HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Item - 2025-07-15 - Number 08.2 - South Shore Fire Station - Polling Update - Presentation 8.2
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Lake Oswego Voter Views of
Replacing the South Shore Fire Station
Key Findings of a Survey Conducted June 3-10, 2025
F IV 3 OPINION
RESEARCH
RESEARCH & STRATEGY
220-7588
Survey Methodology
Dates June 3-10, 2025
Survey Type Dual-mode Voter Survey
Research Population Likely 2026 Voters in Lake Oswego
Total Interviews 410
Margin of Sampling Error (Full Sample) ±4.9% at the 95% Confidence Level
(Half Sample) ±6.9% at the 95% Confidence Level
Contact Methods s Telephone Text
Calls Invitations
itp
Telephone _°R Online
Data Collection Modes Interviews ' __ Interviews
F JP 3 (Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding)
RESEARCH 2
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Context
3
Most in lake Oswego believe things
are headed in the right direction .
Would you say things in Lake Oswego are headed in the right direction,
or do you feel they are pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right
Direction
57%
11.1
Don't Wrong
Is Know Track
22% 21%
F M 3 Q1'
RESEARCH 4
Views of a Ballot Measure
More than half of voters initially support a bond
measure to rebuild the South Shore Fire Station .
Shall Lake Oswego rebuild an earthquake-safe South Shore Fire Station to improve emergency response throughout
the community by issuing bonds? If bonds are approved, they will be payable from taxes on
property ownership that are not subject to the limits of Sections 11 and 11b, Article XI of the Oregon Constitution.
Definitely yes 28% Total
Probably yes 17% Yes
Undecided, lean yes 8/ 54%
Undecided, lean no 6% Total
Probably no 9/ No
Definitely no 20% 35%
Undecided 11%
Fm 3 Q2. Would you vote yes or no on this measure?
RESEARCH 6
Majorities of men and women support the measure,
as do seniors and voters under 40.
Initial Vote by Gender & Age
Total Total
• Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes Undecided Undecided, Lean No Probably No Definitely No Yes No
Men 28% 16% 11% 10% 5% 9% 20% 56% 15%
Women 28% 18% 6% 13% 7% 10% 19°. 52% 35%
al
18-39 20% 25% 19% 5% 5% 7% 18% 65% 30%
40-49 23% 16% 8% 21% 6% 10% 17% 47% 33%
50-64 27% 14% • ' 11% 9% 12% 22% 46% 43%
65+ 34% 16% 7% 11% 4% 8% 20% 58% 32%
Fm 3 Q2. Would you vote yes or no on this measure?
RESEARCH 7
Three-quarters of progressive and liberal voters support the bond;
moderate and conservative voters are split.
Initial Vote by Ideology & Party
• Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes • Undecided Undecided, Lean No Probably No Definitely No Total Total
Yes No
Progressives 37% 27°° 12% 11% 8% 76% 13%
Liberals 36% 26% 13% iL 4% °, 76% 10%
Moderates 27% 1°0 6% 13% 9% 11% 24% 43% 44%
Conservatives 18% 8% 7% 61 8% 10% 33% 43% 51%
Democrats 32% 22% 12% 11% 5% 11% 66% 23%
Independents 25% 13% 9% 14%-1. 7% 10% 22% 47% 39%
Republicans 23% 11% 8% 7% 14% 34% 36% 56%
Fm 3 Q2. Would you vote yes or no on this measure?
RESEARCH 8
Lower-turnout election scenarios show slightly stronger support.
Initial Vote by Vote Frequency
• Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes Undecided Undecided, Lean No Probably No Definitely No Total Total
Participated in 1+ of the Last 6 Yes No
Primary or General Elections 28% MIMS 8% 12% 6% 10% 20% 53% 36%
2+ 28% 16% 9% 12% 6% 9% 19% 53% 35%
r
3+ 28% 16% 9% 12% 6% 10% 19% 53% 35%
CD
4+ 29% 17% 8% 13% 7% 10% 53% 34%
3
0
5+ 31% 17% 7% 16% 5% 8% 55% 29%
6+ 37% 18% 6% 14% 3% 7% 61% 26%
F M 3
RESEARCH 9
Many voters who typically support finance measures are initially
softly supportive or undecided on this one.
