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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Packet - 2025-10-07 AGENDA 0ai)kt CITY COUNCIL MEETING , Tuesday, October 7, 2025 0 5:30 p.m. City Hall Council Chamber—3rd Floor oRE�o� 380 A Avenue, Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Staff Contact: LauraI Hawkins, CityRecorder@LakeOswego.City Virtual Access ADA Accommodation Requests Translation Services This meeting will be held in lakeoswego.city/accommodation Traduccion o interpretacion person.To participate remotely, 503-635-0282; Relay 711 111ti*51•* please email the City Recorder by Please allow four business days to noon the day of the meeting. process your request. 503-534-5738 5 This meeting will be livestreamed on the City's YouTube Channel and at lakeoswego.city. The meeting will also be broadcasted live on Tualatin Valley Community TV; check tvctv.org for details. 1. SWEARING IN CEREMONY 2. CALL TO ORDER (to take place at approximately 6:00 p.m.) 3. ROLL CALL 4. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE 5. PRESENTATIONS 5.1 Proclamation— Meals on Wheels Month 5.2 Proclamation— Indigenous People's Day: October 13 6. PUBLIC COMMENT The purpose of Public Comment is to allow community members to present information or raise an issue regarding items not on the agenda or regarding agenda items that do not include a public hearing.A time limit of three minutes per individual shall apply. Public Comment will not exceed thirty minutes in total, unless changed by the Mayor. If you are unable to attend the meeting and prefer to provide public comment in writing, by phone or electronically, please email the City Recorder by noon the day of the meeting. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO Box 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 7. CONSENT AGENDA The Consent Agenda allows the City Council to consider items that require no discussion.An item may only be discussed if it is pulled from the Consent Agenda.The City Council makes one motion covering all items included on the Consent Agenda. Motion: Move to adopt the Consent Agenda. 7.1 Ordinance 2968, Annexing 2405 Knaus Road—AN 25-0005 Motion: Move to enact Ordinance 2968. 7.2 Resolution 25-42, Creating and Approving Appointments to the Foothills District Technical Advisory Committee Motion: Move to adopt Resolution 25-42. 7.3 Amendment to IGA with LOSD Regarding the Usage of the LORAC Motion: Move to authorize the Mayor to sign the amendment to the intergovernmental agreement between the City of Lake Oswego and Lake Oswego School District No. 7.1— Recreation and Aquatics Center Use and Lease Agreement. 8. ITEMS REMOVED FROM CONSENT AGENDA 9. CONSENT AGENDA—Councilors Only Only Councilors vote to concur in the Mayor's appointments of committee members, per Charter Section 19. 9.1 Resolution 25-44, Appointing Advisory Board Members Motion: Move to adopt Resolution 25-44. 10. COUNCIL BUSINESS 10.1 Respond to Racism and Arts Council of Lake Oswego Public Art Project at Lake Oswego Public Library Motion: Move to approve the selection of Sahara Aylanna Defrees to be the artist for phase one of the Respond to Racism and Arts Council of Lake Oswego public art project at the Lake Oswego Public Library. 11. PUBLIC HEARINGS 11.1 Ordinance 2969, Annexing 210 Birdshill Road and the Public Right-of-Way—AN 25-0006 Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO Box 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 Public Hearing Process: 1. Review of hearing procedure by Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney 2. Staff Report by Paul Espe, Associate Planner 3. Testimony—the following time limits shall be observed, but may be changed by the Council: 10 minutes for representatives of recognized neighborhood associations, homeowner associations, government agencies, or other incorporated public interest organizations; 5 minutes per individual 4. Questions of Staff 11.2 Ordinance 2970, Annexing 13092 Amber Place and the Public Right-of-Way—AN 25- 0007 Public Hearing Process: 1. Review of hearing procedure by Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney 2. Staff Report by Paul Espe, Associate Planner 3. Testimony—the following time limits shall be observed, but may be changed by the Council: 10 minutes for representatives of recognized neighborhood associations, homeowner associations, government agencies, or other incorporated public interest organizations; 5 minutes per individual 4. Questions of Staff Motion: Move to enact Ordinance 2970. 12. STUDY SESSION 12.1 Solid Waste and Recycling Rate Review 12.2 Home Occupation Standards— LU 25-0002 13. INFORMATION FROM COUNCIL 14. REPORTS OF OFFICERS 15. ADJOURNMENT Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO Box 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY �tiA � 0 5.1 w� REDO Proclamation Meals on Wheels Month WHEREAS, there is a need to assure that no senior goes hungry or suffers from social isolation in Lake Oswego; and WHEREAS, the need for home delivered meals will only increase as nearly 44% of Lake Oswego residents are 50 and older; and WHEREAS, 95% of seniors want to remain independent and in their own homes as they age; and WHEREAS, Meals on Wheels allows seniors to stay in their home at least two years longer; and WHEREAS, the program was started in Lake Oswego in 1972 by seven people; and WHEREAS, the City of Lake Oswego memorialized its commitment to Meals on Wheels in 2004 by partnering with the nonprofit board Lake Oswego Meals on Wheels; and WHEREAS, the program engages 155 Lake Oswego volunteers in meaningful service to others; and WHEREAS, there are more than 18,000 from scratch, nutritionally balanced meals served annually to senior and disabled Lake Oswegans each year. NOW,THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that we, the Lake Oswego City Council, proclaim the month of October 2025 as Meals on Wheels Month in Lake Oswego, and urge all citizens to celebrate older adults and the Lake Oswego Meals on Wheels program that supports healthy aging in Lake Oswego. Joseph M. Buck, Mayor October 7, 2025 J 5.2 Proclamation OREGOY Indigenous Peoples' Day WHEREAS,the area now known as the City of Lake Oswego lies on the ancestral and contemporary lands of the Clackamas, Chinook, Clowewalla,Tualatin, Molalla, Multnomah, Siltez and Kalapuya peoples, who have lived here since time immemorial; and WHEREAS, Indigenous communities have endured centuries of colonization, displacement, exploitation and systemic racism at the hands of institutions and governments, including the impacts of the Oregon Donation Land Act of 1850 and the Willamette Valley Treaty of 1855,whose effects remain visible today; and WHEREAS,the City of Lake Oswego recognizes the historical, cultural, ecological and contemporary significance of Indigenous peoples and their lasting contributions to our community; and WHEREAS, Indigenous Peoples' Day offers an opportunity to reflect on the resilience, sovereignty and invaluable contributions of Indigenous peoples, to engage in meaningful dialogue about the disproportionate challenges Indigenous communities continue to face and to reaffirm our collective responsibility to advance equity and justice; and WHEREAS,the City of Lake Oswego recognizes that the observance of Indigenous Peoples' Day can serve as a meaningful call for residents to learn about, honor and celebrate Indigenous cultures, histories and ongoing contributions to our society; NOW,THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED,that we, the Lake Oswego City Council, proclaim October 13, 2025, as Indigenous People's Day in the City of Lake Oswego and encourage all residents to join in recognizing, honoring and celebrating cultures, resilience and sovereignty of Indigenous peoples. Let this day serve as a reminder of our shared responsibility to acknowledge the truths of the past, honor the presence and leadership of Indigenous peoples today and commit ourselves to building a more inclusive, respectful and equitable future for all. Joseph M. Buck, Mayor October 7, 2025 7.1 o�� E 0 COUNCIL REPORT li4 pi4.. V —� 0 OREGO� Subject: Ordinance 2968, Annexing property at 2405 Knaus Road (AN 25-0005) Report Date: September 17, 2025 Staff Member: Paul Espe, Associate Planner Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Department: Planning and Building Services Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑X Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: This annexation is being processed as an ❑ Council Direction expedited decision under Metro Code 3.09.045 (A-E) ❑X Consent Agenda Staff Recommendation: Enact Ordinance 2968. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to enact Ordinance 2968. Project/ Issue Relates To: Annexation of residential property to the city. Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable EXECUTIVE SUMMARY/BACKGROUND The proposed annexation is owner-initiated and will result in the addition of approximately 0.31 acres of residential land to the City. This Council Report describes the reasons for the annexation and provides basic background information. This annexation will result in property that will be zoned R-3 High Density Residential as designated in the Comprehensive Plan shown in Attachment A. The criteria for approving annexations and findings in support of this annexation are included in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 (Ordinance 2968). Owner/Applicant: Eric and Donna Sullivan; Lou Pacino, Sinclair Construction Location/Size: North side of Knaus Road, approximately 200 feet east of the intersection of Knaus Road and Boones Ferry Road /0.31 acres (13,504 square feet). Respect. Excellence. Trust. Servic 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 . 12896 1 i n ity Map 12802 _COUNTY '2�9 J MESON RIDGE — — - `� , 262 TOWNHOUSI '3 N I AKE OSWEGO �� 4 COIIDOS a 12810 12814 12812 N 28 1269, �269: Proposed '34z w 12819 O 12822 12826 12830 1: ,:a42 �N; — LAKE OSWEGJ aC Annexation S� --- - _ _ _ .848 N 5'a COUNTY L. I — ..84P 12842 p p 'A Ln r'l T'"•T 12831Ci- 12838 12834I 12 MTI1 PARK cOUr1TY MARKETPLACE c L .. N Q - L AKE OSWI GO — — — a w w 1 ? cn 0 0 0 8 I o 12850 C w w :., c - g J Knaus Road 13001 i v c 1304' �'1 ,r0i g 13040 Z p w 6 g- w .i 76 fcq r.. — 7 O 02 A �C� QJ )O N C O c A O Iig � 13050 1 31"l0 - 7 I N I N N 13151 p 13156 13132 -_. W I ^ — faN I 3`/ 13175 13170 I 0NI GREET I pinc4F13070 / > `l Existing Land Use: Tax Map/Lot 21E04BB02300 contains a single-family dwelling that takes access from Knaus Road. Neighborhood: Forest Highlands Neighborhood Purpose of Annexation: Owner initiated annexation to connect to city sanitary service. DISCUSSION Plan and Zone Designation:The subject property is currently under Clackamas County's jurisdiction and zoned Low-Density Residential R-20. It is designated R-3, High Density Residential on the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map and will be zoned R-3, pursuant to LOC 50.01.004.5.a-c. Development Potential: Based on the size and shape of the parcel, and the R-3 zoning the parcel may be divided into approximately eight lots. Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Statewide Goal 10 Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter Statewide Planning Goal 10 (and the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Goal in the City Comprehensive Plan) ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units, the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries, and to provide greater certainty in the development process so as to reduce housing costs. Respect. Excellence. Trust. ServiceAN 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 Staff has provided findings (Exhibit A-1, Attachment B) that the proposed annexation and designation of City R-3 zoning are consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the Housing Needs Analysis (HNA). The proposal would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA, is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan, and therefore complies with Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing. (See Attachment B for the complete findings under Goal 10). Sewer and Water Service: Sanitary sewer service is available from an 8-inch collection line in Knaus Road along the site frontage. The Engineering Staff has confirmed that this sewer main can provide public sanitary sewer service to this property and any future development of the site. A minimum 4-inch lateral would be required within the right-of-way to connect to the mainline, and a two-way clean-out shall be positioned at the right-of-way line. The tap will not be permitted to go to directly to the manhole. Any on-site work would involve decommissioning the existing septic tank (removal, or filling with sand or gravel). All work would be done by private contractors. Note: The Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards that would apply for the possible future land division, which will be prepared as a part of the pre-application conference for any future land division. Water is available from a 6-inch City water main located in Knaus Road along the site frontage that can provide water service for future development. The nearest existing fire hydrant is located at the north side of Knaus Road near the eastern property line. Individual private water services would be required at the time of future development, unless exempt. A new connection will be charged the applicable System Development Charge (SDC) when the individual service is made for a new home at the time of building permit issuance. Surface Water Management: Once the property is annexed, it will be subject to the City's stormwater management regulations. Any new development will be subject to these provisions, which ensure that new development does not have an adverse effect on adjoining properties and does not overburden the City stormwater system. Service Districts: Upon annexation, the property will, by operation of ORS 222.520, be withdrawn from the Lake Grove Fire District#57 (per July 2003 urban service agreement; no bonded debt) and the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District (no bonded debt) but will remain in the Lake Grove Park District (per July 2003 urban service agreement), and the Library District of Clackamas County (per 2009 County IGA). Transportation: The City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Knaus Road is identified in the City's Transportation System Plan as a Neighborhood Collector and is under the jurisdiction and permitting authority of the City of Lake Oswego. The nearest mass transit service is Tri-Met bus line 78, which operates between downtown Lake Oswego and the Tigard and Beaverton Transit Centers. Service can be accessed at the intersection of Boones Ferry and Country Club Roads. Respect. Excellence. Trust. ServiceAN 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 4 The draft findings provided in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 conclude that the proposed annexation complies with all applicable State statutes and Metro code requirements. FISCAL IMPACT The estimated assessed value of the residential property is $323,651. The estimated tax revenue after the parcel is annexed is $837. RECOMMENDATION Approve AN 25-0005 (Ordinance 2968). EXHIBITS A. Draft Ordinances AN 25-0005: A-1 Ordinance 2968 (Draft Annexation, 09/17/25) Attachment A: Map of Proposed Annexation, 09/10/25 Attachment B: Criteria, Findings, Conclusion, and Effective Date, 09/17/25 B. Minutes None. C. Staff Reports None. D. Graphics/Plans None. E. Written Materials E-1 Housing Needs Analysis 2023 (Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10), 09/21/23 (due to size, use link below to view this exhibit) LINK TO PUBLIC RECORDS FOLDER FOR THIS CASE https://apps.lakeoswego.city/WebLink/Browse.aspx?id=2979514&repo=CityOfLakeOswego Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. Ak 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY DRAFT: 09/17/2025 ORDINANCE 2968 AN ORDINANCE ANNEXING TO THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ONE PARCEL, CONSISTING OF 0.31 ACRES AT 2405 KNAUS ROAD; DECLARING CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ZONING OF R-3, PURSUANT TO LOC 50.01.004.5(a-c); AND REMOVING THE TERRITORY FROM CERTAIN DISTRICTS (AN 25- 0005). WHEREAS, annexation to the City of Lake Oswego of the territory shown in the map in Attachment "A" and described below, would constitute a contiguous boundary change under ORS 222.111, initiated by petition from the property owners as outlined in ORS 222.111(2); and, WHEREAS, the City has provided written notification of this annexation as required under ORS 222.120(3); and, WHEREAS, the City has received consent for the proposed annexation from all of the property owners and not less than 50 percent of the electors residing in the territory, as outlined in ORS 222.125; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Lake Grove Fire District #57 district boundaries and the district has no bonded debt, and pursuant to the July 2003 urban service agreement between the City and the district the territory should be withdrawn from the district, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), the territory shall be withdrawn from that district immediately upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District boundaries, which serves unincorporated property within Clackamas County, and the district has no bonded debt, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), and the territory shall be withdrawn from the district upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, LOC 50.01.004.5 specifies that, where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific Zoning Map designation to be placed on the territory annexed to the City, such a zoning designation shall automatically be imposed on the territory as of the effective date of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, this annexation is consistent with the Urbanization Chapter of the City of Lake Oswego's acknowledged Comprehensive Plan, Oregon Revised Statutes 222.111(2), 222.120 and 222.125 for boundary changes, and Metro Code Sections 3.09.030 (A-C), 3.09.040(A)(1-4) and 3.09.050. Ordinance 2968,AN 25-0005 (21E04BB02300) PAGE 1 OF 3 DRAFT: 09/17/2025 Now,therefore,the City of Lake Oswego ordains as follows: Section 1. The real property described as follows is hereby annexed to the City of Lake Oswego: A tract of land located within the northwest quarter of Section 4, Township 2 South, Range 1 East of the Willamette Meridian, City of Lake Oswego, Clackamas County, Oregon; said tract of land being part of Lots 29 and 30, Alto Park Acres (Plat No. 448), plat records of Clackamas County; said tract of land being all of that property conveyed to Eric Sullivan by Warranty Deed recorded September 6, 2024, in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Recording No. 2024-032930; said tract of land more particularly described as follows: Beginning at an iron pipe at the southeast corner of said Lot 29, said iron pipe being on the northerly right-of-way line of Knaus Road (County Road No. 1796), 20.00 feet northerly from the centerline thereof when measured at right angles; Thence leaving said right-of-way line, North 0°11' East along the easterly line of said Lots 29 and 30, 198.24 feet to an iron pipe; Thence leaving said easterly line, North 89°31' West, 53.77 feet to an iron pipe; Thence South 7°59' West, 200.03 feet to an iron pipe on the northerly right-of-way line of said Knaus Road; Thence South 89°31' East along said right-of-way line, 81.18 feet, more or less, to the point of beginning. The annexed territory is depicted on Attachment A. Section 2. The above Recitals are incorporated. Section 3. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be retained within these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Lake Grove Park District Clackamas County Library District Section 4. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be withdrawn from these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Lake Grove Fire District#57 Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District Section 5. In accordance with LOC 50.01.004.5, the City zoning designation of R-3, shall be applied to the subject properties on the effective date of annexation, as shown on Attachment A. Section 6. The City Council hereby adopts the findings of fact and conclusions set forth in Attachment B in support of this annexation ordinance. Ordinance 2968,AN 25-0005 (21E04BB02300) PAGE 2 OF 3 DRAFT: 09/17/2025 Section 7. Effective Dates: a. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C, this ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. b. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177, this annexation shall be effective upon the later of either: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State. Provided, however, that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any city, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Read by title only and enacted at the regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego held on the 7th day of October, 2025. AYES: NOES: ABSTAIN: EXCUSED: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor Dated ATTEST: Laura) Hawkins, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney Ordinance 2968,AN 25-0005 (21E04BB02300) PAGE 3 OF 3 Annexation to the City of Lake Oswego N AN 25-0005/Ordinance 2968 Cla 12896 L `Y' Cr -0 NC : R-3 2 N N Min co % I �a ) 1 .82• 1g op 728i9i Pk 1;0._. 4.. r0. rn :c w = N �dnco 1 2 1� : ' : 1 IAA Al 12831 1 ; N .Id)00 . / -1 . / W CA)CDCD�� CD CA) r� Knaus Rd Knaus Rd 3001 Cr CO 13041 a 13040 — N) rn w W N) co N N N N) co R-3 , 4 44. 13120 R-15 13050 / , / L id '(.-- II 151 Attachment A F lA�fom Tax Lot ID: 21 E04BB02300 Co, holor, ., City of Lake Oswego: PP' '--—j COMPREHENSIVE PLAN = R-3, Residential High Density „Av r# *$ '4 / ZONING = R-3, Residential High Density ___, L__.1 City Limits �i Property J 'c 1 0 80 160 240 320 1 - Feet • 1 9/10/2025 ATTACHMENT B Criteria, Findings,Conclusion,and Effective Date APPLICABLE CRITERIA: A. Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation; Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. 2. ORS 222.120(1, 3) Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing; Ordinance Subject to Referendum. 3. ORS 222.125 -Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. B. Metro Code. 1. 3.09.040(A)(1-4) Requirements for Petitions. 2. 3.09.045 (A-E) Expedited Decisions. C. Comprehensive Plan - Urbanization Chapter 1. Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services." 2. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." 3. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve the subject property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." 4. Policy D-3: "Enter into and maintain an Urban Growth Management Agreement with Clackamas County for lands within the Urban Services Boundary to ... (g) "Promote orderly annexation of territory." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) Policy B-1: "Provide and maintain zoning and development regulations that allow the opportunity to develop an adequate supply and variety of housing types, and that accommodate the needs of existing and future Lake Oswego residents." E. OAR 660-008-0010 Allocation of Buildable Land FINDINGS: A. Oregon Revised Statutes(ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation; Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. ORS 222.111(2) provides that a proposal for annexation of territory to a City may be initiated by the legislative body of the City, on its own motion, or by a petition to the legislative body of the City by owners of real property in the territory to be annexed.The property owners have petitioned the City for this annexation.The proposed annexation complies with this statute. 2. ORS 222.120 Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing;Ordinance Subject to Referendum. ORS 222.120 (1,3) states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation to the electors of the city for their approval or rejection if the legislative body provides for a duly noticed public hearing before the legislative body at which time the electors of the City may appear and be heard on the question of annexation. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 1 OF 10 The City has provided written notification of this annexation by publishing a notice once each week for two consecutive weeks prior to the day of the hearing in a newspaper of general circulation in the city and posted the notice of public hearing in four public places as required under ORS 222.120(3). The notice was published in the Lake Oswego Review and was posted at the City Hall, the Adult Community Center the City Library and the Operations Center.The notice contained information about the affected territory, time and place of the public hearing and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report. The annexation notification and review procedures comply with this statute. 3. ORS 222.125-Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. ORS 222.125 states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation within the area proposed to be annexed if all of the owners of land in the territory and not less than 50 percent of the electors, if any, residing in the territory consent in writing to the annexation.The property is occupied by a single-family dwelling with two electors. The property owners who are also electors residing on the property have consented to the annexation. The proposed annexation complies with this statute. B. Metro Code 1. 3.09.040- Requirements for Petitions. A. A petition for a boundary change must contain the following information: 1. The jurisdiction of the reviewing entity to act on the petition; 2. A map and a legal description of the affected territory in the form prescribed by the reviewing entity; 3. For minor boundary changes,the names and mailing addresses of all persons owning property and all electors within the affected territory as shown in the records of the tax assessor and county clerk; and, 4. For boundary changes under ORS 198.855 (3), 198.857, 222.125 or 222.170, statements of consent to the annexation signed by the requisite number of owners or electors. The above information was submitted as required by Metro Code. The property owners have signed the application and petition.A map and legal description in the form required by the City have been included in the application materials and are on file.The property owners have consented to the annexation on the annexation petition, meeting the consent requirements of ORS 222.125. The annexation petition complies with the Metro code requirements. 2. 3.09.045—Expedited Decisions A. The governing body of a city or Metro may use the process set forth in this section for minor boundary changes for which the petition is accompanied by the written consents of one hundred percent of property owners and at least fifty percent of the electors, if any,within the affected territory. No public hearing is required. B. The expedited process must provide for a minimum of 20 days' notice prior to the date set for decision to all necessary parties and other persons entitled to notice by the laws of the city or Metro.The notice shall state that the petition is subject to the expedited process unless a necessary party'gives written notice of its objection to the boundary change. C. At least seven days prior to the date of decision the city or Metro shall make available to the public a report that includes the following information: 1 "Necessary party" means "county; city; district whose jurisdictional boundary or adopted urban service area includes any part of the affected territory or who provides any urban service to any portion of the affected territory; Metro; or any other unit of local government." Metro Code 3.09.020(J). Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 2 OF 10 1. The extent to which urban services are available to serve the affected territory, including any extra-territorial extensions of service; 2. Whether the proposed boundary change will result in the withdrawal of the affected territory from the legal boundary of any necessary party; and 3. The proposed effective date of the boundary change. Metro Code 3.09.045(A) states that an expedited review of an annexation, where no public hearing is required, can be considered by a governing body within the area proposed to be annexed if one hundred percent of the property owners and not less than 50 percent of the electors, if any, residing in the territory consent in writing to the annexation.The property owners have signed the annexation application and petition. One hundred percent of the owners and electors have consented to this annexation. Metro Code 3.09.045(B) requires a minimum of 20 days' notice to all necessary parties prior to the decision date.The County, Metro, and local service districts are the necessary parties under the Metro Code 3.09.020(J) and all have been notified on September 17, 2025, 20 days before the scheduled decision date. Metro Code 3.09.045(C) requires that the report discussing availability of urban services, withdrawal of the affected territory, and the proposed effective date of the boundary change be made available at least seven days prior to the date of decision.The annexation report has been prepared and made available on September 17, 2025, no later than seven days prior to the public meeting. The proposed annexation complies with the Metro Code. D. To approve a boundary change through the expedited process the City shall: 1. Find that the change is consistent with expressly applicable provisions in: a. Any applicable urban service agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.065 The City has entered into ORS 195.065 agreements with: 1) Lake Oswego School District, and 2) Lake Grove Fire District. Lake Oswego Park District(Lake Oswego School District): The City and the Lake Oswego School District entered into an ORS 195.065 urban service agreement for park services in July, 2003.The School District operates the Lake Grove Swim Park located at 3800 Lakeview Boulevard.The agreement states that the annexation of property by the City within the Lake Grove Park District (which funds the swim park) shall not cause the withdrawal of this property from the District. Lake Grove Fire District#57:The City and District entered into an ORS 195.065 urban service agreement for fire protection in July, 2003.The agreement states that upon annexation of property within the district by the City,the annexed property shall be withdrawn from the District and the City shall provide fire protection services.This property is within the boundaries of the Lake Grove Fire District#57 and the annexation will withdraw this property from that District. The proposed annexation is consistent with these agreements. b. Any applicable annexation plan adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205. There are no applicable annexation plans adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205 relating to the affected territory. c. Any applicable cooperative planning agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.020(2) between the affected entity and a necessary party. There are no ORS 195.020(2) cooperative agreements (which relate to special districts) between the City and a necessary party. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 3 OF 10 d. Any applicable public facility plan adopted pursuant to a statewide planning goal on public facilities and services. Consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 11 (Public Facilities) and the Community Health and Public Safety Chapter of the Comprehensive Plan,the City maintains a Public Facilities Plan (PFP). The PFP consists of master plans for streets, sanitary sewer, water, and stormwater facilities, which provide the basis for long-range planning for both the incorporated and unincorporated lands within Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary(USB).The PFP is comprised of the Lake Oswego Transportation System Plan, Wastewater Master Plan, Water System Master Plan, and Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan, pursuant to Statewide Planning Goals 11 (Public Facilities) and 12 (Transportation). Wastewater Master Plan: Sanitary sewer service is available from an 8-inch sewer main located in Knaus Road along the site frontage.A minimum 4-inch lateral would be required within the right-of- way to connect to the mainline, and a two-way clean-out shall be positioned at the right-of-way line. A street opening permit will be required for the sewer tap and work within the public right-of-way and a plumbing permit will be required for on-site work.The on-site work will include decommissioning the existing septic tank(removal, or filling with sand or gravel). All work would be done by private contractors. Note:The Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards that would apply for the sewer connection. Water System Master Plan: Water is available from a 6-inch City water main located in Knaus Road along the site frontage that can provide water service for future development.The nearest existing fire hydrant is located at the north side of Knaus Road near the eastern property line. Individual private water services would be required at the time of future development, unless exempt.A new connection will be charged the applicable System Development Charge (SDC)when the individual service is made for a new home at the time of building permit issuance. Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan: After annexation, on-site surface water management will fall under various provisions of the Lake Oswego Code and the Clean Streams plan. However, stormwater runoff from new and/or replaced impervious surface areas shall be managed in accordance with the City's Stormwater Management Code (LOC 38.25). The Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan does not identify any future projects for this section of Knaus Road. Transportation (Statewide Planning Goal 12):The City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Knaus Road is identified in the City's Transportation System Plan as a Neighborhood Collector and is under the jurisdiction and permitting authority of Lake Oswego.The nearest mass transit service is Tri-Met bus line 78,which operates between downtown Lake Oswego and the Tigard and Beaverton Transit Centers. Service can be accessed at the intersection of Boones Ferry and Country Club Roads. The City's Transportation System Plan implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. e. Any applicable comprehensive plan policies Comprehensive Plan Map:This property is currently designated R-20 Low Density Residential on Clackamas County's Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Maps. It is designated High Density Residential, R-3 on the City's Comprehensive Plan Map.As required under LOC 50.01.005.5, upon annexation, a City zoning designation of R-3 will be automatically applied to this property. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 4 OF 10 The City and County have coordinated their comprehensive plans within the Dual Interest Area outlined in the City-County Urban Growth Management Agreement(UGMA) (dated February 4, 1992 and updated November 18, 1997), hence the City/County designations have been determined to be compatible.The proposed zoning designation of R-3 is consistent with the UGMA between the County and the City. Comprehensive Plan Policies:The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan contains the following relevant language in the Urbanization chapter: Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services."The property to be annexed is within the City's Urban Services Boundary.Therefore, the proposed annexation and the withdrawal of this property from the identified districts is consistent with this policy. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." The approval of this annexation will result in the addition of 0.31 acres to be served by the City.As stated in Section 2(b)(1), the addition of this territory will not detract from the City's ability to provide police and fire protection to existing City residents. As outlined elsewhere in these findings and the incorporated materials, annexation of this property will not affect the City's ability to provide parks and recreation services, sewer or water services. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve the subject property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." Availability of urban services serving this property is discussed below: Water: Water is available to serve the subject property as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Sewer: Sanitary sewer service is available to serve the subject areas as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Stormwater: As detailed in subsection D.1.d,future development will be required to comply with the City standards for stormwater management. Fire Protection: Lake Grove Fire District#57 provides fire protection services to this property by agreement with the City of Lake Oswego.The District has no bonded debt. Upon annexation,the property will be withdrawn from this fire district per a July, 2003 urban service agreement and will be served directly by the City.The Main Fire station on 300 B Avenue, located southeast of the site, would be able to respond to emergencies under the eight-minute goal established in the Comprehensive Plan. Police: Upon annexation,this property will be withdrawn from the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District and served by the City of Lake Oswego.The Sheriff's District has no bonded debt.The Lake Oswego Police Department reviewed the proposal and indicated that it does not have any concerns with serving this property upon annexation. Parks and Open Space:The City has 629 acres of park and open space lands, or 14.6 acres per 1,000 population.The parks nearest to this property are Tryon Creek State Natural Park, Woodmont Park, Springbrook Park and Iron Mountain Park.The City's park system will not be overburdened by any additional population annexed to the City with this application. Lake Grove Park District:The Lake Grove Swim Park, managed by the Lake Oswego School District, and funded by the Lake Grove Park District, is located at 3800 Lakeview Boulevard.The swim park is approximately 1.3 acres in size with restroom, play and swim facilities. Per the 2003 Urban Service Agreement,this property will remain within the Lake Grove Park District following annexation. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 5 OF 10 Library District of Clackamas County:The Library District was formed to act as the fiscal agent for the distribution of property tax revenues raised by the District permanent rate to participating local governments who operate public libraries within Clackamas County.This property will remain within the Library District of Clackamas County following annexation. Transportation -Streets and Mass Transit:Transportation infrastructure and transit service is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d, above. Other Urban Services: LOC 50.06.008.3 requires that all development be provided with the following utility services: sanitary sewer, water, sidewalks, pedestrian and bicycle paths,traffic control signs and devices, street lights, streets, and TV cable.These utilities are now in place or can be put in place to serve this property. In the event that future development occurs, an applicant for development is obligated to construct all necessary public facilities to serve their development. Urban Growth Management Agreement The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Urbanization Chapter, Policy D-3, calls for the City to enter into and maintain an UGMA with Clackamas County for lands within the USB. Similarly, General Urbanization Policy 4.A.4 of the Clackamas County Comprehensive Plan calls for the establishment of Urban Growth Management Areas and UGMAs to clarify planning responsibilities between the County and cities for areas of mutual interest. Policy 4.A.5 directs the County to establish agreements with cities and service districts to clarify service and infrastructure responsibilities for areas of mutual interest. In furtherance of these policies,the City and County have entered into an UGMA that stipulates a mutual interest in coordinated land use planning, compatible comprehensive plans and provision of urban services and facilities. This agreement ensures coordination and consistency between the City and County comprehensive plans and outlines responsibilities in providing services and managing growth within the Dual Interest Area. Subsections 6 and 7, provided below, are applicable to annexations. "6C. City and County Notice and Coordination: The City shall provide notification to the County, and an opportunity to participate, review and comment, at least 35 days prior to the first public hearing on all proposed public facilities plans, legislative changes to the City Comprehensive Plan, or quasi-judicial land use actions adjacent to, or in close proximity to unincorporated areas. The City shall provide notice to the County of private or City initiated annexation requests within five days of the filing of an application with the Portland Metropolitan Boundary Commission." The City-County UGMA specifies that the City notify the County of an annexation request within five days of when it is submitted to the Boundary Commission.There is no longer a Boundary Commission for the Portland Metropolitan area. Staff relies on the notice requirements of Metro Code 3.09.045(B), which requires mailing notice to all necessary parties, 20 days prior to the annexation decision for all necessary parties (other governmental entities).The notice shall state that the petition is subject to the expedited process unless a "necessary party" gives written notice of its objection to the boundary change.The County is a necessary party under the Metro Code definition and has been notified. "7. City Annexations A. The City may undertake annexations in the manner provided for by law within the Dual Interest Area. The City annexation proposals shall include adjacent road right- of-way to property proposed for annexation. The County shall not oppose such annexations. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 6 OF 10 B. Upon annexation, the City shall assume jurisdiction of the County roads and local access roads pursuant to a separate road transfer agreement between the City and county." The City is undertaking this annexation in the manner provided for in the applicable ORS and Metro Code for the territories that lie within the Dual Interest Area.This annexation is consistent with the City and County comprehensive plans which have been coordinated in the Dual Interest Area within the regional Urban Growth Boundary(UGB). The right-of-way adjacent to this property is within the City Boundary and is under the maintenance jurisdiction of the City of Lake Oswego. Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter The Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter of the City's Comprehensive Plan implements Statewide Housing Goal 10 and the Portland Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0000 et seq.), which requires that the City plan for a supply of residentially zoned land with an average allowed density of 10 dwelling units per net acre, and the opportunity to develop a mix of housing types consisting of not less than 50%attached and multifamily dwellings. Compliance with the State rules ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units and the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries,while promoting certainty in the development process to help reduce housing costs. The following Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) provides standards for compliance with Goal 10 "Housing" pursuant to ORS 197.296 (Buildable Lands) and ORS 197.303 through 197.307 (Needed Housing): OAR 660-008-0010 Allocation of Buildable Land The mix and density of needed housing is determined in the housing needs projection. Sufficient buildable land shall be designated on the comprehensive plan map to satisfy housing needs by type and density range as determined in the housing needs projection. The local buildable lands inventory must document the amount of buildable land in each residential plan designation. The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter, adopted pursuant to Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule, is designed to meet Lake Oswego's housing needs for not less than a twenty-year planning period.The Comprehensive Plan Map designates residential land use designations within the City limits and within Lake Oswego's USB through the year 2035.The Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations are consistent with the City's Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) 20 Year Housing Need Forecast 2023-2043 (9/21/23), also incorporated herein by reference, and the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA, which specifies future zoning of lands with the USB upon annexation to Lake Oswego.These designations match the corresponding Zoning Map designations such that there is only one zone for each Plan designation, and therefore only one zone that is applied to each lot upon annexation, consistent with the UGMA and in compliance with Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule. In the case of the subject application,the applicable Plan Map designation and corresponding Zone Map designation is R-3. The HNA is based on the Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations. Figure 6.3 of the HNA, excerpted below,forecasts a citywide deficit of 642 units (86 acres), including a deficit of 201 units (17 acres) of high-density residential land,to meet the city's housing needs by 2043. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 7 OF 10 FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate(0.05%) Zone&Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached&plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home;2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics The proposed annexation would add 0.31 acres of high-density residential land to the City's Buildable Lands inventory(BLI), which would correspondingly reduce the deficit of high-density residential land needed to meet the city's housing needs by 2043 by 0.31 acres.The proposed annexation and designation of City zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the HNA;therefore,the annexation and zone change comply with Goal 10 and its implementing administrative rules. In this case,the zoning district would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA. The City uses the following approach for findings supporting two types of annexation zone changes: • Option 1 is for annexation-related non-discretionary Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map amendments. • Option 2 is for annexation-related discretionary Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map amendments. "Non-discretionary" amendments are Zoning Map amendments applied to an annexed property(or properties) where the applicable zoning designation is prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and a zoning conversion table in the City-County UGMA. "Discretionary" amendments are where more than one zoning designation is applicable, as prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and the City-County UGMA, and the City Council has discretion in applying zoning. The proposed rezoning in AN 25-0005 is non-discretionary because the zoning is prescribed by the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and the zoning conversion table in the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA. The City's R-3 zone is proposed to be applied consistent with (matching)the R-3 land use designation in the City's Goal 10/Metro Housing Rule-compliant Comprehensive Plan. The Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0035(3)) states that Lake Oswego must provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre.The City's R-3 zone allows for the development of multi-family or townhouse developments on properties meeting the minimum lot size of 1500 sq.ft., corresponding to a density of more than 29 dwelling units per acre.The City's R-3 zone also allows for the development of duplexes containing 2 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 25 units per acre. Further, the City's R-3 zone also allows for the development of single-family residences containing 1 dwelling unit on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 12 units Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 8 OF 10 per acre.Therefore, the City's R-3 zone meets the requirement to provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. The City Council does not have discretion to apply a different zone to the subject property unless it is amending the Comprehensive Plan to change the land use designation; therefore,the City does not evaluate proposed zones against its HNA.The City simply applies the zoning that is prescribed by the Comprehensive Plan, consistent with the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Goal 10) chapter of the Plan. In doing so,the City relies on LOC 50.01.004.5.a,which states that the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map provides for the future City zoning of all property within the City's USB. In cases where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific zoning map designation,this designation is automatically imposed on territory when the property is annexed to the City. In conclusion,the proposed R-3 zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and City-County UGMA for the subject property, and the City Council does not have other zoning options from which to choose in approving AN 25-0005. f. Any applicable concept plan There are no applicable concept plans in this area. 2. Consider whether the boundary change would a. Promote the timely orderly and economic provision of public facilities and services b. Affect the quality and quantity of urban services c. Eliminate or avoid unnecessary duplication of facilities or services The proximity of this property to existing City services will allow this annexation to promote the timely, orderly, and economical extension of public facilities and services. It can readily be served with urban services and facilities. If and when additional development occurs in the area, provision of public facilities and services will occur consistent with the City's adopted public facility master plans, ensuring that it does not adversely affect the quality or quantity of urban services and avoiding unnecessary duplication of facilities or services.Therefore,this boundary change is consistent with criteria 2.a through 2.c. E. A city may not annex territory that lies outside the UGB except it may annex a lot or parcel that lies partially within and partially outside the UGB. The property to be annexed is located entirely within the City's UGB. C. Comprehensive Plan- Urbanization Chapter See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies—Urbanization." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Statewide Goal 10)." E. OAR 660-008-0010-Allocation of Buildable Land See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10)." CONCLUSION: Based on the criteria and findings set forth above,the City Council concludes that AN 25-0005 complies with all applicable criteria and the annexation should be approved. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 9 OF 10 EFFECTIVE DATE: A. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C.,the ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. B. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177,this annexation shall be effective upon the later of: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State; provided however that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any City, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Ordinance 2968 (AN 25-0005) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 10 OF 10 ATTACHMENT 2 (ORDINANCE 2934) LU 23-0023 tt 1 11'11Lrl1___1 a mod. .:.�N i: GS I � '"'�"� k0 l ... °"'".� r,.* - a l 1, ilea I I 4-? aisix 'II 'I Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 September 21, 2023 ;;� JOHNSON ECONOMICS AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Lake Oswego Housing Task Force Kasey Adler,Transportation Advisory Board Yoko Kinoshita, Resident Kyrsten Baumgart, Housing producer Rebecca Lane, Resident Phil Bertrand, Housing producer Rosalie Nowalk, Resident Joseph M. Buck, City Council Liaison John E. Pauley, Resident Thea Croman, DLCD Bruce Poinsette, Development Review Commission Kelly Reid, DLCD Phillip Stewart, Planning Commission Liaison Douglas Corder, 50+Advisory Board David Tangvald, Housing producer Pat Ginn, Resident Kimvi To, D.E.I. Advisory Board Diana Howell, Resident John Turchi, Resident Cara Kao-Young, Resident Sarah Walker, Housing producer Betty Jung, Resident Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Andrew Parish, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS 8 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY 10 I. INCOME TRENDS 11 J. POVERTY STATISTICS 12 K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 12 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 14 A. HOUSING TENURE 14 B. HOUSING STOCK 14 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 14 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 15 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 16 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 17 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 18 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 20 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 26 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED(2043)&LAND SUPPLY 32 APPENDIX A: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY 35 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043,consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: ■ Portland State University Population Research Center ■ Metro ■ U.S.Census ■ Cla ritas2 ■ Oregon Employment Department ■ City of Lake Oswego ■ Clackamas County ■ Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey(ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego,as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin,and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population' 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);51901;519301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of 2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS 5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-yearACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000,while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households. This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period.The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons;69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census. Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2: NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more ° Renter 6-person 1�° Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in 2 4-person 11% v 18% = 3-person 11% 19% 2-person 35% 38% 1-person ° 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census, the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8% of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households.In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits:An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000,with 24%being multi-family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi-Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 100I ' 50 ' — I ' 0 OO O'L OR Oro Orb 0 yL 0� yco 4' ti0 ,ti'L ,y0 ,LO ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 2.4:AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) ti o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% v ,,go' N. o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti co 0 15% -1 m ti m v N o , , c-I o N o * o c-I c-I e , 0 o —, 0 , 1-1 O c , 10% '" O1 o 0 o Un Un 5% a mi N N c 0% ■ a co A Lb J aec �o ,co �o �o �o ,,o ,co Lb J� 4, 4, 0, t< 5' 4h 4, SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5:SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 10% 10% II 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B11005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS The following figure presents the distribution of Lake Oswego's population by race and Hispanic ethnicity. The community grew more diverse between the 2010 and 2020 Census, with the population's white (non-Hispanic) share falling from 90%to 80%. The Asian population makes up 8% of the population, and the Hispanic or Latino population makes up 5%of residents.9%of residents identify as two or more races. FIGURE 2.6: RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY,2010—2020(LAKE OSWEGO) 100% Share of Population by Race o Lake Oswego(2010) oo 80% •Lake Oswego(2020) 60% •Clackamas Co. 40% Oregon 20% o o 00 e o o. o u, o o M _. °) C -O N C Cl) Cl) 0 co C > co -O ro 0 c LE L., 17, w (0 C Q CO 0 C f0 N J N c) COZ Q ro a) O I° O 0 p Y COYv a E a_' CO o_ N Lc) ± SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P1,P2(2010,2020) In comparison,the share of the population identifying as white is also 80%in Clackamas County,and 75%statewide. The share of Lake Oswego's population identifying as Hispanic or Latino is 5% of the population, indicating over 2,100 people as of the 2020 Census.This is lower than the 14%share statewide. FIGURE 2.7:AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Average Household Size by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 2.5 White alone 2.4 Black or African American alone 2.5 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 2.8 Asian alone 2.8 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 3.5 Hispanic or Latino 3.7 Some Other Race alone 4.0 Two or more races: 2.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Avg.Number of Persons per Household SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P17A-H,(State of Oregon,2020) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2010).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature unusually large margins of error due to the small sample size. