HomeMy WebLinkAboutAgenda Item - 2026-07-08 - Number Presentation - Presentation - Voter Analysis2
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LAKE OSWEGO PUBLIC LIBRARY · ADVISORY BOARD BRIEFING
Insights from the
Voting Data
What 26 years of Lake Oswego voting data teaches us about
language, framing, and how to position the library's next chapter.
Source analysis: EH measure voting history 2000–2026 · Precinct-level returns · Community attitude surveys
THE STARTING POINT
The data analysis left me curious.
With ballot outcomes ranging from 41–83% yes, what actually drives whether a measure passes or fails?
My hypothesis was around the impact of these six factors.
Naming conventions
Passed measures name exact buildings —
'Lakeridge Middle,' 'South Shore Fire Station.'
Failed ones use categories.
The school-district tie
LOSD's three straight wins share our voter
universe. What transfers — and does their
endorsement move library voters?
City sentiment
Gov't-trust scores hit their 25-year low in
2010–13 — exactly when the last library bond
failed.
Tax & cost framing
'Rate stays the same' vs. 'new tax' produces
different voters. How much of the outcome is
the money story?
Safety vs. amenity language
Structural-failure framing keeps winning;
modernization framing keeps struggling. Is that
causal here?
Election timing
Generals vs. May specials vs. single-item
Novembers assemble different electorates.
Which one is ours?
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 02
WHAT THE DATASET SHOWS · 142 MEASURES TRACKED, 2000–2026
Lake Oswego says yes when the construct is there.
11 of 15
Bonds LO voted in favor of
Per the file’s summary pivot, all levels. The
no-votes cluster in specific conditions — not
random rejection.
13 of 14
Levies LO voted in favor of
Per the file’s summary pivot. Operating levies
with clear purpose almost never lose LO
voters.
+15 / +31
Avg. margin: bonds vs. levies
LO's average levy margin (+31 pts) doubles its
bond margin (+15 pts). Instrument matters.
The money-measure failures, all of them:
2008 West End Building refinance 41.5% Controversial purchase, trust-crisis era.
2012 Library bond 42.3% Amenity framing, new tax, bundled w/ urban renewal, presidential general. Every headwind at once.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 03
THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT FINDING IN THE DATA
Nov ‘12 came as close to a controlled test as we get.
Two city bonds. Same ballot. Same voters. Same low-trust environment. One passed, one failed — a 9.5-point gap on
identical voters, with measure construct the clearest differentiator (size and project type also differed).
MEASURE 3-405 · LIBRARY
42.3%FAILED
•$14M · net new tax
•“Modern library” amenity framing
•Bundled with North Anchor urban renewal
•Only 1 of 10 precincts voted yes
MEASURE 3-406 · BOONES FERRY RD
51.8%PASSED
•$5M · smaller, defined ask
•Safety + traffic-flow framing
•Named road, named village center plan
•6 of 10 precincts voted yes
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 04
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SECTION ONE
Language & framing:
what the research says
Peer-reviewed findings that map directly onto Lake Oswego's own
outcomes.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 05
LANGUAGE & FRAMING · THE EVIDENCE BASE
Framing moves votes more than facts do.
33% → 60%
The same tax, framed two ways
Support nearly doubled when a tax was described as 'one cent per dollar'
vs. 'a 22% increase' — identical cost, different words. (Rossier, Social
Science Quarterly 2021)
3–5×
'No' arguments outpunch 'yes'
Opposition cues cut support by 9–24 points; support cues moved it under 1
point. Construct must close off paths to 'no' — enthusiasm alone can't win.
(Dyck & Pearson-Merkowitz 2021)
Specifics win
Named fixes beat 'new construction'
Voters reward HVAC, seismic, and named-building repairs; they discount
vague building promises. Specificity reduces uncertainty. (Boyson & Liu,
Brookings 2024)
−4.4 pts
Local press endorsement effect
Newspaper endorsements measurably cut 'no' votes across 20 years of
measures — enough to flip a close race. The LO Review is a real strategic
factor. (Fahey et al. 2018)
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 06
LANGUAGE & FRAMING · APPLIED TO OUR RECORD
The frame predicts the outcome. Ballots confirmed.
Safety / seismic / end-of-life PASSED — every time LOSD '17 · '21 · '25, Fire Station '26
Tax-neutral / rate-hold PASSED — every time Parks '19, School '25, Zoo '24 regional
Nature / open space Passed with a money anchor Parks '19 leaned on 'same rate as maturing bonds'
Amenity / modernization Struggled or failed Library '12 (42%) · Fiber broadband '16 (46%)
Controversy-linked asks Failed WEB refinance '08 (41.5%) — purchase baggage
carried the vote
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 07
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SECTION TWO
Our elections, electorates
& sentiment in context
Precinct returns, trust cycles, and the trajectory that changes our odds.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 08
CONTEXT · TRUST CYCLES AND MONEY MEASURES
Quality of life never moved. Government trust did.
