visible from areas within 300'of the site,will the tree removal create a significant change/gap to the treed skyline; photographs are strongly encouraged): Trtpes cut cd- -f rowt-E c pay-cd-y. La IC. r d kr) CC tce( ts u IS rbf I f mid ►to uJ .44 u -y Do any of the trees proposed for removal provide a visual screen between dissimilar zoning districts,for example between a residential and commercial zone? ❑Yes , No Provide additional details, as needed, below: Are any trees proposed for removal located in a public right of way? ❑ Yes .- No Note:The right-of-way is to the lot lines, not just the edge of the traveled area of the street/alley. Is more than 50%of a "stand"of tree proposed for removal?A"stand"is a group of trees that forms a visual and biological unit at least 15 feet in height with a contiguous crown width of at least 120 feet. ❑ Yes ....k1 o Please explain your answer and describe the measurement methodology used to make this determination: Thit S I c seftoicts cec rCJs s arts/ Yt t 5h ha it peaks asap --ks e -fr ocs arc cf -1-44 end o EXCEPTIONS TO LOC 55.02.080(3) If you checked "yes" for any of the questions under Section 3, above, you are required to complete the Exceptions Section, below; if you answered "no"to all questions under Section 3, you may elect to skip to Section 4 or you can also address an Exception as an alternative argument for removal (in case the review body disagrees). Are any trees likely to or will continue to cause damage to a permanent,viable existing structure, or to infrastructure(e.g.,utilities or paved landscape features,etc.)? . Yes ❑ No Please explain your answer and attach evidence, such as photographs, arborist report, letter from structural engineer, or other relevant information if such damage is not visible and it is not clear that the damage is being caused by the tree: ` y i{,Yt, U�too{r Goxc [ d ri ttt Wt{y [ rat i wed ctIAA Page 2 of 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 8 OF 15 if yes, can the damage be remedied through reasonable maintenance or pruning? ❑Yes ,eNo Please explain your answer and attach evidence, such as an arborist report: tt-e, c art G Uf O( G I `f- would 60k coot is.f t -- f Will 1 7-v c t J keec rf-tt f24 r , Have reasonable alternatives to the tree removal been considered, such as alternative site plans or placement of structures or alternate landscaping designs that would lessen the impact on trees the alternatives must continue to comply with other provisions of the Lake Oswego Code)? ❑ Yes .INo Please explain your answer and attach any alternative plans considered and describe why they cannot be used: Tk ` -s art Ipt. locricpaci c-Jac kaw -s ou vv-i cue) a • cc-peel-Pt adilert Lo k auk 4. VIEW ENHANCEMENT [LOC 55.02.080(4)] Is the proposed tree removal for the sole purpose of providing or enhancing views? ❑ Yes No 5. COMPLIANCE WITH OTHER CODE SECTIONS [LOC 55.02.080(5)] Is the proposed tree removal contrary to another section of the Lake Oswego Code (e.g.,Sensitive Lands requirement(LOC 50.05.010), prior condition of approval)? ❑ Yes o If yes, please list code section and reasons: 6. MITIGATION [LOC 55.02.080(6) PURSUANT TO LOC 55.02.084] Replacement trees are required for each tree removed. Minimum mitigation size: 1.5 inch caliper for deciduous and 6 feet tall for evergreen.The mitigation plan must be approved prior to permit issuance and those trees will be inspected in the field. Indicate if any of the following apply: 'Native trees on the City's Master Plant List are proposed for removal. If so, mitigation trees must also be a native species. ❑ "Significant" trees(per Section 3 above)are proposed for removal for development purposes. If so,two mitigation trees are required for each significant tree removed. ❑ Removal is for the landscaping purpose of thinning to improve the health of other trees. If so, mitigation shall be reduced to the extent there is insufficient space to replant elsewhere on the site and maintain tree health. Please explain below. ❑ There is insufficient space to plant one or more mitigation trees on-site. I request that staff verify this and allow replanting off-site on another property I own or to pay a fee into the Tree Fund in lieu of planting. Please explain below. List the proposed