Softly Supportive and
Undecided Voters
These voters are disproportionately:
• Progressive/liberal independents
• Liberal voters
• Progressive/liberal Democrats
• Democratic men
o • Democrats under age 55
\ 3 7
o • Progressives
• Ages 18-39
• Non-college educated men
Fm 3 Q2. Would you vote yes or no on this measure?
RESEARCH 10
Supporters of a bond cite the impact of a new
fire station on reliable emergency response.
In a few words of your own, why would you vote YES on this measure?
(Open-ended; Asked of Yes Voters Only, n=220)
Public safety/reliable emergency response 31%
Safe work environments for first responders/firefighters 16%
Disaster/earthquake preparedness 15%
Updated/modern infrastructure 14%
General support for public infrastructure 11%
Rapid emergency response times 10%
Growth/changing needs of the community 10%
Live near/served by this fire station 6%
Mixed feelings (e.g. support with accountability/efficiency) - 3%
Other _ 5%
F M 3 Q3a'
RESEARCH 11
Opponents are against taxes increases in principle.
In a few words of your own, why would you vote NO on this measure?
(Open-ended; Asked of No Voters Only, n=143)
Taxes are too high (general) 45%
Waste/mismanagement/no trust in government 21%
Don't need a new/upgraded fire station 18%
Other priorities are more important 11%
Do not support property taxes 10%
Earthquake chances are low 3%
Other 11%
Don't know/Unsure 1%
FM 3 Q3b.
RESEARCH 12
Voters next heard or saw a brief description
of what the measure would do.
The measure would authorize up to $25 million in principal amount of general
obligation bonds for modernization of the South Shore Fire Station, one of the city's
four fire stations. If approved, it would finance capital costs to:
• Construct an earthquake-safe fire station to replace the current station,
which currently does not meet current seismic standards as an essential facility;
• Provide dedicated space for decontamination areas to help limit carcinogenic
exposure for firefighters;
• Add living quarters for increased staffing during emergency or natural disaster;
and
• Create ADA-accessible community space for meetings, educational programs,
emergency preparedness, and firefighter training.
Fm 3 Q4. Having heard this, would you vote yes or no?
RESEARCH 13
This information lifts support to nearly three in five.
Initial Vote After Information
Definitely yes 28% Total 35% Total
Probably yes 17/ Yes 19/o Yes
54% 59%
Undecided, lean yes 8% 5%
Undecided, lean no 6% Total 3�° Total
Probably no 9/ No 6% No
35% 27%
18/
Definitely no 20% °
Undecided 11% 14%
F 1i,p 3 Q2 would you vote yes or no on this measure?
Q4. Having heard this, would you vote yes or no?
RESEARCH 14
Voter Priorities and
Willingness to Pay
There is no real difference in support between $25 million
and $ 18 million overall bond amounts.
Total Total
•Very Willing Somewhat Willing Don't Know Somewhat Unwilling Very Unwilling Willing Unwilling
$18 million 41% 10% 9% 61% 30%
$20 million 39% 9% 12% 20% 59% 32%
$22 million 38% 8% 12% 19% 60% 31%
• Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes Undecided Undecided, Lean No • Probably No Definitely No Total Total
Yes No
$25 million 35% 5% 14% 6% 59% 27%
Q4. Having heard this, would you vote yes or no?
F M 3 QS. Please indicate whether you would be very willing,somewhat willing,somewhat unwilling,or very unwilling to support each of the following overall bond amounts for the South Shore Fire Station.
Asked of xxx
RESEARCH 16
There is a greater distinction when it comes to household amounts,
with two-thirds willing to pay as much as $ 100 per year.