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Minority households tend to have a larger average household size than the average of all households (Figure 2.7). (This figure presents statewide data due to the high margin of error for local data in this data set.) Households identifying as"white alone" have the lowest average household size(2.4 persons),while all other racial and ethnic categories have a larger estimated average household size. Some of the non-white categories, such as black households and those of two or more races,are still similar in average size(2.5 and 2.7 persons,respectively).Those with the largest estimated households are Latinos, Pacific Islanders,and those identifying as"some other race." Larger average household size indicates a need for units with more bedrooms on average among many minority households. Each household has its own housing needs in terms of the number of bedrooms and other factors, based on the specific makeup of each family. Based on voluntary guidelines provided by HUD for public housing programs, households of between 2 persons generally need a one-bedroom unit, households with 3 persons might need two bedrooms, and those with 4 persons might need three bedrooms. Larger households may need four or more bedrooms,which are typically found in single detached homes. Based on statewide data, many racial and ethnic minorities are currently less likely to own the homes they occupy (Figure 2.8)—meaning that they tend to occupy rental units.These communities face systemic obstacles to home ownership,including lower generational wealth, less access to capital and financing,and a history of discrimination in lending and geography(e.g.,redlining).While the country and state try to address explicit discrimination through the law, the legacy of these barriers continues to hamper home ownership for many minority households. Going forward, many communities would benefit from more entry-level homebuying opportunities for these households, as well as additional rental housing for those who are still unready or unable to buy a home. FIGURE 2.8: HOME OWNERSHIP RATE BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Owner-Occupied Households by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 63% White alone 65% Black or African American alone 36% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 48% Asian alone 63% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 32% Hispanic or Latino 45% Some Other Race alone 43% Two or more races: 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ownership Rate SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25003A-H,(State of Oregon,2021 ACS 5-year) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2020).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature larger margins of error due to small sample size in some of the racial categories. Populations from some racial and ethnic minority groups also have lower average incomes and are more likely to have income below the official poverty level when compared to the total population. Such income levels are correlated with a greater share of renter households and impact the types of housing these populations consume, as discussed in further detail below. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY An estimated 8%of the population of Lake Oswego, or 3,140 people, report having some form of disability.This is lower than the statewide rate of 14%and the Clackamas County rate of 12%of people with a disability.(The Census reports these statistics for the"non-institutionalized population.") The following figure presents Census estimates of the types of disability reported among Lake Oswego residents. Any type of disability impacts the type of housing that may be appropriate for a resident,but those with the greatest impact on needed unit type are generally an ambulatory,self-care, or independent living disability.Those with an ambulatory disability often need units with expanded access for a wheelchair,walker, or scooter.Those with self- care or independent living disabilities may require additional safety precautions around the home to protect a resident who cannot always be directly monitored. FIGURE 2.9: LAKE OSWEGO SHARE OF THE POPULATION WITH DISABILITY,BY TYPE Share of Population Population with a disability 7.8% Hearing difficulty 2.4% Vision difficulty 1.7% Cognitive difficulty 2.7% Ambulatory difficulty 2.9% Self-care difficulty 1.1% Independent living difficulty 2.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) FIGURE 2.10:LAKE OSWEGO POPULATION WITH A DISABILITY,BY AGE Share of Population with Disability by Age Total population ■ 7.8% Under 18 years . 2.0% 18 to 64 years 5.8% 65 years and over 19.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Older residents are more likely to report a disability, including nearly 20%of those over 65 years. Of those aged 18 to 64 years, 6% of the local population reports a disability, and 2% of children. Because Census data tends to undercount the homeless and other vulnerable populations, there are likely more disabled residents in Lake Oswego than reflected in these data. I. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.11: INCOME TRENDS,2000-2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 • Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500,and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. • Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. • Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. FIGURE 2.12: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to$99,999 11% $50,000 to$74,999 11% $35,000 to$49,999 6% $25,000 to$34,999 4% $15,000 to$24,999 4% $10,000 to$14,999 2% Less than$10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables:S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) Figure 2.12 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k(27%). • 41%of households earn less than $100,000. • Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 J. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%, and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: ■ The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups,but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. ■ For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. ■ Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.13:POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college, associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database. These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these,an estimated 2,250 or 10%,are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities ▪Census Tables:S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates);Methodology The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now, a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.14: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Met:rger f Milwaukie Hosp' n,u Creek State `43 Milwaukie �, Natural AreaO M TDunthorpe 4r�i t 49E) lard Oswego 20,900 2,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere in Lake Oswego ` work elsewhere ! I ryant •riding ij Durham .1�� ritage Centeridi 90% / 10% 12% / 88% Jennie ■ MAKYLHL'i- i n ` River Grove .ualatin © Stafford Legacy Meridian Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide(63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census.Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16%of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom 27% 2°% Studio 6% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes,which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% •Owner 80% Rental 59% E 60% 0 E' 40% 20% 18% 0 13% 0 1� 6% 0% 5/0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0/ Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% 23% 23% Renter 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% o 7% 7/0 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% o5 �0005 y�0) �y���5 ��5 y�o5 o5 o5 of 3c) Year Housing Unit Built ti SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units,older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others,and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30%of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households O 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% 60% 51% U, von 40% =• 20% 12% 16% 2• 0% .2 Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs, including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent' for local renter households only. This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. °The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)."Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% 25% 22% 0 ✓ 20% • 15% 14% • 10% 7% co 5/ � ■ 0% ,O ,Co ,co ,co otcc' 0 y O °A0 of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents.The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families. Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds, as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18),and 26 youth (aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender, 60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities, including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. 6 HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act, who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources:Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%. This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home(tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2: ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007,B25106, B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be$400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate, but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term.The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference,or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% 59% Rental E 60% 0 v cp 40% 18% 20% 10% 0 13% - 6/ 0% 5% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032, B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY,ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032, B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 6,000 •Est.Owner Households E 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level - 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 2,000 1,000 , xt 0 M •■ . •. ■ c� to p O, 0 0. O C At' tc) '1, C 0 0tzy LS tz zz z ry t?' t?' O U 0 ' L a 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0r O O O O �0 O O OO O O55 h � c3, 1 0 O'1ti q 'z'' 4t 0 1, � 'ti t t Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 •Est.Renter Households v, Y E1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level N 1,000 v UI 7 "5 500 I 0 5ra 000 O00 O00 O00 O00 000 000 000 ti ti ti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The home value and rent segments which show a "surplus"in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around those levels.These levels will be too costly for some(i.e.require more than 30%in gross income)or"too affordable" for others(i.e.they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose). In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing.There is a need for more rental units at lower rent levels(<$900/mo.). HOME SALE PRICES It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively low housing costs.This indicates that one owner household is living in a"lower value"unit. It does not indicate that units at this price point are available on the current market. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current achievable market prices. For this reason,many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant. For reference,this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the market(Figure 4.7). • The median sale price was$860,000. • The average (mean)sale price was$1,075,000. • The average price per square foot was$430/s.f. • The median square footage was 2,300 s.f. FIGURE 4.7: LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES(12 MONTHS) Home Sales by Unit Type Home Sales by Price Level $900,000+ 319 $800,000-$899,000 66 20% $700,000-$799,000 67 $600,000-$699,000 56 8% $500,000-$599,000 ■ 39 0%0 72% $400,000-$499,000 . 31 $300,000-$399,000 . 47 $200,000-$299,000 ■ 43 $100,000-$199,000 3 Detached Home Manuf. Home <$100,000 0 Attached Home Condo 0 100 200 300 400 Sources: RMLS,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • 48%of sales were priced above$900,000. • 34%of sales were priced between$500,000 and $899,000. • Only 18%of sales were priced at less than$500,000. • Only 7%of sales were priced below$300,000. Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75%of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least$600,000. Homes in this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the median household income of$123,000. Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the current for-sale market(75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households. The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following section. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS- 2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The projected future(20-year) housing profile(Figure 5.1)in the study area is based on the current housing profile (2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate. The projected future growth is the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region. This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1%per year.' FIGURE 5.1: FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE(2043),LAKE OSWEGO PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023-2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1.7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied Units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0% Stabilized vacancy assumption Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Metro,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC *Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population,household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1 The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons,meaning more smaller households to house the same population. (The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.) 7 The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis. To comply with state rules,the analysis relies on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC)and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast.The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state. The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1%between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05%per year.Many community members in Lake Oswego,including members of the project Task Force,as well as members of the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected growth rates,but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict,the deficit of land available to accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume remaining buildable land more quickly,potentially running out of buildable land within several years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six years;thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population forecast,if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends.It will be important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to continue to monitor actual growth patterns,as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected,the City will need to identify and implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near term. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND(2043) The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step. Therefore,the need identified below is the total need for actual households in occupied units(19,298). The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of each.The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households. The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing costs,from 30%for low income households down to 20%for the highest income households. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%,with 10% down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the future, these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand. Income levels and price levels are presented in 2023 dollars. Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand(current and new households,without vacancy) in 2043. FIGURE 5.2: PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND(2043),LAKE OSWEGO Ownership #of Price Range Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $ok-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% Extremely <30%MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low <50%MFI $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% Income $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80%MEI $350k-$440k 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental #of Rent Level Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $0-$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% Extremely <30%MFI $400-$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% Low Income $700-$900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50%MEI $900-$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% Income $1300-$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80%MEI $1800-$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 %of All: 30.3% 19,298 Sources: Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next 20 years to under 70%from 71%. COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above(Figure 5.2)was compared to the current housing inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and price range(Figure 5.3). This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units. An average vacancy rate of 5%is assumed for the purpose of this analysis. FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS(2043),LAKE OSWEGO OWNERSHIP HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: 2-unit Detached Attached plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0% Percentage: 69.2% 12.9% 3.1% 5.6% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0% Percentage: 5.5% 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: 2-unit Detached Attached plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% Sources: PSU,City of Lake Oswego,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043. • Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be rental units.This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than ownership units. • There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges($300k to$600k). • The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points. Market rents are currently clustered in the $1,300 to$2,200 range in current dollars. Therefore, most units are to be found in this range. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 ■ There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to maintain housing costs that are affordable(see more detail below). Needed Unit Types The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership households over the next 20 years. However,an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers. ■ 39% of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is projected to be some form of attached housing. ■ Single attached units(townhomes on individual lots)are projected to meet roughly 11%of future need. These are defined as units on separate tax lots,attached by a wall but separately metered,the most common example being townhome units. ■ Duplex,triplex,and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16%of the total need, reflecting new state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement unit.) ■ 34%of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+attached units. ■ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of some low-income households for both ownership and rental. ■ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are projected to be attached forms. ■ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings, with 62% projected in rental properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes. Group Housing Needs:There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population growth is modest. In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego's group housing population lives in nursing facilities. NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment,based on the projected demographics of new households to the market area.The needed affordability levels presented here are based on current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels. Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of "low income" used to set rent and income limits for various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income in Clackamas County of$106k in 2022, based on a family of four,while the median income in Lake Oswego was a higher$123k. For this analysis,the estimated Median Family Income(MFI)for a family of four($106k)was adjusted to match the average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the city average. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 29 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable unit or voucher to find housing affordability.Those at 60%to 100%MFI may find housing in older and substandard market rate rentals, manufactured homes,and middle housing types. FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Household Income Segment Income Level Owner Renter Total Share Common Housing Product (Rounded) Units Units Government-subsidized;Voucher; Extremely Low Inc. <30%MR <$27,500 56 149 205 10% Shelter;Transitional Aging/substandard rentals; Very Low Income 30%-60%MFI $27.5k-$55k 95 221 317 16% Government-subsidized;Voucher; Manufactured homes Aging apartments;Government- Low Income 60%-80%MFI $55k-$73k 71 120 190 10% subsidized; Plexes;Aging single- detached;Small homes Single-detached homes; Middle Income 80%-120%MFI $73k-$110k 134 172 306 16% Townhomes; Condominiums; Newer apartments Single-detached homes; Upper Income >120%MFI >$110,000 669 282 951 48% Townhomes; Condominiums; New apartments TOTAL: 1,024 944 1,968 100% Sources: HUD,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current need for more affordable units. For all households,current and new,to pay 30%or less of their income towards housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to become less expensive to meet the needs of current households. • There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum ($900 and less). • The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes, condos, and small detached homes,often on smaller lots. Subsidized Affordability Housing Need As alluded to in Figure 5.4,some low-income households,and particularly the lowest income households,typically need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and other household spending needs. Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043.The table uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common affordability level for tax credit properties. • There is an existing and on-going need at these levels, based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas County. An estimated 12%of households qualify as at least"low income"or lower on the income scale,while CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 30 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 9% of households qualify as "extremely low income". (Again, this is based on the official state measure of Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs, which is relatively high.) FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT Low INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Current Need(2022) Future Need(2043) NEW Need(20-Year) Affordablilty Level Income Level* #of Units %of All #of Units %of All #of Units %of All Extremely Low Inc. <_30%MFI <_ $26,800 1,492 9% 1,697 9% 205 10% Very Low Income 30%-50%MFI <_ $44,700 1,560 9% 1,771 9% 212 11% Low Income 50%-80%MEI < $71,600 2,075 12% 2,370 12% 295 15% TOTAL: s 80%MFI s $71,600 5,127 29% 5,839 30% 712 36% Tax Credit <60%MEI < $53,700 3,962 23% 4,483 23% 521 26% Sources: OHCS,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,HUD *Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg.Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons. ■ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income households and many other low-income households at "affordable" housing cost levels. Often the lowest income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are more likely to serve those earning 50%to 60%of MFI. Housing Need for People Experiencing Homelessness:Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to maintain a fairly stable number of unhoused individuals and households over this period. Unhoused individuals and families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances,ranging from emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-income population shown in prior figures. Agricultural Worker Housing:There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the planning period. However,this population may also be served by other available affordable units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 31 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED (2043) & LAND SUPPLY This section summarizes the results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). The BLI is presented in detail in an accompanying memo to this report. The BLI was conducted for land within the city limits, assessing vacant and partially vacant lands based on residential zoning, and environmental and other constraints that may impact development. The following table (Figure 6.1) presents the estimated new unit capacity of the buildable lands identified in the City of Lake Oswego and within the UGB. Residential zones, as well as mixed-use zones that can accommodate some residential uses, were included in the inventory, and are broken into broad categories based on housing density. FIGURE 6.1: ESTIMATED BUILDABLE LANDS CAPACITY BY ACREAGE AND NO.OF UNITS(2023) ACRES ACREAGE Land Type Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Acres Area(Acres) Area(Acres) Acres Capacity Residential 3,530 802 2,784 174 705 Mixed Use 490 96 397 10 146 Non-Residential 172 21 150 - - Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - - Acres Total: 7,339 2,193 5,230 185 851 UNITS UNIT TYPE Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Unit Housing Type Units Units Units Capacity Residential 648 39 17 705 Mixed Use 5 23 118 146 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Vacant and Partially Vacant Total: 653 62 135 851 Additional Capacity Approved Developments 2 23 341 366 Additional Middle Housing Infill - 110 - 110 TOTAL HOUSING UNIT CAPACITY: 655 195 476 1,327 Source: MIG • There is a total estimated remaining capacity of 1,327 units of different types within the study area. • The estimated remaining capacity for low density housing units remains the greatest share at capacity for 655 units,or 49%of the total. • There is a total estimated capacity for 195 middle housing units, including future infill in low density zones. This is roughly 15%of the total unit capacity. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 32 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • There is a total estimated capacity for 476 housing units in higher density multi-dwelling properties. This is roughly 36%of the total unit capacity. • 28%of the total capacity(366 units) is found in units already approved for development as of the time of this analysis.Additional infill opportunities identified on large-lot residential and some commercial lands account for an estimated 8%of capacity. See the attached Appendix for full Buildable Land Inventory details and methodology. The following table summarizes the forecasted future unit need for Lake Oswego. These are the summarized results from Section V of this report, presented here for reference. FIGURE 6.2: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED FUTURE UNIT NEED(2043) TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% New Units Needed Single Detached Homes 760 ar Townhomes 220 2 -4 Plex Units 309 to 5 or More Units 677 Manufactured Homes 3 O O O O O O 00 cb 00 Housing Units Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Census,Johnson Economics Comparison of Housing Need and Capacity There is a total forecasted need for nearly 2,000 units over the next 20 years based on the forecasted growth rate. This is greater than the estimated total capacity of 1,327 units. Figure 6.3 below presents a comparison of the BLI capacity for new housing units, compared to the estimate for new unit need by 2043. It breaks down need by general zoning category(LDR, MDR, HDR). • The projected demand for low-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 192 units,or the equivalent of 38 acres of low density residential land. • The results find a deficit for medium-density housing of 249 units,or 31 acres. • The projected demand for high-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 201 units,or the equivalent of 17 acres of high density residential land. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 33 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • These findings assume that under newly adopted state rules,3%of available buildable parcels in the LDR zone will be used for the various types of attached units(single-family attached townhomes, duplex—fourplex). FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate (0.05%) Zone& Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached & plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics • These findings point to a need for additional residential land in a range of zones over the 20-year planning period. Available inventory may meet an estimated 67% of total housing needs over the first half of the planning period, but a deficit is projected in the long run. • A range of potential housing policies and strategies will be considered in future development of a Housing Production Strategy by the City, including the ability of future plan areas to meet the need for different types of housing during the 20-year planning period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 34 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 APPENDIX A: LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY Methodology and Results I July 18, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA)for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification.This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development. This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation, then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits.' 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGR Appendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf 2 A prior version of this Buildable Lands Inventory included unannexed land outside of the Lake Oswego City Limits which has a City Comprehensive Plan designation.This land has been removed from the study area following APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 35 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 1.Study Area Map s SW STEPHENSON ST TF9� y `/// lif F,9 c.cR5' <FSS / R PKwY NHS �-�, �` ._ FAO J'- - .-4.-1p00 S� • ,, 3 � V � ,._f „k7:4, e \o k MELROSE ST �. , '5- I CO UNTRy C(UB RD R �� / 21L J D KRUSE WAY 0Q 40 A 4VE "' 3I MEADOWS RD , Q, l z oN, 'SW BONR/ p ,�EA Q- 4G .' t� 8 2 ZEI s l�0 0 a o s d 0 . - .,.,.,/,' . ‘ > j O� �EV.I gVV D. % PJ ' ' in '111VpPE��p�EJ c,NOREg(VD �cEV �•� �)155C4:1, ' �i SO�d` cc 0 OHO R/G GREENTREEP � p� FRi/I s_j OJT,OOK09 S- BERGIS,RD �, �$3 JC'E WAY , y-</ <,0 0 O 0 cc ,r z o O �! S'P ae =' m \\,OS PD�S OSF O�VA E Or�z CHILDS RD �� MON/. F n 90 (U �� of % Mlles-�- �, `PREGOt/ 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Study Area !r`: Study Area Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other. Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning discussion with the City's Housing Production Strategy Task Force and Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)staff. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 36 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations R-15 To provide lands for single-family residential development with Residential Low R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential R 5 development with densities ranging from seven to eight dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities R-DD Zone and supports the economic feasibility of new construction and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved Residential and integrated with new development. Medium Density The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, R-6 and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 37 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Residential High R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per Density R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Highway retail uses which require access to a market area larger than Commercial(HC) the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity.Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that Mixed Use (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 38 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area.Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 39 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations Portlan-, _..a 5 College-5y. Tryon Creek I State Natural t Lt41 I Alt - Ci r.�' --' __ - _ Milwaukle a ', �t" 4, Heights Tigard pp '� , u + R-io-ri ! .,,,, , , ...:, HC R-5 ill III FII ,• R-6 Oak Grove [•I+ v R-ro R � 1 - �-1:11�a DEC 1 _ �RF.D -- F lip Bonita E SNt Ha i la RO _ i 1 , ,,PNA i ., •e eqo Durham Ig. • .0446 1 • ��. Rio .�R 7 5 �J �/ '- I4-iff, Concord R/.c / -r PF D •/ _-1 R.7.5 R-�5 "-Jk Park PNA Durham o r! R,no _'[• 'c tr, III ..y Club FOP R"i5 Jer 1. I R"'S Err,,NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Ern,HERE, Tualatin Rivergrove PNA- Gamin,SafeGraph,GgoTechnologies.Inc.METUNASA USGS.Bureau of land Management.EPA,MPS, USDA Mary S.You no Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts Legend Q l are Oswego O HC -PF O R-6 LAYER FT I T PNA =R•7.5 O CI =IP _7 R-0 0 ROD O Cl/OC C-7 MC -R-10 ®R'W O CR&D U NC LJ R-15 O WLG OC O EC =NC/R-0 O R-2 O WIG R-2.5 O EC/R-0 O OC O R-3 10 WLG RMU 0 0.25 0.5 1 EL GC O OC/R-3 EL R-5 1 = 1 Mlles APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 40 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations 1 PortianU ��" 1 Community G.I 0 224] v College-Sylva Ry-5 - °i MI SF. s n 1 ' --- R-3' - _ •fl tr —Ar S I — — ED R7.5 /J u }� ily d t .- e��1 PNA Milwaukfe ner'PF � � •R.5 ei Heights Tigard r_'!r /y aJ� pi-R ao trvii , pp rq y 'y uc /, R o�I _ R-6 f/ Oak Grove Il 5 1r# V , 0 i 1 MC—_I - ,OC/R-; R-ta /rD EC .� R&D Bonita 1 R•ao R-7.5 % T. 11`®PNA R�5 4f�PNA u, F SP ir�PNA I: R r 'r i a o '- 1 �• g' R-7 S r j SW Durham Rd I �� R le -a° pt J Concord R S f P •I '�. Ri5 Feld � 4CI Look Park .1 . lrnllry frail Durham IP �—� R-io R-ao F PF R Idldtin R-ic J — r� ■I UL: tr. rtry Club ' P P. - Jer PNA 1 Esri.NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, Tualatin 1,1 Rivergrove - 0 Gannon,SafeGraph,GerTechnologies,Inc,METI/NASA,USGS,Bureau of Land Management,EPA,MPS, I — J' USDA „ Mary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 Lake Oswego 0 HC =PNA =R.7.5 LAYER O IP ®R-0 =R-W CI C MC C R-I0 =I SP -CR&D O NC O R-15 O WLG OC O EC -NC/R-0 =R-2 =WIG R-2.5 MZI EC/R-0 O OC O R-3 O WIG RMU 0 FMU O OC/11-3 O R-5 =<all other values> 0 0.25 0.5 1 =GC =PF ER-6 Mlles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows.This land is not included in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 41 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County,State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University,which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW As noted above, properties in this category are generally not included in the inventory. However, some specific parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 42 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification vil�a niuyc q _ vim p \ •fo!lud �'\1,r��,�i1,�� y� I�� �� eli /� G rItt441P'‘ !_� �.� ��,�'�^��'` �i17�-I�J�'','-'mil �, _ � :altr.44,,,M ' JO ii A,,,,141:114 • f 1�� 4:t,I f� "' ,✓ 1� it%eirlir�� Lam%119 imuin: • IP' 4, Oak Gro �� „ �. row,..r '�' 111111111 k. dt.roe �_ � �,� : �—04 I ratt ALL. . ���.:.+ �,�r. �'/`��, �=� /� pat 441.• ,,,-.-•• ME rig ...4.,„-,„„, Ft*/ `11' r'fir 11‘, 1 ikm.° iiii4i ftmeie. -7 I Vvi P' jai- ♦" 4� I ! al_ t�li COi _ i� �1 .==ter 1 �piranimori4 _ R LIM ii .L..... IP '.0 $ I , li rririe 1,7--cc.%,,aul ,Itli ifirv...:146,,,e. , , kg Irv,- ,Iftw,,,r411 10 11— %' -'- UHF /` . , .. _„1:„......._ _. _ lug �.. v I` _ �'� i' s I I ' 11 U �� O I ` ,Miles °R E G Oc� 0 d.25 0.5 1 . . i Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type ® Study Area Land Type Residential Mixed Use Non-Residential Public/Other APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 43 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies.Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated,while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts, which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 44 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development s TF J, SW STEPHENSON ST V9� : y 1!41 SS NF.S���� +- _ FR 00 1 1 z0 0 1 1 a0 • t's....." II -. yy a • 1 TT /! '7 s. couNTRY A o Jl .,, i?" . 1 /": 1 L',"-dW 1 6 K R U S E WAY�°_..O 5y. v . -„.:3 ��y .., . q A V y .. f, D 3 MEI DOWS RD Q -...1 �I i" i ann:._:i/p4r1111•.,••• 1,P. •era.. h� E Z 1 C ,RQ'1.-FI I 'On1 EW,." oUNTA ik IL/N* ; r �IIL. l ✓w SW BON IOTA.RD i_'r ^� qP P , f' i �1111 .1✓ �� BEVD i4 �-_ -.r z,.... o r„ a w 1ma if a 2 _� FIR? VQ- ii► .-k ♦/ o tr AI I\�r�f�CCCJ?�L-' fp liir PpER PKE�\'`. 0 PEE" �<�` ( 1 `ORE J I II +� f G elic ESN -I'D E , iI' 1 1 4 S, a 1, -c % RR, % o GREENTREE P 2 ro' FR• 1 O� , 11 9C `� i.iAL / n Y E��OOKD JI ERGIS,RD O0 it 171/4 // ,11 1 1 �cE Av � / el/0. lit •1 �0 i O t CHILDS RD • 49. €ilb 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints ® Study Area Major Roads Taxlots Greenway Mgmt. - Overlay District Slopes>25% FEMA Floodplain Sensitive Lands Overlay Habitat Benefit Areas (HBA) Resource Conservation Areas (RC) Resource Protection Areas(RP) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 45 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 Mixed Use 490 96 397 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Publicly Owned/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Tax assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value; • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces; • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information; • Review of recent aerial imagery; and • Discussion and review with City staff and the Housing Production Strategy (HPS)Task Force. Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted. Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 46 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 • Partially Vacant. This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones,this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with a building value below$200,000,% acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix(see Error! Reference source not found.3) are a pplied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site. Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus Zone. Campus Research & 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of residential/non- (FMU) residential mix General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 47 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots, total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type.A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 175 Mixed Use 490 96 397 14 Non-Residential 172 21 150 _ Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 189 APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 48 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land v 5QPr,J 7A„,a.,/`, • �ri— , - � - 1 r�SW STEPHENSON ST - Phi •1',} �',�. { y s I t � oA ; ., i_ 1 � ''1 It U. _ ! 11' , _ �• • rr • 1 -, 4-'"ROSE STw - • -•� - rrI ,, ` ii. r or `2I�'1 f`e -� ;B R`D�.: _.Z'�_ fah -- - - �� KR'USE WAYS J Qa / A AVE_ i E 1 MEADOWS RD c Y -�` - -•. - "' ,. i �� -a 'l. _ z SW'BONITA RD� y CAPS QG 1..�4, oOUNTAIA g(Vu� �. - �•1 -IC: �fl A I 2 ZFI p ,r \S ,/ ' 4 p z i I �1!hTit - A 0 - - - >o -tee i- 4`\> ei j1 ee Ea Mc� - a- , P� i` ,eSHORE}(Vp .1 w � N O �\ ;,1 III ! r �- S 5 1 I . + S� ORL �_, 'r o-. GREENTREE RD-- � _ f 0`� ,FR P' i �0 3 ;..- oar_ �� Pa V 1.7 i II Q ` Y `^„ J���pOK--aqt S BERGIS/RD = ; �- , ,,,. , -- • . . . : !1��� I a •1' o �. :. �2. ... a lip C _ • t Q s9 .L' �A F A ► - _` 1�• ,i'1 ! m w w. '��OS BDh�i' _ OSFMO i �0 �,r�;'"1 ^- CHI LDS RD ' v2' �11 tiT F' O I _ y . ./90 U —� o EG Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status = Constraints Development Status Developed Partially Vacant Vacant ® Study Area APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 49 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones.This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density and Housing Mix Table 4 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis.The proportion of units expected to be developed as Single Family Detached, Middle Housing, and Multi-Family are also shown. Table 4. Unit Density and Mix Assumptions Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net DU/AC net 95% 5% R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area.4.3 4.3 du/ac net du/ac net. 95% 5% - R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 5.8 du/ac du/ac net 95% 5% - Residential-Medium Density Zones R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, —8 du/ac per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for 90% 5% 5% single-family. 1,500 for townhouse. R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac "'8 du/ac theoretically possible. 95% 5% - R-6 First Addition —7 du/ac Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for 95% 5% - Single-Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 50 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 —12 du/ac 70% 10% 20% min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac).Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-W "'12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% Mixed Use Zones West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes —5 du/ac Grove "R-5 density or greater" Residential - 50% 50% Mixed Use (WLG RMU) West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes 35 du/ac expected in Grove Office- "R-5 density or greater" BFR Staging Site, 20%- 0 Commercial 80% nothing in other areas (WLG OC) Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes Generally applies to Institutional "R-5 density or greater." Marylhurst University, o (CI) Must have commercial on which is treated - - 100% ground floor. separately. Campus 54 du/ac for projects Research& that include residential Table 50.03.002-2 notes ("30%of the district, as - - 100% Development o0 (CR&D) "R-5 density or greater" above) based on LU 19- 0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes —56 du/ac Commercial "R-5 density or greater." o (EC) Must have commercial on - - 100% ground floor. Foothills Table 50.03.002-2 notes —56 du/ac Mixed Use "R-5 density or greater" - - 100% (FMU) General Table 50.03.002-2 notes "'27 du/ac based on Commercial "R-5 density or greater." Mercantile project (LU (GC) Must have commercial on 18-0026) ground floor. Residential - 25% 75% not allowed "In the GC- zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road." Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes 8 du/ac (or R-5 density) Commercial "R-5 density or greater" for the 10%that may - - 100% (HC) develop as residential APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 51 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes 67 du/ac for the 50% Commercial "R-5 density or greater." that may develop as o 0 (NC) Must have commercial on residential (based on LU - 50/ 50/ ground floor. 07-0031) Office Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes 21 du/ac for the 50% (OC) "R-5 density or greater" that may develop as residential (based on - - 100% Galewood Commons Apartments) Summary of Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area, and Table 6 shows the breakdown of capacity by zoning designation. Land with a known development approval has been removed and is accounted for in a later step. Table 5. Capacity of Residential and Mixed Use Land Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Residential 174 705 Mixed Use 10 146 Non-Residential - - Public/Other - - Total 185 851 Table 6. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Land Type Unit Capacity Residential Land 705 Mixed Use Land 146 EC/R-0 5 CR&D 14 R-0 2 EC 67 R-10 241 GC 12 R-10 Comp Plan 14 NC 23 R-15 131 NC/R-0 9 R-3 28 OC/R-3 5 R-5 116 R-0 8 R-7.5 149 WLG-OC 7 R-7.5 Comp Plan 3 WLG-R RMU 1 R-DD 12 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 3 Total Capacity: 851 Units APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 52 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 7.Mix of Unit Capacity on Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Unit Capacity Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Units Units Units Residential 705 648 39 17 Mixed Use 146 5 23 118 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Total 851 653 62 136 Additional Capacity: In addition to the capacity listed above,the following categories of additional residential unit capacity have been identified.These are listed in Table 7, along with the expected mix of housing units. • Approved Development. Several parcels have land use approvals and/or are actively undergoing development. Where information about the unit capacity of these approvals is known,that information is used as future capacity (rather than an average assumption based on the zoning designation).These approvals are listed in Table 8. • Additional Middle Housing Capacity: Due to the City's middle housing legislation, most single family lots can be converted to duplexes or other middle housing types.The number of new units expected to be created through this process in the planning horizon is estimated at 1.5%of developed lots with single-detached dwellings outside of PUDs/easements.This totals 110 Units'. • Redevelopment of Commercial Land and Town Centers:An initial "strike price" analysis'found very few properties that appear to be good candidates for redevelopment at$30/sf. Value per square foot for many properties along Kruse Way and in Town Centers is generally$50/sf or greater.There may be some opportunity to utilize parking areas for new residential uses, depending on the City's development code and many other factors,though additional commercial infill is also a possibility. For the purposes of this BLI, no redevelopment capacity is assumed. 3 A previous version of this analysis assumed 3%of all single detached units, regardless of whether they were located in a PUD. Feedback from stakeholders and DLCD was that this infill assumption seemed high and was unrealistic due to the prevalence of CC&Rs in Lake Oswego. '"Strike Price" is a measure of land and building value per square foot at which a developer is assumed to be able to profitably redevelop a piece of property.The 2018 Metro BLI used a strike price of$12/sf for suburban jurisdictions—this analysis examine a more aggressive$30/sf and still found very few candidates for redevelopment. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 53 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 8. Parcels with Approved Development and Assumed Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Multi- Land Type Taxlot(s) Family Capacity Units Housing Units Units 21E18AB00400 Habitat for Humanity 21E18AB00300 Townhomes 21E18AB00200 23 0 23 0 [Link] 21E18AB00100 21E18AA00400 5400 Meadows [Link] 21E07BA00900 160 0 0 160 21E08AB02100 Twin Fir Road 2 2 0 0 21E08AB02000 The Boulder 21E07DD02300 [Link] 21E07DD02500 11 0 0 11 21E14DB02900 21E14 00300 21E14 00400 21E14 00401 21E14 00402 Marylhurst University 21E14 00403 170 0 0 170 21E14 00404 21E14 90000 21E14 900A1 21E14 900B2 Total 366 2 23 341 Table 9.Summary of Unit Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Capacity Units Units Units Vacant& Partially 851 653 62 136 Vacant Land Approved 366 2 23 341 Developments Additional Middle 110 - 110 - Housing Infill Total 1,327 655 195 477 Next Steps This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. It forms part of the factual basis for City policies to address any deficiencies in unit capacity. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 54 AN 25-0005 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 7.2 E r, COUNCIL REPORT v A. o OREGO� Subject: Resolution 25-42, Formation of an ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Staff Members: Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Report Date: September 30, 2025 Departments: Community Development Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑ Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑X Resolution Z Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: ❑ Council Direction ❑X Consent Agenda Staff Recommendation: Adopt Resolution 25-42 to form an ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to adopt Resolution 25-42. Project/ Issue Relates To: Begin the update of the Foothills District Plan and continue to evaluate the Lake Grove Urban Renewal Plan ❑X Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑Not Applicable BACKGROUND The City is in the process of updating the Foothills District Framework Plan (Plan), which was originally adopted in 2012. The Plan outlines how the Foothills neighborhood—located between downtown and the Willamette River—should grow and change over time. This work comes at a time when the City is reimagining what Foothills could be in light of a proposed Wastewater Treatment Facility project in the area that would replace the existing Tryon Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant. The update will be guided by a Community Advisory Committee (CAC) and supported by a TAC made up of City staff, partner agencies, and organizations. On June 17th, the City Council passed Resolution 25-33, creating an ad hoc Foothills CAC to provide input on updates to the Plan. Between July 15t and August 6th, staff recruited community members to serve on the Foothills CAC. On September 2nd, the City Council passed Resolution 25-31, approving the appointment of fifteen specific members to the Foothills CAC. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 DISCUSSION To support the 2025 City Council Initiative to begin the update of the Foothills District Plan, staff proposes to create an ad hoc Foothills TAC as described in Attachment 1. Per staff's recommendation, the TAC would be comprised of key City staff and representatives from local utilities and agency partners. This includes staff from City departments such as Planning, Engineering, Parks and Recreation, Public Works, Fire, and the City Manager's Office, in addition to representatives from Metro, TriMet, the Oregon Department of Transportation, Portland General Electric, the Lake Oswego Trolley Consortium, the Lake Oswego Arts Council, and the Tryon Creek Watershed Council. The TAC would also include two neighborhood property owners, though more property owners will likely be added in the future (when feasible). The TAC would be expected to provide technical expertise on subject matters and help refine planning concepts to assist the CAC, who will then help guide the development of the Plan to ensure the community's vision and values are reflected. The TAC will meet for approximately 15 sessions through the end of 2027. This will allow the TAC to continue to provide technical guidance throughout the course of the project, culminating in the adoption of post-Plan amendments to the Community Development Code and Comprehensive Plan. Proposed appointments of specific TAC members are included in Attachment A to Resolution 25-42, concurrent with the creation of the TAC. Staff notes that this is different than the process used for the CAC, which included a public solicitation to recruit members and two separate resolutions to create and appoint members to the CAC. FISCAL IMPACT Creation of an ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee will have minimal fiscal impact. Anticipated costs include staff time (existing), project consultant time, and meeting materials, all of which are covered in the Planning Department budget. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends adoption of Resolution 25-42 to form an ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee. Resolution 25-421 forms the ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee, establishing its charge, composition, and timeline. ATTACHMENT 1. Resolution 25-42, Formation of the ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee i LOC 12.50.010(1): "'Ad Hoc Committee' means a temporary committee appointed for a specific term to accomplish a specific task or project. Ad hoc committees shall be established by resolution of the Council. The resolution shall set forth the term of the committee,the task or project to be accomplished,the timeline for completion of the task of the project,and such other direction as the Council deems appropriate." Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY RESOLUTION 25-42 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCILORS OF THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CREATING AND APPROVING APPOINTMENTS TO AN AD HOC FOOTHILLS TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE. WHEREAS, a 2025 City Council Initiative is to 'Begin the update of the Foothills District Plan and continue to evaluate the Lake Grove Urban Renewal Plan'; and WHEREAS, the creation of an ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee to provide technical expertise on subject matters and help refine planning concepts would help staff make a recommendation for updates to the 2012 Foothills District Framework Plan and post-Plan amendments to the City Council. WHEREAS, the Mayor has proposed appointing, subject to the approval of the Councilors per City Charter, Sec. 19, those listed on Attachment 1 to this Resolution as members of the Foothills Technical Advisory Committee. NOW,THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego that: Section 1. Creation. Pursuant to LOC 12.50.010(1), an ad hoc Foothills Technical Advisory Committee ("TAC") is hereby created. Section 2. Membership. The persons identified on Attachment 1 are approved for appointment to the Foothills Technical Advisory Committee created under this Resolution. Section 3. Term. The term of the TAC is from the date of this Resolution through December 31, 2027, unless its tasks are concluded earlier or the term is extended by resolution of the City Council. Section 4. Charge Statement. The TAC is charged with providing technical expertise on subject matters and helping to refine planning concepts to assist the ad hoc Foothills Community Advisory Committee, who will then help guide the development of updates to the Foothills District Framework Plan to ensure the community's vision and values are reflected in the following deliverables: • An assessment of existing infrastructure and environmental conditions in the District; • The City's vision, goals, and objectives for the future of the District; • Concept- and schematic-level plan alternatives; • Selection of a preferred plan schematic; • Draft and revised Framework Plans; • Post-Plan amendments to the City Code and Comprehensive Plan; and • A full-scale public involvement strategy, contingent upon a City Council decision to advance this project. Section 5. Effective Date. This Resolution shall take effect upon passage. Resolution 25-42 Page 1 of 2 Considered and enacted at the regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego on the 7th day of October, 2025. AYES: NOES: ABSENT: ABSTAIN: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor ATTEST: Laura) Hawkins, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney Resolution 25-42 Page 2 of 2 l,A E 0� �0 CITY COUNCIL V ANI-- O Attachment 1 to Resolution 25-42 Foothills Technical Advisory Committee Appointments OR E 0> October 7, 2025 (term expires December 31, 2027) 1. Planning and Building Services Department: Johanna Hastay, Planning Manager 2. Engineering Department: Stefan Broadus, Director of Special Projects 3. Parks and Recreation Department: Kyra Haggart, Parks Analyst/ Project Manager 4. Public Works Department: Abigail Thyer-Ohly, Asset Manager 5. City Manager's Office: Amanda Watson, Sustainability Program Manager 6. Fire Department: Matthew Amos, Fire Marshal 7. Metro, Parks and Nature Department: Jamuna Golden, Principal Planner 8. TriMet, Service Planning and Delivery: Alex Page, Planner 9. Oregon Department of Transportation, Region 1: Kenneth Werth, Associate Planner 10. Oregon Department of Transportation Rail: Carrie Martin, Crossing Compliance Specialist 11. Portland General Electric: Syringa Volk, Senior Business Development Manager 12. Portland General Electric: Kenneth Spencer, Electrical Engineer 13. Lake Oswego Trolley Consortium: Elizabeth Mros-O'Hara, Investment Areas Project Manager at Metro 14. Lake Oswego Arts Council: Nicole Nathan, Executive Director 15.Tryon Creek Watershed Council: Alexis Barton-Castro, Executive Director 16. Foothills Property Owner: Michael Haftorson, 100 Foothills Road (Lakeshore Concrete) 17. Foothills Property Owner: Rich Martin, 220 Foothills Road Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY E r, COUNCIL REPORT v AP o OREGO� Subject: Amendment to the Use Agreement with the Lake Oswego School District for the competition pool at the Lake Oswego Recreation and Aquatics Center (LORAC) Meeting Date: October 21, 2025 Staff Member: Martha Bennett, City Manager Report Date: September 30, 2025 Department: City Manager's Office Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑X Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑ Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: ❑ Council Direction ❑ Consent Agenda Staff Recommendation: Authorize the Mayor to sign the amendment to the Use Agreement with LOSD to realign payment amounts and dates Recommended Language for Motion: I move to authorize the Mayor to sign the amendment to the intergovernmental agreement between the City of Lake Oswego and Lake Oswego School District No. 7J—Recreation and Aquatics Center Use and Lease Agreement Project/ Issue Relates To: Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑Not Applicable DISCUSSION The City and Lake Oswego School District (LOSD) signed an intergovernmental agreement governing the use of the LORAC in February 2022. That agreement sets forth the roles, rights, obligations and responsibilities and Parties for the use, operation, maintenance, repair and replacement of the Lake Oswego Recreation and Aquatic Center (LORAC). The agreement also included provisions for the amount that LOSD would pay for use of the competition pool. In March 2023, the two parties updated the agreement. At that time, we anticipated that the competition pool would be open during the 2024-2025 school year, and so there was a Respect. Trust. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 complicated formula for allocating operational costs because the City anticipated that the District would use the Competition Pool for a portion of the 2024-2025 school year. Additionally, at that time, fees for the District's use would be paid on a calendar year basis. The attached amendment reflects two major changes: 1. It is more straightforward for both LOSD and the City if the fees are paid on the basis of the fiscal year. Both entities have a July 1 to June 30 fiscal year. That also more closely mirrors the school calendar. 2. The formula for pro-rating the first year is deleted as LOSD's use of the LORAC began with the 2025-2026 school year. Under the agreement, LOSD will pay the following amounts: Fiscal Year 2025-2026 $204,000 Fiscal Year 2026-2027 $208,000 Fiscal Year 2027-2028 $212,000 During the third fiscal year, the City and LOSD will negotiate future payments based on the actual costs of the hours used by LOSD. FISCAL IMPACT These amounts are currently reflected in the budget for Parks & Recreation for the biennium. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends approval of this amendment. ATTACHMENTS 1. Amendment to the Intergovernmental Agreement Respect. Trust. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY FIRST AMENDMENT TO THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO AND LAKE OSWEGO SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 7J THIS AMENDMENT is made effective this day of 2025, by and between the City of Lake Oswego, an Oregon municipal corporation ("City") and Lake Oswego School District No. 7J, also known as Clackamas County School District No. 7, a common school district of the State of Oregon ("District") and amends the First Amended and Restated Intergovernmental Agreement between City of Lake Oswego and Lake Oswego School District No. 7J — Recreation and Aquatics Center Use and Lease Agreement. RECITALS A. Pursuant to an intergovernmental agreement, the City and District jointly funded the construction of a Recreation and Aquatic Center (the "LORAC"). B. Construction of the LORAC was completed in June 2025. C. The City and District signed an intergovernmental agreement governing the use and lease of the LORAC on May 3, 2022. That agreement set forth, among other things, the roles, rights, obligations and responsibilities and procedures of the Parties for the use, operation, maintenance, repair and replacement of the Project upon completion of construction and the method for sharing and providing for payment of those costs. D. The City and District signed First Amended and Restated Intergovernmental Agreement —Construction Agreement updating the cost share on March 8, 2023 ("Amended and Restated Agreement"). E. The Use and Lease Agreement anticipated that the LORAC would open in calendar year 2024. The actual opening date was June 26, 2025. The District's use of the LORAC began with the 2025-2026 school year. F. The Use and Lease Agreement anticipated that it may be amended. G. The City and District wish to make certain amendments to the Use and Lease Agreement relative to the schedule of payments for the District's use of the facility including payment amounts and timing. This Amendment is entered into under the authority of ORS 190.010. No intergovernmental entity is created under ORS 190.010(5). THE CITY AND DISTRICT AGREE AS FOLLOWS: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, capitalized terms in this Amendment will have the meanings given to them in the Use and Lease Agreement. 2. Section 6.2.3 of the Use and Lease Agreement is replaced in its entirety with the following: The District agrees to pay the City a minimum annual fee of$204,000 each fiscal year for use and operational support of the Aquatic Facility. The City will invoice the District on 150579675.1 0060568-00003 November 15 of each fiscal year, and the District will remit payment to the City within 30 days of receipt. Over the first three fiscal years of this agreement, commencing on July 1, 2025, the District agrees to pay the City: Fiscal Year 2025-2026 $204,000 Fiscal Year 2026-2027 $208,000 Fiscal Year 2027-2028 $212,000 During Fiscal Year 2027-2028, the District and City will review the actual costs associated with managing and operating the Aquatic Facility for the first two full years of operations for the purposes of establishing the fees to be paid by the District in future years. The City and District agree to complete this review prior to May 1, 2028 and to update this Agreement with the new payment schedule by July 1, 2028. 3. This Amendment, when executed, constitutes a modification to the Use and Lease Agreement, and all provisions of the Agreement, except as modified above and by any previous amendments, shall remain in full force and effect. 4. This Amendment may be executed in counterparts (including as a "pdf" or similar attachment to an email) each of which will be deemed an original and, when taken together, will be deemed to be one in the same Amendment. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, LAKE OSWEGO SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 7J an Oregon municipal corporation Joe Buck, Mayor Chair Date Date Attest: Laural Hawkins, City Recorder Attest: Approved as to Form Approved as to Form City Attorney District Legal Counsel 150579675.1 0060568-00003 9.1 E 0 COUNCIL REPORT V -w 0 GREGO\--" Subject: Resolution 25-44, Approving the Appointment of Two Alternates to the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Staff Member: Madison Thesing, Deputy City Manager Report Date: September 26, 2025 Department: City Manager's Office Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑ Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑X Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: ❑ Council Direction ❑X Consent Agenda Staff Recommendation: Adopt Resolution 25-44. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to adopt Resolution 25-44 Project/ Issue Relates To: Boards and Commissions Appointments Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable BACKGROUND • August 26, 2025, Kimvi To, a member of the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board, submitted her letter of resignation. • September 1, 2025, Radhika Shah, a member of the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board, submitted her letter of resignation. DISCUSSION On June 17, 2025, the City Council appointed Bill Miller and Alena Koza to one-year terms as an Alternates to the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board, serving July 1 through June 30, 2026. With the vacancy on the board due to both Kimvi To's and Radhika Shah's resignations, Respect cv el'erce. Trust. Se-VI'' 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 Mayor Buck appoints Bill Miller and Alena Koza to fill the remainder of their terms through June 30, 2027, subject to the approval of the City Councilors. ATTACHMENTS 1. Resolution 25-44 Respect. c . �!e Trust -—:-1._. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY ATTACHMENT 1 RESOLUTION 25-44 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCILORS OF THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO APPROVING THE APPOINTMENTS OF ALTERNATES TO THE DIVERSITY, EQUITY, AND INCLUSION ADVISORY BOARD. WHEREAS, the City Council, on June 17, 2025, appointed Bill Miller and Alena Koza to one-year terms as an Alternates to the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board; and WHEREAS, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board members, Kimvi To submitted a letter of resignation on August 26, 2025, and Radhika Shah submitted a letter of resignation on September 1, 2025; and WHEREAS, the Mayor appointed Bill Miller and Alena Koza to fill the remainder of the terms, subject to Council approval, pursuant to Section 19 of the City Charter. NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City Councilors of the City of Lake Oswego approve the Mayor's appointment of Bill Miller and Alena Koza to serve the remainder of the term on the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Advisory Board through June 30, 2027. This resolution shall take effect upon passage. Considered and adopted by the City Councilors of the City of Lake Oswego at a regular meeting held on the 7th day of October, 2025. AYES: NOES: ABSTAIN: EXCUSED: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor ATTEST: Laural Hawkins, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney 10.1 E 0 COUNCIL REPORT V —w 0 GREGo Subject: Respond to Racism and Arts Council of Lake Oswego public art project at the Lake Oswego Public Library Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Staff Members: Megan Phelan, Assistant City Manager; Melissa Kelly, Library Director Report Date: September 26, 2025 Departments: City Manager's Office; Library Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑X Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑ Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: ❑ Council Direction ❑ Consent Agenda Staff Recommendation: Approve the selection of Sahara Aylanna Defrees to be the artist for phase one of the Respond to Racism and Arts Council of Lake Oswego public art project at the Lake Oswego Public Library Recommended Language for Motion: Move to approve the selection of Sahara Aylanna Defrees to be the artist for phase one of the Respond to Racism and Arts Council of Lake Oswego public art project at the Lake Oswego Public Library Project/ Issue Relates To: General fund grant to Respond to Racism for community art project Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑S Not Applicable EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In January, 2025, Council awarded a General Fund grant of$37,000 to phase one of a community art project proposed by Respond to Racism, to be located at the Lake Oswego Respect cv el'erce. Trust. Se-iv 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 Public Library. Respond to Racism has collaborated with the City and the Arts Council of Lake Oswego to issue a Request for Proposals to artists, and to design a selection process, consistent with the City's Public Art Guidelines. In addition, Respond to Racism submitted a grant application for the Neighborhood Education Grant Program requesting $5,000 for this art project, and their grant request was approved by the Historic Resources Advisory Board in June, 2025. BACKGROUND Art Project Vision The vision for this public art project first came to the City's attention in 2020. As summarized in the Respond to Racism (RtR) grant application for project funding, the project vision includes the following aspirations: • "to not only acknowledge the painful history of exclusion and racism in our town, but to inspire a vision of a hopeful, united, and vibrant community that celebrates its diversity and becomes a model of inclusion where people of all backgrounds, races and ethnicities can thrive" • "to underscore our ability to transcend our past and reach for our destiny as one people - diverse but united ... by educating about the past and inspiring hope for the future" • "to facilitate a sense of introspection, knowledge, and hope with art that engages, educates, and inspires people of all ages—particularly youth and families" Art Project Scope RtR has envisioned this public art project as three phases of art installations near the Lake Oswego Public Library (LOPL). The current grant award scope is for phase one only and it includes: • Sidewalk stamps (ex. etchings, engravings, embedded artwork, etc.) with words along 4th Street between D and E Avenues • Interpretive panel(s) that communicate historically relevant and accurate information regarding the history of racism in Lake Oswego, the City's aspiration to be free of racism, and center residents of color (past and/or present) The current scope also includes a focus on ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act) accessibility, as well as consideration of sensory elements such as light and sound to further enhance accessibility. Project Transition from ARPA Grant to General Fund Grant For a variety of reasons, RtR was unable to place an artist under contract for this project by the end of 2024, which was the deadline by which the ARPA grant rules required local governments obligate all ARPA funds. On January 7, 2025, the City Council agreed with staff's recommendation to covert the ARPA Grant to a General Fund Grant using fund balance from Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 the Library and City Manager's Office budgets to fund the remaining components of the project. Neighborhood Education Grant Program Award RtR submitted a grant application for the Neighborhood Education Grant Program requesting $5,000 for this art project, and their grant request was approved by the Historic Resources Advisory Board in June, 2025. The $5,000 award is the maximum award amount based on available grant funding, and the funds need to be spent and the work needs to be completed prior to June 1, 2026. Timeline History For background, the timeline progression for this project to-date is summarized below. • 2020— RtR leaders held meetings with City leaders about the vision for the public art project • 2021— LOPL was identified as the host site; early visioning and planning meetings were held including RtR, ACLO, and Library and Engineering staff of the City • 2022— RtR applied for ARPA grant funds through the City for the public art project and received Council approval • 2023— Planning meetings continued • 2024— RtR received a date extension for disbursement of grant funds, hired a project manager, and prepared a Request for Proposals (RFP) for artist selection; however, for a variety of reasons RtR was not able to actually place an artist under contract before the end of 2024 • January 2025 —Council reallocated the ARPA funds to another project and awarded a General Fund grant to the RtR art project • February-June 2025 — RtR worked closely with the City and ACLO to ensure the process was consistent with the City's Public Art Guidelines • July—September, 2025— Request for Proposals (RFP) was issued, proposals were received, and the selection process was followed to narrow to one finalist DISCUSSION The Arts Council of Lake Oswego (ACLO) administered the selection of the artwork under the Public Art Guidelines approved by City Council in 2024. Their report is included as Attachment A. As you will see in the ACLO report, Sahara Aylanna Defrees has been identified as the finalist for this project. In the report is a link to artists proposal which is artwork consisting of four interpretive panels and a series of sidewalk stamps along the partial frontage of the Library, spanning from near the intersection of Fourth Street and D Avenue to the brick entryway to the Library. Respect. c . �!e Trust. q- , 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 4 It is important to note that a proposal is a not a finished product of the art, but rather a concept based on how the artist interprets and responds to the parameters outlined in the RFP. In that spirit, City Council may consider asking RtR and ACLO the following questions: • Please describe the artist's vision for the interpretive panels and the sidewalk stamps. • How will RtR, the ACLO, and the artist ensure that this artwork aligns with the mission of the Library, and that it is welcoming to all people? • What will be the inspiration for the quotes used for the sidewalk stamps? • How will potential location site constraints, like the number of interpretive panels, their size, and conflicts with landscaping and/or existing artwork on the site, be addressed? • Will there be words on the interpretive panels, and if so, what will they say? RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that City Council approve the selection of Sahara Aylanna Defrees to be the artist for phase one of the RtR and ACLO public art project at the LOPL. ATTACHMENTS 1. ACLO Report Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY ATTACHMENT 1 A 380 A Ave. Suite A Lake Oswego, OR 97034 503-272-1214 artscouncillo.org Respond to Racism (RtR) public art project at Lake Oswego Public Library (LOPL), ARTS COUNCIL facilitated by Arts Council of Lake Oswego (ACLO) OF LAKE OSWEGO Timeline: MAY 2025 • 5/23 MOU between City, RtR, and ACLO signed laying out roles and responsibilities of each entity (ALL) • 5/30 RFP finalized between RtR, ACLO, LO Library (ALL) o RFP included link to Public Art Guidelines criteria for pieces to enter the City's collection o RFP Scoring Guide for Public Art Installation Project included each of the required criteria listed in the Public Art Guidelines • 5/30 Call for applicants to Selection Committee Panelists finalized (ALL) June 2025 • 6/2-6/20 Call for Panelists (ALL) • 6/26/25, 4-5pm Panelist orientation-1 hr virtual meeting, approximately 30 min presentation on the project goals and review process, plus up to 30 min Q&A (ALL) o Project goals and Review process o Public art guidelines and overall criteria (Section 5.1.2), RFP Scoring Guide, o RtR mission o ACLO presented on: • Public art guidelines • RFP Scoring Guide • LO Perm Art Collection Strengths: regional artists, 2D landscape art, 2D lifestyle artwork, 3D static sculptures + LO Permanent Art Collection Weaknesses: interactive art, artwork by BIPOC artists, kinetic work, photographic work, site-specific artwork July &August 2025 • 7/15- 8/31 RFP open to applicants September 2025 • 9/1-9/7 Eligible applications move forward, Panelists receive materials (RtR) • 9/7 Panel finishes preliminary review and scoring, narrows 9 to 6 semifinalists (RtR). • 9/11 Facilitated deliberation meeting held with Panelists to identify 3 finalists (RtR). Three finalists were determined through two rounds of panelist review and deliberation, narrowed from an initial pool of 9, then down to 6 semi finalists, and down to 3 clear top finalists signed off on by our 9 community panelists. 380 A Ave. Suite A Lake Oswego, OR 97034 II 503-272-1214 artscouncillo.org • 9/12 Three finalists ranked in order relayed to ACLO and LOPL to be reviewed for ARTS COUNCIL eligibility by the Public Art Committee (RtR to PAC) OF LAKE OSWEGO • 9/15 Facilitated PAC meeting to review three finalists for eligibility and adherence to Public Art Guidelines criteria (Section 5.1.2). Narrowed from 3 to 2 finalists by PAC. (ALL) • 9/16-21 RtR Board receives 2 finalists to be reviewed and scored (RtR) • 9/23 Facilitated final deliberation meeting held to recommend top applicants to City Council (RtR) • 9/24 Final recommendation of Sahara Aylanna Defrees OCTOBER 2025 • 10/7 City Council meeting to consider final recommendation of Sahara Aylanna Defrees UPCOMING • Scheduled contract meeting with Ellen/City Attorney on 10/10 • Selected artist(s) notified by 10/8 or sooner, contract executed by 10/31 • All applicants notified by 10/22 • Fund distributed to artist by 11/26 References • RFP • Rubric • PAC meeting & review of Respond submissions • d Sahara Aylanna Defrees application packet 11 .1 E 0 COUNCIL REPORT V -w 0 O',EGO� Subject: Ordinance 2969, Annexing property at 210 Birdshill Road (AN 25-0006) Report Date: September 17, 2025 Staff Member: Paul Espe, Associate Planner Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Department: Planning and Building Services Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑X Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑X Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑ Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: This annexation is being processed as a ❑ Council Direction public hearing (not expedited decision) under Metro ❑ Consent Agenda Code 3.09.050(A-D). Staff Recommendation: Enact Ordinance 2969. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to enact Ordinance 2969. Project/ Issue Relates To: Annexation of residential property to the city. Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable EXECUTIVE SUMMARY/BACKGROUND The proposed annexation is owner-initiated and will result in the addition of approximately 0.54 acres of residential land to the City. This Council Report describes the reasons for the annexation and provides basic background information. This annexation will result in property that will be zoned R-10 Low Density Residential as designated in the Comprehensive Plan shown in Attachment A. The criteria for approving annexations and findings in support of this annexation are included in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 (Ordinance 2969). Applicant/Property Owners: Christina McChesney and Jose P. Ayhllon Location/Size: The subject property consists of 0.54 acres (23,522 square feet) and is located on the East side of Birdshill Road, approximately 1,100 feet northwest of the intersection of Terwilliger Blvd, and State Street. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Servic 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 '\-- Vicinity Maple d '' . _Anna St ,e�y i P� Q .: Proposed 4) a r� ii =z-a z Annexation ` ,om :r��` ,:` \ I: — > 1 , 10 ,.., .,...:.----...."-- [O u �� \` moult I I I - Q' /1.. " �.17r1,-1,fi H-- - -A •`�r erte a, �, I /� r / . • r---- , Existing Land Use: Tax Map/Lot 21E03AD00400 is occupied by a single-family dwelling and takes access from Birdshill Road. Neighborhood: The property is located within the Birdshill Neighborhood Association. Purpose of Annexation:The property owners initiated the annexation to connect to City sanitary services. DISCUSSION Plan and Zone Designation: The subject property is currently under Clackamas County's jurisdiction and zoned Low Density Residential (R-30). It is designated R-10, Low Density Residential on the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map and will be zoned R-10 upon annexation. Development Potential: This is a 0.54-acre parcel. Based on the size and shape of the parcel, the property can be divided into two parcels and developed to the density allowed under the middle housing standards. Sensitive Lands: There are no Sensitive Lands designated on the property. Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Statewide Goal 10 Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter Statewide Planning Goal 10 (and the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing chapter in the City's Comprehensive Plan) ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units, the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries, and to provide greater certainty in the development process in order to reduce housing costs. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Servic, 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 Staff has provided findings (Exhibit A-1, Attachment B) that the proposed annexation and designation of City R-10 zoning are consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the Housing Needs Analysis (HNA). The proposal would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA, is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan, and therefore complies with Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing. (See Attachment B for the complete findings under Goal 10). Sewer and Water Service: Sanitary sewer service can be made available from an existing 8-inch public sanitary sewer main located in Terwilliger Blvd along the site's west (or rear) lot line frontage. It is owned by the City of Portland and is provided to the City through an intergovernmental agreement. The property owner wishes to connect to the city sewer system because the septic system has failed (see note below). Upon connection to the sanitary line, the existing septic tank on the property will need to be decommissioned per DEQ standards. Note: The applicant has indicated an intent, following annexation, to connect to the city sewer service. The Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards and the Zone of Benefit that could be formed after construction of the main trunk line, which is on file with the Planning Dept. The applicant is advised to obtain a copy of the memo before preparing an application to connect to the City of Portland sewer system. Water is available from the Palatine Hills Water District. The nearest existing fire hydrant is located approximately 70 feet north of the site along the west side of Birdshill Road. The property will remain within the Palatine Hills Water District after annexation. Service Districts: Upon annexation and by operation of ORS 222.520, the property will be withdrawn from the Riverdale Rural Fire Protection #11 JT (No Bonded Debt) and the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District (No Bonded Debt), but will remain in the Palatine Hill Water District and the Library District of Clackamas County (per the 2009 County IGA) (no bonded debts for these Districts). Surface Water Management: Once the property is annexed, the territory will be subject to the City's stormwater management regulations. Any new development will be subject to these provisions, which ensure that new development does not have an adverse effect on adjoining properties and does not overburden the City stormwater system. Transportation: The City's 2015 Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Terwilliger Blvd. is identified in the City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) as a Minor Arterial and is under the jurisdiction of Clackamas County. The Terwilliger Blvd. right-of-way along the rear lot line frontage would be annexed to the City of Lake Oswego; however, the maintenance jurisdiction and permitting authority will remain under Clackamas County until after a formal road transfer is completed between the City and the County. Birdshill Road is identified in the City's TSP as a Local Street and is under the jurisdiction of Clackamas County. The Birdshill Road right-of-way along the front lot line frontage would not be annexed to the City and would remain under the jurisdiction of Clackamas County. Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 4 Tri Met Line 35 runs along Highway 43 (Riverside Dr. /State St.), operating between Portland State University and Oswego City. The transit stops at State St./ D Ave. (southbound) and State St. / E Ave. (northbound) provides the closest bus service to the subject property. The draft findings provided in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 conclude that the proposed annexation complies with all applicable State statutes and Metro code requirements. FISCAL IMPACT The estimated assessed value of the residential property is $397,690. The estimated tax revenue after the lot is annexed is $1,028. RECOMMENDATION Approve AN 25-0006 (Ordinance 2969). EXHIBITS A. Draft Ordinance AN 25-0006: A-1 Ordinance 2969 (Draft 09/17/25) Attachment A: Map of Proposed Annexation, 09/02/25 Attachment B: Criteria, Findings, Conclusion, and Effective Date, 09/17/25 B. Minutes None. C. Staff Reports None. D. Graphics/Plans None. E. Written Materials E-1 Housing Needs Analysis 2023 (Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10), 09/21/23 (due to size, use link below to view this exhibit) LINK TO PUBLIC RECORDS FOLDER FOR THIS CASE https://www.ci.oswego.or.us/WebLink/Browse.aspx?id=2988561&repo=CityOfLakeOswego Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service Ak 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY ORDINANCE 2969 AN ORDINANCE ANNEXING TO THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ONE PARCEL, CONSISTING OF 0.54 ACRES AT 210 SW BIRDSHILL ROAD AND THE PUBLIC RIGHT-OF-WAY; DECLARING CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ZONING OF R-10 PURSUANT TO LOC 50.01.004.5(a-c); AND REMOVING THE TERRITORY FROM CERTAIN DISTRICTS (AN 25-0006). WHEREAS, annexation to the City of Lake Oswego of the territory shown in the map in Attachment "A" and described below, would constitute a contiguous boundary change under ORS 222.111(2), initiated by petition from the property owners as outlined in ORS 222.111(2); and, WHEREAS, the City has provided written notification of this annexation as required under ORS 222.120(3); and, WHEREAS, the City has received consent for the proposed annexation from all of the property owners and not less than 50 percent of the electors residing in the territory as outlined in ORS 222.125; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District boundaries, which serves unincorporated property within Clackamas County, and the district has no bonded debt, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), and the territory shall be withdrawn from the district upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, the part of the territory that lies within the Riverdale Rural Fire Protection District #11 JT will, by operation of ORS 222.520, be withdrawn from that district immediately upon approval of the annexation, and the district has no bonded debt and the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), and the territory shall be withdrawn from the district upon approval of the annexation; and, and, WHEREAS, LOC 50.01.004.5 specifies that, where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific Zoning Map designation to be placed on the territory annexed to the City, such a zoning designation shall automatically be imposed on the territory as of the effective date of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, this annexation is consistent with the Urbanization Chapter of the City of Lake Oswego's acknowledged Comprehensive Plan, Oregon Revised Statutes 222.111(2), 222.120(3) and 222.125 for boundary changes, and Metro Code Sections 3.09.040(A) (1-4) and 3.09.045. Now,therefore,the City of Lake Oswego ordains as follows: Section 1. The real property described as follows is hereby annexed to the City of Lake Oswego: A tract of land located within the northeast quarter of Section 3, Township 2 South, Range 1 East of the Willamette Meridian, City of Lake Oswego, Clackamas County, Oregon, being a portion of the southerly one-half of Block 20, Map of Dunthorpe (Plat No. 407), plat records of Ordinance 2969,AN 25-0006 (21E03AD00400) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 1 OF 3 Clackamas County, said tract being all that property conveyed to Christina McChesney and Jose Ayhllon, by Bargain and Sale Deed recorded July 8, 2025, in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Recording No. 2025-026145; said tract of land more particularly described as follows: Beginning at a point on the westerly right-of-way line of Birdshill Road (County Road No. 2428), said point being West, 12.50 feet from an iron pipe at the southeast corner of said Block 20; Thence northerly along said westerly right-of-way line, along the arc of a 912.50-foot radius curve to the right, through a central angle of 5°51'24", 93.27 feet, more or less, (the curve thereof being parallel with and 12.50 feet westerly, when measured at right angles, from the curve along the centerline of said Birdshill Road and easterly line of the property as described in said Recording No. 2025-026145— Radius = 900.00 feet, Central Angle = 5°54'03, and Length = 92.69 feet) to the northerly line of the southerly one-half of said Block 20; Thence, leaving the said westerly right-of-way line, North 87°19'48" West along said northerly line, 240.27 feet to the easterly right-of-way line of Terwilliger Boulevard, as per right-of-way dedication recorded May 5, 1930, in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Book 207, Pages 9-10; Thence, leaving said northerly line, southerly along the said easterly right-of-way line, along the arc of a 994.93 -foot radius curve (as per said Book 207, Pages 9-10—Recording 2025-026145 deed record states 995.00-foot radius) to the right, through a central angle of 5°58'38", approximately 103.80 feet, more or less, to the southerly line of said Block 20; Thence leaving said easterly right-of-way line, East along said southerly line, 231.81 feet, more or less, to the point of beginning. Together with a segment of Terwilliger Boulevard 80.00-foot right-of-way; said segment being bounded northerly by the westerly projection of the northerly line of the southerly one-half of said Block 20; said segment being bounded southerly by the westerly projection of the southerly line of said Block 20. Said segment being 106 feet in length, more or less. The annexed territory is depicted on Attachment A. Section 2. The above recitals are incorporated. Section 3. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be retained within these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Palatine Hill Water District Library District of Clackamas County Section 4. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be withdrawn from these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Riverdale Rural Fire Protection #11 JT Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District Section 5. In accordance with LOC 50.01.004.5, the City zoning designation of R-10 shall be applied to the subject property on the effective date of annexation, as shown on Attachment A. Ordinance 2969,AN 25-0006 (21E03AD00400) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 2 OF 3 Section 6. The City Council hereby adopts the findings of fact and conclusions set forth in Attachment B in support of this annexation ordinance. Section 7. Effective Dates: a. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C, this ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. b. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177, this annexation shall be effective upon the later of either: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State. Provided, however, that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any city, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Read by title only and enacted at the regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego held on the 7th day of October, 2025. AYES: NOES: ABSTAIN: ABSENT: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor Dated ATTEST: Laura) Hawkins, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney Ordinance 2969,AN 25-0006 (21E03AD00400) EXHIBIT A-1/PAGE 3 OF 3 .♦♦ SG� Annexation to the City of Lake Oswego N., ♦♦ AN 25-0006/Ordinance 2969 ul • 'P• q, AA ,Q� s% o • O •• r__ /70 • i -... _-.7___ 4 i R-10 ___ / 13410 ‘ / 13485 l GLE 19 i \ r N.,/ 0 - - 7 % ' ROAD / %i r� 2 i 200 19 5 PNA I 265 a) • I- 222 �', i I 1 --------------------\ cn 13611 LIR:1,__O ��� ;- 245 / Attachment A �� '(---- Tax Lot ID: 21 E03AD00400 `��. ri Y City of Lake Oswego: .; COMPREHENSIVE PLAN = R-10, Residential Low Density .r ZONING = R-10, Residential Low Density -LClackamas County:ZONING = R-30, Urban Residential Low Density r'N ,I Lake Oswego M Sub ect ♦ L——J City Limits Property ♦ • 0 100 200 300 400 i ' ♦• Feet ♦ ATTACHMENT B Criteria, Findings,Conclusion,and Effective Date APPLICABLE CRITERIA: A. Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation; Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. 2. ORS 222.120(1, 3) Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing; Ordinance Subject to Referendum. 3. ORS 222.125 -Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. B. Metro Code. 1. 3.09.030 (A-C) Notice Requirements 2. 3.09.040(A)(1-4) Requirements for Petitions. 3. 3.09.050 Hearing and Decision Requirements for Decisions Other Than Expedited Decisions C. Comprehensive Plan - Urbanization Chapter 1. Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services." 2. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." 3. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve the subject property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." 4. Policy D-3: "Enter into and maintain an Urban Growth Management Agreement with Clackamas County for lands within the Urban Services Boundary to ... (g) "Promote orderly annexation of territory." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) Policy B-1: "Provide and maintain zoning and development regulations that allow the opportunity to develop an adequate supply and variety of housing types, and that accommodate the needs of existing and future Lake Oswego residents." E. OAR 660-008-0010 Allocation of Buildable Land FINDINGS: A. Oregon Revised Statutes(ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation; Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. ORS 222.111(2) provides that a proposal for annexation of territory to a City may be initiated by the legislative body of the City, on its own motion, or by a petition to the legislative body of the City by owners of real property in the territory to be annexed.The property owners have petitioned the City for this annexation.The proposed annexation complies with this statute. 2. ORS 222.120 Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing;Ordinance Subject to Referendum. ORS 222.120 (1,3) states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation to the electors of the city for their approval or rejection if the legislative body provides for a duly noticed public hearing before the legislative body at which time the electors of the City may appear and be heard on the question of annexation. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 1 OF 10 The City has provided written notification of this annexation by publishing a notice once each week for two consecutive weeks prior to the day of the hearing in a newspaper of general circulation in the city and posted the notice of public hearing in four public places as required under ORS 222.120(3). The notice was published in the Lake Oswego Review and was posted at the City Hall, the Adult Community Center the City Library and the Operations Center.The notice contained information about the affected territory, time and place of the public hearing and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report. The annexation notification and review procedures comply with this statute. 3. ORS 222.125-Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. ORS 222.125 states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation within the area proposed to be annexed if all of the owners of land in the territory and not less than 50 percent of the electors, if any, residing in the territory consent in writing to the annexation.The property is occupied by a single-family dwelling that is now vacant.The property owners who are also electors have consented to the annexation.The proposed annexation complies with this statute. B. Metro Code 1. 3.09.030—Notice Requirements A. The notice requirements apply to all boundary change decisions by a reviewing entity except expedited decisions made pursuant to MC 3.09.045.These requirements apply in addition to, and do not supersede applicable requirements of ORS Chapters 197, 198, 221 and 222 and any city or county charter provision on boundary changes. B. Within 45 days after a reviewing entity determines that a petition is complete,the entity shall set a time for deliberations on a boundary change. The reviewing entity shall give notice of its proposed deliberations by mailing notice to all necessary parties 1, by weatherproof posting of notice in the general vicinity of the affected territory and by publishing notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the affected territory. Notice shall be mailed and posted at least 20 days prior to the date of deliberations. Notice shall be published as required by state law. C. The notice requirements in Subsection B shall: 1. Describe the affected territory in a manner that allows certainty; 2. State the date,time and place where the reviewing entity will consider the boundary change; and 3. State the means by which any person may obtain a copy of the reviewing entity's report on the proposal. The City has provided written notification of this annexation to necessary parties (mailed notice), to the general vicinity (posting of the notice of annexation on these properties on September 17, 2025), and by publishing notice to the Lake Oswego Review, a newspaper of general circulation in the City. All notices were given at least 20 days prior to the date of the public hearing for annexation as required under MC 30.09.030 B.The notices contained information about the affected territory,time and place of the public hearing and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report. The annexation notification and review procedures comply with the Metro code requirements. 1 "Necessary party" means "county; city; district whose jurisdictional boundary or adopted urban service area includes any part of the affected territory or who provides any urban service to any portion of the affected territory; Metro; or any other unit of local government." Metro Code 3.09.020(J). Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 2 OF 10 2. 3.09.040- Requirements for Petitions. A. A petition for a boundary change must contain the following information: 1. The jurisdiction of the reviewing entity to act on the petition; 2. A map and a legal description of the affected territory in the form prescribed by the reviewing entity; 3. For minor boundary changes,the names and mailing addresses of all persons owning property and all electors within the affected territory as shown in the records of the tax assessor and county clerk; and, 4. For boundary changes under ORS 198.855 (3), 198.857, 222.125 or 222.170, statements of consent to the annexation signed by the requisite number of owners or electors. The above information was submitted as required by Metro Code. The property owners have signed the application and petition.A map and legal description in the form required by the City have been included in the application materials and are on file.The property owners have consented to the annexation on the annexation petition, meeting the consent requirements of ORS 222.125. The annexation petition complies with the Metro code requirements. 3. 3.09.050(B, D) Hearing and Decision Requirements for Decisions Other Than Expedited Decisions 3.09.045(D, E) Expedited Decisions(criteria incorporated for non-expedited decisions by MC 3.09.050(D)) B. Not later than 15 days prior to the date set for a hearing a report shall be available to the public that addresses the criteria identified in subsection (D) and includes the following information: 1.The extent to which urban services are available to serve the affected territory, including any extra territorial extensions of service; 2. Whether the proposed boundary change will result in the withdrawal of the affected territory from the legal boundary of any necessary party; and 3.The proposed effective date of the boundary change. These findings meet subsection B. 3.09.045 Expedited Decision D. To approve a boundary change through the expedited process the City shall: 1. Find that the change is consistent with expressly applicable provisions in: a. Any applicable urban service agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.065 The City has entered into ORS 195.065 agreements with: 1) Lake Oswego School District, and 2) Lake Grove Fire District. This property is not in the Lake Grove Fire District, the Rivergrove Water District or the Lake Grove Park district. None of the ORS 195.065 agreements are applicable to this proposal. (Note: The intergovernmental agreement with the Rivergrove Water District is not discussed in this section because it was entered into before the adoption of ORS 195.065, and consequently does not include all of the provisions necessary to be considered an "urban service agreement" under that statute.) b. Any applicable annexation plan adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205. There are no applicable annexation plans adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205 relating to the affected territory. c. Any applicable cooperative planning agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.020(2) between the affected entity and a necessary party. There are no ORS 195.020(2) cooperative agreements (which relate to special districts) between the City and a necessary party. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 3 OF 10 d. Any applicable public facility plan adopted pursuant to a statewide planning goal on public facilities and services. Consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 11 (Public Facilities) and the Community Health and Public Safety Chapter of the Comprehensive Plan,the City maintains a Public Facilities Plan (PFP). The PFP consists of master plans for streets, sanitary sewer, water, and stormwater facilities, which provide the basis for long-range planning for both the incorporated and unincorporated lands within Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary(USB).The PFP is comprised of the Lake Oswego Transportation System Plan, Wastewater Master Plan, Water System Master Plan, and Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan, pursuant to Statewide Planning Goals 11 (Public Facilities) and 12 (Transportation). Wastewater Master Plan: Sanitary sewer service can be made available from an existing 8-inch public sanitary sewer main located in Terwilliger Blvd along the site's rear lot line frontage. It is owned by the City of Portland and is provided to the City through an intergovernmental agreement.The property owner wishes to connect to the City sewer system because the septic system has failed (see note below). Upon connection to the sanitary line,the existing septic tank on the property will need to be decommissioned per DEQ standards. Note:The applicant has indicated an intent, following annexation, to connect to the City sewer service. The Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards and the Zone of Benefit that could be formed after construction of the main trunk line, which is on file with the Planning Dept.The applicant is advised to obtain a copy of the memo before preparing an application to connect to the City of Portland sewer system. The sewer line has been installed and maintained in accordance with the provisions of the City's Wastewater Master Plan. Water System Master Plan: Water is available from the Palatine Hill Water District.The nearest existing fire hydrant is located approximately 100 feet north of the site along west side of Birdshill Road.The property will remain within the Palatine Hill Water District after annexation. Future extension of water lines, if needed to serve future development, will be constructed and maintained in accordance with the City's Water System Master Plan (L0050.06.008.3.a, .f) or Palatine Hill Water District standards. Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan: After annexation, on-site surface water management will fall under various provisions of the Lake Oswego Code and the Clean Streams plan. However, stormwater runoff from new and/or replaced impervious surface areas shall be managed in accordance with the City's Stormwater Management Code (LOC 38.25). The Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan does not identify any future projects for this section of Birdshill Road. Transportation (Statewide Planning Goal 12):The City's 2015 Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. The site has frontage on both Terwilliger Blvd (rear lot line) and Birdshill Road (front lot line). Terwilliger Blvd is identified in the City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) as a Minor Arterial and is under the jurisdiction of Clackamas County.The Terwilliger Blvd. right-of-way along the rear lot line frontage would be annexed to the City of Lake Oswego; however, the maintenance jurisdiction and permitting authority will remain under the County until after a formal road transfer is completed between the City and the County. Birdshill Road is identified in the City's TSP as a Local Street and is under the jurisdiction of Clackamas County.The Birdshill Road right-of-way along the front lot line frontage would not be annexed to the City and would remain under the jurisdiction of Clackamas County. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 4 OF 10 Tri Met Line 35 runs along Highway 43 (Riverside Dr./State St.), operating between Portland State University and Oswego City.The transit stops at State St./ D Ave. (southbound) and State St. /E Ave. (northbound) provides the closest bus service to the subject property. e. Any applicable comprehensive plan policies Comprehensive Plan Map:This property is currently designated R-30 Low Density Residential on Clackamas County's Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Maps. It is designated Low Density Residential, R-10 on the City's Comprehensive Plan Map. As required under LOC 50.01.005.5, upon annexation, a City zoning designation of R-10 will be automatically applied to this property. The City and County have coordinated their comprehensive plans within the Dual Interest Area outlined in the City-County Urban Growth Management Agreement (UGMA) (dated February 4, 1992 and updated November 18, 1997), hence the City/County designations have been determined to be compatible.The proposed zoning designation of R-10 is consistent with the UGMA between the County and the City. Comprehensive Plan Policies:The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan contains the following relevant language in the Urbanization chapter: Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services."The property to be annexed is within the City's Urban Services Boundary.Therefore, the proposed annexation and the withdrawal of this property from the identified districts is consistent with this policy. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." The approval of this annexation will result in the addition of 0.54 acres to be served by the City.As stated in Section 2(b)(1), the addition of this territory will not detract from the City's ability to provide police and fire protection to existing City residents. As outlined elsewhere in these findings and the incorporated materials, annexation of this property will not affect the City's ability to provide parks and recreation services, sewer or water services. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve the subject property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." Availability of urban services serving this property is discussed below: Water: Water is available to serve the subject property as detailed in subsection D.1.d.The property will remain within the Palatine Hill Water District after annexation. Sewer: Sanitary sewer service is available to serve the subject areas as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Stormwater: As detailed in subsection D.1.d,future development will be required to comply with the City standards for stormwater management. Fire Protection:The Riverdale Rural Fire Protection District#11 JT serves this property through an intergovernmental agreement with the City. Upon annexation, the property will be withdrawn from this Fire District and be served directly by the City.The Main Fire Station on 300 B Avenue, located southwest of the site, would be able to respond to emergencies under the eight-minute goal established in the Comprehensive Plan. Police: Upon annexation,this property will be withdrawn from the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District and served by the City of Lake Oswego.The Sheriff's District has no bonded debt.The Lake Oswego Police Department reviewed the proposal and indicated that it does not have any concerns with serving this property upon annexation. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 5 OF 10 Parks and Open Space:The City has 629 acres of park and open space lands, or 14.6 acres per 1,000 population.The park nearest to this property is Tryon Cove Park east of the site.The nearest improved City Parks are Foothills Park and Roehr Park southeast of the property.Tryon Cove Park is a natural park and has a rental facility and launch site for small boats. Foothills Park is nine acres along the Willamette River waterfront. It features a covered platform above the river, a timber and stone picnic pavilion with a stone fireplace; pathways, a reflecting pond, and a grass amphitheater. The City's park system will not be overburdened by any additional population annexed to the City with this application. Library District of Clackamas County:The Library District was formed to act as the fiscal agent for the distribution of property tax revenues raised by the District permanent rate to participating local governments who operate public libraries within Clackamas County.This property will remain within the Library District of Clackamas County following annexation. Transportation -Streets and Mass Transit:Transportation infrastructure and transit service is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d, above. Other Urban Services: LOC 50.06.008.3 requires that all development be provided with the following utility services: sanitary sewer, water, sidewalks, pedestrian and bicycle paths,traffic control signs and devices, street lights, streets, and TV cable.These utilities are now in place or can be put in place to serve this property. In the event that future development occurs, an applicant for development is obligated to construct all necessary public facilities to serve their development. Policy D-3: "Enter into and maintain an Urban Growth Management Agreement with Clackamas County for lands within the Urban Services Boundary to Promote orderly annexation of territory." Urban Growth Management Agreement The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Urbanization Chapter, Policy D-3, calls for the City to enter into and maintain an UGMA with Clackamas County for lands within the USB. Similarly, General Urbanization Policy 4.A.4 of the Clackamas County Comprehensive Plan calls for the establishment of Urban Growth Management Areas and UGMAs to clarify planning responsibilities between the County and cities for areas of mutual interest. Policy 4.A.5 directs the County to establish agreements with cities and service districts to clarify service and infrastructure responsibilities for areas of mutual interest. In furtherance of these policies,the City and County have entered into an UGMA that stipulates a mutual interest in coordinated land use planning, compatible comprehensive plans and provision of urban services and facilities. This agreement ensures coordination and consistency between the City and County comprehensive plans and outlines responsibilities in providing services and managing growth within the Dual Interest Area. Subsections 6 and 7, provided below, are applicable to annexations. "6C. City and County Notice and Coordination: The City shall provide notification to the County, and an opportunity to participate, review and comment, at least 35 days prior to the first public hearing on all proposed public facilities plans, legislative changes to the City Comprehensive Plan, or quasi-judicial land use actions adjacent to, or in close proximity to unincorporated areas. The City shall provide notice to the County of private or City initiated annexation requests within five days of the filing of an application with the Portland Metropolitan Boundary Commission." The City-County UGMA specifies that the City notify the County of an annexation request within five days of when it is submitted to the Boundary Commission.There is no longer a Boundary Commission for the Portland Metropolitan area. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 6 OF 10 Staff relies on the notice requirements of Metro Code 3.09.045(B), which requires mailing notice to all necessary parties, posting of a weatherproof notice in the general vicinity of the affected territory and by publishing notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the affected territory. Notice shall be mailed and posted at least 20 days prior to the date of deliberations. The notice required by MC 3.09.030 shall follow the requirements under MC 3.09.030(C), where the notice shall describe the affected territory in a manner that allows certainty, state the date, time and place where the reviewing entity will consider the boundary change; and, state the means by which any person may obtain a copy of the reviewing entity's report on the proposal. Clackamas County is a "necessary" party under the Metro Code definition and was notified on September 17, 2025, 20 days before the public hearing. "7. City Annexations A. The City may undertake annexations in the manner provided for by law within the Dual Interest Area. The City annexation proposals shall include adjacent road right- of-way to property proposed for annexation. The County shall not oppose such annexations. B. Upon annexation, the City shall assume jurisdiction of the County roads and local access roads pursuant to a separate road transfer agreement between the City and county." The City is undertaking this annexation in the manner provided for in the applicable ORS and Metro Code for the territories that lie within the Dual Interest Area.This annexation is consistent with the City and County comprehensive plans which have been coordinated in the Dual Interest Area within the regional Urban Growth Boundary(UGB). The right-of-way adjacent to this property is within the City Boundary and although the portion of this road way along the frontage of this property has been annexed to the City,the road maintenance jurisdiction will not be transferred to the City until it is appropriate to complete a road transfer process with the County in the future. Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter The Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter of the City's Comprehensive Plan implements Statewide Housing Goal 10 and the Portland Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0000 et seq.), which requires that the City plan for a supply of residentially zoned land with an average allowed density of 10 dwelling units per net acre, and the opportunity to develop a mix of housing types consisting of not less than 50%attached and multifamily dwellings. Compliance with the State rules ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units and the efficient use of buildable land within UGBs,while promoting certainty in the development process to help reduce housing costs. The following Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) provides standards for compliance with Goal 10 "Housing" pursuant to ORS 197.296 (Buildable Lands) and ORS 197.303 through 197.307 (Needed Housing): OAR 660-008-0010 Allocation of Buildable Land The mix and density of needed housing is determined in the housing needs projection. Sufficient buildable land shall be designated on the comprehensive plan map to satisfy housing needs by type and density range as determined in the housing needs projection. The local buildable lands inventory must document the amount of buildable land in each residential plan designation. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 7 OF 10 The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter, adopted pursuant to Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule, is designed to meet Lake Oswego's housing needs for not less than a twenty-year planning period.The Comprehensive Plan Map designates residential land use designations within the City limits and within Lake Oswego's USB through the year 2035. The Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations are consistent with the City's Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) 20 Year Housing Need Forecast 2023-2043 (9/21/23), also incorporated herein by reference, and the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA,which specifies future zoning of lands with the USB upon annexation to Lake Oswego.These designations match the corresponding Zoning Map designations such that there is only one zone for each Plan designation, and therefore only one zone that is applied to each lot upon annexation, consistent with the UGMA and in compliance with Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule. In the case of the subject application,the applicable Plan Map designation and corresponding Zone Map designation is R-10. The HNA is based on the Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations. Figure 6.3 of the HNA, excerpted below,forecasts a citywide deficit of 642 units (86 acres), including a deficit of 192 units (38 acres) of low-density residential land,to meet the city's housing needs by 2043. FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate(0.05%) Zone&Plan Typical HousingType Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Category yP yp Housing Unit New Unit Avg. Capacity Need(2043) Units Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) S (38) Some SF attached&plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home;2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics The proposed annexation would add 0.54 acres of low-density residential land to the City's Buildable Lands inventory(BLI),which would correspondingly reduce the deficit of low-density residential land needed to meet the city's housing needs by 2043 by 0.54 acres. The proposed annexation and designation of City zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the HNA;therefore,the annexation and zone change comply with Goal 10 and its implementing administrative rules. In this case,the zoning district would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA. The City uses the following approach for findings supporting two types of annexation zone changes: • Option 1 is for annexation-related non-discretionary Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map amendments. • Option 2 is for annexation-related discretionary Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map amendments. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 8 OF 10 "Non-discretionary" amendments are Zoning Map amendments applied to an annexed property (or properties) where the applicable zoning designation is prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and a zoning conversion table in the City-County UGMA. "Discretionary" amendments are where more than one zoning designation is applicable, as prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and the City-County UGMA, and the City Council has discretion in applying zoning. The proposed rezoning in AN 25-0006 is non-discretionary because the zoning is prescribed by the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and the zoning conversion table in the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA. The City's R-10 zone is proposed to be applied consistent with (matching)the R-10 land use designation in the City's Goal 10/Metro Housing Rule-compliant Comprehensive Plan.The Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0035(3)) states that Lake Oswego must provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre.The City's R-10 zone allows for the development of townhouse projects on properties meeting the minimum lot size of 1,500 sq.ft., corresponding to a density of more than 29 dwelling units per acre.The City's R-10 zone also allows for the development of cottage cluster developments of up to 8 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size of 10,000 sq.ft., corresponding to a density of more than 34 dwelling units per acre. Additionally,the City's R-10 zone allows for the development of quadplexes containing 4 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 17 dwelling units per acre. Further,the City's R-10 zone allows for the development of triplexes containing 3 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 13 dwelling units per acre.Therefore,the City's R-10 zone meets the requirement to provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. The City Council does not have discretion to apply a different zone to the subject property unless it is amending the Comprehensive Plan to change the land use designation; therefore,the City does not evaluate proposed zones against its HNA.The City simply applies the zoning that is prescribed by the Comprehensive Plan, consistent with the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Goal 10) chapter of the Plan. In doing so,the City relies on LOC 50.01.004.5.a,which states that the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map provides for the future City zoning of all property within the City's USB. In cases where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific zoning map designation,this designation is automatically imposed on territory when the property is annexed to the City. In conclusion,the proposed R-10 zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and City-County UGMA for the subject property, and the City Council does not have other zoning options from which to choose in approving AN 25-0006. f. Any applicable concept plan There are no applicable concept plans in this area. 2. Consider whether the boundary change would a. Promote the timely orderly and economic provision of public facilities and services b. Affect the quality and quantity of urban services c. Eliminate or avoid unnecessary duplication of facilities or services The proximity of this property to existing City services will allow this annexation to promote the timely, orderly, and economical extension of public facilities and services. It can readily be served with urban services and facilities. If and when additional development occurs in the area, provision of public facilities and services will occur consistent with the City's adopted public facility master plans, ensuring that it does not adversely affect the quality or quantity of urban services and avoiding unnecessary duplication of facilities or services.Therefore,this boundary change is consistent with criteria 2.a through 2.c. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 9 OF 10 E. A city may not annex territory that lies outside the UGB except it may annex a lot or parcel that lies partially within and partially outside the UGB. The property to be annexed is located entirely within the City's UGB. C. Comprehensive Plan- Urbanization Chapter See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies—Urbanization." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10)." E. OAR 660-008-0010-Allocation of Buildable Land See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10)." CONCLUSION: Based on the criteria and findings set forth above,the City Council concludes that AN 25-0006 complies with all applicable criteria and the annexation should be approved. EFFECTIVE DATE: A. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C.,the ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. B. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177,this annexation shall be effective upon the later of: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State; provided however that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any City, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Ordinance 2969 (AN 25-0006) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 10 OF 10 ATTACHMENT 2 (ORDINANCE 2934) LU 23-0023 tt 1 11'11Lrl1___1 a mod. .:.�N i: GS I � '"'�"� k0 l ... °"'".� r,.* - a l 1, ilea I I 4-? aisix 'II 'I Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 September 21, 2023 ;;� JOHNSON ECONOMICS AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Lake Oswego Housing Task Force Kasey Adler,Transportation Advisory Board Yoko Kinoshita, Resident Kyrsten Baumgart, Housing producer Rebecca Lane, Resident Phil Bertrand, Housing producer Rosalie Nowalk, Resident Joseph M. Buck, City Council Liaison John E. Pauley, Resident Thea Croman, DLCD Bruce Poinsette, Development Review Commission Kelly Reid, DLCD Phillip Stewart, Planning Commission Liaison Douglas Corder, 50+Advisory Board David Tangvald, Housing producer Pat Ginn, Resident Kimvi To, D.E.I. Advisory Board Diana Howell, Resident John Turchi, Resident Cara Kao-Young, Resident Sarah Walker, Housing producer Betty Jung, Resident Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Andrew Parish, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS 8 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY 10 I. INCOME TRENDS 11 J. POVERTY STATISTICS 12 K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 12 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 14 A. HOUSING TENURE 14 B. HOUSING STOCK 14 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 14 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 15 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 16 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 17 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 18 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 20 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 26 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED(2043)&LAND SUPPLY 32 APPENDIX A: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY 35 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043,consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: ■ Portland State University Population Research Center ■ Metro ■ U.S.Census ■ Cla ritas2 ■ Oregon Employment Department ■ City of Lake Oswego ■ Clackamas County ■ Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey(ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego,as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin,and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population' 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);51901;519301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of 2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS 5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-yearACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000,while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households. This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period.The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons;69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census. Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2: NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more ° Renter 6-person 1�° Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in 2 4-person 11% v 18% = 3-person 11% 19% 2-person 35% 38% 1-person ° 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census, the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8% of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households.In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits:An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000,with 24%being multi-family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi-Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 100I ' 50 ' — I ' 0 OO O'L OR Oro Orb 0 yL 0� yco 4' ti0 ,ti'L ,y0 ,LO ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 2.4:AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) ti o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% v ,,go' N. o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti co 0 15% -1 m ti m v N o , , c-I o N o * o c-I c-I e , 0 o —, 0 , 1-1 O c , 10% '" O1 o 0 o Un Un 5% a mi N N c 0% ■ a co A Lb J aec �o ,co �o �o �o ,,o ,co Lb J� 4, 4, 0, t< 5' 4h 4, SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5:SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 10% 10% II 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B11005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS The following figure presents the distribution of Lake Oswego's population by race and Hispanic ethnicity. The community grew more diverse between the 2010 and 2020 Census, with the population's white (non-Hispanic) share falling from 90%to 80%. The Asian population makes up 8% of the population, and the Hispanic or Latino population makes up 5%of residents.9%of residents identify as two or more races. FIGURE 2.6: RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY,2010—2020(LAKE OSWEGO) 100% Share of Population by Race o Lake Oswego(2010) oo 80% •Lake Oswego(2020) 60% •Clackamas Co. 40% Oregon 20% o o 00 e o o. o u, o o M _. °) C -O N C Cl) Cl) 0 co C > co -O ro 0 c LE L., 17, w (0 C Q CO 0 C f0 N J N c) COZ Q ro a) O I° O 0 p Y COYv a E a_' CO o_ N Lc) ± SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P1,P2(2010,2020) In comparison,the share of the population identifying as white is also 80%in Clackamas County,and 75%statewide. The share of Lake Oswego's population identifying as Hispanic or Latino is 5% of the population, indicating over 2,100 people as of the 2020 Census.This is lower than the 14%share statewide. FIGURE 2.7:AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Average Household Size by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 2.5 White alone 2.4 Black or African American alone 2.5 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 2.8 Asian alone 2.8 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 3.5 Hispanic or Latino 3.7 Some Other Race alone 4.0 Two or more races: 2.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Avg.Number of Persons per Household SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P17A-H,(State of Oregon,2020) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2010).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature unusually large margins of error due to the small sample size. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Minority households tend to have a larger average household size than the average of all households (Figure 2.7). (This figure presents statewide data due to the high margin of error for local data in this data set.) Households identifying as"white alone" have the lowest average household size(2.4 persons),while all other racial and ethnic categories have a larger estimated average household size. Some of the non-white categories, such as black households and those of two or more races,are still similar in average size(2.5 and 2.7 persons,respectively).Those with the largest estimated households are Latinos, Pacific Islanders,and those identifying as"some other race." Larger average household size indicates a need for units with more bedrooms on average among many minority households. Each household has its own housing needs in terms of the number of bedrooms and other factors, based on the specific makeup of each family. Based on voluntary guidelines provided by HUD for public housing programs, households of between 2 persons generally need a one-bedroom unit, households with 3 persons might need two bedrooms, and those with 4 persons might need three bedrooms. Larger households may need four or more bedrooms,which are typically found in single detached homes. Based on statewide data, many racial and ethnic minorities are currently less likely to own the homes they occupy (Figure 2.8)—meaning that they tend to occupy rental units.These communities face systemic obstacles to home ownership,including lower generational wealth, less access to capital and financing,and a history of discrimination in lending and geography(e.g.,redlining).While the country and state try to address explicit discrimination through the law, the legacy of these barriers continues to hamper home ownership for many minority households. Going forward, many communities would benefit from more entry-level homebuying opportunities for these households, as well as additional rental housing for those who are still unready or unable to buy a home. FIGURE 2.8: HOME OWNERSHIP RATE BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Owner-Occupied Households by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 63% White alone 65% Black or African American alone 36% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 48% Asian alone 63% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 32% Hispanic or Latino 45% Some Other Race alone 43% Two or more races: 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ownership Rate SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25003A-H,(State of Oregon,2021 ACS 5-year) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2020).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature larger margins of error due to small sample size in some of the racial categories. Populations from some racial and ethnic minority groups also have lower average incomes and are more likely to have income below the official poverty level when compared to the total population. Such income levels are correlated with a greater share of renter households and impact the types of housing these populations consume, as discussed in further detail below. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY An estimated 8%of the population of Lake Oswego, or 3,140 people, report having some form of disability.This is lower than the statewide rate of 14%and the Clackamas County rate of 12%of people with a disability.(The Census reports these statistics for the"non-institutionalized population.") The following figure presents Census estimates of the types of disability reported among Lake Oswego residents. Any type of disability impacts the type of housing that may be appropriate for a resident,but those with the greatest impact on needed unit type are generally an ambulatory,self-care, or independent living disability.Those with an ambulatory disability often need units with expanded access for a wheelchair,walker, or scooter.Those with self- care or independent living disabilities may require additional safety precautions around the home to protect a resident who cannot always be directly monitored. FIGURE 2.9: LAKE OSWEGO SHARE OF THE POPULATION WITH DISABILITY,BY TYPE Share of Population Population with a disability 7.8% Hearing difficulty 2.4% Vision difficulty 1.7% Cognitive difficulty 2.7% Ambulatory difficulty 2.9% Self-care difficulty 1.1% Independent living difficulty 2.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) FIGURE 2.10:LAKE OSWEGO POPULATION WITH A DISABILITY,BY AGE Share of Population with Disability by Age Total population ■ 7.8% Under 18 years . 2.0% 18 to 64 years 5.8% 65 years and over 19.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Older residents are more likely to report a disability, including nearly 20%of those over 65 years. Of those aged 18 to 64 years, 6% of the local population reports a disability, and 2% of children. Because Census data tends to undercount the homeless and other vulnerable populations, there are likely more disabled residents in Lake Oswego than reflected in these data. I. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.11: INCOME TRENDS,2000-2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 • Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500,and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. • Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. • Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. FIGURE 2.12: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to$99,999 11% $50,000 to$74,999 11% $35,000 to$49,999 6% $25,000 to$34,999 4% $15,000 to$24,999 4% $10,000 to$14,999 2% Less than$10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables:S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) Figure 2.12 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k(27%). • 41%of households earn less than $100,000. • Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 J. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%, and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: ■ The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups,but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. ■ For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. ■ Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.13:POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college, associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database. These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these,an estimated 2,250 or 10%,are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities ▪Census Tables:S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates);Methodology The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now, a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.14: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Met:rger f Milwaukie Hosp' n,u Creek State `43 Milwaukie �, Natural AreaO M TDunthorpe 4r�i t 49E) lard Oswego 20,900 2,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere in Lake Oswego ` work elsewhere ! I ryant •riding ij Durham .1�� ritage Centeridi 90% / 10% 12% / 88% Jennie ■ MAKYLHL'i- i n ` River Grove .ualatin © Stafford Legacy Meridian Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide(63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census.Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16%of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom 27% 2°% Studio 6% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes,which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% •Owner 80% Rental 59% E 60% 0 E' 40% 20% 18% 0 13% 0 1� 6% 0% 5/0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0/ Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% 23% 23% Renter 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% o 7% 7/0 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% o5 �0005 y�0) �y���5 ��5 y�o5 o5 o5 of 3c) Year Housing Unit Built ti SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units,older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others,and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30%of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households O 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% 60% 51% U, von 40% =• 20% 12% 16% 2• 0% .2 Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs, including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent' for local renter households only. This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. °The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)."Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% 25% 22% 0 ✓ 20% • 15% 14% • 10% 7% co 5/ � ■ 0% ,O ,Co ,co ,co otcc' 0 y O °A0 of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents.The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families. Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds, as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18),and 26 youth (aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender, 60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities, including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. 6 HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act, who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources:Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%. This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home(tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2: ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007,B25106, B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be$400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate, but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term.The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference,or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% 59% Rental E 60% 0 v cp 40% 18% 20% 10% 0 13% - 6/ 0% 5% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032, B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY,ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032, B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 6,000 •Est.Owner Households E 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level - 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 2,000 1,000 , xt 0 M •■ . •. ■ c� to p O, 0 0. O C At' tc) '1, C 0 0tzy LS tz zz z ry t?' t?' O U 0 ' L a 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0r O O O O �0 O O OO O O55 h � c3, 1 0 O'1ti q 'z'' 4t 0 1, � 'ti t t Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 •Est.Renter Households v, Y E1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level N 1,000 v UI 7 "5 500 I 0 5ra 000 O00 O00 O00 O00 000 000 000 ti ti ti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The home value and rent segments which show a "surplus"in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around those levels.These levels will be too costly for some(i.e.require more than 30%in gross income)or"too affordable" for others(i.e.they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose). In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing.There is a need for more rental units at lower rent levels(<$900/mo.). HOME SALE PRICES It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively low housing costs.This indicates that one owner household is living in a"lower value"unit. It does not indicate that units at this price point are available on the current market. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current achievable market prices. For this reason,many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant. For reference,this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the market(Figure 4.7). • The median sale price was$860,000. • The average (mean)sale price was$1,075,000. • The average price per square foot was$430/s.f. • The median square footage was 2,300 s.f. FIGURE 4.7: LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES(12 MONTHS) Home Sales by Unit Type Home Sales by Price Level $900,000+ 319 $800,000-$899,000 66 20% $700,000-$799,000 67 $600,000-$699,000 56 8% $500,000-$599,000 ■ 39 0%0 72% $400,000-$499,000 . 31 $300,000-$399,000 . 47 $200,000-$299,000 ■ 43 $100,000-$199,000 3 Detached Home Manuf. Home <$100,000 0 Attached Home Condo 0 100 200 300 400 Sources: RMLS,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • 48%of sales were priced above$900,000. • 34%of sales were priced between$500,000 and $899,000. • Only 18%of sales were priced at less than$500,000. • Only 7%of sales were priced below$300,000. Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75%of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least$600,000. Homes in this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the median household income of$123,000. Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the current for-sale market(75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households. The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following section. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS- 2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The projected future(20-year) housing profile(Figure 5.1)in the study area is based on the current housing profile (2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate. The projected future growth is the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region. This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1%per year.' FIGURE 5.1: FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE(2043),LAKE OSWEGO PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023-2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1.7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied Units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0% Stabilized vacancy assumption Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Metro,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC *Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population,household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1 The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons,meaning more smaller households to house the same population. (The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.) 7 The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis. To comply with state rules,the analysis relies on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC)and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast.The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state. The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1%between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05%per year.Many community members in Lake Oswego,including members of the project Task Force,as well as members of the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected growth rates,but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict,the deficit of land available to accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume remaining buildable land more quickly,potentially running out of buildable land within several years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six years;thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population forecast,if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends.It will be important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to continue to monitor actual growth patterns,as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected,the City will need to identify and implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near term. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND(2043) The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step. Therefore,the need identified below is the total need for actual households in occupied units(19,298). The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of each.The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households. The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing costs,from 30%for low income households down to 20%for the highest income households. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%,with 10% down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the future, these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand. Income levels and price levels are presented in 2023 dollars. Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand(current and new households,without vacancy) in 2043. FIGURE 5.2: PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND(2043),LAKE OSWEGO Ownership #of Price Range Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $ok-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% Extremely <30%MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low <50%MFI $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% Income $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80%MEI $350k-$440k 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental #of Rent Level Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $0-$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% Extremely <30%MFI $400-$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% Low Income $700-$900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50%MEI $900-$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% Income $1300-$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80%MEI $1800-$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 %of All: 30.3% 19,298 Sources: Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next 20 years to under 70%from 71%. COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above(Figure 5.2)was compared to the current housing inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and price range(Figure 5.3). This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units. An average vacancy rate of 5%is assumed for the purpose of this analysis. FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS(2043),LAKE OSWEGO OWNERSHIP HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: 2-unit Detached Attached plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0% Percentage: 69.2% 12.9% 3.1% 5.6% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0% Percentage: 5.5% 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: 2-unit Detached Attached plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% Sources: PSU,City of Lake Oswego,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043. • Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be rental units.This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than ownership units. • There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges($300k to$600k). • The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points. Market rents are currently clustered in the $1,300 to$2,200 range in current dollars. Therefore, most units are to be found in this range. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 ■ There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to maintain housing costs that are affordable(see more detail below). Needed Unit Types The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership households over the next 20 years. However,an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers. ■ 39% of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is projected to be some form of attached housing. ■ Single attached units(townhomes on individual lots)are projected to meet roughly 11%of future need. These are defined as units on separate tax lots,attached by a wall but separately metered,the most common example being townhome units. ■ Duplex,triplex,and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16%of the total need, reflecting new state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement unit.) ■ 34%of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+attached units. ■ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of some low-income households for both ownership and rental. ■ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are projected to be attached forms. ■ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings, with 62% projected in rental properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes. Group Housing Needs:There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population growth is modest. In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego's group housing population lives in nursing facilities. NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment,based on the projected demographics of new households to the market area.The needed affordability levels presented here are based on current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels. Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of "low income" used to set rent and income limits for various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income in Clackamas County of$106k in 2022, based on a family of four,while the median income in Lake Oswego was a higher$123k. For this analysis,the estimated Median Family Income(MFI)for a family of four($106k)was adjusted to match the average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the city average. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 29 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable unit or voucher to find housing affordability.Those at 60%to 100%MFI may find housing in older and substandard market rate rentals, manufactured homes,and middle housing types. FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Household Income Segment Income Level Owner Renter Total Share Common Housing Product (Rounded) Units Units Government-subsidized;Voucher; Extremely Low Inc. <30%MR <$27,500 56 149 205 10% Shelter;Transitional Aging/substandard rentals; Very Low Income 30%-60%MFI $27.5k-$55k 95 221 317 16% Government-subsidized;Voucher; Manufactured homes Aging apartments;Government- Low Income 60%-80%MFI $55k-$73k 71 120 190 10% subsidized; Plexes;Aging single- detached;Small homes Single-detached homes; Middle Income 80%-120%MFI $73k-$110k 134 172 306 16% Townhomes; Condominiums; Newer apartments Single-detached homes; Upper Income >120%MFI >$110,000 669 282 951 48% Townhomes; Condominiums; New apartments TOTAL: 1,024 944 1,968 100% Sources: HUD,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current need for more affordable units. For all households,current and new,to pay 30%or less of their income towards housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to become less expensive to meet the needs of current households. • There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum ($900 and less). • The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes, condos, and small detached homes,often on smaller lots. Subsidized Affordability Housing Need As alluded to in Figure 5.4,some low-income households,and particularly the lowest income households,typically need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and other household spending needs. Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043.The table uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common affordability level for tax credit properties. • There is an existing and on-going need at these levels, based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas County. An estimated 12%of households qualify as at least"low income"or lower on the income scale,while CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 30 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 9% of households qualify as "extremely low income". (Again, this is based on the official state measure of Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs, which is relatively high.) FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT Low INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Current Need(2022) Future Need(2043) NEW Need(20-Year) Affordablilty Level Income Level* #of Units %of All #of Units %of All #of Units %of All Extremely Low Inc. <_30%MFI <_ $26,800 1,492 9% 1,697 9% 205 10% Very Low Income 30%-50%MFI <_ $44,700 1,560 9% 1,771 9% 212 11% Low Income 50%-80%MEI < $71,600 2,075 12% 2,370 12% 295 15% TOTAL: s 80%MFI s $71,600 5,127 29% 5,839 30% 712 36% Tax Credit <60%MEI < $53,700 3,962 23% 4,483 23% 521 26% Sources: OHCS,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,HUD *Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg.Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons. ■ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income households and many other low-income households at "affordable" housing cost levels. Often the lowest income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are more likely to serve those earning 50%to 60%of MFI. Housing Need for People Experiencing Homelessness:Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to maintain a fairly stable number of unhoused individuals and households over this period. Unhoused individuals and families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances,ranging from emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-income population shown in prior figures. Agricultural Worker Housing:There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the planning period. However,this population may also be served by other available affordable units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 31 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED (2043) & LAND SUPPLY This section summarizes the results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). The BLI is presented in detail in an accompanying memo to this report. The BLI was conducted for land within the city limits, assessing vacant and partially vacant lands based on residential zoning, and environmental and other constraints that may impact development. The following table (Figure 6.1) presents the estimated new unit capacity of the buildable lands identified in the City of Lake Oswego and within the UGB. Residential zones, as well as mixed-use zones that can accommodate some residential uses, were included in the inventory, and are broken into broad categories based on housing density. FIGURE 6.1: ESTIMATED BUILDABLE LANDS CAPACITY BY ACREAGE AND NO.OF UNITS(2023) ACRES ACREAGE Land Type Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Acres Area(Acres) Area(Acres) Acres Capacity Residential 3,530 802 2,784 174 705 Mixed Use 490 96 397 10 146 Non-Residential 172 21 150 - - Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - - Acres Total: 7,339 2,193 5,230 185 851 UNITS UNIT TYPE Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Unit Housing Type Units Units Units Capacity Residential 648 39 17 705 Mixed Use 5 23 118 146 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Vacant and Partially Vacant Total: 653 62 135 851 Additional Capacity Approved Developments 2 23 341 366 Additional Middle Housing Infill - 110 - 110 TOTAL HOUSING UNIT CAPACITY: 655 195 476 1,327 Source: MIG • There is a total estimated remaining capacity of 1,327 units of different types within the study area. • The estimated remaining capacity for low density housing units remains the greatest share at capacity for 655 units,or 49%of the total. • There is a total estimated capacity for 195 middle housing units, including future infill in low density zones. This is roughly 15%of the total unit capacity. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 32 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • There is a total estimated capacity for 476 housing units in higher density multi-dwelling properties. This is roughly 36%of the total unit capacity. • 28%of the total capacity(366 units) is found in units already approved for development as of the time of this analysis.Additional infill opportunities identified on large-lot residential and some commercial lands account for an estimated 8%of capacity. See the attached Appendix for full Buildable Land Inventory details and methodology. The following table summarizes the forecasted future unit need for Lake Oswego. These are the summarized results from Section V of this report, presented here for reference. FIGURE 6.2: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED FUTURE UNIT NEED(2043) TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% New Units Needed Single Detached Homes 760 ar Townhomes 220 2 -4 Plex Units 309 to 5 or More Units 677 Manufactured Homes 3 O O O O O O 00 cb 00 Housing Units Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Census,Johnson Economics Comparison of Housing Need and Capacity There is a total forecasted need for nearly 2,000 units over the next 20 years based on the forecasted growth rate. This is greater than the estimated total capacity of 1,327 units. Figure 6.3 below presents a comparison of the BLI capacity for new housing units, compared to the estimate for new unit need by 2043. It breaks down need by general zoning category(LDR, MDR, HDR). • The projected demand for low-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 192 units,or the equivalent of 38 acres of low density residential land. • The results find a deficit for medium-density housing of 249 units,or 31 acres. • The projected demand for high-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 201 units,or the equivalent of 17 acres of high density residential land. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 33 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • These findings assume that under newly adopted state rules,3%of available buildable parcels in the LDR zone will be used for the various types of attached units(single-family attached townhomes, duplex—fourplex). FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate (0.05%) Zone& Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached & plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics • These findings point to a need for additional residential land in a range of zones over the 20-year planning period. Available inventory may meet an estimated 67% of total housing needs over the first half of the planning period, but a deficit is projected in the long run. • A range of potential housing policies and strategies will be considered in future development of a Housing Production Strategy by the City, including the ability of future plan areas to meet the need for different types of housing during the 20-year planning period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 34 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 APPENDIX A: LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY Methodology and Results I July 18, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA)for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification.This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development. This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation, then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits.' 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGR Appendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf 2 A prior version of this Buildable Lands Inventory included unannexed land outside of the Lake Oswego City Limits which has a City Comprehensive Plan designation.This land has been removed from the study area following APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 35 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 1.Study Area Map s SW STEPHENSON ST TF9� y `/// lif F,9 c.cR5' <FSS / R PKwY NHS �-�, �` ._ FAO J'- - .-4.-1p00 S� • ,, 3 � V � ,._f „k7:4, e \o k MELROSE ST �. , '5- I CO UNTRy C(UB RD R �� / 21L J D KRUSE WAY 0Q 40 A 4VE "' 3I MEADOWS RD , Q, l z oN, 'SW BONR/ p ,�EA Q- 4G .' t� 8 2 ZEI s l�0 0 a o s d 0 . - .,.,.,/,' . ‘ > j O� �EV.I gVV D. % PJ ' ' in '111VpPE��p�EJ c,NOREg(VD �cEV �•� �)155C4:1, ' �i SO�d` cc 0 OHO R/G GREENTREEP � p� FRi/I s_j OJT,OOK09 S- BERGIS,RD �, �$3 JC'E WAY , y-</ <,0 0 O 0 cc ,r z o O �! S'P ae =' m \\,OS PD�S OSF O�VA E Or�z CHILDS RD �� MON/. F n 90 (U �� of % Mlles-�- �, `PREGOt/ 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Study Area !r`: Study Area Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other. Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning discussion with the City's Housing Production Strategy Task Force and Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)staff. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 36 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations R-15 To provide lands for single-family residential development with Residential Low R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential R 5 development with densities ranging from seven to eight dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities R-DD Zone and supports the economic feasibility of new construction and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved Residential and integrated with new development. Medium Density The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, R-6 and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 37 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Residential High R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per Density R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Highway retail uses which require access to a market area larger than Commercial(HC) the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity.Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that Mixed Use (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 38 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area.Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 39 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations Portlan-, _..a 5 College-5y. Tryon Creek I State Natural t Lt41 I Alt - Ci r.�' --' __ - _ Milwaukle a ', �t" 4, Heights Tigard pp '� , u + R-io-ri ! .,,,, , , ...:, HC R-5 ill III FII ,• R-6 Oak Grove [•I+ v R-ro R � 1 - �-1:11�a DEC 1 _ �RF.D -- F lip Bonita E SNt Ha i la RO _ i 1 , ,,PNA i ., •e eqo Durham Ig. • .0446 1 • ��. Rio .�R 7 5 �J �/ '- I4-iff, Concord R/.c / -r PF D •/ _-1 R.7.5 R-�5 "-Jk Park PNA Durham o r! R,no _'[• 'c tr, III ..y Club FOP R"i5 Jer 1. I R"'S Err,,NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Ern,HERE, Tualatin Rivergrove PNA- Gamin,SafeGraph,GgoTechnologies.Inc.METUNASA USGS.Bureau of land Management.EPA,MPS, USDA Mary S.You no Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts Legend Q l are Oswego O HC -PF O R-6 LAYER FT I T PNA =R•7.5 O CI =IP _7 R-0 0 ROD O Cl/OC C-7 MC -R-10 ®R'W O CR&D U NC LJ R-15 O WLG OC O EC =NC/R-0 O R-2 O WIG R-2.5 O EC/R-0 O OC O R-3 10 WLG RMU 0 0.25 0.5 1 EL GC O OC/R-3 EL R-5 1 = 1 Mlles APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 40 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations 1 PortianU ��" 1 Community G.I 0 224] v College-Sylva Ry-5 - °i MI SF. s n 1 ' --- R-3' - _ •fl tr —Ar S I — — ED R7.5 /J u }� ily d t .- e��1 PNA Milwaukfe ner'PF � � •R.5 ei Heights Tigard r_'!r /y aJ� pi-R ao trvii , pp rq y 'y uc /, R o�I _ R-6 f/ Oak Grove Il 5 1r# V , 0 i 1 MC—_I - ,OC/R-; R-ta /rD EC .� R&D Bonita 1 R•ao R-7.5 % T. 11`®PNA R�5 4f�PNA u, F SP ir�PNA I: R r 'r i a o '- 1 �• g' R-7 S r j SW Durham Rd I �� R le -a° pt J Concord R S f P •I '�. Ri5 Feld � 4CI Look Park .1 . lrnllry frail Durham IP �—� R-io R-ao F PF R Idldtin R-ic J — r� ■I UL: tr. rtry Club ' P P. - Jer PNA 1 Esri.NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, Tualatin 1,1 Rivergrove - 0 Gannon,SafeGraph,GerTechnologies,Inc,METI/NASA,USGS,Bureau of Land Management,EPA,MPS, I — J' USDA „ Mary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 Lake Oswego 0 HC =PNA =R.7.5 LAYER O IP ®R-0 =R-W CI C MC C R-I0 =I SP -CR&D O NC O R-15 O WLG OC O EC -NC/R-0 =R-2 =WIG R-2.5 MZI EC/R-0 O OC O R-3 O WIG RMU 0 FMU O OC/11-3 O R-5 =<all other values> 0 0.25 0.5 1 =GC =PF ER-6 Mlles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows.This land is not included in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 41 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County,State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University,which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW As noted above, properties in this category are generally not included in the inventory. However, some specific parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 42 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification v..niuyc — r _ q ` .p,, ri f , _ 1 .--- .F.--.., , , . al 1 iradi) _ }��I 1......72. A' hir....� �^ u,: i17_ 1' Jy 'mil �% y . ...‘.,, f�y !'r �✓ �� V � '�� L�__11 Bath 6 °1''�ift • I lor% � Oak Gro 'I' ►►111►1►1 t�-, , J"11 >�►►11►1111� ___ IPT �` = ��dt.Rd '_ P al.' aryg,\ � � 1;V!il It'77 rin 111411 IlL 1) IF• - t),...4::: gm i' N 'If, II' la, \t. di .,i 1 �� �// ,,_iiii%r•_■ , , ,� 114.01/(r — is �� .==ter riAilelroffili Arpg,.ill 4. ._ om AI 11; -1.71 tewm-'17.1 , 1• 0" ' .1. . •r*L-1 Imr.- , ' '_ ire maw ma �V ii4 te. _ owl'ii _ _ '' ,vx E s 1 lillrrgrove ��__ ' .1 L 1 I ' U �� O IV 1 Miles ' C °REGOc' 0 d.25 0.5 1 �4 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type ® Study Area Land Type Residential Mixed Use Non-Residential Public/Other APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 43 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies.Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated,while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts, which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 44 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development s TF SW STEPHENSON ST P� , 1!41 SS NF.S���� +-FR 00 1 1 zo �0 1 1 1 ,- ( �f __,,...:,,,,ZE.St- ---',-, ''' .., , (IIIW)ir% ''a re' g*g.-ms-i....d:Aii ' i j a g' a : ‘ r w�` 1 I. ram KRUSE WAY�°_..O 5y. . 2�„ :3 ��y „ •yl• A AV y .. % D MEADOWS RD Q -� �I i" i :Inn.._ant 1111°•.,... 16 �.�`�..h, 432,4: E z 1 1 , 44 . C 4.e�1'~1 I ine �1VA," OUNTA7 ; i i ill[. 0�w-..SW BONITA-RD��'r ��CAE, Q � �' •1011 i1r/�� BEVD 414:�: �" -r / w , t A.). 1 -, ,;) ,,,,,„„,.- -4,AS.I.,-;., ,,-1...!'f.T...s.1. 1 -- Ir1 Illat PQ� PKEN E� P < ` .� I `ORE Jl 11 G ESN B VD O • V7, 11 pit 11 4 , S a r ; �._ .6 4 Ill • o GREENTREE P 2 , ro' FR• L , A _„;-.,„ S BERG, . .., cO , „.. iysA / , ,„,OOKD IS,RD 0 l '-.)7.74 // a,III I I I ,kcE Av r:_% el, III • �o i / I O —fr 1 1 ►-fl — 1 5 Q `rq• €ilb 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints ® Study Area Major Roads Taxlots Greenway Mgmt. - Overlay District Slopes>25% FEMA Floodplain Sensitive Lands Overlay Habitat Benefit Areas (HBA) Resource Conservation Areas (RC) Resource Protection Areas(RP) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 45 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 Mixed Use 490 96 397 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Publicly Owned/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Tax assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value; • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces; • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information; • Review of recent aerial imagery; and • Discussion and review with City staff and the Housing Production Strategy (HPS)Task Force. Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted. Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 46 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 • Partially Vacant. This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones,this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with a building value below$200,000,% acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix(see Error! Reference source not found.3) are a pplied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site. Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus Zone. Campus Research & 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of residential/non- (FMU) residential mix General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 47 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots, total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type.A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 175 Mixed Use 490 96 397 14 Non-Residential 172 21 150 _ Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 189 APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 48 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land v 5QPr,J 7A„,a.,/`, • �ri— , - � - 1 r�SW STEPHENSON ST - Phi •1',} �',�. { y s I t � oA ; ., i_ 1 � ''1 It U. _ ! 11' , _ �• • rr • 1 -, 4-'"ROSE STw - • -•� - rrI ,, ` ii. r or `2I�'1 f`e -� ;B R`D�.: _.Z'�_ fah -- - - �� KR'USE WAYS J Qa / A AVE_ i E 1 MEADOWS RD c Y -�` - -•. - "' ,. i �� -a 'l. _ z SW'BONITA RD� y CAPS QG 1..�4, oOUNTAIA g(Vu� �. - �•1 -IC: �fl A I 2 ZFI p ,r \S ,/ ' 4 p z i I �1!hTit - A 0 - - - >o -tee i- 4`\> ei j1 ee Ea Mc� - a- , P� i` ,eSHORE}(Vp .1 w � N O �\ ;,1 III ! r �- S 5 1 I . + S� ORL �_, 'r o-. GREENTREE RD-- � _ f 0`� ,FR P' i �0 3 ;..- oar_ �� Pa V 1.7 i II Q ` Y `^„ J���pOK--aqt S BERGIS/RD = ; �- , ,,,. , -- • . . . : !1��� I a •1' o �. :. �2. ... a lip C _ • t Q s9 .L' �A F A ► - _` 1�• ,i'1 ! m w w. '��OS BDh�i' _ OSFMO i �0 �,r�;'"1 ^- CHI LDS RD ' v2' �11 tiT F' O I _ y . ./90 U —� o EG Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status = Constraints Development Status Developed Partially Vacant Vacant ® Study Area APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 49 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones.This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density and Housing Mix Table 4 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis.The proportion of units expected to be developed as Single Family Detached, Middle Housing, and Multi-Family are also shown. Table 4. Unit Density and Mix Assumptions Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net DU/AC net 95% 5% R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area.4.3 4.3 du/ac net du/ac net. 95% 5% - R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 5.8 du/ac du/ac net 95% 5% - Residential-Medium Density Zones R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, —8 du/ac per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for 90% 5% 5% single-family. 1,500 for townhouse. R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac "'8 du/ac theoretically possible. 95% 5% - R-6 First Addition —7 du/ac Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for 95% 5% - Single-Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 50 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 —12 du/ac 70% 10% 20% min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac).Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-W "'12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% Mixed Use Zones West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes —5 du/ac Grove "R-5 density or greater" Residential - 50% 50% Mixed Use (WLG RMU) West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes 35 du/ac expected in Grove Office- "R-5 density or greater" BFR Staging Site, 20%- 0 Commercial 80% nothing in other areas (WLG OC) Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes Generally applies to Institutional "R-5 density or greater." Marylhurst University, o (CI) Must have commercial on which is treated - - 100% ground floor. separately. Campus 54 du/ac for projects Research& that include residential Table 50.03.002-2 notes ("30%of the district, as - - 100% Development o0 (CR&D) "R-5 density or greater" above) based on LU 19- 0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes —56 du/ac Commercial "R-5 density or greater." o (EC) Must have commercial on - - 100% ground floor. Foothills Table 50.03.002-2 notes —56 du/ac Mixed Use "R-5 density or greater" - - 100% (FMU) General Table 50.03.002-2 notes "'27 du/ac based on Commercial "R-5 density or greater." Mercantile project (LU (GC) Must have commercial on 18-0026) ground floor. Residential - 25% 75% not allowed "In the GC- zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road." Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes 8 du/ac (or R-5 density) Commercial "R-5 density or greater" for the 10%that may - - 100% (HC) develop as residential APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 51 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes 67 du/ac for the 50% Commercial "R-5 density or greater." that may develop as o 0 (NC) Must have commercial on residential (based on LU - 50/ 50/ ground floor. 