mitigation tree(s)species and show their locations, sizes,and species on the site plan. C5- ) 1)6'06 6.5 f is -t-rves +0( 1i ov Cacf f xq. I ri t _ t Pecil oa k. +reit J, 5 in. o� rurnt rA) cad- -EGIRct 1 irte Page 3 of 3 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 9 OF 15 • COPE BUILD NEW ATTACHED • 5S05QFT UNHEATED GARAGE , Q�� L avvt s„ r. SITE PLAN NOTES TAX LOT NO.: 21Ef5CCO2900 10 (E)MAIN HOUSE(1,550 SOFT) - BLOCK ROSEWOOD CW PATIO GOVER(311 SOFT)AND LOT: 51 �'� FALSE GABLE(I64 SOFT) SETBACKS: FRONT 25/ SIDES _ CONNECT(N)DOWNSPOUT TO(E) - I OFT/ REAR 30 4° � © STORM WATER DRAIN. Z BLDG AREA: 2,305 SOFT �� �u 1 YEAR BUILT: 1948 �$� lu►�..'. P 'Tt!] , (E�ONG FdOTPATi-I(90 SOFT) 0- fC. vI y ♦, \ (E)CONC. DRIVEWAY (1,6I3 SOFT) W MAP NO.: 2EEIBGG � Ia' �.�.. '� F_ ,' ® F ZONE: R10 , 3<', r�$ O�G vrNS (E)ACCESSORY BUILDING (456 SOFT) 1 UGBY METRO UGB WATER DIST.: RIVERGROVE ' r b (J (E)GARAGE 0,212 SOFT) APPROX ELEVATION: I65.00 FT �'� •• • , /i4,Nc,, 1' ( (E)ASHPI-4ALT DRIVEWAY(1,982 SOFT) I TEAR BUILT: 1945 �� .. .�:: •{�) a� `�r` 04. ® (E)WATER METER J� �::; Mk) /�`�' �.`'. rick {C,� _g+ ® (E)1,000 GALLON SEPTIC TANK AND ' . '•r r 1.6,0 w 1 ASSOCIATED SEWER DRAIN FIELD �( s. ;, ,;:. ©► .1 �J�l���,. �e l b ® (E)DOWNSPOUT cif, t ifs 1111Pitlit . r . .,• ?,,,4 •••)• ;'�I�Isthii a TREE NOTES IL1 Q� - tt� : �:. �' .' : t\WALNUT -18"DIA rwvfd' \ 1'' �:�. : �:::�.,. .. " . ?kawf (5), 6 tag evu� c&vt -hies 2se,���; 11 1�: ; :j::. �,c, r� i u1�f i= caf+`v rcXnvroe c•-oi mY :::.2::: •::..:;,: • • . :.": cl-,- -i--ifitc!‹ 1 i rI w NN:irt1 �- Niv._ ; iP- / . . • LINE LEGEND ,rBOUNDRY - rc m ® Twe- SETBACK - - m N Aly,l j / RD R LINE DATE `�" S WATER UNE UJ j4 GAS LINE G 311 4 12 0 2 5 GISITE PLAN SEWER UNE 5 - ate: FIRE SEP. F 0'-I° = 30 0" ELEC. SERV. E 401 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 10 OF 15 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 11 OF 15 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 12 OF 15 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 13 OF 15 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 14 OF 15 AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-3/PAGE 15 OF 15 OTC LA Of Department of Planning and Building Services - )1\ 380 A Avenue / I } Post Office Box 369 Lake Oswego, OR 97034 503-635-0290 www•ci.oswego.or.us POLICIES DISCOURAGING DESTRUCTION OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND SIGNIFICANT TREES PRIOR TO ANNEXATION This handout addresses basic questions about the City of Lake Oswego's policies on altering natural resources and removing trees prior to annexation. These policies were adopted by the City Council in 2004 and were updated in 2019. The full text of the policies is available online at www.lakeoswego.cityfplanning/annexation-program-application. If you have questions, please contact the Planning and Building Services Department at 503-635-0290. WHY DOES THE CITY HAVE THESE POLICIES?The policies are to encourage property owners interested in applying for annexation to the City to preserve and protect natural resources and significant trees on their property. The City has a protection program for hundreds of acres of stream corridors, wetlands and tree groves within the City and its potential annexation area (LOC 50.05.010 and 50.07.004.8). Properties that are not yet annexed to the City are under the jurisdiction of a county (Clackamas, Multnomah, or Washington County). Because the City has a higher level of protection for natural resources and trees than county jurisdictions, it is the community's interest to encourage all property owners within the potential annexation area to protect these resources as if the property was annexed to the City.Alterations to natural resources can contribute to erosion and water quality issues resulting in degradation of wildlife habitat, siltation buildup in waterways, and potential damage to property. When this occurs and properties are annexed, City taxpayers may become obligated to fund programs and projects to repair public infrastructure and restore the natural environment. Removal of significant trees negatively affects the appearance and livability of the community, which can negatively impact property values, as well. WHO DO THESE POLICIES APPLY TO?They