• Very Willing Somewhat Willing Don't Know Somewhat Unwilling Very Unwilling Total Total
Willing Unwilling
$100 47% 6% 11% 66% 29%
$150 38% 6% 12% I 61% 33%
$200 25% 29% 6% 17% 24% 54% 40%
$250 22% 29% 6% 18% 25% 51% 42%
F M 3 Q6. Please indicate whether you would be very willing,somewhat willing,somewhat unwilling,or very unwilling to pay each of the following amounts per household per year in additional taxes for
the South Shore Fire Station.
RESEARCH 17
Voters especially value outcomes like supporting response times,
response to critical incidents, and disaster response.
Uses of Funds
Extremely/Very
• Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not At All Important Don't Know Important
Supporting emergency medical response times 45% 29% 16% 5% 74%
Supporting citywide response to critical fires,
accidents, and medical emergencies
45% 29% 16% 4% 74%
Providing decontamination areas to help limit 37° 33% 16% 4% 70%
firefighter exposure to carcinogens �
Supporting disaster response 41% 29°0 20% 4% 69%
Supporting response to fire and emergency medical calls to
Lake Oswego Recreation & Aquatic Center, Luscher Farm, 35% 29% 24% 4% 64%
Lakeridge High School, and other large community facilities
Supporting hazardous materials incident response 32% 29% 2 ' 12° 6% 62%
Supporting wildland-urban interface fire response 31% 29% 25% 9% 6% 60%
F M 3 Q7 Here is a list of some of the specific kinds of investments this measure could make. Please indicate how important each would be to you:extremely important, very important,somewhat important, or not at all
important. Not Part of Split Sample
RESEARCH 18
More than half also value an earthquake-safe station with updated wiring,
repairing the leaky roof and providing space for increased staffing.
Uses of Funds
Extremely/Very
• Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not At All Important Don't Know Important
Constructing an earthquake-safe fire station 30% 21% 4% 57%
*Replacing the current station, which has outdated 24% 55%
and deteriorating electrical wiring 32% 4'
Supporting technical rescue operations 23% 26% co 9% 55%
*Replacing the current station, which has a leaky roof 31% 23% 23% 17% 54%
*Providing storage for personal protective equipment
for firefighters 25% 29% 30% 12% 54%
Providing space for increased staffing during an 23% 30% 28% 14% 53%
emergency or natural disaster
*Providing storage for modern medical and
firefighting tools and equipment 28% 24% 32% 10° 6% 52%
F M 3 Q7 Here is a list of some of the specific kinds of investments this measure could make. Please indicate how important each would be to you:extremely important, very important,somewhat important, or not at all
important. *Split Sample
RESEARCH 19
They are less urgently concerned with access to community rooms
for people with disabilities and replacing outdated locker rooms.
Uses of Funds
Extremely/Very
• Extremely Important Very Important Somewhat Important Not At All Important • Don't Know Important
*Replacing the current station, which has outdated 26% 29% 5% 51%
and deteriorating plumbing
Supporting water and dive rescue operations 22% 32% Eh 5 51%
*Replacing the current station, which has outdated 29% 19% 32% 14% �% 48%
and deteriorating heating and air conditioning
Replacing the South Shore Fire Station 22% 22% 25°0 22% . '0 45%
*Providing private living space, including individual
showers and bathrooms for firefighters 20% 24% '0 13% 44%
Improving access to community rooms for 13% 24% 35% 22% 37%
people with disabilities
*Replacing outdated group locker rooms and /
bathroom facilities with individual, private facilities 12% 15% 33% 33% 7% 27°
F M 3 Q7 Here is a list of some of the specific kinds of investments this measure could make. Please indicate how important each would be to you:extremely important, very important,somewhat important, or not at all
important. *Split Sample
RESEARCH 20
Voters like all funds being spent directly on the
project as well as independent annual audits.
Potential Accountability Elements
■ Total More Likely Total Less Likely Difference
All funds spent directly on this project 69% +63%
Independent annual audits of City budget and bond spending 66% 6% +60%
Providing no money for salaries or pensions 47% 11% +36%
FM 3 Q8. Here are some potential elements that could be included in the measure to enhance accountability.Please indicate if including that element would make you more likely or less likely to vote yes on the measure.