07-0031) Office Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes 21 du/ac for the 50% (OC) "R-5 density or greater" that may develop as residential (based on - - 100% Galewood Commons Apartments) Summary of Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area, and Table 6 shows the breakdown of capacity by zoning designation. Land with a known development approval has been removed and is accounted for in a later step. Table 5. Capacity of Residential and Mixed Use Land Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Residential 174 705 Mixed Use 10 146 Non-Residential - - Public/Other - - Total 185 851 Table 6. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Land Type Unit Capacity Residential Land 705 Mixed Use Land 146 EC/R-0 5 CR&D 14 R-0 2 EC 67 R-10 241 GC 12 R-10 Comp Plan 14 NC 23 R-15 131 NC/R-0 9 R-3 28 OC/R-3 5 R-5 116 R-0 8 R-7.5 149 WLG-OC 7 R-7.5 Comp Plan 3 WLG-R RMU 1 R-DD 12 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 3 Total Capacity: 851 Units APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 52 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 7.Mix of Unit Capacity on Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Unit Capacity Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Units Units Units Residential 705 648 39 17 Mixed Use 146 5 23 118 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Total 851 653 62 136 Additional Capacity: In addition to the capacity listed above,the following categories of additional residential unit capacity have been identified.These are listed in Table 7, along with the expected mix of housing units. • Approved Development. Several parcels have land use approvals and/or are actively undergoing development. Where information about the unit capacity of these approvals is known,that information is used as future capacity (rather than an average assumption based on the zoning designation).These approvals are listed in Table 8. • Additional Middle Housing Capacity: Due to the City's middle housing legislation, most single family lots can be converted to duplexes or other middle housing types.The number of new units expected to be created through this process in the planning horizon is estimated at 1.5%of developed lots with single-detached dwellings outside of PUDs/easements.This totals 110 Units'. • Redevelopment of Commercial Land and Town Centers:An initial "strike price" analysis'found very few properties that appear to be good candidates for redevelopment at$30/sf. Value per square foot for many properties along Kruse Way and in Town Centers is generally$50/sf or greater.There may be some opportunity to utilize parking areas for new residential uses, depending on the City's development code and many other factors,though additional commercial infill is also a possibility. For the purposes of this BLI, no redevelopment capacity is assumed. 3 A previous version of this analysis assumed 3%of all single detached units, regardless of whether they were located in a PUD. Feedback from stakeholders and DLCD was that this infill assumption seemed high and was unrealistic due to the prevalence of CC&Rs in Lake Oswego. '"Strike Price" is a measure of land and building value per square foot at which a developer is assumed to be able to profitably redevelop a piece of property.The 2018 Metro BLI used a strike price of$12/sf for suburban jurisdictions—this analysis examine a more aggressive$30/sf and still found very few candidates for redevelopment. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 53 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 8. Parcels with Approved Development and Assumed Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Multi- Land Type Taxlot(s) Family Capacity Units Housing Units Units 21E18AB00400 Habitat for Humanity 21E18AB00300 Townhomes 21E18AB00200 23 0 23 0 [Link] 21E18AB00100 21E18AA00400 5400 Meadows [Link] 21E07BA00900 160 0 0 160 21E08AB02100 Twin Fir Road 2 2 0 0 21E08AB02000 The Boulder 21E07DD02300 [Link] 21E07DD02500 11 0 0 11 21E14DB02900 21E14 00300 21E14 00400 21E14 00401 21E14 00402 Marylhurst University 21E14 00403 170 0 0 170 21E14 00404 21E14 90000 21E14 900A1 21E14 900B2 Total 366 2 23 341 Table 9.Summary of Unit Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Capacity Units Units Units Vacant& Partially 851 653 62 136 Vacant Land Approved 366 2 23 341 Developments Additional Middle 110 - 110 - Housing Infill Total 1,327 655 195 477 Next Steps This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. It forms part of the factual basis for City policies to address any deficiencies in unit capacity. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 54 AN 25-0006 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 11 .2 o�� E 0 COUNCIL REPORT li4 pi4.. V —� 0 OD EGO� Subject: Ordinance 2970, Annexing properties and the public right-of-way at 13092 Amber Place (AN 25-0007) Report Date: September 17, 2025 Staff Member: Paul Espe, Associate Planner Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Department: Planning and Building Services Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑X Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑X Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: This annexation is being processed as a ❑ Council Direction public hearing (not expedited decision) under Metro ❑ Consent Agenda Code 3.09.050(A-D). Staff Recommendation: Enact Ordinance 2970. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to enact Ordinance 2970. Project/ Issue Relates To: Annexation of residential property to the city. Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable EXECUTIVE SUMMARY/BACKGROUND The proposed annexation is owner-initiated and will result in the addition of approximately 1.23 acres of residential land to the City. This Council Report describes the reasons for the annexation and provides basic background information. This annexation will result in property that will be zoned R-10 as designated in the Comprehensive Plan shown in Attachment A. The criteria for approving annexations and findings in support of this annexation are found in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 (Ordinance 2970) Owner/Applicant: Gerald Rowlett, Westlake Development Group Location/Size: East side of Amber Place, approximately 330 feet south of the intersection of Knaus Road and Amber Place/ 1.23 acres (53,579 square feet). Respect. Excellence. Trust. Servic 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 " ' 1823 78 I I Vic nity Map 0. 1814 I I 12977 13050 1801 Knaus Road NM ir I o co o I i �.,` a - I N., W — — — — - — 130611 � i I Proposed C 192R4 Q Ill Annexation (7 �_ 13084 I ■ ' I 1 I 71—419: 13286 l AKI OSWEGO T 13079 COUNTY x J' 13101 0 111 I as 13340 COUNTY LAKE OSWEGO 3 13233 13217 13214 as 13346 ll ji Y — .�� 132 I 1323 ft 3348 —1 i I, 13 --1 v, KIJAUS 13245 13240 — 1651 13258 ROAD 1640 Country Commons _ .' a 8 13,6U 13562 i--- �_� \ `� r cn L.,Existing Land Use: The westerly lot,Tax Map/Lot 21E04BA02600, contains a single-family dwelling (now vacant) that takes access from Amber Place. The easterly lot, Tax Map/Lot 21E04BA02500, is vacant. Neighborhood: Forest Highlands Neighborhood Purpose of Annexation: Owner initiated annexation to connect to city sewer and develop the property. (Future development of the properties is beyond the scope of this review). DISCUSSION Plan and Zone Designation:The subject properties are currently under Clackamas County's jurisdiction and zoned Low-Density Residential R-20. They are designated R-10, Medium Density Residential on the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map and will be zoned R-10, pursuant to LOC 50.01.004.5.a-c. Development Potential: Based on the size and shape of the parcels, the two parcels, combined, may be divided into approximately five lots. Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Statewide Goal 10 Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter Statewide Planning Goal 10 (and the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Goal in the City Comprehensive Plan) ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. Ak 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 units, the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries, and to provide greater certainty in the development process so as to reduce housing costs. Staff has provided findings (Exhibit A-1, Attachment B) that the proposed annexation and designation of City R-10 zoning are consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the Housing Needs Analysis (HNA). The proposal would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA, is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan, and therefore complies with Statewide Planning Goal 10: Housing. (See Attachment B for the complete findings under Goal 10). Sewer and Water Service: Sanitary sewer service is available from an 8-inch collection line in Amber Place that currently terminates near the south boundary of the site. The Engineering Staff has confirmed that this sewer main can provide public sanitary sewer service to these properties and any future development of the site. With development, a public sewer main extension would be required in Amber Place and the line would need to be extended far enough to serve the homes on this site, as well as future connections for 13079 and 13101 Amber Place across the street from the site. Any on-site work would involve decommissioning the existing septic tank (removal, or filling with sand or gravel). All work would be done by private contractors. Note: The Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards that would apply for the possible future land division, which will be prepared as a part of the preapplication conference for any future land division. Water is available from a 6-inch City water main located in Amber Place along the site frontage that can provide water service for future development. The nearest existing fire hydrant is located at the south boundary of this site along the east side of Amber Place. Individual private water services would be required at the time of future development, unless exempt. A new connection will be charged the applicable System Development Charge (SDC) when the individual service is made for a new home at the time of building permit issuance. Surface Water Management: Once the properties are annexed, the territory will be subject to the City's stormwater management regulations. Any new development will be subject to these provisions, which ensure that new development does not have an adverse effect on adjoining properties and does not overburden the City stormwater system. Service Districts: Upon annexation, the properties will, by operation of ORS 222.520, be withdrawn from the Lake Grove Fire District#57 (per July 2003 urban service agreement; no bonded debt) and the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District (no bonded debt) but will remain in the Lake Grove Park District (per July 2003 urban service agreement), and the Library District of Clackamas County (per 2009 County IGA). Transportation: The City's Transportation System Plan (TSP) implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Amber Place is a local street and is under the jurisdiction and permitting authority of Lake Oswego. The nearest mass transit service is Tri-Met bus line 78, which operates between downtown Lake Oswego and the Tigard and Beaverton Transit Centers. Service can be accessed at the intersection of Knaus and Country Club Roads. Respect. Excellence. Trust41 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 4 The draft findings provided in Attachment B of Exhibit A-1 conclude that the proposed annexation complies with all applicable State statutes and Metro code requirements. FISCAL IMPACT The estimated assessed value of the residential properties is $681,233. The estimated tax revenue after the parcels are annexed is $1,762. RECOMMENDATION Approve AN 25-0007 (Ordinance 2970). EXHIBITS A. Draft Ordinances AN 25-0007: A-1 Ordinance 2970 (Draft Annexation, 09/17/25) Attachment A: Map of Proposed Annexation, 09/16/25 Attachment B: Criteria, Findings, Conclusion, and Effective Date, 09/17/25 B. Minutes None. C. Staff Reports None. D. Graphics/Plans None. E. Written Materials E-1 Housing Needs Analysis 2023 (Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 10), 09/21/23 (due to size, use link below to view this exhibit) LINK TO PUBLIC RECORDS FOLDER FOR THIS CASE https://apps.lakeoswego.city/WebLink/Browse.aspx?id=3004073&repo=CityOfLakeOswego Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service. Ak 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO,OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY DRAFT: 09/17/2025 ORDINANCE 2970 AN ORDINANCE ANNEXING TO THE CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO TWO PARCELS, CONSISTING OF 1.23 ACRES AND THE PUBLIC RIGHT-OF-WAY AT 13092 AMBER PLACE; DECLARING CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO ZONING OF R-10, PURSUANT TO LOC 50.01.004.5(a-c); AND REMOVING THE TERRITORY FROM CERTAIN DISTRICTS (AN 25-0007). WHEREAS, annexation to the City of Lake Oswego of the territory shown in the map in Attachment "A" and described below, would constitute a contiguous boundary change under ORS 222.111, initiated by petition from the property owners as outlined in ORS 222.111(2); and, WHEREAS, the City has provided written notification of this annexation as required under ORS 222.120(3); and, WHEREAS, the City has received consent for the proposed annexation from all of the property owners and not less than 50 percent of the electors residing in the territory, as outlined in ORS 222.125; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Lake Grove Fire District #57 district boundaries and the district has no bonded debt, and pursuant to the July 2003 urban service agreement between the City and the district the territory should be withdrawn from the district, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), the territory shall be withdrawn from that district immediately upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, the territory lies within the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District boundaries and the district has no bonded debt, the City elects ORS 222.520(2)(b), and the territory shall be withdrawn from the district upon approval of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, LOC 50.01.004.5 specifies that, where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific Zoning Map designation to be placed on the territory annexed to the City, such a zoning designation shall automatically be imposed on the territory as of the effective date of the annexation; and, WHEREAS, this annexation is consistent with the Urbanization Chapter of the City of Lake Oswego's acknowledged Comprehensive Plan, Oregon Revised Statutes 222.111(2), 222.120 and 222.125 for boundary changes, and Metro Code Sections 3.09.030 (A-C), 3.09.040(A)(1-4) and 3.09.050. Ordinance 2970,AN 25-0007 (21E04BA02500& 21E04BA02600) PAGE 1 OF 3 DRAFT: 09/17/2025 Now,therefore,the City of Lake Oswego ordains as follows: Section 1. The real property described as follows is hereby annexed to the City of Lake Oswego: A tract of land located within the northwest quarter of Section 4,Township 2 South, Range 1 East of the Willamette Meridian, City of Lake Oswego, Clackamas County, Oregon; said tract of land being all of that property conveyed Charles E. Lemieux and Jeanne E. Lemieux,Trustees of the Lemieux Family Trust dated June 2, 2021, by Statutory Warranty Deed recorded June 7, 2021 in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Recording No. 2021-055401; said tract of land more particularly described as follows: Beginning at the southeast corner of said Lemieux tract of land, said point bears South 0°03'00" East, 330.11 feet from the southwest corner of Partition Plat No. 2011-030 (South 0°00"20" East, 330.11 feet as per said Partition Plat No. 2011-030), plat records of Clackamas County, said southeast corner of Lemieux tract being on the north line of a tract of land conveyed to C.C. Hofele and Flora Hofele by Warranty Deed recorded April 29, 1954 in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Book 481, Page 7, said north line being common to the north line of an easement being within said Hofele tract, said easement being reserved by the Oregon Iron and Steel Company, as described in said Book 481, Page 7; Thence along the northerly line of said tract, easement, and Mission Commons (Plat No.4498), plat records of Clackamas County, North 88°35'30 W, 284.00 feet to the northwest corner of Lot 1 of said Mission Commons (West, 284 feet along the north line of the easement reserved by the Oregon Iron and Steel Company as per Book 481, Page 7 [said north line described as North 88°35'30" West in said Book and Page], as described in Recording No. 2021-055401); Thence leaving said north lines, North 0°03'00" West, 188.15 feet to the southwest corner of a tract of land conveyed to Thomas D. & Maurine L. Holder, by Warranty Deed recorded October 17, 1951 in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Book 449, Page 650; Thence along the south line of said Holder tract, South 88°35'30'East, 284.00 feet to the northeast corner of said Lemieux tract (said point is southerly, 583.99 feet to the northerly line of Josiah Franklin Donation Land Claim No. 43; and North 88°35'30" West, 304.00 feet along said northerly line of the Josiah Franklin Donation Land Claim to the northeast corner of said Holder tract; and South 0°03' East, 326.85 feet from the north quarter corner of said Section 4, as described in Recording No. 2021- 055401); Thence leaving the north line of said Holder tract, South 0°03'00" East, 188.15 feet to the point of beginning. Together with a variable width strip of land also known as Amber Place, said strip of land being all of that property conveyed to "The Public", by Warranty Deed recorded August 4, 1966, in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Book 677, Page 696, said tract of land referred to herein as "The Public South";the strip of land thereof also being a portion of that property conveyed to "The Public", by Warranty Deed recorded June 20, 1958, in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Book 541, Page 673, said tract of land referred to herein as "The Public North"; said strip of land more particularly described as follows: Ordinance 2970,AN 25-0007 (21E04BA02500&21E04BA02600) PAGE 2 OF 3 DRAFT: 09/17/2025 Beginning at said northwest corner of Lot 1, Mission Commons; Thence westerly along the northerly lines of said Mission Commons and Partition Plat No. 2018-043, Plat records of Clackamas County, North 88°35'30" West, 36.15 feet to a point on the northerly line of said Partition Plat No. 2018-043; Thence leaving said northerly line, North 0°03'00" West along the westerly line of said "The Public South"tract, 45.00 feet, more or less,to the southerly line of said "The Public North"tract, said westerly line being parallel with and 36.15 feet westerly(when measured at right angles) of the easterly line of said "The Public South" tract; Thence leaving said parallel line, North 88°35'30" West along said southerly line of said "The Public North"tract, 13.85 feet; Thence leaving said southerly line, North 0°03'00" West along the westerly line of said "The Public North"tract, approximately 163.16 feet, more or less,to a point on the westerly extension of the southerly line of a tract of land conveyed to David William and Sylvia Jean Anderson, by Warranty Deed recorded January 28, 1987 in the Official Records of Clackamas County, as Recording No. 87-03890; Thence, leaving the westerly line of said "The Public North"tract, South 88°35'30" East along said westerly extension of the southerly line said Anderson tract, 50.00 feet to the southwest corner thereof, said point being on the easterly line of said "The Public North" tract; Thence leaving said westerly extension line, South 0°03'00" East along the easterly line of said "The Public North" and "The Public South"tracts, approximately 208.16 feet, more or less,to the point of beginning. The annexed territory is depicted on Attachment A. Section 2. The above Recitals are incorporated. Section 3. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be retained within these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Lake Grove Park District Clackamas County Library District Section 4. The annexed area lies within the following districts and shall be withdrawn from these districts upon the effective date of annexation: Lake Grove Fire District#57 Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District Section 5. In accordance with LOC 50.01.004.5, the City zoning designation of R-10, shall be applied to the subject properties on the effective date of annexation, as shown on Attachment A. Ordinance 2970,AN 25-0007 (21E04BA02500&21E04BA02600) PAGE 3 OF 3 DRAFT: 09/17/2025 Section 6. The City Council hereby adopts the findings of fact and conclusions set forth in Attachment B in support of this annexation ordinance. Section 7. Effective Dates: a. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C, this ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. b. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177, this annexation shall be effective upon the later of either: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State. Provided, however, that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any city, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Read by title only and enacted at the regular meeting of the City Council of the City of Lake Oswego held on the 7th day of October, 2025. AYES: NOES: ABSTAIN: ABSENT: Joseph M. Buck, Mayor Dated ATTEST: Laural Hawkins, City Recorder APPROVED AS TO FORM: Ellen Osoinach, City Attorney Ordinance 2970,AN 25-0007 (21E04BA02500&21E04BA02600) PAGE 4 OF 3 21E04BA02500 ' ' Annexation to the City of Lake Oswego 814 1 AN 25-0007/0rdinance 2970 12977 v iL, co Knaus Rd ---------- SW Knaus Rd -------- GJ W co C 1 o I hc) CD °) , J I 13062 o 0 13124 \ t s— ! IV E - - ------- - - ---- 13136 -, R-15 Q 13061 ;13080 i • �___ 13084 ' ------------- ; 13201 • 13079 ---`L TL/2600 TL/2500 R-10 13101 13233 13217 13214 1 — 13236 13237 13305 a_ CTI al KNAUS 13245 1651 E 13258 ROAD 1640 Country Commons ---i--_______1 _i _1 CJ1 o Attachment A �� Tax Lot IDs: 21E04BA02500 & 21E04BA02600 City of Lake Oswego: COMPREHENSIVE PLAN = R-10, Residential Low Density •. Ar ZONING = R-10, Residential Low Density Clackamas County: N .� ZONING = R-20, Urban Residential Low Density 1111 ET] City Limits Property 0 100 200 300 400 Feet ATTACHMENT B Criteria, Findings,Conclusion,and Effective Date APPLICABLE CRITERIA: A. Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation; Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. 2. ORS 222.120 Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing; Ordinance Subject to Referendum. 3. ORS 222.125 -Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. B. Metro Code. 1. 3.09.030 (A-C) Notice Requirements 2. 3.09.040(A)(1-4) Requirements for Petitions. 3. 3.09.050 Hearing and Decision Requirements for Decisions Other Than Expedited Decisions C. Comprehensive Plan - Urbanization Chapter 1. Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services." 2. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City Residents." 3. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve the subject property or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer, commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." 4. Policy D-3: "Enter into and maintain an Urban Growth Management Agreement with Clackamas County for lands within the Urban Services Boundary to "Promote orderly annexation of territory." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) Policy B-1: "Provide and maintain zoning and development regulations that allow the opportunity to develop an adequate supply and variety of housing types, and that accommodate the needs of existing and future Lake Oswego Residents." E. OAR 660-008-0010-Allocation of Buildable Land FINDINGS: A. Oregon Revised Statutes(ORS), Boundary Changes; Mergers and Consolidations. 1. ORS 222.111(2)Authority and Procedure for Annexation Specifying Tax Rate in Annexed Territory. ORS 222.111(2) provides that a proposal for annexation of territory to a City may be initiated by the legislative body of the City, on its own motion, or by a petition to the legislative body of the City by owners of real property in the territory to be annexed.The owner of these properties has petitioned the City for this annexation.The proposed annexation complies with this statute. 2. ORS 222.120 Procedure for Annexation Without Election; Hearing;Ordinance Subject to Referendum. ORS 222.120 states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation to the electors of the city for their approval or rejection if the legislative body provides for a duly noticed public hearing before the legislative body Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 1 OF 10 at which time the electors of the City may appear and be heard on the question of annexation. The City has provided written notification of this annexation by publishing a notice once each week for two consecutive weeks prior to the day of the hearing in a newspaper of general circulation in the city and posted the notice of public hearing in four public places in the City as required under ORS 222.120(3).The notice was published in the Lake Oswego Review and was posted at the City Hall, the Adult Community Center, Operations Center and the City Library. A notice was also posted on the site on September 17, 2025.The notice contained information about the affected territory,time and place of the public hearing and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report.The annexation notification and review procedures comply with this statute. 3. ORS 222.125-Annexation by Consent of All Owners of Land and Majority of Electors; Proclamation of Annexation. ORS 222.125 states that an election need not be held on the question of annexation within the area proposed to be annexed if all of the owners of land in the territory and not less than 50 percent of the electors, if any, residing in the territory consent in writing to the annexation. The westerly property(TL 2600) is occupied by a single-family dwelling that is vacant. The easterly property is also vacant. The property owners who are also electors have consented to the annexation. The proposed annexation complies with this statute. B. Metro Code 1 3.09.030—Notice Requirements A. The notice requirements apply to all boundary change decisions by a reviewing entity except expedited decisions made pursuant to MC 3.09.045.These requirements apply in addition to, and do not supersede applicable requirements of ORS Chapters 197, 198, 221 and 222 and any city or county charter provision on boundary changes. B. Within 45 days after a reviewing entity determines that a petition is complete,the entity shall set a time for deliberations on a boundary change. The reviewing entity shall give notice of its proposed deliberations by mailing notice to all necessary parties', by weatherproof posting of notice in the general vicinity of the affected territory and by publishing notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the affected territory. Notice shall be mailed and posted at least 20 days prior to the date of deliberations. Notice shall be published as required by state law. C. The notice requirements in Subsection B shall: 1. Describe the affected territory in a manner that allows certainty; 2. State the date,time and place where the reviewing entity will consider the boundary change; and 3. State the means by which any person may obtain a copy of the reviewing entity's report on the proposal The City has provided written notification of this annexation to necessary parties (mailed notice), to the general vicinity (posting of the notice of annexation on these properties on September 17, 2025), and by publishing notice to the Lake Oswego Review, a newspaper of general circulation in the City. All notices were given at least 20 days prior to the date of the public hearing for annexation as required under MC 30.09.030 B.The notices contained information about the affected territory,time and place of the public hearing and the means by which any person can obtain a copy of the written report. The annexation notification and review procedures comply with the Metro code requirements. 1 "Necessary party" means "county; city; district whose jurisdictional boundary or adopted urban service area includes any part of the affected territory or who provides any urban service to any portion of the affected territory; Metro; or any other unit of local government." Metro Code 3.09.020(J). Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 2 OF 10 2. 3.09.040- Requirements for Petitions. (A) A petition for a boundary change must contain the following information: 1. The jurisdiction of the reviewing entity to act on the petition; 2. A map and a legal description of the affected territory in the form prescribed by the reviewing entity; 3. For minor boundary changes,the names and mailing addresses of all persons owning property and all electors within the affected territory as shown in the records of the tax assessor and county clerk; and, 4. For boundary changes under ORS 198.855 (3), 198.857, 222.125 or 222.170, statements of consent to the annexation signed by the requisite number of owners or electors. The above information was submitted as required by Metro Code. The property owner has signed the application and petition.The westerly property (TL 2600) is occupied by a single-family dwelling that is vacant. A map and legal description in the form required by the City have been included in the application materials and are on file.The property owner has consented to the annexation on the annexation petition, meeting the consent requirements of ORS 222.125. The annexation petition complies with the Metro code requirements. 3. 3.09.050(B, D) Hearing and Decision Requirements for Decisions Other Than Expedited Decisions 3.09.045(D, E) Expedited Decisions(criteria incorporated for non-expedited decisions by MC 3.09.050(D)) B. Not later than 15 days prior to the date set for a hearing a report shall be available to the public that addresses the criteria identified in subsection (D) and includes the following information: 1.The extent to which urban services are available to serve the affected territory, including any extra territorial extensions of service; 2. Whether the proposed boundary change will result in the withdrawal of the affected territory from the legal boundary of any necessary party; and 3.The proposed effective date of the boundary change. These findings meet subsection B. 3.09.045 Expedited Decision D. To approve a boundary change through an expedited process,the city shall: 1. Find that the change is consistent with expressly applicable provisions in: a. Any applicable urban service agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.065 The City has entered into ORS 195.065 agreements with: 1) Lake Grove Park District (Lake Oswego School District) and 2) Lake Grove Fire District. Lake Grove Park District (Lake Oswego School District):The City and the Lake Oswego School District entered into an ORS 195.065 urban service agreement for park services in July, 2003.The School District operates the Lake Grove Swim Park located at 3800 Lakeview Boulevard. The agreement states that the annexation of property by the City within the Lake Grove Park District (which funds the swim park) shall not cause the withdrawal of the property from the district. Lake Grove Fire District: The City and District entered into an ORS 195.065 urban service agreement for fire protection in July, 2003. The agreement states that upon annexation of property within the district by the City, the annexed property shall be withdrawn from the District and the City shall provide fire protection services.These properties are within the boundaries of the Lake Grove Fire District#57 and the annexation will withdraw these properties from that District. The proposed annexation is consistent with these agreements. Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 3 OF 10 b. Any applicable annexation plan adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205. There are no applicable annexation plans adopted pursuant to ORS 195.205 relating to the affected territory. c. Any applicable cooperative planning agreement adopted pursuant to ORS 195.020(2) between the affected entity and a necessary party. There are no ORS 195.020(2) cooperative agreements (which relate to special districts) between the city and a necessary party. d. Any applicable public facility plan adopted pursuant to a statewide planning goal on public facilities and services. Consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 11 (Public Facilities) and the Community Health and Public Safety Chapter of the Comprehensive Plan,the City maintains a Public Facilities Plan (PFP). The PFP consists of master plans for streets, sanitary sewer, water, and stormwater facilities, which provide the basis for long-range planning for both the incorporated and unincorporated lands within Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary(USB).The PFP is comprised of the Lake Oswego Transportation System Plan, Wastewater Master Plan, Water System Master Plan, and Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan, pursuant to Statewide Planning Goals 11 (Public Facilities) and 12 (Transportation). Wastewater Master Plan: Sanitary sewer service is available from an 8-inch collection line in Amber Place terminating near the south property line.The Engineering Staff has confirmed that this sewer main can provide public sanitary sewer service to these properties and any future development of the site. With development, a public sewer main extension would be required in Amber Place and the line would need to be extended far enough to serve the homes on this site, as well as future connections for 13079 and 13101 Amber Place across the street from the site. The Engineering staff has found that the existing main line in Amber Place may not be deep enough to provide gravity service to all of the future lots on the properties.The sewer main will be required to be deep enough to provide gravity service to all of the homes on both sides of Amber Place. Each home will be charged the applicable System Development Charge (SDC)for connection to the public sewer.The on-site work would involve decommissioning the existing septic tank(removal, or filling with sand or gravel). All work would be done by private contractors. Upon completion of the public sewer extension,the applicant will qualify for the formation of a Zone of Benefit per LOC 40.04,which will establish a means through which the applicant can recover a pro-rata share of the cost of construction when other properties (13079 and 13101 Amber Place) directly connect to this sewer extension. Note:The Engineering Staff has preliminarily commented by memo on the development standards that would apply for the possible future land division, which will be prepared as a part of the preapplication conference for any land division. The sanitary sewer service that would potentially serve these properties could be provided in a manner that is consistent with the Wastewater Master Plan. Water System Master Plan: Water is available from a 6-inch City water main located in Amber Place along the site frontage that can provide water service for future development.The nearest existing fire hydrant is located at the south boundary of this site along the east side of Amber Place. Individual private water services would be required at the time of future development, unless exempted.A new connection will be charged the applicable System Development Charge (SDC) when the individual service is made for a new home at the time of building permit issuance. Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 4 OF 10 Water will be provided to this site in a manner that is consistent with the City Water System Master Plan. Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan: There are no public stormwater systems in the vicinity of these properties. After annexation, on-site surface water management requirements will fall under various provisions of the Lake Oswego Code. For example, stormwater runoff from new and/or replaced impervious surface areas shall be managed in accordance with the City's Stormwater Management Code (LOC 38.25), consistent with the Clean Streams (Stormwater) Plan. Transportation (Statewide Planning Goal 12):The City's Transportation System Plan implements the multi-modal transportation system that will meet the needs of the city for a 20-year planning horizon. Amber Place is a local street and is under the jurisdiction and permitting authority of Lake Oswego. The nearest mass transit service is Tri-Met bus line 78, which operates between downtown Lake Oswego and the Tigard and Beaverton Transit Centers. Service can be accessed at the intersection of Knaus and Country Club Roads. e. Any applicable comprehensive plan policies Comprehensive Plan Map:These properties are currently designated R-20, Low Density Residential on Clackamas County's Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Maps. It is designated Low Density Residential, R-10 on the City's Comprehensive Plan Map. As required by LOC 50.01.005.5, upon annexation, a City zoning designation of R-10 will be automatically applied to these properties. The City and County have coordinated their comprehensive plans within the Dual Interest Area outlined in the City-County Urban Growth Management Agreement(UGMA) (dated February 4, 1992 and updated November 18, 1997), hence the City/County designations have been determined to be compatible.The proposed zoning designation of R-10 is consistent with the UGMA between the County and the City. Comprehensive Plan Policies- Urbanization:The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan contains the following relevant language in the Urbanization chapter: Policy A-3: "The Urban Services Boundary(as depicted on the Comprehensive Plan Map) is the area within which the City shall be the eventual provider of the full range of urban services."These properties are within the City's Urban Services Boundary.Therefore,the proposed annexation and the withdrawal of these properties from the identified districts is consistent with this policy. Policy C-3: "Ensure that annexation of new territory or expansion of Lake Oswego's Urban Services Boundary does not detract from the City's ability to provide services to existing City residents." The approval of this annexation will result in the addition of 1.23 acres to be served by the City.As stated in Section 2(b)(1), the addition of this territory will not detract from the City's ability to provide police and fire protection to existing City residents. As outlined elsewhere in these findings and the incorporated materials, annexation of these properties will not affect the City's ability to provide parks and recreation services, sewer or water services. Policy C-4: "Prior to the annexation of non-island properties, ensure urban services are available and adequate to serve these properties or will be made available in a timely manner by the City or a developer commensurate with the scale of the proposed development." Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 5 OF 10 Availability of urban services serving these properties is discussed below: Water: Water is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Sewer: Sanitary sewer service is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d. Stormwater: As detailed in subsection D.1.d,future development will be required to comply with the City standards for stormwater management. Fire Protection: Lake Grove Fire District#57 provides fire protection services to these properties by agreement with the City of Lake Oswego.The District has no bonded debt. Upon annexation,these properties will be withdrawn from this fire district per a July 2003 urban service agreement and will be served directly by the City.The Main Fire Station on 300 B Avenue, located southeast of the site, would be able to respond to emergencies under the eight-minute goal established in the Comprehensive Plan. Police: Upon annexation,these properties will be withdrawn from the Clackamas County Enhanced Sheriff's Patrol District and served by the City of Lake Oswego.The Lake Oswego Police Department reviewed the proposal and indicated that it does not have any concerns with serving these properties upon annexation. Parks and Open Space: The City has 629 acres of park and open space lands, or 14.6 acres per 1,000 population.The parks nearest to these properties are Tryon Creek State Natural Park, Woodmont Park, Springbrook Park and Iron Mountain Park.The City's park system will not be overburdened by any additional population annexed to the City with this application. Lake Grove Park District: The Lake Grove Swim Park, managed by the Lake Oswego School District, and funded by the Lake Grove Park District, is located at 3800 Lakeview Boulevard. The swim park is approximately 1.3 acres in size with restroom, play and swim facilities. These properties will remain within the Lake Grove Park District following annexation. Library District of Clackamas County:The Library District was formed to act as the fiscal agent for the distribution of property tax revenues raised by the District permanent rate to participating local governments who operate public libraries within Clackamas County.These properties will remain within the Library District of Clackamas County following annexation. Transportation -Streets and Mass Transit:Transportation infrastructure and transit service is available to serve the subject area, as detailed in subsection D.1.d, above. Other Urban Services: LOC 50.06.008.3 requires that all development be provided with the following utility services: sanitary sewer, water, sidewalks, pedestrian and bicycle paths,traffic control signs and devices, street lights, streets, and TV cable.These utilities are now in place or can be put in place to serve these properties. In the event that future development occurs, an applicant for development is obligated to construct all necessary public facilities to serve their development. Policy D-3: "Enter into and maintain an Urban Growth Management Agreement with Clackamas County for lands within the Urban Services Boundary to Promote orderly annexation of territory." Urban Growth Management Agreement The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Urbanization Chapter, Policy D-3, calls for entering into and maintaining an UGMA with Clackamas County for lands within the USB. Similarly, General Urbanization Policy 4.A.4 of the Clackamas County Comprehensive Plan calls for the establishment of Urban Growth Management Areas and Urban Growth Management Agreements to clarify planning responsibilities between the County and cities for areas of mutual Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 6 OF 10 interest. Policy 4.A.5 directs the County to establish agreements with cities and service districts to clarify service and infrastructure responsibilities for areas of mutual interest. In furtherance of these policies,the City and County have entered into an UGMA that stipulates a mutual interest in coordinated land use planning, compatible comprehensive plans and provision of urban services and facilities. This agreement ensures coordination and consistency between the City and County comprehensive plans and outlines responsibilities in providing services and managing growth within the Dual Interest Area. Subsections 6 and 7, provided below, are applicable to annexations. "6C. City and County Notice and Coordination: The City shall provide notification to the County, and an opportunity to participate, review and comment, at least 35 days prior to the first public hearing on all proposed public facilities plans, legislative changes to the City Comprehensive Plan, or quasi-judicial land use actions adjacent to, or in close proximity to unincorporated areas. The City shall provide notice to the County of private or City initiated annexation requests within five days of the filing of an application with the Portland Metropolitan Boundary Commission." The Urban Growth Management Agreement specifies that the City notify the County of an annexation request within five days of when it is submitted to the Boundary Commission.There is no longer a Boundary Commission for the Portland Metropolitan area. Staff relies on the notice requirements of Metro Code 3.09.030(B), which requires mailing notice to all necessary parties, posting of a weatherproof notice in the general vicinity of the affected territory and by publishing notice in a newspaper of general circulation in the affected territory. Notice shall be mailed and posted at least 20 days prior to the date of deliberations. The notice required by MC 3.09.030 shall follow the requirements under MC 3.09.030(C), where the notice shall describe the affected territory in a manner that allows certainty, state the date, time and place where the reviewing entity will consider the boundary change; and, state the means by which any person may obtain a copy of the reviewing entity's report on the proposal. Clackamas County is a "necessary" party under the Metro Code definition and was notified on September 17, 2025, 20 days before the public hearing. "7. City Annexations A. The City may undertake annexations in the manner provided for by law within the Dual Interest Area. The City annexation proposals shall include adjacent road right- of-way to property proposed for annexation. The County shall not oppose such annexations. B. Upon annexation, the City shall assume jurisdiction of the County roads and local access roads pursuant to a separate road transfer agreement between the City and county." The City is undertaking this annexation in the manner provided for in the applicable ORS and Metro Code for the territories that lie within the Dual Interest Area.This annexation is consistent with the City and County comprehensive plans, which have been coordinated in the Dual Interest Area within the regional Urban Growth Boundary(UGB). Statewide Goal 10 and Complete Neighborhoods and Housing City Comprehensive Plan Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter The Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter of the City's Comprehensive Plan implements Statewide Housing Goal 10 and the Portland Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0000 et seq.), which requires that the City plan for a supply of residentially zoned land with an average allowed Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 7 OF 10 density of 10 dwelling units per net acre, and the opportunity to develop a mix of housing types consisting of not less than 50%attached and multifamily dwellings. Compliance with the State rules ensures the opportunity to provide adequate numbers of needed housing units and the efficient use of buildable land within urban growth boundaries,while promoting certainty in the development process to help reduce housing costs. The following Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) provides standards for compliance with Goal 10 "Housing" pursuant to ORS 197.296 (Buildable Lands) and ORS 197.303 through 197.307 (Needed Housing): OAR 660-008-0010 Allocation of Buildable Land The mix and density of needed housing is determined in the housing needs projection. Sufficient buildable land shall be designated on the comprehensive plan map to satisfy housing needs by type and density range as determined in the housing needs projection. The local buildable lands inventory must document the amount of buildable land in each residential plan designation. The Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan, Complete Neighborhoods and Housing Chapter, adopted pursuant to Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule, is designed to meet Lake Oswego's housing needs for not less than a twenty-year planning period.The Comprehensive Plan Map designates residential land use designations within the City limits and within Lake Oswego's USB through the year 2035.The Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations are consistent with the City's Housing Needs Analysis 20 Year Housing Need 2023-2043 (HNA 9/21/23), also incorporated herein by reference, and the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County Urban Growth Management Agreement (UGMA), which specifies future zoning of lands with the USB upon annexation to Lake Oswego.These designations match the corresponding Zoning Map designations such that there is only one zone for each Plan designation, and therefore only one zone that is applied to each lot upon annexation, consistent with the UGMA and in compliance with Goal 10 and the Metropolitan Housing Rule. In the case of the subject application,the applicable Plan Map designation and corresponding Zone Map designation is R-10. The HNA is based on the Comprehensive Plan Map's residential land use designations. Figure 6.3 of the HNA, excerpted below,forecasts a citywide deficit of 642 units (86 acres), including a deficit of 192 units (38 acres) of low-density residential land,to meet the city's housing needs by 2043. FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate(0.05%) Zone&Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached&plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home;2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS:1 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 8 OF 10 The proposed annexation would add 1.23 acres of low-density residential land to the City's Buildable Lands inventory(BLI),which would correspondingly reduce the deficit of low-density residential land needed to meet the city's housing needs by 2043 by 1.23 acres.The proposed annexation and designation of City zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Map, and will help to meet the City's housing needs as identified by the HNA;therefore,the annexation and zone change comply with Goal 10 and its implementing administrative rules. In this case,the zoning district would provide the opportunity for needed housing as identified in the HNA. The City uses the following approach for findings supporting two types of annexation zone changes: • Option 1 is for annexation-related non-discretionary Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map amendments. • Option 2 is for annexation-related discretionary Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map amendments. "Non-discretionary" amendments are Zoning Map amendments applied to an annexed property (or properties) where the applicable zoning designation is prescribed by the City's Comprehensive Plan and a zoning conversion table in the city-county UGMA. "Discretionary" amendments are where more than one zoning designation is applicable, as prescribed by the city's Comprehensive Plan and the city-county UGMA, and the City Council has discretion in applying zoning. The proposed rezoning in AN 25-0007 is non-discretionary because the zoning is prescribed by the City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and the zoning conversion table in the City of Lake Oswego-Clackamas County UGMA. The City's R-10 zone is proposed to be applied consistent with (matching)the R-10 land use designation in the City's Goal 10/Metro Housing Rule-compliant comprehensive plan.The Metropolitan Housing Rule (OAR 660-007-0035(3)) state that Lake Oswego must provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre.The City's R-10 zone allows for the development of townhouse projects on properties meeting the minimum lot size of 1,500 sq.ft., corresponding to a density of more than 29 dwelling units per acre.The City's R-10 zone also allows for the development of cottage cluster developments of up to 8 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size of 10,000 sq.ft., corresponding to a density of more than 34 dwelling units per acre. Additionally,the City's R-10 zone allows for the development of quadplexes containing 4 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 17 dwelling units per acre. Further,the City's R-10 zone allows for the development of triplexes containing 3 dwelling units on properties meeting the minimum lot size, corresponding to a density of more than 13 dwelling units per acre.Therefore,the City's R-10 zone meets the requirement to provide for an overall density of ten or more dwelling units per net buildable acre. The City Council does not have discretion to apply a different zone to the subject property unless it is amending the Comprehensive Plan to change the land use designation; therefore, the City does not evaluate proposed zones against its HNA.The City simply applies the zoning that is prescribed by the Comprehensive Plan, consistent with the Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Goal 10) chapter of the Plan. In doing so,the City relies on LOC 50.01.004.5.a,which states that the Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Map provides for the future City zoning of all property within the City's USB. In cases where the Comprehensive Plan Map requires a specific zoning map designation,this designation is automatically imposed on territory when the property is annexed to the City. In conclusion,the proposed R-10 zoning is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and City-County UGMA for the subject properties, and the City Council does not have other zoning options from which to choose in approving AN 25-0007. Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 9 OF 10 f. Any applicable concept plan There are no applicable concept plans in this area. 2. Consider whether the boundary change would a. Promote the timely orderly and economic provision of public facilities and services b. Affect the quality and quantity of urban services c. Eliminate or avoid unnecessary duplication of facilities or services The proximity of these properties to existing City services will allow this annexation to promote the timely, orderly and economical extension of public facilities and services.These properties can readily be served with urban services and facilities. If and when additional development occurs in the area, provision of public facilities and services will occur consistent with the City's adopted public facility master plans, ensuring that it does not adversely affect the quality or quantity of urban services and avoiding unnecessary duplication of facilities or services.Therefore,this boundary change is consistent with criteria 2.a through 2.c. E. A city may not annex territory that lies outside the UGB except it may annex a lot or parcel that lies partially within and partially outside the UGB. The properties to be annexed are located entirely within the City's UGB. C. Comprehensive Plan- Urbanization Chapter See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies— Urbanization." D. Comprehensive Plan—Complete Neighborhoods and Housing(Statewide Goal 10) See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies— Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Statewide Goal 10)." E. OAR 660-008-0010-Allocation of Buildable Land See discussion, above, under Section B.3, regarding Metro Code 3.09.045.D(1)(e), "Comprehensive Plan Policies— Complete Neighborhoods and Housing (Statewide Goal 10)." CONCLUSION: Based on the criteria and findings set forth above,the City Council concludes that AN 25-0007 can be made to comply with all applicable criteria and the annexation should be approved. EFFECTIVE DATE: A. Effective Date of Annexation Ordinance. Pursuant to Lake Oswego City Charter, Section 35.C.,the ordinance shall be effective on the 30th day after its enactment. B. Effective Date of Annexation. Following the filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State as required by ORS 222.177,this annexation shall be effective upon the later of: 1. the 30th day following the date of adoption of this ordinance; or 2. the date of filing of the annexation records with the Secretary of State; provided however that pursuant to ORS 222.040(2), if the effective date of the annexation as established above is a date that is within 90 days of a biennial primary or general election or after the deadline for filing notice of election before any other election held by any City, district or other municipal corporation involved in the area to be annexed, the annexation shall become effective on the day after the election. Ordinance 2970 (AN 25-0007) ATTACHMENT B/PAGE 10 OF 10 ATTACHMENT 2 (ORDINANCE 2934) LU 23-0023 tt 1 11'11Lrl1___1 a mod. .:.�N i: GS I � '"'�"� k0 l ... °"'".� r,.