Money measures moved with it.
2000–2008
HIGH TRUST
Gov't sat 3.6–3.8 / 5
School bond '00 (58.8%) and
Parks bond '02 (57.6%) pass
comfortably
2008–2013
TRUST TROUGH
Only sub-50% period in 25 yrs
WEB '08 (41.5%) · Library '12
(42.3%) fail — yet school levies
still passed in the same window.
Construct, not mood, decided.
2015–2019
RECOVERY
Satisfaction rebuilding
LOSD Phase 1 '17 (60.8%) ·
Parks '19 (62.0%) — construct
quality returns yes votes
2021–2026
ALL-TIME HIGH
97% QoL · 72% right direction
School '25 (72.4%) · Fire Station
'26 (68.9%) — strongest money
margins ever recorded
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 09
CONTEXT · THE COMPOUNDING TRUST CURVE
Every well-built money measure since 2017 has
raised the ceiling.
50% — passage
42.3%
'12 Library
60.8%
'17 LOSD P1
62%
'19 Parks
72.4%
'25 School
68.9%
'26 Fire Stn
Yes-ceiling is rising, not fatiguing. Each delivered project made the next ask easier. The library enters the strongest yes-environment in
the dataset — with zero track record of its own. Construct has to carry that gap.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 10
CONTEXT · THE FRESHEST EVIDENCE WE HAVE
The fire station proved it in real time.
JULY 2025 · FM3 PRE-POLL
54%
Council reaction: “not as big of a home run as it could be.”
→
MAY 2026 · ACTUAL RESULT (3-635)
68.9%
+15 points over the poll. In favor in 9 of the 10 historical
precincts (the one exception cast just 41 ballots).
What closed the gap: a named 1971 building with documented seismic deficiencies · a 'community safety' ballot title · a
defined $0.19/$1,000 cost · a focused May election. The same levers the library can pull and the Council itself called this
campaign a template.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 11
CONTEXT · WHERE THE VOTES LIVE
The geography of skepticism shrinks when the
construct improves.
2012 LIBRARY
1 / 10
precincts in favor
Only P154 said yes (50.8%). Southern
precincts 155–160 all landed under 43%.
2019 PARKS
10 / 10
precincts in favor
Tax-neutral construct flipped every precinct —
weakest was still 59%.
2026 FIRE STATION
9 / 10
precincts in favor
Range 56–79% across the ten historical
precincts (10 of 11 counting new precinct
161); sole no-precinct cast only 41 ballots.
P156 led at 78.8%.
Planning implication: the 2012 no-vote wasn't uniform — it concentrated south and west. Those same precincts now deliver 60–79% for
well-framed measures. They aren't opposed to spending; they were opposed to that construct. Site selection and outreach should treat
them as winnable, not written off.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 12
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SECTION THREE
Positioning the library
for what comes next
Applying what we learned.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 13
POSITIONING · THE HONEST SCORECARD
How to set ourselves up for success this time.
IN HAND TODAY
•Safety language — 2024 seismic study, documented
roof leaks, elevator failures
•Best trust environment on record — 97% QoL, 72%
right-direction
•A proven local playbook — LOSD ×3 and the fire
station template
•A precinct map showing former no-voters now voting
yes
STILL TO BUILD
•A locked site — the variable that undid 1974 and 2012
•A money story — tax-neutral or rate-hold structure
(URA analysis)
•Citizen bond oversight committee — before the ballot,
not after
•A named endorsement coalition, LOSD leadership
included
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 14
POSITIONING · THE SEQUENCE
What we can control.
1 Lead with the building, not the services
Roof leaks and seismic findings open every conversation. 'Replace
a failing building' is the frame that wins here.
2 Open the LOSD relationship now
Shared voter universe, three straight wins, an accountability model
to borrow. Partner early not late.
3 Propose a citizen bond advisory committee
The board can initiate this. It was part of every winning campaign's
construct; built before the ballot.
4 Get the tax-neutral analysis from Finance
Ask directly: what structure lets us hold the rate? Lake Grove URA
is the leading candidate. This shapes everything.
5 Press for site certainty before timing
Voters approve plans, not concepts. Both prior library setbacks
trace to site. Lock it, then schedule.
6 Target a focused special election
May or single-item November. The fire station and every LOSD win
used a motivated electorate; the general is where 2012 died.
LO LIBRARY ADVISORY BOARD · BALLOT RECORD BRIEFING 15
“The 2012 loss wasn't a verdict on libraries,
it was a measure doomed to fail that ran
in LO's lowest-trust years. Every
well-designed measure since has passed.
We now know exactly what wins here: name the building, lead with safety, holding the tax rate flat, add
citizen oversight, pick a focused election. The moment is right. The remaining work is building the measure
well before it goes on the ballot.
Lake Oswego Library Advisory Board · Ballot Record Briefing · Sources: EH voting history 2000–2026, Clackamas Co. Elections, LO community
surveys, published research