apply to property owners that apply for annexation to Lake Oswego. Thus, any "unincorporated property" within Lake Oswego's potential annexation area could be affected. "Unincorporated properties" are not yet annexed to the City and are under county jurisdiction. Please contact the Planning and Building Services Department for inquiries about a specific property. Note: the policies apply to annexations that are initiated or requested by the owners of the property to be annexed and that require consent of owners or electors under ORS Chapter 222. It does not apply to annexations by election under ORS Chapters 222 or 195 or to non-consensual "island" annexations. WHAT HAPPENS IF I ALTER A STREAM OR WETLAND OR REMOVE TREES FROM MY PROPERTY?The City Council may delay annexation of your property for up to three years, require you to pay restoration fees, require you to plant and maintain resource and/or tree mitigation for three years prior to annexation and two years Page 1 of 2 - 1/06/2020 P:\Planning Staff Resources\Counter Handouts and Code Sections\Current Handouts\Natural Resource Policy AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-4/PAGE 1 OF 2 after annexation, and require posting of a maintenance bond or cash deposit during the two-year period if the City finds that, within 10 years before the date your annexation request was filed, any of the following occurred: 1. A tree from the list below was removed from your property: Species Common Name Size.(DBH*1 Quercus garryana Oregon white oak Pseudotsuga Douglas-fir 18" Thuja plicata Western red cedar 12" Pinus Ponderosa Ponderosa pine 12" Taxus Brevifolius Western Yew 06" Other deciduous trees 20" Other evergreen trees 18" "DBH is the diameter of the tree measured at 4.5 feet above the ground level. 2. A natural resource inventoried by the City has been removed or otherwise degraded beyond that which would have been clearly permitted under the City natural resource regulations; or 3. A natural resource not inventoried by the City has otherwise been degraded in violation of any state or federal law or regulation. ARE THERE EXCEPTIONS? Yes. Removal of trees that are not of a size and species listed above and are not located within an inventoried natural resource are exempt. In addition, tree removal that would have met the City of Lake Oswego's tree removal permit criteria under the City's Tree Code (Lake Oswego Code Chapter 55) is exempt. For example, if a tree of a size and species listed above were removed because it was dead or hazardous and the property owner provided sufficient documentation with the annexation petition that the tree would have qualified for a dead or hazardous tree permit, then the policies would not apply. Any person who owns unincorporated property and who proposes to remove a tree may request certification by City staff that the proposed removal would qualify for a Lake Oswego Tree Removal Permit as if the property were already annexed to the City. This certification would then satisfy the City requirement that a property owner show that the removal would have been permitted under the City's Tree Code when they apply to annex. The City charges a fee to cover administrative costs for reviewing the certification request. For information on tree removal permits in the City go to www.lakeoswego.cityLtrees.To check whether there are any City-inventoried natural resources (Sensitive Lands) on your property go to www.Iakeoswego.city(LOMap, click on the "Planning" layer in the legend, and check "Sensitive Lands." Please note that it is the property owner's responsibility to comply with any county, state or federal regulations that may apply. ISN'T THE CITY IMPOSING REGULATIONS ON PROPERTIES THAT ARE NOT UNDER ITS JURISDICTION? No. These are policies that only apply if a property owner files an application to annex their property to the City. A decision to annex a property is at the discretion of the City Council. Until annexed to the City, an unincorporated property is subject to the regulations of the applicable county jurisdiction and any applicable state or federal laws. Page 2 of 2 - 1/06/2020 P:\Planning Staff Resources\Counter Handouts and Code Sections\Current Handouts\Natural Resource Policy AN 25-0002 EXHIBIT E-4/PAGE 2 OF 2