* - a l 1, ilea I I 4-? aisix 'II 'I Source:Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO, OR HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS (OREGON STATEWIDE PLANNING GOAL 10) 20-YEAR HOUSING NEED 2023 - 2043 September 21, 2023 ;;� JOHNSON ECONOMICS AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Lake Oswego.Johnson Economics and the City of Lake Oswego thank the many people who helped to develop this document. City Staff Erik Olson, Long Range Planning Manager Jessica Numanoglu, Interim Community Development Director Lake Oswego Housing Task Force Kasey Adler,Transportation Advisory Board Yoko Kinoshita, Resident Kyrsten Baumgart, Housing producer Rebecca Lane, Resident Phil Bertrand, Housing producer Rosalie Nowalk, Resident Joseph M. Buck, City Council Liaison John E. Pauley, Resident Thea Croman, DLCD Bruce Poinsette, Development Review Commission Kelly Reid, DLCD Phillip Stewart, Planning Commission Liaison Douglas Corder, 50+Advisory Board David Tangvald, Housing producer Pat Ginn, Resident Kimvi To, D.E.I. Advisory Board Diana Howell, Resident John Turchi, Resident Cara Kao-Young, Resident Sarah Walker, Housing producer Betty Jung, Resident Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Andrew Parish, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 8:Interpretation of Goal 10 Housing. This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development. The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon. City of Lake Oswego Johnson Economics 380 A Ave. 621 SW Alder Street Lake Oswego, OR 97034 Suite 605 (503) 635-0270 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 1 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 3 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 4 A. POPULATION GROWTH 5 B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE 5 C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS 5 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION 6 E. HOUSING UNITS 6 F. AGE TRENDS 6 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS 8 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY 10 I. INCOME TRENDS 11 J. POVERTY STATISTICS 12 K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS 12 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS 14 A. HOUSING TENURE 14 B. HOUSING STOCK 14 C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS 14 D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE 15 E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK 16 F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES 17 G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING 18 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS(CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 20 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS-2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) 26 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED(2043)&LAND SUPPLY 32 APPENDIX A: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY 35 CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 2 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 I. INTRODUCTION This analysis outlines a forecast of housing need within the City of Lake Oswego. Housing need and resulting land need are forecast to 2043,consistent with the 20-year need assessment requirements of Oregon Revised Statutes.' This report presents a housing need analysis (presented in number and types of housing units) and a residential land need analysis, based on those projections. The primary data sources used in generating this forecast were: ■ Portland State University Population Research Center ■ Metro ■ U.S.Census ■ Cla ritas2 ■ Oregon Employment Department ■ City of Lake Oswego ■ Clackamas County ■ Other sources are identified as appropriate. This analysis relies heavily on Census data from both the 2020 Decennial Census and the American Community Survey(ACS).All Census data feature some margin of error but remain the best source of data available on many demographic and housing subjects. One limitation of the 2020 Census is the release schedule of data sets,which takes place over several years following the year of the Census. Thus far, data has been released on: Population; Race; Latino ethnicity; number of Households; number of Housing Units; and Group Quarters population. While these are key baseline data sets utilized in this analysis, any additional nuance on demographics and housing from the 2020 Census are not yet available,with the next data release expected later in 2023. Despite the limitations,the 2020 Census is relied upon here as the best available source for the key indicators listed above in Lake Oswego,as of 2023. For more detailed data sets on demographics and housing,this analysis relies on the American Community Survey (ACS), which features a higher margin of error on all tables than the Decennial Census. The ACS is a survey of a representative sample of households which the Census uses to make estimates generalized to the population of the relevant geography.This analysis relies whenever possible on the most recent 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.The 5-year estimates have a lower margin of error than the ACS 1-year estimates. ORS 197.628;OAR 660-025 2 Claritas is a third-party company providing data on demographics and market segmentation.It licenses data from the Nielson Company which conducts direct market research including surveying of households across the nation. Nielson combines proprietary data with data from the U.S.Census,Postal Service,and other federal sources,as well as local-level sources such as Equifax,Vallassis and the National Association of Realtors. Projections of future growth by demographic segments are based on the continuation of long-term and emergent demographic trends identified through the above sources. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 3 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 II. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE SUMMARY The following table (Figure 2.1) presents a profile of City of Lake Oswego demographics from the 2000 and 2010 Census. It also reflects the estimated population of this area as of 2023 from PSU estimates,forecasted forward to 2023 using the estimated growth rate between 2010 and 2022. ■ Lake Oswego is a City of over 41,500 people located in Clackamas County in the southern-central area of the Portland metropolitan region. ■ Based on estimated population, Lake Oswego is the 13th largest city in the state by population, similar in size to Oregon City regionally,or Keizer and Grants Pass statewide.Lake Oswego has about 1.5 times the population of neighboring West Linn or Tualatin,and about 75%of the population of Tigard. ■ Lake Oswego has experienced modest growth, growing roughly 18% since 2000, or less than 1% per year. In contrast, Clackamas County and the state experienced population growth of 26% and 25% respectively. (US Census and PSU Population Research Center) FIGURE 2.1:LAKE OSWEGO DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES,AND YEAR-ROUND HOUSING UNITS 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (PSU) 10-23 Population' 35,278 36,619 4% 41,550 13% Households2 14,824 15,893 7% 17,481 10% Families3 9,775 10,079 3% 11,842 17% Housing Units4 15,668 16,995 8% 18,345 8% Group Quarters Populations 163 222 36% 329 48% Household Size(non-group) 2.37 2.29 -3% 2.36 3% Avg.Family Size 2.93 2.88 -2% 2.97 3% PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);51901;519301 1 From Census,PSU Population Research Center,growth rate 2010-2022 extended to 2023 2 2023 Households=(2023 population-Group Quarters Population)/2023 HH Size 3 Ratio of 2023 Families to total HH is based on 2021 ACS 5-year Estimates 4 2023 housing units are the'20 Census total plus new units permitted from'20 through'22(source: Census,City) 5 2023 Group Quarters Population based on 5-yearACS estimates 2017-2021 ■ Lake Oswego was home to an estimated 17,500 households in 2023, an increase of over 2,650 households since 2000. The percentage of families has increased slightly from 66% of all households in 2000 to 68% in 2023. The city has a similar share of family households to Clackamas County (69%) but higher than the state (63%).Average household size is estimated to have remained fairly stable during this period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 4 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • Lake Oswego's estimated average household size is 2.4 persons. This is lower than the Clackamas County average of 2.6 and similar to the statewide average of 2.44. A. POPULATION GROWTH Since 2000, Lake Oswego has grown by nearly 6,300 people within the UGB, or 18% in 23 years. This was lower than the countywide rate of growth. Clackamas County as a whole has grown an estimated 26%since 2000,while other cities in the county such as West Linn and Oregon City grew by 23% and 46% respectively. Portland's population grew by an estimated 19%during this period (PSU Population Research Center). B. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH&SIZE As of 2023,the city has an estimated 17,500 households. Since 2000, Lake Oswego has added an estimated 2,650 households. This is an average of roughly 115 households annually during this period.The growth since 2000 has paced the growth in new housing units,which have been permitted at the rate of roughly 117 units per year. There has been a general trend in Oregon and nationwide towards declining household size as birth rates have fallen, more people have chosen to live alone, and the Baby Boomers have become "empty nesters." While this trend of diminishing household size is expected to continue nationwide,there are limits to how far the average can fall. Lake Oswego's average household size of 2.4 people,with 68%family households,is smaller than Clackamas County (2.6 persons;69%families). Figure 2.2 shows the share of households by the number of people for renter and owner households in 2021(latest data available),according to the Census. Renter households are more likely to be one-person households,with 75% having two or fewer residents. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons. FIGURE 2.2: NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER HOUSEHOLD,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO 0 7-or-more ° Renter 6-person 1�° Owner 2% 5-person 3% 4% in 2 4-person 11% v 18% = 3-person 11% 19% 2-person 35% 38% 1-person ° 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of Households SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25009(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) C. FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS As of the 2021 ACS,68%of Lake Oswego households were family households,up from 63.4%of households in 2010. The total number of family households in Lake Oswego is estimated to have grown by over 2,060 since 2000.The Census defines family households as two or more persons, related by marriage, birth or adoption and living together. In 2023,family households in Lake Oswego have an estimated average size of 2.97 people. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 5 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 D. GROUP QUARTERS POPULATION As of the 2020 Census, the City of Lake Oswego had an estimated group quarters population of 0.8% of the total population, or 329 persons. Group quarters include such shared housing situations as nursing homes, prisons, dorms, group residences, military housing, or shelters. For the purposes of this analysis, these residents are removed from the estimated population total, before determining the number of other types of housing that are needed for non-group households.In Lake Oswego,nearly 90%of the group quarters population is found in assisted living facilities. E. HOUSING UNITS Data from the City of Lake Oswego and the US Census indicate that the city added roughly 2,680 new housing units since 2000, representing 17% growth in the housing stock. This number of new units is slightly higher than the growth in new households estimated during the same period (2,660), indicating that housing growth has kept pace with growing need. As of 2023, the city had an estimated housing stock of roughly 18,350 units for its 17,500 estimated households. This translates to an estimated average vacancy rate of 4.7%. Residential Permits:An average of 117 units have been permitted annually since 2000,with 24%being multi-family units. Most multi-family housing in Lake Oswego has been built in the last decade. FIGURE 2.3:HISTORIC AND PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL PERMITS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO Housing Permits •Multi-Family 350 •Single Family 300 250 200 150 100I ' 50 ' — I ' 0 OO O'L OR Oro Orb 0 yL 0� yco 4' ti0 ,ti'L ,y0 ,LO ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,y0 ,LO SOURCE:HUD F. AGE TRENDS The following figure shows the share of the population falling in different age cohorts between the 2000 Census and the most recent 5-year American Community Survey estimates. As the chart shows,there is a general trend for middle age and young cohorts to fall as share of total population, while older cohorts have grown in share.This is in keeping with the national trend caused by the aging of the Baby Boom generation. Overall, Lake Oswego has an older population than the county,with a similar share of children, but a smaller share of those aged 25 to 44 years. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 6 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 2.4:AGE COHORT TRENDS,2000-2021 25% Lake Oswego(2000) ti o N Lake Oswego(2021) 20% v ,,go' N. o o Clack.Co.(2021) ti co 0 15% -1 m ti m v N o , , c-I o N o * o c-I c-I e , 0 o —, 0 , 1-1 O c , 10% '" O1 o 0 o Un Un 5% a mi N N c 0% ■ a co A Lb J aec �o ,co �o �o �o ,,o ,co Lb J� 4, 4, 0, t< 5' 4h 4, SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:QT-P1(2000);S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The cohorts which grew the most in share during this period were those aged 55 to 74 years.Still,an estimated 79%of the population is under 65 years of age. • In the 2021 ACS, the local median age was an estimated 46 years, compared to 40 years in Oregon, and 39 years nationally. Figure 2.5 presents the share of households with children, and the share of population over 65 years for comparison. Compared to state and national averages, Lake Oswego has a similar share of households with children. However,at 21%,the share of population over 65 is higher than the state and national figures. FIGURE 2.5:SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILDREN POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS(LAKE OSWEGO) Share of Households with Children Share of Population Over 65 Years 40% 40% 31% 31% 30% 28% 30% 21% 20% 20% 18% 16% 10% 10% II 0% 0% Lake Oswego Oregon USA Lake Oswego Oregon USA SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B11005;S0101(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 7 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 G. DIVERSITY TRENDS The following figure presents the distribution of Lake Oswego's population by race and Hispanic ethnicity. The community grew more diverse between the 2010 and 2020 Census, with the population's white (non-Hispanic) share falling from 90%to 80%. The Asian population makes up 8% of the population, and the Hispanic or Latino population makes up 5%of residents.9%of residents identify as two or more races. FIGURE 2.6: RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY,2010—2020(LAKE OSWEGO) 100% Share of Population by Race o Lake Oswego(2010) oo 80% •Lake Oswego(2020) 60% •Clackamas Co. 40% Oregon 20% o o 00 e o o. o u, o o M _. °) C -O N C Cl) Cl) 0 co C > co -O ro 0 c LE L., 17, w (0 C Q CO 0 C f0 N J N c) COZ Q ro a) O I° O 0 p Y COYv a E a_' CO o_ N Lc) ± SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P1,P2(2010,2020) In comparison,the share of the population identifying as white is also 80%in Clackamas County,and 75%statewide. The share of Lake Oswego's population identifying as Hispanic or Latino is 5% of the population, indicating over 2,100 people as of the 2020 Census.This is lower than the 14%share statewide. FIGURE 2.7:AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Average Household Size by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 2.5 White alone 2.4 Black or African American alone 2.5 American Indian and Alaska Native alone 2.8 Asian alone 2.8 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 3.5 Hispanic or Latino 3.7 Some Other Race alone 4.0 Two or more races: 2.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Avg.Number of Persons per Household SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:P17A-H,(State of Oregon,2020) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2010).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature unusually large margins of error due to the small sample size. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 8 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Minority households tend to have a larger average household size than the average of all households (Figure 2.7). (This figure presents statewide data due to the high margin of error for local data in this data set.) Households identifying as"white alone" have the lowest average household size(2.4 persons),while all other racial and ethnic categories have a larger estimated average household size. Some of the non-white categories, such as black households and those of two or more races,are still similar in average size(2.5 and 2.7 persons,respectively).Those with the largest estimated households are Latinos, Pacific Islanders,and those identifying as"some other race." Larger average household size indicates a need for units with more bedrooms on average among many minority households. Each household has its own housing needs in terms of the number of bedrooms and other factors, based on the specific makeup of each family. Based on voluntary guidelines provided by HUD for public housing programs, households of between 2 persons generally need a one-bedroom unit, households with 3 persons might need two bedrooms, and those with 4 persons might need three bedrooms. Larger households may need four or more bedrooms,which are typically found in single detached homes. Based on statewide data, many racial and ethnic minorities are currently less likely to own the homes they occupy (Figure 2.8)—meaning that they tend to occupy rental units.These communities face systemic obstacles to home ownership,including lower generational wealth, less access to capital and financing,and a history of discrimination in lending and geography(e.g.,redlining).While the country and state try to address explicit discrimination through the law, the legacy of these barriers continues to hamper home ownership for many minority households. Going forward, many communities would benefit from more entry-level homebuying opportunities for these households, as well as additional rental housing for those who are still unready or unable to buy a home. FIGURE 2.8: HOME OWNERSHIP RATE BY RACIAL AND ETHNIC CATEGORY(OREGON) Owner-Occupied Households by Race& Ethnicity(Oregon) All Households 63% White alone 65% Black or African American alone 36% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 48% Asian alone 63% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 32% Hispanic or Latino 45% Some Other Race alone 43% Two or more races: 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ownership Rate SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:B25003A-H,(State of Oregon,2021 ACS 5-year) *This data is presented on a statewide basis using the most recent Census data available(2020).The data for the Lake Oswego or Clackamas County geographies feature larger margins of error due to small sample size in some of the racial categories. Populations from some racial and ethnic minority groups also have lower average incomes and are more likely to have income below the official poverty level when compared to the total population. Such income levels are correlated with a greater share of renter households and impact the types of housing these populations consume, as discussed in further detail below. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 9 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 H. PEOPLE WITH A DISABILITY An estimated 8%of the population of Lake Oswego, or 3,140 people, report having some form of disability.This is lower than the statewide rate of 14%and the Clackamas County rate of 12%of people with a disability.(The Census reports these statistics for the"non-institutionalized population.") The following figure presents Census estimates of the types of disability reported among Lake Oswego residents. Any type of disability impacts the type of housing that may be appropriate for a resident,but those with the greatest impact on needed unit type are generally an ambulatory,self-care, or independent living disability.Those with an ambulatory disability often need units with expanded access for a wheelchair,walker, or scooter.Those with self- care or independent living disabilities may require additional safety precautions around the home to protect a resident who cannot always be directly monitored. FIGURE 2.9: LAKE OSWEGO SHARE OF THE POPULATION WITH DISABILITY,BY TYPE Share of Population Population with a disability 7.8% Hearing difficulty 2.4% Vision difficulty 1.7% Cognitive difficulty 2.7% Ambulatory difficulty 2.9% Self-care difficulty 1.1% Independent living difficulty 2.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) FIGURE 2.10:LAKE OSWEGO POPULATION WITH A DISABILITY,BY AGE Share of Population with Disability by Age Total population ■ 7.8% Under 18 years . 2.0% 18 to 64 years 5.8% 65 years and over 19.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% SOURCE:US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC Census Tables:DP02,(2020 ACS 5-year) CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 10 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Older residents are more likely to report a disability, including nearly 20%of those over 65 years. Of those aged 18 to 64 years, 6% of the local population reports a disability, and 2% of children. Because Census data tends to undercount the homeless and other vulnerable populations, there are likely more disabled residents in Lake Oswego than reflected in these data. I. INCOME TRENDS The following figure presents data on Lake Oswego's income trends. FIGURE 2.11: INCOME TRENDS,2000-2023(LAKE OSWEGO) PER CAPITA AND MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2000 2010 Growth 2023 Growth (Census) (Census) 00-10 (Proj.) 10-23 Per Capita ($) $42,166 $53,652 27% $74,600 39% Median HH($) $71,597 $84,186 18% $123,300 46% SOURCE:Census,Metro Consolidated Forecast,PSU Population Research Center,and Johnson Economics Census Tables: DP-1(2000,2010);DP-3(2000);S1901;S19301 • Lake Oswego's estimated median household income was$123,000 in 2023.This is nearly 40%higher than the Clackamas County median of$88,500,and 75%higher than the statewide median of$70,000. • Lake Oswego's per capita income is roughly$75,000. • Median income has grown an estimated 46% between 2010 and 2023, in real dollars. Inflation was an estimated 34%over this period,so the local median income has well exceeded inflation.This is not the case in many regions and nationally,where income growth has not kept pace with inflation. FIGURE 2.12: HOUSEHOLD INCOME COHORTS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Household Income Groups $200,000 or more 27% $150,000 to$199,999 12% $100,000 to$149,999 20% $75,000 to$99,999 11% $50,000 to$74,999 11% $35,000 to$49,999 6% $25,000 to$34,999 4% $15,000 to$24,999 4% $10,000 to$14,999 2% Less than$10,000 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SOURCE: US Census,Census Tables:S1901(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) Figure 2.12 presents the estimated distribution of households by income as of 2021. The largest income cohorts are those households earning between $100k and $200k per year (32%), followed by households earning over $200k(27%). • 41%of households earn less than $100,000. • Roughly 19%of households earn less than$50k per year. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 11 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 J. POVERTY STATISTICS According to the US Census,the official poverty rate in Lake Oswego is an estimated 4%over the most recent period reported (2021 5-year estimates).3 This is roughly 1,700 individuals in Lake Oswego. In comparison, the official poverty rate in Clackamas County is 9%, and at the state level is 17%. In the 2017-21 period: ■ The Lake Oswego poverty rate is low among all groups,but highest among those 65 years and older at 5%.The rate is 4%among those 18 to 64 years of age.The estimated rate is lowest for children at 3%. ■ For those without a high school diploma,the poverty rate is 11%. ■ Among those who are employed the poverty rate is 2%,while it is 7%for those who are unemployed. Information on affordable housing is presented in Section II F of this report. FIGURE 2.13:POVERTY STATUS BY CATEGORY(LAKE OSWEGO) Poverty Level of Subgroups Under 18 years 3% 18 to 64 years 4% 65 years and over 5% Employed 2% Unemployed 7% Less than high school 11% High school 10% Some college, associate's 7% Bachelor's degree or higher 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: S1701(2021 ACS 5-yr Est.) K. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION TRENDS This section provides an overview of employment and industry trends in Lake Oswego that are related to housing. Commuting Patterns: The following figure shows the inflow and outflow of commuters to Lake Oswego according to the Census Employment Dynamics Database. These figures reflect"covered employment" as of 2019,the most recent year available. Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. As of 2017,the most recent year available,the Census estimated there were roughly 23,100 covered employment jobs located in Lake Oswego. Of these,an estimated 2,250 or 10%,are held by local residents,while nearly 21,000 employees commute into the city from elsewhere.This general pattern is fairly common among many communities ▪Census Tables:S1701(2018 ACS 5-yr Estimates);Methodology The Census Bureau uses a set of income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. There are 48 separate income thresholds set based on the possible combinations of household composition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 12 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 in the Metro area, but the pattern is particularly stark here.The most common homes of local workers commuting into the city are Portland, Beaverton,or Tigard. This data set predates the surge in remote working that has taken place over the last few years. In prior years, it was safe to assume that most residents holding jobs outside the community likely commuted physically. Now, a resident might hold a job in another city but work from home. Unfortunately, these data do not quantify this growing segment. Similarly, of the estimated 18,000 employed Lake Oswego residents, 88% of them commute elsewhere to their employment. The most common destinations for Lake Oswego commuters are Portland and Beaverton. Smaller shares work elsewhere in the Portland metro or in the mid-Willamette Valley. FIGURE 2.14: COMMUTING PATTERNS(PRIMARY JOBS),LAKE OSWEGO Met:rger f Milwaukie Hosp' n,u Creek State `43 Milwaukie �, Natural AreaO M TDunthorpe 4r�i t 49E) lard Oswego 20,900 2,250 15,800 Work in Lake Oswego, Live and work Live in Lake Oswego, live elsewhere in Lake Oswego ` work elsewhere ! I ryant •riding ij Durham .1�� ritage Centeridi 90% / 10% 12% / 88% Jennie ■ MAKYLHL'i- i n ` River Grove .ualatin © Stafford Legacy Meridian Source: US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Jobs/Household Ratio: Lake Oswego features a balanced jobs-to-households ratio.There are an estimated 23,000 jobs in Lake Oswego (covered), and an estimated 17,500 households in Lake Oswego.This represents 1.3 jobs per household.There is no standard jobs-to-households ratio that is right for all communities,but it can provide a guide to the balance between employment uses and residential uses in the city. There is an average of 1.0 job held for each Lake Oswego household, a majority of which are located outside the city. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 13 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 III. CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS This section presents a profile of the current housing stock and market indicators in Lake Oswego.This profile forms the foundation to which current and future housing needs will be compared. A. HOUSING TENURE Lake Oswego has a greater share of homeowner households than renter households.The 2021 ACS estimates that 71% of occupied units were owner occupied, and only 29% renter occupied. The ownership rate is little changed since 2000.The estimated ownership rate is higher across Clackamas County(73%)and lower statewide(63%). B. HOUSING STOCK As shown in Figure 2.1, Lake Oswego had an estimated 18,350 housing units in 2023, with a vacancy rate of 5% (includes ownership and rental units).The housing stock has increased by roughly 2,680 units since 2000,or growth of over 17%. FIGURE 3.1: ESTIMATED SHARE OF UNITS,BY PROPERTY TYPE,2023 Lake Oswego, Oregon 80% 63% 60% 40% 21% 20% 9% 6% - 1% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp SOURCE: US Census,City of Lake Oswego Figure 3.1 shows the estimated number of units by type in 2023 based on US Census.Detached single-family homes represent an estimated 63%of housing units. Units in larger apartment complexes of 5 or more units represent 21%of units,and other types of attached homes represent 16%of units. (Attached single family generally includes townhomes, and some 2 to 4-plexes which are separately metered.) Manufactured homes represent well less than 1%of the inventory. C. NUMBER OF BEDROOMS Figure 3.2 shows the share of units for owners and renters by the number of bedrooms they have. In general, owner-occupied units are much more likely to have three or more bedrooms,while renter-occupied units are much more likely to have two or fewer bedrooms. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 14 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 3.2: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS FOR OWNER AND RENTER UNITS,2021(LAKE OSWEGO) Number of Bedrooms 5 or more 1% Renter 11% Owner 4 bedrooms 5% 39% 3 bedrooms 19% 33% 2 bedrooms 43% 14% 1 bedroom 27% 2°% Studio 6% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25042(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) D. UNIT TYPES BY TENURE As Figure 3.3 and 3.4 show, a large share of owner-occupied units (81%), are detached homes,which is related to why owner-occupied units tend to have more bedrooms. Renter-occupied units are much more distributed among a range of structure types.About 18%of rented units are estimated to be detached homes or manufactured homes, while the remainder are some form of attached unit. Nearly 60%of rental units are in larger apartment complexes. FIGURE 3.3: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,FOR OWNERSHIP AND RENTAL HOUSING(LAKE OSWEGO) OWNERSHIP HOUSING OWNERSHIP HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 10,557 1,292 9 337 781 32 0 13,008 Percentage: 81.2% 9.9% 0.1% 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING RENTAL HOUSING Single Single 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total Duplex 3-or 4-plex Detached Attached MFR home other temp Units Totals: 934 332 250 675 3,145 0 0 5,337 Percentage: 17.5% 6.2% 4.7% 12.7% 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 15 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 3.4: CURRENT INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE,BY SHARE Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% •Owner 80% Rental 59% E 60% 0 E' 40% 20% 18% 0 13% 0 1� 6% 0% 5/0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0/ Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units Manuf. Boat, RV, Detached Attached MFR home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO E. AGE AND CONDITION OF HOUSING STOCK Lake Oswego's housing stock reflects the pattern of development over time.The greatest periods of development in Lake Oswego were in the 1970's and 1980's. Roughly 15%of the housing stock has been built since 2000. FIGURE 3.5: AGE OF UNITS FOR OWNERS AND RENTERS(LAKE OSWEGO) 30% 25% Owner 25% 23% 23% Renter 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% o 7% 7/0 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 0% o5 �0005 y�0) �y���5 ��5 y�o5 o5 o5 of 3c) Year Housing Unit Built ti SOURCE: US Census Census Tables: B25036(2021 ACS 5-year Estimates) • Unfortunately, good quantitative data on housing condition is generally unavailable without an intensive on- site survey of all local housing,which is beyond the scope of this analysis.Census categories related to housing condition are ill-suited for this analysis, dealing with such issues as units without indoor plumbing,which was more common in the mid-20th Century, but is an increasingly rare situation.Age of units serves as the closest reliable proxy for condition with available data. • For ownership units,older homes may be in poor condition, but are also more likely to have undergone some repair and renovation over the years. Rental units are more likely to degrade steadily with age and wear-and- CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 16 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 tear, and less likely to receive sufficient reinvestment to keep them in top condition, though this is not universally true. F. HOUSING COSTS VS. LOCAL INCOMES Figure 3.6 shows the share of owner and renter households who are paying more than 30% of their household income towards housing costs, by income segment. (Spending 30%or less on housing costs is a common measure of"affordability" used by HUD and others,and in the analysis presented in this report.) As one would expect, households with lower incomes tend to spend more than 30%of their income on housing, while incrementally fewer of those in higher income groups spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs.Of those earning less than$20,000,an estimated 91%of owner households and 100%of renters spend more than 30%of income on housing costs. Even among households earning between $50,000 and $75,000 per year, a majority are housing cost burdened. Because Lake Oswego has an income distribution skewed towards higher income levels,there are relatively few households in these lower income segments,compared to most other cities. In total,the US Census estimates that over 31%of Lake Oswego households pay more than 30%of income towards housing costs(2021 American Community Survey, B25106) FIGURE 3.6: SHARE OF LAKE OSWEGO HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING MORE THAN 30% ON HOUSING COSTS, BY INCOME GROUP 100% 100% 91% 92% 88% Owner Households O 82% 80% 74% Renter Households 64% 60% 51% U, von 40% =• 20% 12% 16% 2• 0% .2 Less than $20,000 to $35,000 to $50,000 to $75,000 or $20,000 $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 more Household Income Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25106(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Housing is generally one of a household's largest living costs,if not the largest.The ability to find affordable housing options, and even build wealth through ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to helping lower income households save and cultivate wealth. Even if renting, affordable housing costs allow for more household income to be put to other needs, including saving. The following figures show the percentage of household income spent towards gross rent' for local renter households only. This more fine-grained data shows that not only are 49%of renters spending more than 30%of their income on gross rent, but an estimated 29%of renters are spending 50%or more of their income on housing and are considered severely rent-burdened. °The Census defines Gross Rent as"the contract rent plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities(electricity,gas,and water and sewer) and fuels(oil,coal,kerosene,wood,etc.)if these are paid by the renter(or paid for the renter by someone else)."Housing costs for homeowners include mortgage,property taxes,insurance,utilities and condo or HOA dues. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 17 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Renters are disproportionately lower income relative to homeowners. Housing cost burdens are felt more broadly for these households, and as the analysis presented in a later section shows there is a need for more affordable rental units in Lake Oswego,as in most communities. FIGURE 3.7: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME SPENT ON GROSS RENT,LAKE OSWEGO RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 35% 30% 29% 25% 25% 22% 0 ✓ 20% • 15% 14% • 10% 7% co 5/ � ■ 0% ,O ,Co ,co ,co otcc' 0 y O °A0 of Income to Gross Rent Sources: US Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Table: B25070(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) G. PUBLICLY ASSISTED HOUSING Oregon Housing and Community Services(OHCS)tracks three currently operating affordable housing properties in Lake Oswego,with a total of 76 units.These are properties that are funded through HUD programs,tax credits and other programs which guarantee subsidized rents for qualified households.All of these units,save one,are offered for elderly residents.The Marylhurst Commons, currently under development, is planned to offer 100 affordable units for families. Completion is expected in 2024. The Housing Authority of Clackamas County administers over 1,600 Section 8 housing choice vouchers that allow low-income participants to find rental units anywhere in the county. Under this program, the renters can find participating landlords and the voucher helps to subsidize the cost of a market-rate rental unit.The unit does not have to be in a property dedicated to subsidized affordable housing but can be in any rental property. The high share of renters still paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs indicates that there is an ongoing need for rental units at the lowest price points. Agricultural Worker Housing: Lake Oswego is not currently home to properties dedicated to agricultural workers. This population may also be served by other available affordable units. People Experiencing Homelessness: The Census does make a multi-faceted effort to include the unhoused population in the total Decennial Census count, by attempting to enumerate these individuals at service providers, and in transitory locations such as RV parks or campgrounds, as of the official Census data (4/1/20). However, it is difficult to make an accurate count of this population, and it is generally presumed that the unhoused are undercounted in the Census. The most recent (January 2022) Point-in-Time count of people experiencing homelessness and households experiencing homelessness in Clackamas County' found 597 unhoused individuals on the streets, in shelters, or Figures are for the entire County CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 18 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 other temporary and/or precarious housing. The estimated 597 unhoused individuals represent 0.1% of the county's total estimated population in 2022. • An estimated 45%of individuals were in some sort of temporary shelter,while 55%were unsheltered. • The total included 51 children (under age 18),and 26 youth (aged 18-24). • Of those indicating a gender, 60%of those counted identified as men,40%women. • 5%of those counted were Hispanic or Latino compared to 9.5%in the general population. • 304 individuals,or 51%,were counted as"chronically homeless".6 While the Point-in-Time count is one of the few systematized efforts to count people experiencing homelessness across the country in a regular, structured way, it is widely thought to undercount the population of unhoused individuals and households. People who are doubled up,couch surfing,or experiencing domestic violence may not always be accurately counted. In addition to the impossibility of finding all unsheltered individuals experiencing homelessness,the count is conducted in late January,when homeless counts are likely near their lowest of the year due to inclement weather. It also relies on self-reporting. A recent analysis prepared for OHCS to test a potential approach for preparing Housing Capacity Analyses on a regional basis included estimates of the unhoused population in Oregon communities, including Lake Oswego.The approach utilizes a combination of data from the bi-annual Point-in-Time count and from tracking of unhoused school-aged children in keeping with the McKinney-Vento Act.The analysis estimates 239 households experiencing homelessness in Lake Oswego as of mid-2020. These include households that are unsheltered, in temporary shelters, or staying with friends or relatives. These households are a component of current and future housing need. The persistence of people experiencing homelessness speaks to the need for continuing to build a full spectrum of services and housing types to shelter this population,from temporary shelter to subsidized affordable housing. An analysis of the ability of current and projected housing supply to meet the needs of low-income people and the potential shortfall is included in the following sections of this report. 6 HUD defines "chronically homeless" as an individual with a disability as defined by the McKinney-Vento Assistance Act, who has been in uninhabitable conditions for more than 12 mo.or on four separate occasions in the last three years;or has been in institutional care for less than 90 days;or a family with an adult head of household who meets this definition. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 19 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 IV. CURRENT HOUSING NEEDS (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The profile of current housing conditions in the study area is based on Census 2010, which the Portland State University Population Research Center(PRC) uses to develop yearly estimates through 2019. The 2019 estimate is forecasted to 2023 using the estimated growth rate realized since 2010. FIGURE 4.1:CURRENT LAKE OSWEGO HOUSING PROFILE(2023) CURRENT HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023) SOURCE Total 2023 Population: 41,550 PSU Pop.Research Center - Estimated group housing population: 329 (0.8%of Total) US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Population: 41,221 (Total-Group) Avg. HH Size: 2.36 US Census Estimated Non-Group 2023 Households: 17,481 (Pop/HH Size) Total Housing Units: 18,345 (Occupied+Vacant) Census 2010+permits Occupied Housing Units: 17,481 (=#of HH) Vacant Housing Units: 864 (Total HH-Occupied) Current Vacancy Rate: 4.7% (Vacant units/Total units) Sources:Johnson Economics,City of Lake Oswego,PSU Population Research Center,U.S.Census *This table reflects population,household and housing unit projections shown in Figure 2.1 We estimate a current population of 41,550 residents, living in 17,481 households (excluding group living situations).Average household size is 2.4 persons. There are an estimated 18,345 housing units in the city, indicating an estimated vacancy rate of 5%. This includes units vacant for any reason, not just those which are currently for sale or rent. ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND Following the establishment of the current housing profile, the current housing demand was determined based upon the age and income characteristics of current households. The analysis considered the propensity of households in specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home(tenure), in order to derive the current demand for ownership and rental housing units and the appropriate housing cost level of each.This is done by combining data on tenure by age and tenure by income from the Census American Community Survey(tables: B25007 and B25118, 2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates). The analysis takes into account the average amount that owners and renters tend to spend on housing costs. For instance, lower income households tend to spend more of their total income on housing, while upper income households spend less on a percentage basis. In this case, it was assumed that households in lower income bands would prefer housing costs at no more than 30% of gross income (a common measure of affordability). Higher income households pay a decreasing share down to 20%for the highest income households. While the Census estimates that most low-income households pay more than 30%of their income for housing,this is an estimate of current preferred demand. It assumes that low-income households prefer (or demand) units affordable to them at no more than 30%of income, rather than more expensive units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 20 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Figure 4.2 presents a snapshot of current housing demand (i.e. preferences)equal to the number of households in the study area (17,481).The breakdown of tenure(owners vs. renters) reflects data from the 2021 ACS. FIGURE 4.2: ESTIMATE OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Price Range #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0k-$80k 330 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% $80k-$130k 267 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% $130k-$180k 357 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% $180k-$250k 636 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% $250k-$350k 1,051 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% $350k-$440k 1,147 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,109 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 892 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 1,827 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 4,577 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 12,191 %of All: 69.7% Rental Rent Level #of Income Range /of Cumulative Households Total $0-$400 348 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% $400-$700 383 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% $700-$900 554 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% $900-$1300 621 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% $1300-$1800 837 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% $1800-$2200 764 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 505 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 410 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 271 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 596 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Households Totals: 5,290 %of All: 30.3% 17,481 Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Claritas.,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25007,B25106, B25118(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) Claritas: Estimates of income by age of householder The estimated home price and rent ranges are irregular because they are mapped to the affordability levels of the Census income level categories. For instance, an affordable home for those in the lowest income category (less than $15,000)would have to cost$80,000 or less.Affordable rent for someone in this category would be$400 or less. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%(somewhat less than the current market rate, but in line with historic norms),with 10%down payment.These assumptions are designed to represent prudent lending and borrowing levels for ownership households. The 30-year mortgage commonly serves as the standard. In the 2000's, down payment requirements fell significantly, but lending standards tightened significantly since the 2008/9 credit crisis. While 20% is often cited as the standard for most buyers,it is common for homebuyers,particularly first-time buyers,to pay significantly less than this using available programs. Interest rates are subject to disruption from national and global economic forces, and therefore impossible to forecast beyond the short term.The 5% used here is roughly the average 30-year rate over the last 20 years.The CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 21 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 general trend has been falling interest rates since the early 1980's,but coming out of the recent inflationary period, the Federal Reserve has raised its base rate significantly in recent years and mortgage rates have also climbed to levels not seen in almost 20 years. CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of current housing demand(Figure 4.2)represents the preference and affordability levels of households. In reality, the current housing supply (Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below) differs from this profile, meaning that some households may find themselves in housing units which are not optimal, either not meeting the household's own/rent preference,or being unaffordable(requiring more than 30%of gross income). A profile of current housing supply in Lake Oswego was estimated based on permit data from the City of Lake Oswego and Census data from the most recently available 2021 ACS, which provides a profile of housing types (single family, attached, manufactured home, etc.), tenure, housing values, and rent levels. The 5-year estimates from the ACS were used because margin of error is lower than 1-year ACS estimates. • An estimated 71% of housing units are ownership units, while an estimated 29% of housing units are rental units. This is slightly different than the estimated demand profile shown in Figure 4.2, which estimated a bit higher demand for rental units given local income and age levels.The inventory includes vacant units. • 81%of ownership units are detached homes,and very few are manufactured homes. 17.5%of rental units are either single family homes or manufactured homes,while 59%are in structures of 5 units or more. • Of total housing units, an estimated 63%are detached homes or manufactured homes. 37%are some sort of attached unit type. FIGURE 4.3: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY BY TYPE(2023) Lake Oswego, Oregon 100% 81% ■Owner 80% 59% Rental E 60% 0 v cp 40% 18% 20% 10% 0 13% - 6/ 0% 5% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Single Single Duplex 3-or 4-plex 5+Units MFR Manuf. Boat,RV, Detached Attached home other temp Unit Type Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032, B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) • The affordability of different unit types is an approximation based on Census data on the distribution of housing units by value(ownership)or gross rent(rentals). • Most subsidized affordable housing units found in the city are represented by the inventory at the lowest end of the rental spectrum. • Ownership housing found at the lower end of the value spectrum generally reflect older, smaller homes, or homes in poor condition on small or irregular lots. It is important to note that these represent estimates of CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 22 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 current property value or current housing cost to the owner,not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. These properties may be candidates for redevelopment when next they sell but are currently estimated to have low value. FIGURE 4.4: PROFILE OF CURRENT HOUSING SUPPLY,ESTIMATED AFFORDABILITY IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Ownership Housing Rental Housing Affordable Estimated Affordable Estimated Income Range Share of Total Units Price Level Units Rent Level Units Less than$15,000 $0k-$80k 135 $0-$400 70 I 1% $15,000-$24,999 $80k-$130k 129 $400-$700 43 I 1% $25,000-$34,999 $130k-$180k 170 $700-$900 106 I 2% $35,000-$49,999 $180k-$250k 406 $900-$1300 518 • 5% $50,000-$74,999 $250k-$350k 735 $1300-$1800 1,852 14% $75,000-$99,999 $350k-$440k 839 $1800-$2200 1,289 12% $100,000-$124,999 $440k-$510k 753 $2200-$2500 602 7% $125,000-$149,999 $510k-$560k 924 $2500-$2800 223 6% $150,000-$199,999 $560k-$680k 2,217 $2800-$3400 229 13% $200,000+ $680k+ 6,700 $3400+ 404 39% 71% 13,008 29% 5,337 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sources: US Census, PSU Population Research Center,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Census Tables: B25004,B25032, B25063,B25075(2021 ACS 5-yr Estimates) ■ Most housing (58%) in Lake Oswego is found in price and rent levels affordable to those earning at least $125,000 per year,which is close to the city's median income.There is very little housing available to those in lower income segments. Over 90% of housing is affordable to those earning at least $50,000, and only 9% affordable to those earning less than this. COMPARISON OF CURRENT HOUSING DEMAND WITH CURRENT SUPPLY A comparison of estimated current housing demand with the existing supply identifies the existing discrepancies between needs and the housing which is currently available. The estimated number of units outnumbers the number of households by roughly 865 units, indicating an average vacancy rate of 4.7%. In general, this identifies that there is currently support for more ownership housing at lower price points, while the upper end of the market is generally well supplied.This is because most housing in Lake Oswego is clustered at higher property values, which matches the community's high average household income but leaves some households underserved. The analysis finds that the current market rates for most rental units are in the $1,300 to $2,200/month range. Therefore,this is where most of the rental unit supply is currently clustered. However,the greatest unmet need is found at the lower end of the income scale, where many current renters pay more than 30% of their income in housing costs. Rentals at the most expensive levels generally represent single family homes for rent. Figures 4.5 and 4.6 present this information in chart form,comparing the estimated number of households in given income ranges,and the supply of units currently valued(ownership)or priced(rentals)within those income ranges. The data is presented for owner and renter households. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 23 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 FIGURE 4.5:COMPARISON OF OWNER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Owner Households vs.Current Units 7,000 6,000 •Est.Owner Households E 5,000 Units Valued at Income Level - 4,000 0 v 3,000 0 2,000 1,000 , xt 0 M •■ . •. ■ c� to p O, 0 0. O C At' tc) '1, C 0 0tzy LS tz zz z ry t?' t?' O U 0 ' L a 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0r O O O O �0 O O OO O O55 h � c3, 1 0 O'1ti q 'z'' 4t 0 1, � 'ti t t Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS FIGURE 4.6:COMPARISON OF RENTER HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS TO ESTIMATED SUPPLY AFFORDABLE AT THOSE INCOME LEVELS IN LAKE OSWEGO(2023) Renter Households vs.Current Units 2,000 •Est.Renter Households v, Y E1,500 Units Affordable at Income Level N 1,000 v UI 7 "5 500 I 0 5ra 000 O00 O00 O00 O00 000 000 000 ti ti ti Income Cohorts Sources: PSU Population Research Center,City of Lake Oswego,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The home value and rent segments which show a "surplus"in Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate where current property values and market rent levels are in Lake Oswego. Housing prices and rent levels will tend to congregate around those levels.These levels will be too costly for some(i.e.require more than 30%in gross income)or"too affordable" for others(i.e.they have income levels that indicate they could afford more expensive housing if they chose). In general, these findings demonstrate that there are few lower-value housing opportunities for many owner households, and potential support for some less expensive types of ownership housing.There is a need for more rental units at lower rent levels(<$900/mo.). HOME SALE PRICES It is important to note that the figures presented in the prior section represent estimates of current property value or current housing cost to the owner, not the current market pricing of homes for sale in the city. For instance, a household living in a manufactured home that has been paid off over many years may have relatively low housing costs.This indicates that one owner household is living in a"lower value"unit. It does not indicate that units at this price point are available on the current market. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 24 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 If this hypothetical household were to sell their home, it would sell at a higher price reflecting inflation and current achievable market prices. For this reason,many of the lower value or lower rent units found in the previous section will actually become higher-priced units when they are sold or become vacant. For reference,this section presents home sales data from 2022 to indicate housing costs for new entrants into the market(Figure 4.7). • The median sale price was$860,000. • The average (mean)sale price was$1,075,000. • The average price per square foot was$430/s.f. • The median square footage was 2,300 s.f. FIGURE 4.7: LAKE OSWEGO HOME SALES(12 MONTHS) Home Sales by Unit Type Home Sales by Price Level $900,000+ 319 $800,000-$899,000 66 20% $700,000-$799,000 67 $600,000-$699,000 56 8% $500,000-$599,000 ■ 39 0%0 72% $400,000-$499,000 . 31 $300,000-$399,000 . 47 $200,000-$299,000 ■ 43 $100,000-$199,000 3 Detached Home Manuf. Home <$100,000 0 Attached Home Condo 0 100 200 300 400 Sources: RMLS,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • 48%of sales were priced above$900,000. • 34%of sales were priced between$500,000 and $899,000. • Only 18%of sales were priced at less than$500,000. • Only 7%of sales were priced below$300,000. Affordability: As indicated, roughly 75%of recent sales in Lake Oswego were priced at least$600,000. Homes in this range would be mostly affordable to households earning at least $175,000 per year, which is well above the median household income of$123,000. Roughly 66% of households earn less than $175,000 per year, meaning that the bulk of housing supply on the current for-sale market(75%) is likely too expensive for most of these households. The findings of current need form the foundation for projected future housing need, presented in the following section. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 25 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 V. FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS- 2043 (CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO) The projected future(20-year) housing profile(Figure 5.1)in the study area is based on the current housing profile (2023), multiplied by an assumed projected future household growth rate. The projected future growth is the forecasted 2043 population for the City of Lake Oswego included in the most recently adopted Coordinated Population Forecast from Metro for all cities in the region. This was adopted in 2021 and projected a very modest growth rate for Lake Oswego of well less than 1%per year.' FIGURE 5.1: FUTURE HOUSING PROFILE(2043),LAKE OSWEGO PROJECTED FUTURE HOUSING CONDITIONS(2023-2043) SOURCE 2023 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,221 (Est.2022 pop.-Group Housing Pop.) PSU Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.05% Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro 2043 Population(Minus Group Pop.) 41,629 (Total 2043 Population-Group Housing Pop.) Estimated group housing population: 332 1.7%of total pop.