RESEARCH 21
Messaging and Movement
Information and positive messages lift support to three in five
while increasing the "definitely yes" vote to more than one-third .
• Definitely Yes Probably Yes Undecided, Lean Yes • Undecided Undecided, Lean No • Probably No Definitely No Total Total
Yes No
Initial Vote 28% 8% 11% 6% 9% 54% 35%
A ada
After Information 35% 19% 5% 14% 6% 18% 59% 27%
After Positive Messages 36% 16% 6% 11% 8% 22% 58% 31%
After Positives and Negatives 31% 15% 8% 13% 24% 54% 33%
Q2. Would you vote yes or no on this measure?
F M 3 Q4. Having heard this, would you vote yes or no?
Q10& Q12. Please consider the measure to replace South Shore Fire Station by issuing up to$25 million in general obligation bonds again. Would you vote yes or no?
RESEARCH 23
Segmenting the Electorate
by Consistency of Support
❖ Consistent Yes: Voters who consistently indicated they would vote
"yes" on the measure: disproportionately progressives, liberals,
renters, Democrats ages 55+, and voters with some college or less.
Consistent
❖ Consistent No• Voters who consistently indicated they would vote No
22%
"no" on the measure: disproportionately Republicans, those served Consistent
by Jean Road Fire Station, moderates and independent men. Yes
46%
❖ Swing: Voters who do not fall into any of the other categories — Swing
remaining consistently undecided or switching positions: 32%
disproportionately independent women, those served by the Main
Fire Station, household incomes over $200,000, independents ages
55+, Republicans under age 55, and conservatives.
F M 3
RESEARCH 24
Positive Messaging Tested
Ranked by Very Convincing
(MINUTES/COVERAGE) In a house fire, property destruction generally exceeds 50% after just 8 minutes of
52w burning. And in a medical emergency like a heart attack, every minute counts — that's why Lake Oswego sends
firefighters from two stations to critical calls. The South Shore Fire Station provides firefighting and emergency
medical coverage for all areas of the city.
(WITHOUT) Lake Oswego's four fire stations provide critical medical, fire, and emergency services within minutes
52% for every resident of the city. With one less station, response times will increase beyond the current standard of
8 minutes or less — risking lives and property. Voting "yes" keeps response times low and our community safe.
(SIZE) Currently, only one of Lake Oswego's fire stations can fit a traditional fire truck — and the South Shore
47% station does not have enough room for modern medical and firefighting tools and equipment. By upgrading
South Shore Fire Station to modern standards, we can provide a critical backup location for life-saving equipment.
(AGE) The South Shore Fire Station was built in 1971 — it is not earthquake safe and does not meet modern
440i10 disability access standards. It has a leaky roof, outdated electrical wiring and plumbing, and failing heating and
cooling systems. Our firefighters and our community deserve a safe, modern fire station.
FM 3 Q9. Please indicate whether you find it very convincing,somewhat convincing,or not convincing as a reason to support the measure.
RESEARCH 25
Positive Messaging Continued
Ranked by Very Convincing
(DECONTAMINATE) The current South Shore Fire Station has no dedicated space for firefighters returning from
43% calls to decontaminate and store personal protection equipment, which increases risk of exposure to carcinogens.
Our firefighters deserve facilities that can reduce their risk of exposure to hazardous materials as they protect us.
(WILDFIRE) Communities like ours are facing new challenges in the era of extreme wildfires that quickly spread to
38% homes — and that's especially true for the south side of town near the Stafford area. This measure would protect
our community by ensuring rapid response and coverage for high-risk areas.
(BOAT) Our fire department responds to water emergencies on the Willamette River, Clackamas River,
259'o and Lake Oswego — and the South Shore Station hosts our city's only rescue boat. A new, updated station would
provide safe storage for the Rescue Boat and all emergency tools and equipment.