(held constant from 2022) US Census Total Estimated 2043 Population: 41,961 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro Estimated Non-Group 2043 Households: 19,298 Metro Coordinated Forecast(2021) Metro New Households 2023 to 2043 1,816 Avg. Household Size: 2.16 Projected 2043 pop./2043 houseolds US Census Total Housing Units: 20,313 Occupied Units plus Vacant Occupied Housing Units: 19,298 (=Number of Non-Group Households) Vacant Housing Units: 1,016 (=Total Units-Occupied Units) Projected Market Vacancy Rate: 5.0% Stabilized vacancy assumption Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Metro,Census,JOHNSON ECONOMICS LLC *Projections are applied to estimates of 2023 population,household and housing units shown in Figure 2.1 The model projects growth in the number of non-group households over 20 years of over 1,800 households, but with accompanying population growth of just 411 new residents. The difference is that the household size is expected to decrease significantly to 2.2 persons,meaning more smaller households to house the same population. (The number of households differs from the number of housing units, because the total number of housing units includes a percentage of vacancy. Projected housing unit needs are discussed below.) 7 The projected growth and housing need presented in this report conforms to the statutory approach to completing a Goal 10 needs analysis. To comply with state rules,the analysis relies on estimates of current population from the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC)and projections of future growth from the most recent Metro distributed forecast.The forecasted growth rates from Metro are very low in comparison to rates experienced during the past 20 years and low in comparison to projected rates in other parts of the region and state. The City's population increased by about 18%,with an average annual growth rate of about 1%between 2000 and 2020 per year. During the next 20 years,forecasted growth is projected to be a total of 1%,with an average annual growth rate of just 0.05%per year.Many community members in Lake Oswego,including members of the project Task Force,as well as members of the City's Planning Commission and City Council, have questioned the accuracy of the projected growth rates,but no contrary expert testimony of the population forecast is presented.To the extent the City grows faster than the growth rates predict,the deficit of land available to accommodate housing over the long term will be more acute and the City will consume remaining buildable land more quickly,potentially running out of buildable land within several years. Per ORS 197.297,the City is required to adopt an updated HNA at least once every six years;thus,the City will have an additional opportunity in 2029 to correct the population forecast,if the projections in the 2023 HNA are notably different than observed trends.It will be important for the City to coordinate closely with Metro as it updates its growth rates and to continue to monitor actual growth patterns,as well as the supply of buildable land in the City.To the extent growth occurs at a faster rate than projected,the City will need to identify and implement strategies to address a potential shortage in available land for housing in the near term. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 26 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 PROJECTION OF FUTURE HOUSING UNIT DEMAND(2043) The profile of future housing demand was derived using the same methodology used to produce the estimate of current housing need. This estimate includes current and future households but does not include a vacancy assumption. The vacancy assumption is added in the subsequent step. Therefore,the need identified below is the total need for actual households in occupied units(19,298). The analysis considered the propensity of households at specific age and income levels to either rent or own their home, in order to derive the future need for ownership and rental housing units, and the affordable cost level of each.The projected need is for all 2043 households and therefore includes the needs of current households. The price levels presented here use the same assumptions regarding the amount of gross income applied to housing costs,from 30%for low income households down to 20%for the highest income households. The affordable price level for ownership housing assumes 30-year amortization,at an interest rate of 5%,with 10% down payment. Because of the impossibility of predicting variables such as interest rates 20 years into the future, these assumptions were kept constant from the estimation of current housing demand. Income levels and price levels are presented in 2023 dollars. Figure 5.2 presents the projected occupied future housing demand(current and new households,without vacancy) in 2043. FIGURE 5.2: PROJECTED OCCUPIED FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND(2043),LAKE OSWEGO Ownership #of Price Range Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $ok-$80k 364 Less than$15,000 2.7% 2.7% Extremely <30%MFI $80k-$130k 295 $15,000-$24,999 2.2% 4.9% Low Income $130k-$180k 394 $25,000-$34,999 2.9% 7.8% Very Low <50%MFI $180k-$250k 702 $35,000-$49,999 5.2% 13.0% Income $250k-$350k 1,160 $50,000-$74,999 8.6% 21.7% Low Income <80%MEI $350k-$440k 1,266 $75,000-$99,999 9.4% 31.1% $440k-$510k 1,224 $100,000-$124,999 9.1% 40.2% $510k-$560k 984 $125,000-$149,999 7.3% 47.5% $560k-$680k 2,017 $150,000-$199,999 15.0% 62.5% $680k+ 5,053 $200,000+ 37.5% 100.0% Totals: 13,458 %of All: 69.7% Rental #of Rent Level Income Range %of Total Cumulative Households $0-$400 385 Less than$15,000 6.6% 6.6% Extremely <30%MFI $400-$700 423 $15,000-$24,999 7.2% 13.8% Low Income $700-$900 611 $25,000-$34,999 10.5% 24.3% Very Low <50%MEI $900-$1300 686 $35,000-$49,999 11.7% 36.0% Income $1300-$1800 924 $50,000-$74,999 15.8% 51.9% Low Income <80%MEI $1800-$2200 843 $75,000-$99,999 14.4% 66.3% $2200-$2500 558 $100,000-$124,999 9.6% 75.9% $2500-$2800 453 $125,000-$149,999 7.8% 83.6% $2800-$3400 299 $150,000-$199,999 5.1% 88.7% $3400+ 658 $200,000+ 11.3% 100.0% All Units Totals: 5,840 %of All: 30.3% 19,298 Sources: Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 27 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 The number of households across the income spectrum seeking a range of both ownership and rental housing is anticipated to grow. It is projected that the homeownership rate in Lake Oswego will fall somewhat over the next 20 years to under 70%from 71%. COMPARISON OF FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND TO CURRENT HOUSING INVENTORY The profile of occupied future housing demand presented above(Figure 5.2)was compared to the current housing inventory presented in the previous section to determine the total future need for new housing units by type and price range(Figure 5.3). This estimate includes a vacancy assumption. As reflected by the most recent Census data, and as is common in most communities, the vacancy rate for rental units is typically higher than that for ownership units. An average vacancy rate of 5%is assumed for the purpose of this analysis. FIGURE 5.3: PROJECTED FUTURE NEED FOR NEW HOUSING UNITS(2043),LAKE OSWEGO OWNERSHIP HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: 2-unit Detached Attached plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 708 132 31 57 92 3 0 1,024 52.0% Percentage: 69.2% 12.9% 3.1% 5.6% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 100% RENTAL HOUSING Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 52 87 73 148 585 0 0 944 48.0% Percentage: 5.5% 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100% TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: 2-unit Detached Attached plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% Sources: PSU,City of Lake Oswego,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • The results show a need for 1,968 new housing units by 2043. • Of the new units needed, roughly 52% are projected to be ownership units, while 48% are projected to be rental units.This represents more renters than the estimated tenure split, but it is projected that more rental units will need to be added to correct the current modest deficit of rental units, plus the future ownership rate will fall slightly. This results in a proportionately greater share of future units being rental, rather than ownership units. • There is some need for new ownership housing at the middle to low-end of the pricing spectrum. But income trends suggest that the greatest demand will remain in the upper-middle price ranges($300k to$600k). • The greatest need for rental units is found at the lowest and some higher price points. Market rents are currently clustered in the $1,300 to$2,200 range in current dollars. Therefore, most units are to be found in this range. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 28 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 ■ There is insufficient rental housing for the lowest income households making $35,000 or less or detached single-family homes for rent. Many households will need rent levels lower than the market rate in order to maintain housing costs that are affordable(see more detail below). Needed Unit Types The mix of needed unit types shown in Figure 5.3 reflects both past trends and anticipated future trends. Single detached units are expected to continue to make up a large share of new housing development for ownership households over the next 20 years. However,an increasing share of new needed units is anticipated to be attached housing types to accommodate renters and first-time home buyers. ■ 39% of the new units are projected to be single detached homes or new manufactured homes, while 61% is projected to be some form of attached housing. ■ Single attached units(townhomes on individual lots)are projected to meet roughly 11%of future need. These are defined as units on separate tax lots,attached by a wall but separately metered,the most common example being townhome units. ■ Duplex,triplex,and four-plex units are projected to represent a growing 16%of the total need, reflecting new state rules for middle housing zoning. Duplex units would include a detached single-family home with an accessory dwelling unit on the same lot, or with a separate unit in the home (for instance, a rental basement unit.) ■ 34%of all needed units are projected to be multi-family in structures of 5+attached units. ■ Less than 1% of new needed units are projected to be manufactured home units, which meet the needs of some low-income households for both ownership and rental. ■ Of ownership units, 69% are projected to be single detached homes or manufactured homes, and 31% are projected to be attached forms. ■ Nearly all new rental units are projected to be found in new attached buildings, with 62% projected in rental properties of 5 or more units, and 33% in other attached housing forms. Only 5.5% of new rental units are projected to be detached homes, including manufactured homes. Group Housing Needs:There is an estimated population of 332 individuals living in group housing in 2043, based on an assumption that the share of the population living in group quarters (1.7%) remains stable from current levels. This would represent an increase of just a few people living in group quarters, as forecasted population growth is modest. In Lake Oswego, the Census estimates that nearly all of Lake Oswego's group housing population lives in nursing facilities. NEEDED AFFORDABILITY LEVELS Figure 5.4 presents the estimated need for net new housing units by major income segment,based on the projected demographics of new households to the market area.The needed affordability levels presented here are based on current dollars. Figure 5.4 also discusses the housing types typically attainable by residents at these income levels. Note that Figure 5.4 presents the official state measure of "low income" used to set rent and income limits for various affordable housing programs. This estimate via OHCS and HUD are based on an estimate of median income in Clackamas County of$106k in 2022, based on a family of four,while the median income in Lake Oswego was a higher$123k. For this analysis,the estimated Median Family Income(MFI)for a family of four($106k)was adjusted to match the average household size in Lake Oswego of 2.4 persons ($89.5k) so that the estimates presented below reflect the city average. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 29 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Figure 5.4 presents some of the types of housing product that might commonly serve households in these income ranges. Many households below 60% MFI or even higher income will require some sort of subsidized affordable unit or voucher to find housing affordability.Those at 60%to 100%MFI may find housing in older and substandard market rate rentals, manufactured homes,and middle housing types. FIGURE 5.4: PROJECTED NEED FOR NEW HOUSING AT DIFFERENT INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Household Income Segment Income Level Owner Renter Total Share Common Housing Product (Rounded) Units Units Government-subsidized;Voucher; Extremely Low Inc. <30%MR <$27,500 56 149 205 10% Shelter;Transitional Aging/substandard rentals; Very Low Income 30%-60%MFI $27.5k-$55k 95 221 317 16% Government-subsidized;Voucher; Manufactured homes Aging apartments;Government- Low Income 60%-80%MFI $55k-$73k 71 120 190 10% subsidized; Plexes;Aging single- detached;Small homes Single-detached homes; Middle Income 80%-120%MFI $73k-$110k 134 172 306 16% Townhomes; Condominiums; Newer apartments Single-detached homes; Upper Income >120%MFI >$110,000 669 282 951 48% Townhomes; Condominiums; New apartments TOTAL: 1,024 944 1,968 100% Sources: HUD,Census,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS • Figure 5.3 presents the net NEW housing unit need over the next 20 years. However, there is also a current need for more affordable units. For all households,current and new,to pay 30%or less of their income towards housing in 2043, more affordable rental units (subsidized and non-subsidized) would be required. This indicates that some of the current supply, while it shows up as existing available housing, would need to become less expensive to meet the needs of current households. • There is a finding of new need at the lowest end of the rental spectrum ($900 and less). • The projection of future ownership units finds that the supply at the lowest end of the spectrum will be insufficient due to the prevalence of newer homes, many of which will be detached houses. (This reflects the estimated value of the total housing stock, and not necessarily the average pricing for housing currently for sale.) Ownership options and lower and middle price points are often manufactured homes, townhomes, condos, and small detached homes,often on smaller lots. Subsidized Affordability Housing Need As alluded to in Figure 5.4,some low-income households,and particularly the lowest income households,typically need some sort of subsidized affordable housing in order to find rents affordable given their modest resources and other household spending needs. Figure 5.5 below presents estimates of need at key low-income affordability levels in 2022 and in 2043.The table uses HUD definitions of Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Income, as well as 60% MFI which is a common affordability level for tax credit properties. • There is an existing and on-going need at these levels, based on income levels specified by OHCS for Clackamas County. An estimated 12%of households qualify as at least"low income"or lower on the income scale,while CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 30 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 9% of households qualify as "extremely low income". (Again, this is based on the official state measure of Clackamas County median income for application to HUD and other subsidized affordable housing programs, which is relatively high.) FIGURE 5.5: PROJECTED NEED FOR HOUSING AFFORDABLE AT Low INCOME LEVELS,LAKE OSWEGO Current Need(2022) Future Need(2043) NEW Need(20-Year) Affordablilty Level Income Level* #of Units %of All #of Units %of All #of Units %of All Extremely Low Inc. <_30%MFI <_ $26,800 1,492 9% 1,697 9% 205 10% Very Low Income 30%-50%MFI <_ $44,700 1,560 9% 1,771 9% 212 11% Low Income 50%-80%MEI < $71,600 2,075 12% 2,370 12% 295 15% TOTAL: s 80%MFI s $71,600 5,127 29% 5,839 30% 712 36% Tax Credit <60%MEI < $53,700 3,962 23% 4,483 23% 521 26% Sources: OHCS,Claritas,JOHNSON ECONOMICS,HUD *Income levels are based on OHCS guidelines for avg.Lake Oswego household size of 2.4 persons. ■ Typically, only rent-subsidized affordable properties can accommodate these extremely-low-income households and many other low-income households at "affordable" housing cost levels. Often the lowest income households must be served by housing choice vouchers and public housing. Tax credit projects are more likely to serve those earning 50%to 60%of MFI. Housing Need for People Experiencing Homelessness:Given the low forecasted population growth, Lake Oswego is assumed to maintain a fairly stable number of unhoused individuals and households over this period. Unhoused individuals and families may require a mixture of shelter types depending on individual circumstances,ranging from emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent subsidized housing. This population is a subset of the extremely-low-income population shown in prior figures. Agricultural Worker Housing:There is currently no housing dedicated to this population in Lake Oswego. Based on the assumption that this type of housing will maintain its current representation in the local housing stock, this indicates that there will likely be no new need for housing dedicated specifically for agricultural workers over the planning period. However,this population may also be served by other available affordable units. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 31 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 VI. RECONCILIATION OF FUTURE NEED (2043) & LAND SUPPLY This section summarizes the results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). The BLI is presented in detail in an accompanying memo to this report. The BLI was conducted for land within the city limits, assessing vacant and partially vacant lands based on residential zoning, and environmental and other constraints that may impact development. The following table (Figure 6.1) presents the estimated new unit capacity of the buildable lands identified in the City of Lake Oswego and within the UGB. Residential zones, as well as mixed-use zones that can accommodate some residential uses, were included in the inventory, and are broken into broad categories based on housing density. FIGURE 6.1: ESTIMATED BUILDABLE LANDS CAPACITY BY ACREAGE AND NO.OF UNITS(2023) ACRES ACREAGE Land Type Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Unit Acres Area(Acres) Area(Acres) Acres Capacity Residential 3,530 802 2,784 174 705 Mixed Use 490 96 397 10 146 Non-Residential 172 21 150 - - Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - - Acres Total: 7,339 2,193 5,230 185 851 UNITS UNIT TYPE Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Unit Housing Type Units Units Units Capacity Residential 648 39 17 705 Mixed Use 5 23 118 146 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Vacant and Partially Vacant Total: 653 62 135 851 Additional Capacity Approved Developments 2 23 341 366 Additional Middle Housing Infill - 110 - 110 TOTAL HOUSING UNIT CAPACITY: 655 195 476 1,327 Source: MIG • There is a total estimated remaining capacity of 1,327 units of different types within the study area. • The estimated remaining capacity for low density housing units remains the greatest share at capacity for 655 units,or 49%of the total. • There is a total estimated capacity for 195 middle housing units, including future infill in low density zones. This is roughly 15%of the total unit capacity. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 32 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • There is a total estimated capacity for 476 housing units in higher density multi-dwelling properties. This is roughly 36%of the total unit capacity. • 28%of the total capacity(366 units) is found in units already approved for development as of the time of this analysis.Additional infill opportunities identified on large-lot residential and some commercial lands account for an estimated 8%of capacity. See the attached Appendix for full Buildable Land Inventory details and methodology. The following table summarizes the forecasted future unit need for Lake Oswego. These are the summarized results from Section V of this report, presented here for reference. FIGURE 6.2: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED FUTURE UNIT NEED(2043) TOTAL HOUSING UNITS Multi-Family Single Single 3-or 4- 5+Units Manuf. Boat,RV, Total %of Unit Type: Detached Attached 2-unit plex MFR home other temp Units Units Totals: 760 220 104 205 677 3 0 1,968 100% Percentage: 38.6% 11.2% 5.3% 10.4% 34.4% 0.1% 0.0% 100% New Units Needed Single Detached Homes 760 ar Townhomes 220 2 -4 Plex Units 309 to 5 or More Units 677 Manufactured Homes 3 O O O O O O 00 cb 00 Housing Units Sources: PSU Population Research Center,Census,Johnson Economics Comparison of Housing Need and Capacity There is a total forecasted need for nearly 2,000 units over the next 20 years based on the forecasted growth rate. This is greater than the estimated total capacity of 1,327 units. Figure 6.3 below presents a comparison of the BLI capacity for new housing units, compared to the estimate for new unit need by 2043. It breaks down need by general zoning category(LDR, MDR, HDR). • The projected demand for low-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 192 units,or the equivalent of 38 acres of low density residential land. • The results find a deficit for medium-density housing of 249 units,or 31 acres. • The projected demand for high-density housing types is higher than the remaining capacity by an estimated 201 units,or the equivalent of 17 acres of high density residential land. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 33 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 • These findings assume that under newly adopted state rules,3%of available buildable parcels in the LDR zone will be used for the various types of attached units(single-family attached townhomes, duplex—fourplex). FIGURE 6.3: COMPARISON OF FORECASTED FUTURE LAND NEED(2043)WITH AVAILABLE CAPACITY WITHIN CITY LIMITS SUPPLY DEMAND Buildable Land Growth Rate (0.05%) Zone& Plan Inventory- Surplus or(Deficit) Typical Housing Type New Unit Category Housing Unit Capacity Need(2043) Units Avg. Acres Units/ac. Low-Density Single-family detached; 655 847 (192) 5 (38) Some SF attached & plex Med-Density SF attached; Manufact. 195 444 (249) 8 (31) home; 2-4 plexes High-Density Multi-family apartments 476 677 (201) 12 (17) TOTALS: 1,327 1,968 (642) 7 (86) Sources: MIG,Johnson Economics • These findings point to a need for additional residential land in a range of zones over the 20-year planning period. Available inventory may meet an estimated 67% of total housing needs over the first half of the planning period, but a deficit is projected in the long run. • A range of potential housing policies and strategies will be considered in future development of a Housing Production Strategy by the City, including the ability of future plan areas to meet the need for different types of housing during the 20-year planning period. CITY OF LAKE OSWEGO I HOUSING CAPACITY ANALYSIS PAGE 34 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 APPENDIX A: LAKE OSWEGO RESIDENTIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY Methodology and Results I July 18, 2023 Introduction This memorandum provides a Residential Buildable Lands Inventory(BLI)for the City of Lake Oswego, which will support the creation of a Housing Needs Analysis (HNA)for the City.The methodology for this BLI is based on the 2018 Metro BLI1 with further refinements through review and discussions with City staff. The BLI is conducted in the following steps: • Step 1: Study Area and Land Classification.This step identifies the land in the City that is available for residential uses. • Step 2: Constraints to Development. This step identifies constraints such as natural resources, steep slopes, and utility easements that limit development. • Step 3: Development Status.This step assigns a "Development Status" of vacant, partially vacant, or developed tax lots in the inventory. • Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity.This step removes land for future rights-of-way and other land needs to provide a net number of acres for each City zoning designation, then estimates number of units and mix of unit type (single detached, multi-dwelling, middle housing) expected based on the results of Step 4. Step 1 : Study Area and Land Classification Study Area The study area for this analysis is shown in Figure 1.The study area includes land within the Lake Oswego City Limits.' 1 https://www.oregonmetro.gov/sites/default/files/2018/07/03/UGR Appendix2 Buildable Lands Inventory.pdf 2 A prior version of this Buildable Lands Inventory included unannexed land outside of the Lake Oswego City Limits which has a City Comprehensive Plan designation.This land has been removed from the study area following APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 35 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 1.Study Area Map s SW STEPHENSON ST TF9� y `/// lif F,9 c.cR5' <FSS / R PKwY NHS �-�, �` ._ FAO J'- - .-4.-1p00 S� • ,, 3 � V � ,._f „k7:4, e \o k MELROSE ST �. , '5- I CO UNTRy C(UB RD R �� / 21L J D KRUSE WAY 0Q 40 A 4VE "' 3I MEADOWS RD , Q, l z oN, 'SW BONR/ p ,�EA Q- 4G .' t� 8 2 ZEI s l�0 0 a o s d 0 . - .,.,.,/,' . ‘ > j O� �EV.I gVV D. % PJ ' ' in '111VpPE��p�EJ c,NOREg(VD �cEV �•� �)155C4:1, ' �i SO�d` cc 0 OHO R/G GREENTREEP � p� FRi/I s_j OJT,OOK09 S- BERGIS,RD �, �$3 JC'E WAY , y-</ <,0 0 O 0 cc ,r z o O �! S'P ae =' m \\,OS PD�S OSF O�VA E Or�z CHILDS RD �� MON/. F n 90 (U �� of % Mlles-�- �, `PREGOt/ 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Study Area !r`: Study Area Lake Oswego City Limits Land Classification Parcels in the inventory are categorized based on their Comprehensive Plan and Zoning designations, property ownership, and other characteristics available in City/regional datasets.These classifications are described in Table 1 and shown in Figure 4. Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts The City of Lake Oswego's Comprehensive Plan Districts are described in Table 1.This is the primary basis for classifying lands into the categories of Residential, Mixed-Use, Nonresidential, and Publicly Owned/Other. Alignment with Zoning Districts are shown in the "Implementing Zones" column. Zoning discussion with the City's Housing Production Strategy Task Force and Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development(DLCD)staff. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 36 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 and Comprehensive Plan map designations are shown in Figures 2 and 3, respectively. Overarching categories of land and how they are considered in this inventory are described on the pages following those figures. Table 1. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Districts Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Zones Designations R-15 To provide lands for single-family residential development with Residential Low R-10 densities ranging from two to five dwelling units per gross Density acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-7.5 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential R 5 development with densities ranging from seven to eight dwelling units per gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. (1) The purpose of the R-DD zone is to assure that both single-family homes and middle housing are protected from noise,light,glare and reduction in privacy to the maximum extent possible during the area's transition to higher density residential use,to facilitate good architectural design and site planning which maintains residential choices of unit size,cost and other amenities R-DD Zone and supports the economic feasibility of new construction and development,and to assure protection and compatibility of all land uses,including commercial, residential,park,open space and historic sites. (2) The R-DD zone is intended for use in low density residential districts which are undergoing transition to increased densities,and which have scenic,historic, natural or residential features which should be preserved Residential and integrated with new development. Medium Density The FAN R-6 zone is intended to implement the land use policies of the First Addition Neighborhood Plan.The purpose of this zone is to ensure the design quality of proposed development in the neighborhood by: (1) Ensuring that proposed building designs are visually compatible with the character of existing structures,maintain adequate light and air between structures,and complement the neighborhood's architectural character. (2) Minimizing the visual impact of garages from the street, R-6 and to continue established alley uses and functions such as access to garages,off-street parking and trash removal. (3) Encouraging compatible and sensitive remodeling and renovation of existing residences. (4) Preserving the small-town character of the existing streetscape by allowing single-family and middle housing development that is human scale and pedestrian oriented. (5) Enhancing the natural environment of the neighborhood as one of the dominant characteristics. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 37 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones (6) Preserving FAN's historical and architectural character by encouraging infill development that is compatible in design character to landmark structures on abutting lots. R-3 To provide lands for single-and multi-family residential Residential High R-2 development with densities of at least 12 dwelling units per Density R-0 gross acre,and to provide lands for middle housing development. R-W Neighborhood To provide land near residential areas for lower intensity Commercial(NC) commercial activities that primarily serve the surrounding neighborhood,smaller public facility uses,and residential uses. To provide lands for a mix of higher intensity commercial General activities supplying a broad range of goods and services to a Commercial(GC) market area approximately equal to the planning area identified in the Comprehensive Plan,as well as residential, public facilities,and cultural uses. To provide lands for commercial activities which meet the needs of the traveling public as well as other highway-oriented Highway retail uses which require access to a market area larger than Commercial(HC) the general commercial zone.This zone is not intended for regional shopping centers. To provide for a mix of uses requiring highway access and Mixed which provide a strong visual identity.Intended uses include Commerce(MC) local and regional convention type facilities,office uses and Commercial supporting retail uses. Office Campus To provide lands for major concentrations of regionally- (OC) oriented offices and employment opportunities for a market area larger than the planning area. Campus To provide a mix of clean,employee-intensive industries, Research and offices and high-density housing with associated services and Development retail commercial uses in locations supportive of mass transit (CR&D) and the regional transportation network. The purpose of the CI zone is to provide zoning regulations for Campus the Marylhurst Campus in order to provide land where Institutional(CI) permitted or conditional uses can be provided for in a unified campus setting. To implement Comprehensive Plan policies applicable to the East End General Downtown Town Center and to provide land for a mix of Commercial(EC) higher intensity commercial,residential,and cultural uses and public facilities that support a traditional downtown commercial core. Industrial Zone The purpose of the industrial zone is to provide land where (I) general industrial development can be located. Industrial To provide lands where primarily light industrial and Industrial Park employment uses can occur in a campus-like setting under Zone(IP) controls to make activities mutually compatible and also compatible with existing uses bordering the zone. West Lake Grove To provide zoning for townhome residential,commercial,and Zones mixed-use development in the West Lake Grove District that Mixed Use (Townhome accommodates lower intensity commercial,public facility and Residential- residential uses;and to provide a transition between the Lake WLG R-2.5, Grove Village Center and adjacent residential neighborhoods. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 38 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Comprehensive Plan Implementing Zone Purpose Designations Zones Residential These districts are intended to supply services to a market area Mixed Use-WLG that is comprised of adjacent neighborhoods. RMU,and Office- Commercial- WLG OC) To foster a mix of housing,retail and office uses in a central location proximate to downtown and along the Willamette River.Commercial uses are allowed but are not intended to dominate the character of the area.Retail uses are limited in size to complement the downtown core and facilitate the development of neighborhood-focused retail served by transit. The design and development standards are intended to create a unique Lake Oswego community.The emphasis of the zone is on residentially related uses. The Foothills Mixed Use code provisions are intended to: Foothills Mixed i. Connect the FMU area with downtown,Tryon Creek,Old Use(FMU) Town,the Willamette River and Oswego Lake; ii. Create a sustainable walkable neighborhood that possesses a thriving,active,and comfortable pedestrian environment; iii. Create visual interest through varied building heights that are urban in character,yet include detailed amenities at the ground floor that enhance the pedestrian environment; iv. Create high quality buildings,of long lasting materials,to promote the permanence of the community; v. Allow for a mix of residential uses,with urban density,and neighborhood scale retail and office development;and vi. Establish a standard of design that reinforces Lake Oswego's sense of place. The Public Functions(PF)zone is intended to specify Public Use Public Functions appropriate land uses and development standards for public (PF) uses,such as government services,education,and similar activities. The purposes of the Park and Natural Area(PNA)zone are to: i. Protect,preserve,conserve and enhance natural areas, greenways and parks; ii. Permit a wide range of passive and active recreational Park and Natural Park and Natural uses,and accessory uses,on property for the future use and Area(PNA) Area(PNA) enjoyment of the City and its residents; iii. Implement Statewide Planning Goal 8,Recreational Needs;and iv. Establish a master plan process for park planning and development. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 39 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 2. City of Lake Oswego Zoning Designations Portlan-, _..a 5 College-5y. Tryon Creek I State Natural t Lt41 I Alt - Ci r.�' --' __ - _ Milwaukle a ', �t" 4, Heights Tigard pp '� , u + R-io-ri ! .,,,, , , ...:, HC R-5 ill III FII ,• R-6 Oak Grove [•I+ v R-ro R � 1 - �-1:11�a DEC 1 _ �RF.D -- F lip Bonita E SNt Ha i la RO _ i 1 , ,,PNA i ., •e eqo Durham Ig. • .0446 1 • ��. Rio .�R 7 5 �J �/ '- I4-iff, Concord R/.c / -r PF D •/ _-1 R.7.5 R-�5 "-Jk Park PNA Durham o r! R,no _'[• 'c tr, III ..y Club FOP R"i5 Jer 1. I R"'S Err,,NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Ern,HERE, Tualatin Rivergrove PNA- Gamin,SafeGraph,GgoTechnologies.Inc.METUNASA USGS.Bureau of land Management.EPA,MPS, USDA Mary S.You no Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Zoning Districts Legend Q l are Oswego O HC -PF O R-6 LAYER FT I T PNA =R•7.5 O CI =IP _7 R-0 0 ROD O Cl/OC C-7 MC -R-10 ®R'W O CR&D U NC LJ R-15 O WLG OC O EC =NC/R-0 O R-2 O WIG R-2.5 O EC/R-0 O OC O R-3 10 WLG RMU 0 0.25 0.5 1 EL GC O OC/R-3 EL R-5 1 = 1 Mlles APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 40 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 3. City of Lake Oswego Comprehensive Plan Designations 1 PortianU ��" 1 Community G.I 0 224] v College-Sylva Ry-5 - °i MI SF. s n 1 ' --- R-3' - _ •fl tr —Ar S I — — ED R7.5 /J u }� ily d t .- e��1 PNA Milwaukfe ner'PF � � •R.5 ei Heights Tigard r_'!r /y aJ� pi-R ao trvii , pp rq y 'y uc /, R o�I _ R-6 f/ Oak Grove Il 5 1r# V , 0 i 1 MC—_I - ,OC/R-; R-ta /rD EC .� R&D Bonita 1 R•ao R-7.5 % T. 11`®PNA R�5 4f�PNA u, F SP ir�PNA I: R r 'r i a o '- 1 �• g' R-7 S r j SW Durham Rd I �� R le -a° pt J Concord R S f P •I '�. Ri5 Feld � 4CI Look Park .1 . lrnllry frail Durham IP �—� R-io R-ao F PF R Idldtin R-ic J — r� ■I UL: tr. rtry Club ' P P. - Jer PNA 1 Esri.NASA,NGA,USGS,FEMA,Oregon Metro,Oregon State Parks,State of Oregon GEO,Esri.HERE, Tualatin 1,1 Rivergrove - 0 Gannon,SafeGraph,GerTechnologies,Inc,METI/NASA,USGS,Bureau of Land Management,EPA,MPS, I — J' USDA „ Mary S.Young Lake Oswego- Buildable Lands Inventory-Comprehensive Plan Designations Legend 0 Lake Oswego 0 HC =PNA =R.7.5 LAYER O IP ®R-0 =R-W CI C MC C R-I0 =I SP -CR&D O NC O R-15 O WLG OC O EC -NC/R-0 =R-2 =WIG R-2.5 MZI EC/R-0 O OC O R-3 O WIG RMU 0 FMU O OC/11-3 O R-5 =<all other values> 0 0.25 0.5 1 =GC =PF ER-6 Mlles Residential Land Residential Land is intended to meet the City's need for residential uses of various types. It includes land within the R-0, R-2, R-3, R-5, R-6, R-7.5, R-10, R-15, R-W, and WLG R-2.5 Comprehensive Plan designations, unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. Mixed Use Land Mixed Use land can be developed to meet the City's residential and employment needs—sometimes within the same structure. It includes land within the WLG RMU, CI, CR&D, EC, FMU, GC, HC, NC, OC, and WLG OC Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Publicly Owned/Other" land. More information about the assumptions for future housing development in these areas is found later in this report. Nonresidential Land Nonresidential land includes employment land and "Publicly Owned/Other" land, as follows.This land is not included in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 41 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Employment Land Employment Land is intended to meet the City's employment needs. It includes land within the MC and IP Comprehensive Plan designations unless it meets the criteria for"Public/Other" land. Publicly Owned/Other This category of land includes the SP, PF, and PNA designations, as well as land in the following categories: • Land in another Comprehensive Plan designation under City, County,State, Federal, or Special District Ownership • Land commonly held in Homeowners'Associations (HOA) common ownership, such as required open space. • Religious or fraternal properties (with the notable exception of Marylhurst University,which is accounted for in a separate line item). • Private driveways and ROW As noted above, properties in this category are generally not included in the inventory. However, some specific parcels in this category may be included in other classifications if information is available to suggest that they have development capacity for residential or employment uses. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 42 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 4.BLI Land Classification v..niuyc — r _ q ` .p,, ri f , _ 1 .--- .F.--.., , , . al 1 iradi) _ }��I 1......72. A' hir....� �^ u,: i17_ 1' Jy 'mil �% y . ...‘.,, f�y !'r �✓ �� V � '�� L�__11 Bath 6 °1''�ift • I lor% � Oak Gro 'I' ►►111►1►1 t�-, , J"11 >�►►11►1111� ___ IPT �` = ��dt.Rd '_ P al.' aryg,\ � � 1;V!il It'77 rin 111411 IlL 1) IF• - t),...4::: gm i' N 'If, II' la, \t. di .,i 1 �� �// ,,_iiii%r•_■ , , ,� 114.01/(r — is �� .==ter riAilelroffili Arpg,.ill 4. ._ om AI 11; -1.71 tewm-'17.1 , 1• 0" ' .1. . •r*L-1 Imr.- , ' '_ ire maw ma �V ii4 te. _ owl'ii _ _ '' ,vx E s 1 lillrrgrove ��__ ' .1 L 1 I ' U �� O IV 1 Miles ' C °REGOc' 0 d.25 0.5 1 �4 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Land Type ® Study Area Land Type Residential Mixed Use Non-Residential Public/Other APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 43 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 2: Constraints to Development One of the primary tasks of this BLI is to identify land that is constrained by one or more of the following physical constraints. Constraints may overlap one another spatially—in this case the more restrictive constraint applies.Assumptions for these constraints are listed below—they have been discussed with City staff but are subject to further refinement, as needed. Constraints are described in Table 2 and shown on Figure 5. Table 2. Development Constraints Constraint Description Developable Portion Steep Slopes Slopes greater than 25%. Density transfer resulting in 5% Developable the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Water Bodies Includes lakes, streams, other areas of open water 0% Developable FEMA Flood Includes Zones A, AE, and X. Density transfer resulting 5% Developable Hazard Areas in the construction of 1-2 dwelling units allowed. Greenway Protects land along the Willamette River. Permitted Management uses include single-family dwellings and accessory 25% Developable Overlay District structures associated with such dwellings. Includes Resource Protection (Streams and Wetlands; RP), Resource Conservation (Tree Groves; RC), and Habitat Benefit Areas (Tree Groves; HBA). RP and RC areas are tightly regulated,while HBAs are areas with optional resource protection incentives rather than regulations. RP—50% Developable Sensitive Lands RP—Density transfer possible. RC—0% Developable RC- Mostly applies to public land and open space HBA—95% tracts, which are not developable (PF and PNA zones, Developable OS tracts in private developments,typically). HBA- Incentives, rather than regulations, are applied to protect natural resources. Usually does not limit development beyond a modest reduction. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 44 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 5. Constraints to Development s TF SW STEPHENSON ST P� , 1!41 SS NF.S���� +-FR 00 1 1 zo �0 1 1 1 ,- ( �f __,,...:,,,,ZE.St- ---',-, ''' .., , (IIIW)ir% ''a re' x*-g.-ms-i....d:Aii ' i j a g' a : ‘ r w�` 1 I. ram KRUSE WAY�°_..O 5y. . 2�„ :3 ��y „ •yl• A AV y .. % D MEADOWS RD Q -� �I i" i :Inn.._ant 1111°•.,... 16 �.�`�..h, 432,4: E z 1 1 , 44 . C 4.e�1'~1 I ine �1VA," OUNTA7 ; i i ill[. 0�w-..SW BONITA-RD��'r ��CAE, Q � �' •1011 i1r/�� BEVD 414:�: �" -r / w , t A.). 1 -, ,;) ,,,,,„„,.- -4,AS.I.,-;., ,,-1...!'f.T...s.1. 1 -- Ir1 Illat PQ� PKEN E� P < ` .� I `ORE Jl 11 G ESN B VD O • V7, 11 pit 11 4 , S a r ; �._ .6 4 Ill • o GREENTREE P 2 , ro' FR• L , A _„;-.,„ S BERG, . .., cO , „.. iysA / , ,„,OOKD IS,RD 0 l '-.)7.74 // a,III I I I ,kcE Av r:_% el, III • �o i / I O -fr 1 1 ►-fl - 1 5 Q `rq• €ilb 0 0.25 0.5 1 Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Environmental Constraints ® Study Area Major Roads Taxlots Greenway Mgmt. - Overlay District Slopes>25% FEMA Floodplain Sensitive Lands Overlay Habitat Benefit Areas (HBA) Resource Conservation Areas (RC) Resource Protection Areas(RP) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 45 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 The BLI includes the following information for each tax lot in the study area based on the location of constraints. • Acres—Total size of the tax lot • Constrained Acres—Acreage of constrained areas, per Table 2 • Unconstrained Acres—Total acres minus Constrained Acres The following table shows gross acres of land in each primary land classification in the Study Area. Table 2. Constrained and Unconstrained Acres by Land Type Land Type Total Acres Constrained Acres Unconstrained Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 Mixed Use 490 96 397 Non-Residential 172 21 150 Publicly Owned/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 Step 3: Development Status Each tax lot in the study area is categorized as Vacant, Partially Vacant, or Developed.The following data is used to determine development capacity of Study Area tax lots: • Tax assessor data, including Property Land Use Code, Improvement Value, and Land Value; • City inventory of outdoor areas, used in identifying public and commonly-held open spaces such as public facilities, parks and Homeowners Association-owned open spaces; • Metro Vacant Land Inventory derived annually from aerial photo information; • Review of recent aerial imagery; and • Discussion and review with City staff and the Housing Production Strategy (HPS)Task Force. Generally,vacant tax lots are assumed to have development capacity equal to the area unconstrained by natural resources, minus additional set-asides for future Right-of-Way and infrastructure (see Step 4). Developed parcels will be subject to further screening for redevelopment potential, described in later steps. Partially Vacant properties have an existing home but are large enough to subdivide based on criteria such as parcel size and allowable lot size, as described in this section. Residential Development Status • Vacant. Land that has a building improvement value of less than $20,000, as indicated by assessor data. All land outside of constrained areas is included in the developable area for these properties. • Vacant—Platted. Vacant land that is part of a platted but unbuilt subdivision is included in this category. Platted lots are assumed to contain one unit each unless other information is available (see Step 4). "Developable Acres" is shown as "0" because they are treated separately from other acreage in the inventory. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 46 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 • Partially Vacant. This designation is intended for parcels with an existing single-detached home that are large enough to further subdivide or develop to provide additional residential units. While middle housing and townhomes are allowed in many zones,this analysis uses the minimum lot size required for single-detached dwellings as the basis for the Partially Vacant designation, as follows: o Parcels greater than 5 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Partially Vacant." %acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels between 2 and 5 times the minimum lot size: For lots with a building value below$200,000,% acre is assumed to remain for the existing home and the remaining unconstrained acreage is assumed to be developable. o Parcels less than 2 times the minimum lot size:These lots are categorized as "Developed" if improvement value is present or aerial photo review shows development. • Developed. All other residential land is designated Developed and has no developable area. Mixed Use Development Status Mixed Use development is subject to the same criteria as Residential Land. However, an additional screen is used to determine the likelihood of redevelopment of mixed-use parcels in Step 4, and assumptions about the residential/employment mix(see Error! Reference source not found.3) are a pplied. Mixed Use Residential Proportion Mixed use designations are assumed to develop partly with residential uses and partly with non- residential uses, per the following table. Table 3. Residential Portions of Mixed Use Tax Lots Mixed Use Residential Nonresidential Notes Designation Portion Portion West Lake Grove 50% 50% Townhomes only allowed with office use in the Residential Mixed Use same building (WLG RMU) West Lake Grove 25% 75% Residential limited to Boones Ferry Staging site, Office-Commercial per LOC 50.03.003.2.d. Residential limited to (WLG OC) Boones Ferry Staging Site. Percentage based on the size of this site in relation to the total size of district(see LOC 50.03.003.2.d for geography). Campus Institutional 50% 50% Multifamily development is limited to Subarea I (CI) of the Marylhurst Campus Zone. Campus Research & 30% 70% Assumption based on trends in this area Development(CR&D) East End Commercial 80% 20% (EC) Foothills Mixed Use 80% 20% Most similar to EC in terms of residential/non- (FMU) residential mix General Commercial 30% 70% (GC) APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 47 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Highway Commercial 10% 90% (HC) Neighborhood 50% 50% Commercial (NC) Office Campus(OC) 30% 70% Summary The following table lists the number of tax lots, total and constrained acreage, and developable area by land type.A map summarizing development status is shown in Figure 6. Table 4. Developable Area of Residential and Mixed Use Tax Lots Gross Constrained Unconstrained Developable Land Type Acres Area (Acres) Area (Acres) Acres Residential 3,530 802 2,784 175 Mixed Use 490 96 397 14 Non-Residential 172 21 150 _ Public/Other 3,147 1,274 1,899 - Total 7,339 2,193 5,230 189 APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 48 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Figure 6. Development Status of Residential and Mixed Use Land v 5QPr,J 7A„,a.,/`, • �ri— , - � - 1 r�SW STEPHENSON ST - Phi •1',} �',�. { y s I t � oA ; ., i_ 1 � ''1 It U. _ ! 11' , _ �• • rr • 1 -, 4-'"ROSE STw - • -•� - rrI ,, ` ii. r or `2I�'1 f`e -� ;B R`D�.: _.Z'�_ fah -- - - �� KR'USE WAYS J Qa / A AVE_ i E 1 MEADOWS RD c Y -�` - -•. - "' ,. i �� -a 'l. _ z SW'BONITA RD� y CAPS QG 1..�4, oOUNTAIA g(Vu� �. - �•1 -IC: �fl A I 2 ZFI p ,r \S ,/ ' 4 p z i I �1!hTit - A 0 - - - >o -tee i- 4`\> ei j1 ee Ea Mc� - a- , P� i` ,eSHORE}(Vp .1 w � N O �\ ;,1 III ! r �- S 5 1 I . + S� ORL �_, 'r o-. GREENTREE RD-- � _ f 0`� ,FR P' i �0 3 ;..- oar_ �� Pa V 1.7 i II Q ` Y `^„ J���pOK--aqt S BERGIS/RD = ; �- , ,,,. , -- • . . . : !1��� I a •1' o �. :. �2. ... a lip C _ • t Q s9 .L' �A F A ► - _` 1�• ,i'1 ! m w w. '��OS BDh�i' _ OSFMO i �0 �,r�;'"1 ^- CHI LDS RD ' v2' �11 tiT F' O I _ y . ./90 U —� o EG Lake Oswego Buildable Lands Inventory I Development Status = Constraints Development Status Developed Partially Vacant Vacant ® Study Area APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 49 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Step 4: Net Buildable Area and Unit Capacity This step of the BLI establishes the net buildable area of residential land in the Study Area by removing land needed for future right-of-way and other infrastructure set-asides, and by subtracting the non- residential portions of mixed-use zones.This step also accounts for platted subdivisions and other development with known approvals. Right of Way and Other Set-Asides When vacant land develops, land for roads, infrastructure, open space, and other needs reduce the gross available acres into a net developable acreage.The BLI uses the following assumptions to calculate net developable acreage for each parcel. • Residential Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties • Mixed Use Land: 20%of vacant properties, 0%of partially vacant properties Assumed Density and Housing Mix Table 4 shows the assumed density for various zoning designations in the City of Lake Oswego.This information is based on the minimum lot sizes, likely densities, and staff assumptions based on recent projects and comparable zones, and parcel-by-parcel analysis.The proportion of units expected to be developed as Single Family Detached, Middle Housing, and Multi-Family are also shown. Table 4. Unit Density and Mix Assumptions Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Residential-Low Density Zones R-15 Min 15,000 sf lot area. 2.9 2.9 DU/AC net DU/AC net 95% 5% R-10 Min 10,000 sf lot area.4.3 4.3 du/ac net du/ac net. 95% 5% - R-7.5 Min 7,500 sf lot area 5.8 5.8 du/ac du/ac net 95% 5% - Residential-Medium Density Zones R-5 7-8 units per gross acre, —8 du/ac per code. 5,000 sf min lot size for 90% 5% 5% single-family. 1,500 for townhouse. R-DD Buffer zone. 21 du/ac "'8 du/ac theoretically possible. 95% 5% - R-6 First Addition —7 du/ac Neighborhood (FAN) zone 6,000 sf lot area for 95% 5% - Single-Family. 1,500 for townhouse. Residential-High Density Zones APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 50 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached R-3 At least 12 du/ac. (3,375 —12 du/ac 70% 10% 20% min per dwelling, or 12.9 du/ac).Townhomes up to 29 du/ac R-2 Min 12 du/ac 12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-0 Min 20 du/ac 20 du/ac 60% 10% 30% R-W "'12 du/ac 60% 10% 30% Mixed Use Zones West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes —5 du/ac Grove "R-5 density or greater" Residential - 50% 50% Mixed Use (WLG RMU) West Lake Table 50.03.002-2 notes 35 du/ac expected in Grove Office- "R-5 density or greater" BFR Staging Site, 20%- 0 Commercial 80% nothing in other areas (WLG OC) Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes Generally applies to Institutional "R-5 density or greater." Marylhurst University, o (CI) Must have commercial on which is treated - - 100% ground floor. separately. Campus 54 du/ac for projects Research& that include residential Table 50.03.002-2 notes ("30%of the district, as - - 100% Development o0 (CR&D) "R-5 density or greater" above) based on LU 19- 0041 East End Table 50.03.002-2 notes —56 du/ac Commercial "R-5 density or greater." o (EC) Must have commercial on - - 100% ground floor. Foothills Table 50.03.002-2 notes —56 du/ac Mixed Use "R-5 density or greater" - - 100% (FMU) General Table 50.03.002-2 notes "'27 du/ac based on Commercial "R-5 density or greater." Mercantile project (LU (GC) Must have commercial on 18-0026) ground floor. Residential - 25% 75% not allowed "In the GC- zoned area in the vicinity of Jean Way and Boones Ferry Road." Highway Table 50.03.002-2 notes 8 du/ac (or R-5 density) Commercial "R-5 density or greater" for the 10%that may - - 100% (HC) develop as residential APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 51 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Zoning %Single % Middle % Multi- Designation Notes Density Family Housing Family Detached Neighborhood Table 50.03.002-2 notes 67 du/ac for the 50% Commercial "R-5 density or greater." that may develop as o 0 (NC) Must have commercial on residential (based on LU - 50/ 50/ ground floor. 07-0031) Office Campus Table 50.03.002-2 notes 21 du/ac for the 50% (OC) "R-5 density or greater" that may develop as residential (based on - - 100% Galewood Commons Apartments) Summary of Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Table 5 summarizes net residential acreage for both residential and mixed-use land in the study area, and Table 6 shows the breakdown of capacity by zoning designation. Land with a known development approval has been removed and is accounted for in a later step. Table 5. Capacity of Residential and Mixed Use Land Developable Unit Capacity Land Type Acres Residential 174 705 Mixed Use 10 146 Non-Residential - - Public/Other - - Total 185 851 Table 6. Unit Capacity by Zoning Designation Land Type Unit Capacity Land Type Unit Capacity Residential Land 705 Mixed Use Land 146 EC/R-0 5 CR&D 14 R-0 2 EC 67 R-10 241 GC 12 R-10 Comp Plan 14 NC 23 R-15 131 NC/R-0 9 R-3 28 OC/R-3 5 R-5 116 R-0 8 R-7.5 149 WLG-OC 7 R-7.5 Comp Plan 3 WLG-R RMU 1 R-DD 12 R-W 1 WLG-R 2.5 3 Total Capacity: 851 Units APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 52 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 7.Mix of Unit Capacity on Vacant and Partially Vacant Land Unit Capacity Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Units Units Units Residential 705 648 39 17 Mixed Use 146 5 23 118 Non-Residential - - - - Public/Other - - - - Total 851 653 62 136 Additional Capacity: In addition to the capacity listed above,the following categories of additional residential unit capacity have been identified.These are listed in Table 7, along with the expected mix of housing units. • Approved Development. Several parcels have land use approvals and/or are actively undergoing development. Where information about the unit capacity of these approvals is known,that information is used as future capacity (rather than an average assumption based on the zoning designation).These approvals are listed in Table 8. • Additional Middle Housing Capacity: Due to the City's middle housing legislation, most single family lots can be converted to duplexes or other middle housing types.The number of new units expected to be created through this process in the planning horizon is estimated at 1.5%of developed lots with single-detached dwellings outside of PUDs/easements.This totals 110 Units'. • Redevelopment of Commercial Land and Town Centers:An initial "strike price" analysis'found very few properties that appear to be good candidates for redevelopment at$30/sf. Value per square foot for many properties along Kruse Way and in Town Centers is generally$50/sf or greater.There may be some opportunity to utilize parking areas for new residential uses, depending on the City's development code and many other factors,though additional commercial infill is also a possibility. For the purposes of this BLI, no redevelopment capacity is assumed. 3 A previous version of this analysis assumed 3%of all single detached units, regardless of whether they were located in a PUD. Feedback from stakeholders and DLCD was that this infill assumption seemed high and was unrealistic due to the prevalence of CC&Rs in Lake Oswego. '"Strike Price" is a measure of land and building value per square foot at which a developer is assumed to be able to profitably redevelop a piece of property.The 2018 Metro BLI used a strike price of$12/sf for suburban jurisdictions—this analysis examine a more aggressive$30/sf and still found very few candidates for redevelopment. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 53 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 Lake Oswego Housing Needs Analysis July 18, 2023 Table 8. Parcels with Approved Development and Assumed Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Multi- Land Type Taxlot(s) Family Capacity Units Housing Units Units 21E18AB00400 Habitat for Humanity 21E18AB00300 Townhomes 21E18AB00200 23 0 23 0 [Link] 21E18AB00100 21E18AA00400 5400 Meadows [Link] 21E07BA00900 160 0 0 160 21E08AB02100 Twin Fir Road 2 2 0 0 21E08AB02000 The Boulder 21E07DD02300 [Link] 21E07DD02500 11 0 0 11 21E14DB02900 21E14 00300 21E14 00400 21E14 00401 21E14 00402 Marylhurst University 21E14 00403 170 0 0 170 21E14 00404 21E14 90000 21E14 900A1 21E14 900B2 Total 366 2 23 341 Table 9.Summary of Unit Capacity Total Unit Single Family Middle Housing Multi-Family Land Type Capacity Units Units Units Vacant& Partially 851 653 62 136 Vacant Land Approved 366 2 23 341 Developments Additional Middle 110 - 110 - Housing Infill Total 1,327 655 195 477 Next Steps This inventory will inform the Housing Capacity Analysis and Housing Needs Assessment to provide a picture of the availability of residential land as it compares to the need of certain types of housing units in the next 20 years. It forms part of the factual basis for City policies to address any deficiencies in unit capacity. APPENDIX A: Buildable Lands Inventory Page 54 AN 25-0007 EXHIBIT E-1/PAGE 1 OF 55 12.1 V o� 0 E 0 COUNCIL REPORT � — GREGO� Subject: Republic Services Annual Rate Review Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Staff Member: Amanda Watson, Sustainability Program Manager Report Date: September 25, 2025 Department: City Manager's Office Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑ Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: ❑X Council Direction ❑ Consent Agenda Staff Recommendation: Update rate schedule to adjust bulky waste fees and remove unneeded rates; otherwise keep solid waste collection rates at current levels for the next year. Recommended Language for Motion: Move to direct staff to prepare a resolution updating solid waste collection rates for 2026. Project/ Issue Relates To: Solid Waste Franchise; Sustainability Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable ISSUE BEFORE COUNCIL Review of Republic Services' 2024 franchise results and adjustment of solid waste and recycling collection rates. BACKGROUND Garbage and recycling collection services in Lake Oswego are provided by Republic Services, operating under a 10-year exclusive franchise with the City of Lake Oswego (Ordinance No. Respect cv el'erce. Trust. Se-iv 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 2901). As part of the City's regulation of solid waste collection, City Council is responsible for ensuring that rates are just and reasonable and adequate to provide necessary public service. The City's 2022 franchise ordinance provides for an annual service rate adjustment to provide the franchisee with a target return of 10%, within an acceptable range of 8— 12%. The process for establishing service rates is outlined in Ordinance 2901, Subsection 8(ii)(b), and specifies: "In determining the appropriate rate to be charged by the Franchisee, the City Council shall consider: a. The cost of performing the service provided by the Franchisee, including any additional costs (or savings) resulting from recycling. b. Anticipated increases in the cost of providing the services. c. The need for equipment replacement and the need for additional equipment to meet service needs; compliance with federal, state and local law, ordinances and regulations; or technological change. d. The investment of the Franchisee and the value of its business and the necessity that the Franchisee have a reasonable rate of return or fair operating margin. e. Rates in other cities in this metropolitan area. f. Other factors deemed relevant by the City Council." The services provided by Republic Services for which City Council establishes rates are residential, commercial, and industrial collection of garbage, recycling, and organics (food scraps and yard debris), as well as drop box service, on-call services, and extra container pick- ups. Rates for each customer type vary based on the level of service—the size of the garbage cart or container and the frequency of pickup. To assist with reviewing Republic Service's 2024 annual financial report (Attachment 1) and determining the need for rate adjustments, the City contracted with Chris Bell of Bell & Associates, Inc., a consulting firm with expertise in solid waste collection operations and detailed cost reporting analysis, to conduct the review and provide recommendations on rate adjustments. The report from Bell &Associates is Attachment 2. As part of the rate review, Republic Services requested that the City update bulky waste collection fees to list fees by item category (size or type), rather than list fees for each individual type of item. DISCUSSION As part of their analysis, Bell &Associates projected 2025 results for Republic Service's Lake Oswego franchise. The estimated results indicated an overall return of 13.65%. The increase in profit over the expected results from the previous year's rate review is attributed to a 14% increase in commercial revenue. Since the projected 2025 rate of return is greater than the 8— 12%target rate of return specified in the City's franchise agreement with Republic Services, a rate increase is not needed for 2026. Bell &Associates did not recommend that the City reduce rates to reduce the 2025 Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service N 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 margin to 12%; their analysis did not project expenses for 2026, but there are a couple of expected cost increases in the coming year, including an expected increase to Metro's disposal fee and a scheduled increase to wages in Republic Services' labor union contract in July 2026. Proposed Updates to Rate Schedule Although a general rate adjustment is not needed, City staff asked Bell &Associates to make a recommendation for a new structure for bulky waste collection rates in response to Republic Service's request. Bell &Associates recommended that the City adopt the same rates as Washington County, where Republic Services also operates, which uses a flat pickup fee and category-based item charge structure preferred by Republic Services (see proposed rates in Attachment 3). In 2024, the City Council approved a change to bulky waste fees from a per-yard item charge to an itemized list of fees in 2025. This change was intended to provide greater transparency for customers, however Republic Services provided feedback that having many individual rates made it more difficult for their customer service representatives to provide an accurate quote when people called in to inquire about a pickup for their bulky items. Republic Services is supportive of adopting the same structure as Washington County's bulky waste rates. The proposed bulky waste collection rates would see the service charge for some items increase and others decrease compared with current 2025 rates. However, the new rate structure would eliminate "1 truck+ 1 driver" fees and "1 truck+ 1 driver+ 1 helper" fees and introduce a flat pick-up fee for each service request, which will make it simpler for customers to understand what they would be charged for collection of their items. The City Council approved several new service rates for 2025 that were requested by Republic Services, including for contaminated recycling and yard debris front-load containers. To understand the impacts of these new service rates and given the high projected rate of return for 2025, City staff requested that Bell &Associates look into how Republic Services was charging these and other supplemental service rates for commercial customers. Staff also asked Republic Services to identify any rates on the rate sheet that were no longer needed, and any needed rates that were missing from the rate sheet. In response to this analysis, staff recommends the following adjustments to the rate sheet: • Remove rates for multifamily and commercial cart service summary billing accounts, which are no longer used. These rates were previously used for residential customers in some HOAs where the HOA paid for yard debris service on behalf of residents. • Remove the Reinstatement Fee which is charged when service to an address was stopped and needs to be restarted —this is the same as Cart Redelivery Fee and is redundant. • Pause contamination fees for recycling carts and containers. Over the coming year, Clackamas County will be developing a countywide contamination reduction program to comply with new regulations under the Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act (RMA). Staff recommend removing contamination fees for recycling carts and containers from rates in 2026 and aligning our approach with Clackamas County's plan during the next rate adjustment. • Update Extra Yardage fee to specify that the fee only applies to garbage, not recycling containers. Bell &Associates' analysis of supplemental service rates found a higher than Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service N 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 4 expected incidence of extra yardage fees charged to commercial customers. If a commercial customer has more than occasional extra recycling beyond the capacity of their container, the expectation is that Republic Services will work with the customer to adjust service levels as needed and/or refer them to Clackamas County for recycling education outreach to address the issue. • Add a standard container lock fee, which was included on previous rate sheets but omitted in 2025. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends City Council keep current collection rates the same in 2026, with the exception of bulky waste rates and the removal of several fees described above. ATTACHMENTS 1. Republic Services 2024 Annual Report for City of Lake Oswego 2. Solid Waste and Recycling Collection Rate Report for Lake Oswego (prepared by Bell & Associates, Inc.) 3. Proposed 2026 Bulky Waste Rates Respect. F-. P!'P„ Trust. 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY ATTACHMENT 1 Cit of Lae ...: ....-..,0-4 sweo 2024 Annual Report ,. . ^ , Republic Services of Lake Oswego : t • •I, ,.1..• 1 ` ' • I- ,• �I• • 1. -'d • 4 f ',..,...:44 ` 4._. 4i1.:..., ,,•_ _, .. .__....... ..‘ . ., ....„ .. . J11.. \ • .... . r) li' a 1 . 11 r, . .4 . • . . .. tr.... . _. . yilipr ,....,. t i 1 1:.--, 111 -• - y ris11 i rA , I I ,/, l• , 1 .Ni): .... I , 1 ram' .`I 1, ��4 •s• 1; I.` '•; 4`� ` —1.. ' _ -• !Air . L _____ .,_ -10.4 v VP i il I I I i kill 71 : 4., 14414 -. i‘ .47 i , - . +4 kNk ..... q - -,• ,),r• "--- / \• .... '.,111c-r.do.s / _ y� - REPO_BLIC ' �� .,�%.- 11% t e Cr i J. ii ly., , _ - — Nirri-.-----. —;zrzt ,- WIT MU i Iks' J 1 i i • 40, W O ; k••yuu,uu • .«sq�flF' , Table of Contents 2024 Annual Report Material Hauled 3 Material Destinations 7 Statement of Income 8 Schedule of Expenses 9 Customer Counts 10 Customer Service Summary 11 Employee Training 12 Community Outreach 14 Sustainability in Action 17 Recycling System Update 18 Recycling Simplified 19 Company Highlights 21 ' Printed on Recycled Paper 2 Material Hauled 2024 Annual Report Residential Material Hauled January through December 2024 Material Destination Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2024 Commingle Willamette Resources Inc. 704 715 705 766 2,890 Glass Willamette Resources Inc. 161 146 141 147 595 Garbage Metro South 22 41 22 28 113 Willamette Resources Inc. 1,898 1,933 1,983 1,995 7,809 Mixed Organics Willamette Resources Inc. 1,618 1,992 1,348 2,153 7,111 Totals: 4,404 4,826 4,199 5,088 18,517 CHART NOTE: All material reported in tons. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Commingle Glass Garbage Mixed Organics ■ 2020 2021 ■ 2022 ■ 2023 ■ 2024 ' Printed on Recycled Paper 3 Material Hauled 2024 Annual Report Commercial Material Hauled January through December 2024 Material Destination Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2024 Cardboard Willamette Resources Inc. 274 270 269 298 1,111 Commingle Willamette Resources Inc. 67 70 63 64 264 Glass Willamette Resources Inc. 31 43 41 42 157 Garbage Metro South - 7 - - 7 Willamette Resources Inc. 1,196 1,203 1,182 1,252 4,833 Food Waste Willamette Resources Inc. 284 256 248 300 1,088 Totals: 1,853 1,847 1,803 1,956 7,459 CHART NOTE: All material reported in tons. 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - I i ■■■■. _ 11111 11111 Cardboard Commingle Glass Garbage Food Waste ■ 2020 ■ 2021 ■ 2022 ■ 2023 ■2024 '4 Printed on Recycled Paper 4 Material Hauled 2024 Annual Report Industrial Material Hauled January through December 2024 Material Destination Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2024 Asbestos Hillsboro (Rose City) - - 3 - 3 Concrete S&H Recycling 90 118 63 138 409 Brian Clopton - 8 30 8 46 Dirt and Stone S&H Recycling 65 71 11 141 288 Dry Waste Willamette Resources Inc. 1,441 1,107 1,247 1,196 4,990 Metal Willamette Resources Inc. 6 - - 7 13 Garbage Hillsboro (Rose City) I - 5 - - 5 Willamette Resources Inc. 414 422 409 451 1,696 Sod S&H Recycling - 14 - - 14 Wood Willamette Resources Inc. 3 1 - - 4 Yard Debris S&H Recycling 119 46 9 56 229 Grimm's 5 - - - 5 Willamette Resources Inc. 7 3 - 1 12 Totals: 2,149 1,795 1,771 1,998 7,713 CHART NOTE: All material reported in tons. tw Printed on Recycled Paper 5 Material Hauled 2024 Annual Report Industrial Material Hauled 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Min•I Concrete Dirt and Stone Dry Waste Garbage Yard Debris ■ 2020 IN 2021 ■ 2022 ■ 2023 ■ 2024 CHART NOTE: All material reported in tons. t-o Printed on Recycled Paper 6 Material Destinations 2024 Annual Report Material Destinations Destination Location 2024 Brian Clopton Excavating Sherwood, Oregon 46 Grimm's Fuel Company Tualatin, Oregon 5 Hillsboro (Rose City) Hillsboro, Oregon 8 Metro South Oregon City, Oregon 119 S&H Recycling Tualatin, Oregon 940 Willamette Resources Inc. Wilsonville, Oregon 32,573 Total: 33,691 CHART NOTE: All material reported in tons. w 4. z ' __i .1.t.,„,,,c. ' e- 4 t -' s.. , rn J 2549 '? F - Protecting our 3 — I Blue Planet:,...e ,. V li! ICI to MI - - - 0 _ _ ___ -i. ..i6 4 0 ; 00 _ _ ..... f. Printed on Recycled Paper 7 Financials 2024 Annual Report Statement of Income For Years Ending December 31 , 2022-2025 4Y Financials 2022 2023 2024 2025 Actuals Forecasted Revenue $ 10,026,448 $ 10,289,646 $ 11,246,486 $ 11,625,493 Franchise Fees $483,985 $ 509,929 $ 555,443 $ 581,275 Cost of Operations $ 7,384,000 $ 8,241,697 $ 8,386,164 $ 8,679,680 Gross Profit $ 2,158,463 $ 1,538,020 $ 2,304,880 $ 2,364,539 Sales, General and Administrative $ 1,063,313 $ 854,969 $ 831,361 $ 856,302 Operating Income $1,095,150 $ 683,051 $ 1473,518 $ 1,508,236 Op Income as a %of Revenue 10.9% 6.6% 13.1% 13.0% Income Taxes $ 408,710 $ 192,074 $414,353 $416,273 Net Income $ 686,440 $490,977 $ 1,059,165 $ 1,091,963 Net Income as a %of Revenue 6.8% 4.8% 9.4% 9.4% ../ � .ttr�yy � � t71' i ; " }. C�• �.rt +� f 2501 w Mph• ' lk O. REPUBLIC ^` • z' * ,ke i •� ' _ i SEr.cES , '� 4-. ,ij .. ,, 4,,z... ,4,0,r.f.,,.. .. . „ lb,. ....., , __ �} , . -- ' ' ' _....._._ ''... 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S� Printed on Recycled Paper 8 Financials 2024 Annual Report Schedule of Expenses For Years Ending December 31 , 2022-2025 4Y Financials 2022 2023 2024 2025 Actuals Forecasted Pass Through Expenses Franchise Fees $483,592 $ 509,929 $ 555,443 $ 581,275 Franchise Fees $ 483,592 $ 509,929 $ 555,443 $ 581,275 Cost of Operations Disposal & Recycle $ 3,264,688 $ 3,982,026 $4,325,394 $4,476,783 Labor $ 2,372,396 $ 2,588,828 $2,590,358 $ 2,681,020 Truck & Equipment Expense $ 1,567,313 $ 1,450,273 $ 1,252,158 $ 1,295,983 Other Direct Expense $ 179,603 $ 220,570 $ 218,254 $ 225,893 Cost of Operations $ 7,384,000 $ 8,241,697 $ 8,386,164 $ 8,679,680 Sales, General and Administrative Management&Administrative Expense $ 864,885 $ 726,789 $ 749,199 $ 771,675 Other Overhead Expenses $ 198,428 $ 128,180 $ 82,163 $ 84,628 -les, --neral, and Administrative $ 1,063,313 $ 854,969 $ 831,361 $ 856,302 - MiliP -2 a4 t Printed on Recycled Paper 9 Customer Counts 2024 Annual Report Customer Counts Residential 20-Gallon Can 1,387 35-Gallon Cart 6,418 . INI ' I ill 65-Gallon Cart 2,680 �1 ■ 95-Gallon Cart 1,085 1 i' .( 1 Monthly 246 Multifamily 35-Gallon Cart 8 65-Gallon Cart 4 95-Gallon Cart 6 --- - 000a i Front Load 85 . Commercial . . kj;,•;„ WI. - . 0 35-Gallon Cart 27 w1 ..-A....65-Gallon Cart 34 95-Gallon Cart 98 Front Load 271 Industrial Hauls 10 Yard Drop Boxes 168 *�„ * ,1 20-Yard Drop Boxes 922 - _ f►- 30-Yard Drop Boxes 918 '4411tdinib 40-Yard Drop Boxes 186 - 0 CHART NOTE: 95gallon Residential customers are`grandfathered' in with there service level, but that service level is no longer offered in the City of Lake Oswego. S� Printed on Recycled Paper 10 Customer Service 2024 Annual Report Lake Oswego Customers "The drivers are like a part of the family. They are the best drivers around. So nice, they go above and beyond" Jennifer "Very happy with both of my drivers! Having physical limitations, I truly appreciate the drivers servicing my containers up at my house. " -Bea "Moving away and wanted to say that I will miss all of the friendly drivers on my route. They are all awesome guys!" -Morris "Wants to shoutout all drivers! Garbage, Recycling, and Yard Waste, They are amazing as they always speak when we are walking the dogs & very courteous during school drop offs to assure safety! Way to go team & thanks for your dedi- cation & hard work! You are appreciated!" -Andrew "Have to say thank you, for the team going above and beyond by being willing to look through our recycling container for contamination. You are all superstars!" -Lake Oswego Summit "We have the nicest drivers, for all of the carts! Thank you all, so much!" -Sylvia and Steve Customer Service Summary Vim; 40 customer complaints in 2024; all were resolved within 24 hours % 40 customer compliments (six listed above) ' Printed on Recycled Paper 11 Employee Training 2024 Annual Report Employee Training Workshops Advanced Safety and Driver Training IN — IMP ER ril. (`�■;J 741 Fsi7 (�') air , . air .;s 0. I, t.': . . . m•� r ✓ 11:11. ) 411111 ... _______ , .S 1 _ a 17-1--- . • 1161,n, :: r 1 2 34 /1 .r , I . '41 0 =- f 1 v„ , 1 1 it iv OF ,. 0 irit. - -1 wiesqv41 -411101 +�� Printed on Recycled Paper 12 Employee Training 2024 Annual Report Continues Safety Training Random Truck and Driver Inspections 4' m,„19.1 t4111 ' �.,. r - .ram. 'f/ it. ....,. r ^� !?. ..---. .- --fit.„ ,. „or 4 it , vi -,Ain i, . f.•V -- -Ittw„... ' VIM ` - • - _ It Only Takes Seconds+ . 1 _1 , - �a,nk y 1 �-�. '';* . . . 40:. -- 7 , . :- ,_,„ , ,. `.•- li r •. cif. .-ji r,1 ..?...1.c,1.'*. , ,. . - xt.`4''Z : ;', 'A.. 11yR4 !_ • • _ • r r • r ' - _.. - , i i 4w :}'{ - III s / — i-- ,sue' 114 1(ifi , . i-.' ' ,, + �. •w,�„_ _ _ ` - -b` -- . _ _ - " ��� Printed on Recycled Paper 13 Community Outreach 2024 Annual Report Community Outreach Touch -a -Truck Events .:r.. J.: Irv:. ... ..v„, . _ ._. - S ,. 1,—411I1,,, 'Cji '11 k. t ,^ l = _ 1 , r.'-,_ '___ f•--Tgi I • J '', , — ..-,_. -- r 1 -.‘ :1 1 '1 --- opulain: , N�. te 1 •al: /� � 70774i5� • ` �� lid � l ., ............ ___ ,_ r 41111N% oik .1 ...v.,, c _. . . , . ..* ._. ..10,f,.,.. t", — 'It \ s. -, ..,1,0Ni. .may +�� Printed on Recycled Paper 14 Community Outreach 2024 Annual Report Community Outreach Touch -a -Truck Events T ,..._ r(7 . _ ) __ .- ,... .._., _ \ r� ,e ` .I , i, t t. t'lliiiiPil . . ...11,- 11-- , I..... . ti ir .' iv r a IL, , 1 ' O li I WIT P.I '10 N - lir? F,i A ' 1 ' , . . ... 4, ,.. ._ . {.t. ; . i n iiii. : , _ .)t 11C-0114M7455 •k 1.4•-. 4"., :": -.' j : . 11. - 41111711r -: 1 �� y« r *� h,' 1 71 r..,17411" -47. pow r a 0i e-...AI : . ......--- -... ' ... f . , , \111111 , • .;)k' rat !- ‘-• '..; -.Pew- Idle si r 7' t ® E ea Irigi Ii: '•,, . is \lif 1.1 4 , -• r • +y low +�� Printed on Recycled Paper 15 Community Outreach 2024 Annual Report Community Outreach Sustainability Resource Fair TREF.c 1 LAKE OSWEGO ,.. mit ,,; z IUSTAINAäkIÜ ,,all, , ��°','.� •-' UR . ��FAIR , a 1 odis, - _ I um lip o 'CD ,_ _ , e , i : ) ,' 1 %.„..„__ . , i nT• •I ir-2 7 • a FI —s• _ 7_ iiitom MOM- Allri lr <: �R� REPUBLIC •4 �j4 SERVICES V in A� �,Istainabilit cfon Y tillail- +.j Printed on Recycled Paper 16 Sustainability in Action 2024 Annual Report Sustainability in Action Electronic Waste Recycling Events yr J , r I t .`i Alaimo plow i Off --'• a ( lir V t r * R� REPUBLIC L— , SERVICES Sustainability in Action ! aliV M 1 A / • - - , "IF.' littiPP2' W . 38311138 313 331,1 JI 411*\ -`, I I / \0 __ c i _ , , , „ h.," Ai , _ , , 7 ---,--,A., #1. , +a� Printed on Recycled Paper 17 Recycling System Update 2024 Annual Report Senate Bill 582 The Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act The Plastic Pollution and Recycling Modernization Act (RMA) will update Oregon's recycling system by building on local community programs and transitioning to an Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) model. EPR programs require producers of plastic packaging to financially support the recycling system. This incudes producers of plastic packaging that is not currently or may never be recyclable, meaning all producers help to cover the programs costs. This new incentive structure is meant to encourage plastic circularity and the production of more sustainable products. The law became effective January 1st, 2022 and the recycling system changes will start July 1st, 2025. This will be a rolling implementation, meaning some services will be added as funding becomes available. HOW IT WILL July Required for ALL as Ensure that commingled materials are directed WORK 2�25 regardless of to approved processor(s).(ORS 459A.905) size "r Producers Ensure at a minimum that materials identified in Required the statewide collection list are collected at w Will join a Producer Responsibility for ALL cities disposal sites(or more convenient locations) {�I Organization and pay fees based on regardless of required by ORS 459A 005.Note that materials the products they sell in Oregon site not on the list may be collected separately if desired.(ORS 459A.914) Producer Responsibility Collect materials identified on the statewide Organizations Required collection list for on-route collection.Ensure that for cities with commingled collection programs are only Will use the fees to fund and reimburse populations various local recycling service expenses over 4,000' collecting materials on the uniform statewide collection list.(ORS 459A.914) Implement new contamination reduction ,l Required activities from the DEQ program elements list Recycling Processing for cities with (ORS 459A 929)PROS will provide funding for Facilities over 4.0ulati00s ove ' these activities based on the population of the Will establish new permit and jurisdiction. a I certification requirements Required for cities with Use educational resources created by PROS populations (ORS 459A.893) Uniform Statew •. over 4,000' Collection List G Eligibility for compensation for local governments • If establish a uniform list of GI Optional for ALL cities or their designated service providers for specific materials that are recyclable t. y expenses,including transportation of covered across Oregon regardless products greater than 50 miles from a recycling • of size depot or reload facility to a commingled recycling processing facility or responsible end market. atiltt overnmonts (ORS 459.890) Will receive financial support to January Required Ensure that newly purchased roll-carts.bins and expand recycling services and address 2026 s ALL for Aties contamination for ALL ci of containers have at least 10 percent verified post- size consumer recycled content.(ORS 459A.908) t� • Printed on Recycled Paper 18 Recycling Simplified 2024 Annual Report Re c c in g SliMpli-Atots Republic Services collaborated with professional educators to develop a free Pre-K through High School academic resource for educators. This project turned into Recycling Simplified (https://recyclingsimplified.com/for-educators). Available resources include lesson prep for teachers, grade level presentations and lesson plans, children's stories, activity worksheets, student certificates, and take home materials for parents. All of this is provided to all Lake Oswego Schools free of charge. Accessible Value O O Engaging activities for learning at home Developed by teachers,vetted by Empowers entire family to make a parents difference by recycling O O 1-A Flexible and easy-complete any time, Easily access on any device Printer optional in any order too Printed on Recycled Paper 19 Recycling Simplified 2024 Annual Report Organics Recycling Organics recycling solutions for residences and businesses to divert food waste from the landfill. ID /It 0 COccursollection II O O til 0 Organic Waste Produced How 0 Anaerobic Digestion or Composting Process' Organics ,` ® 1 -T-4 Recycling I, Mulch Heat Electricity Fuel Works IiE V V i O Uevelop End = .T Use • ITN Upgrade Biogas to �; O Renewable Natural Gas OInject Renewable Natural Gas into Grid ✓ Free waste assessment by an industry expert ✓ Acceptable materials can also be processed into ensures you receive the correct size and service compost, mulch or other products for beneficial use, also reducing methane production ✓ Accepted food scraps include:fruits,vegetables, rice,grains, pasta, beans, breads, cheese,cereals, ✓ Consistent and reliable pickup schedule to coffee grounds and filters,tea bags, eggs and accommodate your needs cooked meats / I1111\ C ) 1 III@)j Cart & dumpster Meets federal Environmentally service available regulations responsible solutions irs t • Printed on Recycled Paper 20 Company Highlights 2024 Annual Report About Republic Services Republic Services, Inc. is a leader in environmental services. Our commitments to advance circularity and decarbonize operations are helping us deliver on our vision to partner with customers to create a more sustainable world. w 13M 94% $14.9B 5M 17K Customers Customer In Revenue Z} Average Daily Trucks Z Retention 0_ Pickups a 17 Q $1 .8B 4.7M o 1 ,000+ 208 Investment in People Positively Impacted Locations in Active, Modern Acquisitions Through Charitable Giving North America' Landfills' 76 15% 42K 86 inRenewable 11111 GHG Emissions Employees Employee c Energy Projects Reduction Since 2017 Engagement a Z Score W Lu J _I20% 50% 40% 48% 'a Of Fleet Powered Of Truck Purchases Better Safety Diversity By RNG EV By 2028 Performance' I } 6.3M 22 2B 75 $325M Tons of Organics Pounds of Recycling Planned vRecyclable Materials Facilities' Organics Centers' Investment in Four a Managed Recycled Polymer Centers u FORTUNE FORBES USA TODAY BARRON'S ETHISPHERE Most Innovative Best Employers for America's Climate 100 Most World's Most i^ Companies 2024 Diversity 2024 Leaders 2024 Sustainable Ethical 0 cc Companies 2024 Companies 2024 Q a CDP DJSI FORTUNE GREAT PLACE S&P GLOBAL Discloser 2023 World&North World's Most Admired TO WORK Sustainability America Indices 2023 Companies 2024 Certified 2017-2024 Yearbook 2023 Fiscal year 2023 data unless otherwise stated. I 'As of Q2 2024 I :than industry average over last 10 years based on OSHA recordable races 1 • Printed on Recycled Paper 21 Instant Account Access, Wherever & Whenever Want 24/7 support at the tap of a button? Meet your online account: Set up paperless billing & pay bills online Sign up for autopay Set up alerts & notifications Schedule a pickup And more! Q�RT Rsstlmb Businesses Communkes 1.r99631800 Robb.tow 3'�•-"1' a N REPUBLIC ucoun oaxrr ��4 SERVICES Dashboard Payments Services Customer Support Ct Welcome.Rabble Recycler Account Name:FELICE NIARCELIN Account It 308000073492 ..� �.•-..m � ® Account Dashboard - W^. I I ••-•—•••••• I � Total Balance, raymenr f8] 4 _ _... Pay Now rgmen 01/1821 sa .... — ...o.w. •w...�..�.. $22.50 NenImamDat• 0202t .. 0 . ..... 1 s..epse,g,pw.eas rmaenee.�y ACCCunt Dashooarc :,$)Setup Auto Pay O Add Paperless Billing m v,.. .....� ^"' $2250 • N1.1111111101MMEMill Visit RepublicServices.com/Account to sign up for the online portal or download the app. GET IT ON / Download on the 1► Google Play App Store 4kr WI REPUBLICS d.4 SERVICES Sustainability in Action f�� Printed on Recycled Paper 22 . - , .. _ .. ... . •',Ir.".'-, , • - .fr,4: . - - . "• •..re--t- . ecr,,. .: ,t,-. -.. - •it4- 4 • •0.- • . --4- -. . 4.Z4t 4*. '. '.• • •,14:11! • v.. A--.. . -:., ••'.-."t•: • - .- . so.. .....,., f j,,,. .r.1, . ;0='' t,- •_ .•-..e:,'„„.. . ' -.";.•'-i-;-4" ,1„,- .:. ' -tV. . . , . -.. .• C• ... .- st.,-a '-.-',-,'Vt.. --004; . . -- . . • . - - -- •.,1 _-•-.**Iires. tOr--,:. . . - , •':. . KL.,' :et:' . -- - . ...: - ;4.''... „,..-41,4,Z1*.'-,---", - •-.-.. •. 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' ••... - AAR" . - . • . ., . ... ... . •111111115, , Travis Comfort, Vunicipa Contract Administrator 10295 SW Bidder Road Wilsonville Oregon 97070 ilkwRitID REPUBLIC® SERVICES • Sustainabi i •ity in Action ATTACHMENT 2 (C-A E°4 2;4'4- Solid Waste and Recycling ,._, - 0 c-, Amp Collection Rate Report - - ..„_.... ....--, i-.. _ _ . — _... _ , . l' 7A.• ' -. ‘ . .„,--..--• ',--".-- -.- - -- - - _ - . - - _ -- - - • ,.., ...,.. ...,. ._• ...• _ c . - _ • ....4...- - 4, - i - -_ .. -7-. .,._ - i, -46-r "/ ; — . . 'trot 1'• ,.,. , -7,-lit. a•A ^5. __... •‘3.. 1.-- t 1 ,. ,....kt , ',.,-. _ • •it. ,,,Hill,"-",:.... .-,..0, . - -•;-: ilt- .4,3("."-" • ' ia It . r--- - ,_,?, - 1 - 4 ,,.- .,.., , ... tip, - pa, - 4_ : , ' .444' ,p,-,' -- , • •i,-• :A.",c, ', •s,,., " Fr,„.- I,, i,_ ',/•• *' ' - • ,, , "',,- *-: - - ---*** ' ,'. c--;%=f- . '• ';.:: - '-',•i,"-•its"?'• . 'fr-% - .. 4 --.611,- ; :-,-,,1,- 1*. - ? •, ' --:'''7 -_1,,.ei I „A--.,,:,,,i -: ,„-.• ,,,s, :„,-,-,,,.,,,,,P.... 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August 2025 2024 SW Rate Review Report City of Lake Oswego Solid Waste Rate Review Table of Contents Project Background 1 Annual Cost Report 1 Table 1: 2024 Lake Oswego Adjusted Franchise Results 1 2025-26 Collection Expense Increases 2 Table 2: Rate Impacts from the Metro Disposal Fee Increases 2 Rate Impact of Increased Collection Costs 3 Table 3: Revenue and Expense Comparison from 2024 to 2025 3 Table 4: Projected 2025 Results by Service 3 Rate Recommendations 3 2024 SW Rate Review Report Project Background Collection of waste and recycling within the City of Lake Oswego (City) is accomplished under an exclusive franchise agreement between Rossman Sanitary Service, doing business as Republic Services, and the City. As the regulator of waste and recycling, the City Council is responsible for ensuring rates are just and reasonable, and adequate to provide necessary public services. Section 8, paragraph B.ii. of Ordinance 2901, the City's Solid Waste Management Ordinance, states the following: In determining the appropriate rate to be charged by the Franchisee, the City Council shall consider: (1) The cost of performing the service provided by the Franchisee, including any additional costs (or savings) resulting from recycling. (2) Anticipated increases in the cost of providing services. (3) The need for equipment replacement and the need for additional equipment to meet service needs; compliance with federal, state, and local law, ordinances and regulations; or technological change. (4) The investment of the Franchisee and the value of its business and the necessity that the Franchisee have a reasonable rate of return of fair operating margin. (5) Rates in other cities in this metropolitan area. (6) Other factors deemed relevant by the City Council. Republic Services submitted its 2024 annual report to City staff in May 2025. To review the reported results and calculate the rates, the City contracted with Bell &Associates, a consulting firm with expertise in solid waste collection operations, to provide the City with solid waste and recycling consulting services. Annual Cost Report The annual cost report provides line-item costs and revenues associated with providing services within the City and combined line-item totals for their operations outside of Lake Oswego. The report format enables the calculation of service costs for each line of business (cart, container, and drop box). Cart collection is primarily for residential customers, whereas business customers are serviced with a container. Financial data was consolidated by service, showing the total revenues and expenses of the collection system. This consolidated report allows the calculation of the system's return-on-revenue and provides a measure of the adequacy of rates. Table 1 details the return for each collection service provided within the Lake Oswego franchise collection system. Table 1: 2024 Lake Oswego Adjusted Franchise Results Cost Component Roll Cart Container Drop Box Total Revenues $6,213,658 $3,313,466 $1,718,949 $11,246,0703 Allowable Costs for Rates $5,517,326 $2,604,221 $1,557,970 $9,679,517 Franchise Income $696,332 $709,245 $160,979 $1,566,556 Return on Revenues 11.2% 21.4% 9.4% 13.9% 'a, Bell &Associates, Inc. Page 11 2024 SW Rate Review Report 2025-26 Collection Expense Increases The current collection rates became effective on February 1, 2025, with increases ranging from 2.13% to 4.45% for residential cart collection and 2.47% to 4.57% for commercial container service, depending on cart or container size and collection frequency. The expected increases for collection services were calculated by applying known and measurable costs to the line item expenses. Republic Services has incurred the following additional cost increases for the current year. • The labor contract with the Clackamas County Sanitary Truck Drivers Association increased wages by 3.9% effective on July 1, 2025. • Administrative wages are estimated to increase by 5.0% • Inflation increased by 2.35% (CPI West- Size Class A all items) • The CNG Tax Credit expired in 2025, which will increase fuel costs by 61.6% • The Metro regional government controls the flow and cost of disposal within the Portland metropolitan service area. Metro has increased the disposal cost by $48.32 per ton from $113.82 per ton in 2021 to $162.14 on July 1, 2025. The disposal fee increases have averaged 10.6% annually since 2021. Disposal in the current rates was calculated with a disposal cost of$146.86 per ton. The estimated disposal cost in January 2026 will be the same as the Metro disposal fee at $162.14 plus the transaction fee. Table 2 details the rate impacts from the fee increase approved by Metro from FY18 to the current year. Table 2: Rate Impacts from the Metro Disposal Fee Increases Metro 35 gal cart 3 yard cont. Year Disposal % A disposal cost disposal cost Rate (22#) (300#) 2017 $94.95 $5.32 $72.55 2018 $97.52 2.7% $5.46 $74.52 2019 $97.45 -0.1% $5.46 $74.46 2020 $98.35 0.9% $5.51 $75.15 2021 $113.82 15.7% $6.38 $86.97 2022 $123.45 8.5% $6.92 $94.33 2023 $137.30 11.2% $7.69 $104.91 2024 $153.67 11.9% $8.61 $117.42 2025 $162.14 5.5% $9.09 $123.89 'a, Bell &Associates, Inc. Page 12 2024 SW Rate Review Report Rate Impact of Increased Collection Costs Table 3 compares projected revenue and expenses by category for 2025 to the adjusted amounts from 2024. Table 3: Revenue and Expense Comparison from 2024 to 2025 Labor Cost 2024 Adjusted 2025 Projected $ ♦ $ Collection Revenue $11,246,073 $11,662,080 $416,007 3.7% Waste and Organic Disposal $3,837,578 $4,026,395 $188,817 4.9% Recycling Processing $348,333 $348,333 $- 0.0% Labor $2,575,960 $2,653,442 $77,482 3.0% Truck R&M, Fuel, Depreciation $1,056,291 $1,128,771 $72,480 6.9% Equipment $149,613 $150,352 $739 0.5% Franchise Fees $555,442 $583,104 $27,662 5.0% Other Direct $228,047 $229,815 $1,768 0.8% G &A $928,252 $950,393 $22,141 2.4% Total Expenses $9,679,516 $10,070,605 $391,089 4.0% Table 4 summarizes the projected returns by each service type provided in Lake Oswego. Table 4: Projected 2025 Results by Service Roll Cart Container Drop Box Total Revenues $6,460,840 $3,424,639 $1,776,601 $11,662,080 Allowable Costs for Rates $5,698,718 $2,726,381 $1,645,506 $10,070,605 Franchise Income $762,122 $698,258 $131,095 $1,591,475 Return on Revenues 11.80% 20.39% 7.38% 13.65% Rate Recommendations The estimated results for 2025, as shown in Table 4, indicate an overall return of over 12%. The increase in profit over the expected results from the previous year's rate review is attributed to a 14% increase ($427,000) in commercial revenue. The current year's rate of return is adequate to keep rates unchanged through December 2026; therefore, no rate adjustment is proposed for the current year. Although a general rate adjustment is not being proposed, Republic Services and City Staff have requested an update to the bulky waste rate structure. To address this, Bell &Associates are recommending the adoption of the Washington County Bulky Item Collection Rates, which are considered fair and are expected to provide a more simplified and transparent rate structure for customers. 'a, Bell &Associates, Inc. Page 13 2024 SW Rate Review Report Note: A rate decrease of$218,200 would be required to reduce the 2025 margin to 12%; however, expenses for 2026 were not projected. If overall expenses increase by more than $218,200 in 2026, the return will be under the 12% return on revenue. Metro is likely to increase disposal fees in July 2026, and the union contract also has a scheduled increase in the same month. 'a, Bell &Associates, Inc. Page 14 ATTACHMENT 3 O�� EQ U 0 OREGOx4 City of Lake Oswego Republic Services Rate Schedule for Garbage, Recycling, Yard Debris, and Organics Collection DRAFT SUPPLEMENTAL SERVICE RATES Bulky Waste Collection Rates Type of Service Rate Extra large items: (entertainment center, sectional couch, king size mattress $39.00 including box spring) Large Items: (recliner, dresser, couch, other size mattress including the box $27.00 spring) Medium Items: (desk, bookshelf, chair) $15.00 Small items: (pallet, end table, bicycle) $11.00 Appliance items—coolant containing: (freezer, refrigerator, portable air $26.00 conditioner) _ Appliance items: (BBQ grill, stove, washer, dryer) $16.00 Electronics: (television, laptop, printer) $10.00 Tire: (passenger vehicle,tire off the rim) $23.00 first tire, each additional is $15.00 Pick Up Fee * applies to each service request $16.00 Pick Up Fee is applied as a flat rate regardless of the number of items for disposal. Pick Up Fee is billed regardless of whether the item(s) are onsite at time of agreed upon pick up. Standard Call Back rates apply if the customer does not set out as directed. Contact your garbage & recycling company to confirm schedule availability and pricing. Items not listed will be billed Standard Pick Up Fee and a Cost Per Item Rate based on the size/material type. 12.2 ..‘'k 0 COUNCIL REPORT V —w 0 GREGo Subject: Home Occupation Code Update Study Session #2 (LU 25-0002) Meeting Date: October 7, 2025 Staff Member: Michael McNamee, Associate Planner Report Date: September 26, 2025 Department: Community Development Action Required Advisory Board/Commission Recommendation ❑ Motion ❑ Approval ❑ Public Hearing ❑ Denial ❑ Ordinance ❑ None Forwarded ❑ Resolution , ❑X Not Applicable ❑ Information Only Comments: The Council provided direction to staff to ❑X Council Direction update regulations related to home occupations to ❑ Consent Agenda ensure that they are more clear, objective, and enforceable at their meeting on June 18, 2024. The Council held a study session on this project in April 2025. Staff Recommendation: Provide direction on code concepts to update the City's Home Occupation and Use regulations. Recommended Language for Motion: N/A Project/ Issue Relates To: Use-specific requirements in the Community Development Code for home-based occupations. Issue before Council (Highlight Policy Question): How to replace unclear zoning requirements for home occupation businesses with more clear and objective regulations to assure consistent application and ease of enforcement. ❑Council Goals/Priorities ❑Adopted Master Plan(s) ❑X Not Applicable ISSUE BEFORE COUNCIL Provide direction to staff on certain code concepts to update the City's Home Occupation and Use standards before amendments are presented to the Planning Commission for a public hearing. Respect cv el'erce. Trust. Se-iv 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This project would replace subjective Home Occupation standards with clear, measurable language that is easy for applicants, neighbors, and staff to understand and enforce. Council and the Planning Commission (Commission) have held study sessions to guide draft amendments. Before forwarding code amendments to the Commission for a hearing, staff seeks Council direction on the following concepts: 1. Whether to allow limited outdoor activity for home occupations. 2. Adding Urban Agriculture and Farm Stand as accessory uses in residential zones, along with related standards. BACKGROUND Current code (LOC 50.03.004.1.b) prohibits home occupations that "alter the residential character" or "infringe upon peaceful enjoyment." This vague language makes compliance and enforcement difficult. Council directed staff to replace this with clear standards and initially supported codifying the City's policy to prohibit all outdoor activity. The Commission subsequently held a work session on April 14 and noted that some outdoor activities are necessary for certain businesses and relatively low impact and requested alternate options that would allow some limited outdoor activity, in addition to an option that would prohibit all outdoor activity per Council's direction. Draft code amendments (Attachment 1) reflect both approaches. Staff also identified Urban Agriculture and Farm Stands as distinct uses that may need separate regulation. DISCUSSION Staff is requesting Council direction and feedback on the following concepts in the draft code amendments before they are forwarded to the Planning Commission for a public hearing: 1. Outdoor Activity • Option 1: Limited Outdoor Activity. Allows small instructional classes (art, gardening, yoga, etc.) with restrictions on size, frequency, hours, and holidays. Specifically prohibits events, rental of outdoor space, markets, or other commercial gatherings (see pgs. 3-4 in Attachment 1 for draft code language). • Option 2: No Outdoor Activity. Prohibits all client-related outdoor business activity (see pgs. 3-4 in Attachment 1 for draft code language). Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service N 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY Page 3 In both options, above, outdoor activity by the business owner that does not involve any clients (e.g., art, craftwork, caring for nursery stock or seedlings, etc.) would be allowed and any activities generating excessive noise or emissions would be regulated under nuisance laws. 2. Urban Agriculture and Farm Stands In doing research and public outreach for this project, staff identified two agricultural uses that may be more appropriately regulated separate from home occupations. While these uses can be compatible in residential zones under certain circumstances, they may also produce more impacts on surrounding residential character than other types of home occupations. As such, staff proposes to classify these as separate accessory uses rather than as home occupations. • Urban Agriculture. New accessory use proposed for R-10 and R-15 zones on lots at least one acre in size. Allows crop production and sales, with limits on site size, hours, days of operation, number of clients, and equipment use. Larger or more intensive uses could be allowed by conditional use permit (see pgs. 4-7 in Attachment 1 for draft code language). • Farm Stands. Already allowed in some zones; proposed amendments would clarify standards and permit them in all residential zones (see pgs. 6-7 in Attachment 1 for draft code language). RECOMMENDATION Provide direction to staff on: 1. Whether outdoor activity for home occupations should be prohibited or allowed in limited circumstances. 2. Whether to add Urban Agriculture and Farm Stands as accessory uses with proposed standards. ATTACHMENT 1. Draft Code Amendments, 9/8/2025 Staff reports and public meeting materials that were prepared for prior study sessions can be found by visiting the project web page for LU 25-0002. Use the link below to visit the City's "Project"page. https://www.ci.osweao.or.us/all-projects (Under "Search"enter LU 25-0002, then press "Enter") Respect. Excellence. Trust. Service 503-635-0215 380 A AVENUE PO BOX 369 LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97034 WWW.LAKEOSWEGO.CITY ATTACHMENT 1 Draft 09/08/2025 LOC 50.03.004 Accessory Structures and Uses 1. Accessory Uses a. General Standards /// b. Standards for Specific Uses i. Farm Stand. As an accessory use, a farm stand is limited to one per site with a maximum size of 800 sq. ft.floor area. Commentary:The specific use standard for Farm Stands is proposed to be edited for clarity and ease of reading. ii. Home Occupation.There are three types of home occupations: Type A.A home occupation where a portion of the home is used to operate a business but no customers come to the site. A Type A home occupation may also involve a home that is used as a business address, but is not used for business operations. Type B. A home occupation where a portion of the home is used to operate a business and customers may come to the site. Type C. A short-term rental, as defined in LOC 50.10.003.2. Commentary: Home occupations are proposed to be categorized into three different types.This will make it easier for the City to apply additional rules to home occupations that have a greater impact on the surrounding neighborhood. It also makes it clear that certain rules do not apply to short term rentals—and vice versa. A Type A,Type B, or Type C home occupation may be conducted where allowed by other provisions of this Code if the following conditions are continuously met Commentary:This standard is proposed to be removed because it uses vague, nebulous language that is difficult to enforce and for the public and home occupation owners to understand. It would be replaced by the new standards, which are intended to be clearer and more objective, provided in this section below. (1) A current and valid business license is maintained. (2) No persons other than family members who reside at the dwelling may be employed or otherwise work in the home occupation, except persons performing housekeeping, yard maintenance, or other domestic services for the dwelling where the business occurs. (3)No outdoor storage of goods or materials other than vegetation. Stockpiling mulch or yard debris is not permitted. Commentary: Language is proposed to be added here that clarifies the intent of this standard, which is to not permit outdoor piles of mulch or other yard debris even while outdoor storage of plants is allowed. LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 1 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 (4) Any substance listed or described as hazardous in ORS Chapter 453 (Hazardous Substances) is not permitted at the property where the business occurs, except that consumer quantities are allowed. Consumer quantities of hazardous substances are packaged and distributed in a form intended or suitable for sale through retail sales outlets for consumption by individuals for purposes of personal care and household use. Commentary:This standard would make it clear that hazardous substance limitations apply to home occupation uses, creating a path for code enforcement to use when they encounter hazardous materials. While hazardous substances are regulated at the state level, adding a regulation to the City's home occupation standards would make it possible to prohibit a home occupation use from storing and using an amount of a hazardous substance that is greater than the typical household limit. (5)The City's public nuisance rules (LOC Art. 34.08, LOC Art. 34.10) apply to home occupations, and any complaints of a public nuisance related to a home occupation shall be treated the same as any other public nuisance. Commentary:This standard is proposed to be added to clarify that the City's existing public nuisance rules apply to home occupations.This was seen as a preferable option by the Planning Commission and staff when compared with creating new nuisance rules specifically for home occupations. By adding language to the home occupation standards, it is made clear to home occupation operators that they must comply with nuisance rules. (6) No more than 25%of the aggregate floor area on the lot is devoted to nonresidential use, except that an entire dwelling unit or portion thereof may be used for short-term rental lodging; an accessory structure may be used, provided the provisions of this subsection are met. (7) A maximum of one vehicle with visible, exterior company or commercial markings is permitted to park off-site,within 300 feet of the property where the business occurs. Commentary:This regulation would make it so that any number of commercial vehicles are permitted as long as they can be legally parked on the property where the home occupation is located. Otherwise, each home occupation business would be permitted to have one vehicle parked off the property, within 300 feet.An enforcement distance of 300 feet is proposed in the code because it is a commonly used distance for noticing, and therefore generally accepted as a way to define the area of influence for a property's activity. (8) Marijuana facilities, psilocybin service centers, and psilocybin production are prohibited. (9) A Type B home occupation shall meet the following additional standards: (a)The number of persons visiting the home at the same time, as clients or customers of the business and including persons accompanying clients or customers, shall not exceed eight. LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 2 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 Commentary:This provision would be added to address the impacts that are associated with client visitation. Code enforcement staff noted that a limitation based on a period of time, such as a limitation of 8 clients per day or 2 clients per hour,would be difficult to enforce, and that a limitation based on total number of clients at one time would be more enforceable. Outdoor Activity—Option 1(b) Outdoor activities involving clients or customers are not permitted, except limited outdoor activity as provided below: (i) Instructional or demonstration uses directly led by the home occupation operator such as art, gardening, or yoga classes, limited to eight clients or participants at one time are permitted. No more than two outdoor sessions are permitted per day, and no more than six outdoor sessions are permitted per week. Outdoor business activities may only occur between 9:00 am and 7:00 pm. No outdoor business activity is permitted on public holidays. (ii) Use of outdoor space for events, rentals, parties, weddings, performances, markets, or other commercial gatherings is prohibited. Commentary:Option 1 for this subsection (b) would disallow outdoor activity associated with a home occupation business, with some exceptions.The language is written specifically to only apply to outdoor activity that includes clients, which would allow business operators to work alone outside. Lower impact client activities, like teaching a workout or gardening class, are proposed to be permitted with some limitations on the number of clients permitted at once,the number of classes allowed over a period of time, and the time of day/days of the week. A limitation on Sunday operations was removed at the direction of the Planning Commission. Higher impact activities, in particular rental of outdoor areas, are specifically called out as being prohibited to make it clear that this allowance does not apply to them.This option aligns with feedback from the Planning Commission and Neighborhood Chairs Committee to allow flexibility for lower impact outdoor activities associated with a home occupation. Outdoor Activity—Option 2 (b) Outdoor activities associated with the business and involving clients or customers are not permitted. Commentary:Option 2 for subsection (b)would disallow outdoor activity associated with a home occupation business entirely.This aligns with the direction provided by the City Council at the work session conducted on April 1, 2025.Again, the prohibition would only apply to outdoor activity that involves clients, allowing business owners to work outside by themselves. (10)Type C Home Occupations, short-term rentals, shall meet the following additional standards: LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 3 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 (a)A person who owns a lot containing a short-term rental (primary or secondary dwelling unit) must maintain their primary residence on the lot.The owner is not required to be on the lot when the dwelling is rented. (b) No other commercial uses are allowed in conjunction with or accessory to a short-term rental.The short-term rental shall not be marketed or used for group events such as weddings, classes, or similar events, for example. Commentary:These are existing standards that apply only to short term rentals.Short term rentals would be newly classified as "Type C" home occupations to match the new classification scheme.A slight edit is proposed to standard (10)(b)to make it clear that this is not just a limitation on marketing but also on the use of the property. The following uses are exempt from the regulations of this section, except that a business license is still required: (a) Registered or certified family child care homes that also meet the State's requirements of ORS 329A, and (b) Licensed adult foster homes that also meet the State's requirements of OAR 309-040-0330. Commentary:State law limits the ability of localities to apply additional use regulations to child care homes and licensed adult foster homes in residential zones.This regulation makes it clear to the public and home occupation operators that child care homes and licensed adult foster homes are exempt from the use-specific regulations for home occupations. /// /// vii. Urban Agriculture. Urban agriculture is permitted under the following conditions: (1) The property must have a minimum lot size of one acre. (2) The urban agriculture use shall have a maximum area of 20,000 square feet or 35 percent of the area of the lot,whichever is less.The maximum area includes the area under cultivation,the area covered by any structures associated with food and/or beverage production, the compost pile, or any other area associated with the activities of the agriculture use. (3) On-site sales and serving are allowed, subject to the following additional standards: (a) Sales and serving are allowed only between 7:00 am and 8:00 pm. (b) Sales and serving are allowed up to 70 days in each calendar year. (c) A maximum of 30 clients, including persons accompanying clients, are permitted on the property at the same time. (4) Use of motorized equipment is only allowed between 7:00 am and 8:00 pm. LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 4 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 (5) An urban agriculture use that does not comply with the standards of this section may be permitted as a conditional use, pursuant to LOC 50.07.005. Commentary: "Urban agriculture"would be a new land use that would be permitted (sometimes on a conditional basis) as an accessory use in the R-10 and R-15 zones.The above standards would be new specific use regulations that would apply to Urban Agriculture.They are based on the City of Portland's regulation for a similar use, Market Gardens. A minimum lot size of one acre has been added to assure adequate area to accommodate the use with fewer impacts to surrounding properties.The maximum area allowed for agricultural use would be 20,000 square feet(which is based on Portland's maximum area for Market Gardens in the R-10 zone) or 35 percent of the area of the lot.This is intended to limit the lot coverage of the use on a property and minimize the impact on neighborhood residential character. Food sales and serving/tastings are permitted. Hours of operation of food sales and serving, along with hours of operation for the use of motorized equipment, are limited to the same hours that a Community Garden can operate, 7 am—8 pm. Food sales and serving are limited to 70 days per calendar year, or slightly more than once per week,to preserve residential character.A maximum number of 30 clients is permitted at once to further help minimize disruption to the neighborhood while still accommodating gatherings of individuals for on-site sales and serving. A conditional use process is provided for property owners who wish to exceed these limitations with approval based on the applicant's ability to demonstrate with evidence that the use could be made to be reasonably compatible with surrounding uses. LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 5 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 LOC 50.10.003 Definitions 2. Definition of Terms. /// Farm Stand A temporary or permanent structure used for the sale of fresh produce and seasonal items, including flowers, holiday trees, and wreaths. /// Urban Agriculture A site where food and/or plants are grown to be sold, including crops that will be used to produce alcoholic or other beverages.An area for serving or tasting can be included.The food and/or plants may be sold directly to consumers, restaurants, stores, or other buyers, or at markets. Heavy manufacturing is not allowed as part of this use. Commentary:A new definition would be added for a land use called "Urban Agriculture."This definition is partly based on the City of Portland's definition for a use called Market Gardens. The intention is to allow for growing produce on a property, which can then be sold as raw produce or as a food product derived from that produce, on site or to off-site customers. An area for serving food or providing tastings is specifically allowed.This definition was modified to allow for the cultivation of plants based on direction from the Planning Commission. /// LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 6 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 LOC 50.03.002 Use Table 2. Residential Land Use Table. /// TABLE 50.03.002-1:RESIDENTIAL DISTRICTS USE TABLE P=Permitted Use I Blank=Not Permitted I C=Conditional Use I A=Accessory Use [x]Table notes located at the end of the table Use Use Type Residential Use-Specific Category Standards R-15 R-10 R-7.5 R-6 R-5 I R-DD R-W R-3[3] R-2 R-0[3][4] ACCESSORY USES • Accessory Community A A A A A A A A A A §50.03.003.6.j Uses garden Farm stand A A A A A A A A A A §50.03.004.1.b.i Urban A/C A/C §50.03.004.1.b.vii agriculture Home A A A A A A A A A A §50.03.004.1.b.ii occupation Short-term A A A A A A A A A A §50.03.004.1.b.ii rental lodging Large animals A A §50.03.004.1.b.iii kept for owner's personal use Small animals A A A A A A A A A A kept for owner's personal use[2] Accessory A A A A A A A A A A §50.03.004.1.b.vi dwelling unit Commentary: Farm Stands would become permitted as an accessory use in all residential districts and "Urban Agriculture" would become permitted as an accessory use in the lowest density residential districts, R-10 and R-15. Urban Agriculture would sometimes require a conditional use approval, which is why a status of"A/C" is provided.The Planning Commission provided direction that Farm Stands should be permitted in all residential zones because it was their opinion that the use would be low impact, especially with the existing 800-square foot area limitation. LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 7 OF 8 Draft 09/08/2025 /// LU 25-0002 ATTACHMENT 1/PAGE 8 OF 8