(COMMUNITY) A new South Shore Fire Station will include a classroom for training and skill-building in CPR,
25% first aid, and fire prevention. The station can also serve as a center for information and assistance in case of
emergency or disaster. Voting "yes" will strengthen our whole community's preparation and response.
FM 3 Q9. Please indicate whether you find it very convincing,somewhat convincing,or not convincing as a reason to support the measure.
RESEARCH 26
Stressing the impacts of the station replacement on emergency
response times and its current size and age are compelling.
■ Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing
Minutes/Coverage 53% A 77%
Without 52% 25% 76%
Size 47% 27% 74%
Age 44% 24% 69%
Decontaminate 43% 35% 78%
Wildfire 38% 36% 74%
Boat 25% 41% ' 66%
Community 25% 35% 60%
FN 3 Q9. Please indicate whether you find it very convincing,somewhat convincing,or not convincing as a reason to support the measure.
RESEARCH 27
Emergency response times stand out for swing voters.
Very Convincing
Statement Party Targets Fire Station
All
Voters Dems Inds Reps CYesons Swing Cons No JeanRoad
Main SouthShore Westlake
Minutes/Coverage 53% 62% 48% 41% 79% 48% 9% 49% 47% 61% 55%
Without 52% 61% 46% 40% 80% 41% 9% 46% 54% 63% 46%
Size 47% 56% 41% 35% 74% 38% 4% 44% 38% 55% 47%
Age 44% 53% 38% 34% 73% 32% 3% 36% 35% 55% 48%
Decontaminate 43% 50% 40% 33% 72% 31% 2% 40% 31% 55% 44%
Wildfire 38% 46% 32% 29% 62% 28% 3% 38% 26% 53% 35%
Boat 25% 28% 24% 18% 41% 18% 2% 26% 19% 33% 22%
Community 25% 24% 30% 20% 43% 15% 2% 26% 19% 27% 26%
FN 3 Q9. Please indicate whether you find it very convincing,somewhat convincing,or not convincing as a reason to support the measure.
RESEARCH 28
Negative Messaging Tested
Ranked by Very Convincing
33% A(COST/ANTI-TAX The cost of living is skyrocketing, and our taxes are already too high. We just can't afford
more taxes right now.
31% (DEBT) Because it is a long-term bond, this measure will cost taxpayers too much for too long. We shouldn't
pay for decades, leaving debt to our children and grandchildren.
29% (RFNfVOTE) Rather than asking us to pay for new facility, the City should present us with a plan to repair the
station we already have. Voting "no" sends a message that the city should live within their means.
18% (UNCERTAIN) With experts saying the economy is likely to enter another recession soon, now is the
wrong time for this measure.
SCA (CLOSE We just don't need four fire stations and all the costly equipment and staff that come with them.
We should let South Shore close.
FM 3 Q11. Please indicate whether you find each statement from opponents very convincing,somewhat convincing,or not convincing as a reason to vote no. ^Not Part of Split Sample
RESEARCH 29
Conclusions & Recommendations
Conclusions & Recommendations
• A bond measure to replace the South Shore Fire Station with an earthquake-safe station to
support emergency response times is viable for a 2026 ballot.
■ More than half say they would vote "yes" based on ballot title and caption alone. Although a
significant share are softly supportive initially, three in five support the measure with a brief
explanation.
■ Broad shares are willing to support a bond of as much as $25 million overall, and are willing to
pay $150 per household per year to replace the South Shore Fire Station.
■ Negative arguments reduce support — demonstrating the need to avoid well-organized
opposition.
• Communications should focus on the outcomes of a new station : supporting emergency medical
response times; disaster response; and citywide response to critical fires, accidents and medical
emergencies.
• Messaging that shares specifics such as the need for decontamination area for firefighters, the
age and condition of the current station, and the impacts of fast response times for housefires
and heart attacks are also highly persuasive.
F M 3
RESEARCH 31
IF NI 11
Miranda Everitt
Miranda@FM3research.com
RESEARCH
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